SIU Edwardsville
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.7#269
Expected Predictive Rating-3.6#231
Pace66.8#237
Improvement-0.8#240

Offense
Total Offense-5.3#324
First Shot-6.5#344
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#116
Layup/Dunks-3.6#304
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#143
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#131
Freethrows-4.8#361
Improvement-0.4#216

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#180
First Shot-1.6#225
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#82
Layups/Dunks+1.8#100
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#83
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#318
Freethrows-1.0#256
Improvement-0.4#213
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.4% 20.5% 11.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 71.6% 82.9% 63.3%
.500 or above in Conference 75.6% 86.2% 67.6%
Conference Champion 17.1% 26.0% 10.4%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 1.3% 4.8%
First Four6.9% 8.3% 5.8%
First Round11.9% 16.2% 8.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southeast Missouri St. (Away) - 42.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 00 - 2
Quad 31 - 11 - 4
Quad 415 - 1016 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 45   @ Indiana L 61-80 5%     0 - 1 -5.4 -8.1 +3.5
  Nov 08, 2024 16   @ Illinois L 58-90 2%     0 - 2 -13.8 -4.4 -10.2
  Nov 12, 2024 150   @ Indiana St. W 77-72 20%     1 - 2 +8.3 +2.4 +5.9
  Nov 15, 2024 296   @ Western Michigan W 79-60 44%     2 - 2 +14.8 +6.5 +9.1
  Nov 16, 2024 350   Canisius W 76-58 74%     3 - 2 +5.7 -1.3 +7.7
  Nov 19, 2024 333   @ Green Bay L 57-82 56%     3 - 3 -32.2 -21.6 -10.2
  Nov 29, 2024 188   North Florida L 73-78 44%     3 - 4 -9.3 -7.9 -1.2
  Dec 08, 2024 288   Ball St. W 82-69 66%     4 - 4 +3.2 +9.5 -5.4
  Dec 19, 2024 243   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 56-60 35%     4 - 5 0 - 1 -5.7 -11.9 +6.0
  Dec 21, 2024 289   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 68-70 43%    
  Jan 02, 2025 331   Western Illinois W 69-62 75%    
  Jan 04, 2025 351   Lindenwood W 73-63 81%    
  Jan 07, 2025 327   @ Eastern Illinois W 67-66 53%    
  Jan 11, 2025 328   Tennessee Tech W 73-66 74%    
  Jan 16, 2025 316   @ Tennessee St. L 71-72 50%    
  Jan 18, 2025 324   @ Tennessee Martin W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 23, 2025 282   Southern Indiana W 71-67 64%    
  Jan 25, 2025 281   Morehead St. W 68-64 64%    
  Jan 30, 2025 351   @ Lindenwood W 70-66 63%    
  Feb 01, 2025 331   @ Western Illinois W 66-65 55%    
  Feb 04, 2025 327   Eastern Illinois W 70-63 73%    
  Feb 06, 2025 328   @ Tennessee Tech W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 13, 2025 324   Tennessee Martin W 72-65 72%    
  Feb 15, 2025 316   Tennessee St. W 75-69 71%    
  Feb 20, 2025 281   @ Morehead St. L 65-67 43%    
  Feb 22, 2025 282   @ Southern Indiana L 68-70 43%    
  Feb 27, 2025 289   Southeast Missouri St. W 71-67 64%    
  Mar 01, 2025 243   Arkansas Little Rock W 67-65 57%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.8 4.7 3.9 2.1 0.8 0.2 17.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.5 5.2 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 16.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.2 5.7 4.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 14.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 5.5 4.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.3 4.2 0.9 0.0 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.0 4.1 0.9 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.6 1.2 0.0 6.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 2.9 1.4 0.1 5.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 1.4 0.2 4.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.6 4.1 6.7 8.9 11.4 12.9 13.3 12.7 10.4 7.3 4.5 2.2 0.8 0.2 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 99.3% 0.8    0.8 0.0
17-3 95.3% 2.1    1.8 0.2 0.0
16-4 86.4% 3.9    3.0 0.8 0.0
15-5 64.3% 4.7    2.9 1.5 0.2 0.0
14-6 36.5% 3.8    1.5 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-7 11.3% 1.4    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.1% 17.1 10.4 4.9 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.2% 64.4% 64.4% 12.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.8% 44.7% 44.7% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5
17-3 2.2% 42.4% 42.4% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 1.3
16-4 4.5% 41.0% 41.0% 15.2 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.6 2.6
15-5 7.3% 37.1% 37.1% 15.6 0.1 0.9 1.7 4.6
14-6 10.4% 28.9% 28.9% 15.9 0.0 0.4 2.6 7.4
13-7 12.7% 20.4% 20.4% 15.9 0.2 2.4 10.1
12-8 13.3% 12.8% 12.8% 16.0 0.1 1.7 11.6
11-9 12.9% 8.2% 8.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1 11.8
10-10 11.4% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.6 10.7
9-11 8.9% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.4 8.5
8-12 6.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 6.6
7-13 4.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.1
6-14 2.6% 2.6
5-15 1.3% 1.3
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.4% 15.4% 0.0% 15.6 0.1 0.2 0.7 3.1 11.3 84.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.6 48.2 44.6 7.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0%