SIU Edwardsville
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.0#234
Expected Predictive Rating-3.6#225
Pace65.7#248
Improvement+2.7#75

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#284
First Shot-5.0#313
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#120
Layup/Dunks-2.2#266
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#164
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#133
Freethrows-4.3#359
Improvement+2.3#76

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#176
First Shot-0.3#193
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#146
Layups/Dunks+2.0#93
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#122
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#291
Freethrows-0.4#213
Improvement+0.4#169
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.7% 29.6% 23.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 37.8% 47.7% 15.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four10.8% 9.6% 13.5%
First Round22.5% 25.3% 16.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Indiana (Away) - 69.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 00 - 2
Quad 32 - 22 - 4
Quad 417 - 719 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 57   @ Indiana L 61-80 6%     0 - 1 -5.9 -7.3 +2.1
  Nov 08, 2024 18   @ Illinois L 58-90 3%     0 - 2 -13.3 -5.4 -8.8
  Nov 12, 2024 203   @ Indiana St. W 77-72 34%     1 - 2 +5.3 +2.0 +3.3
  Nov 15, 2024 302   @ Western Michigan W 79-60 55%     2 - 2 +13.6 +6.8 +7.6
  Nov 16, 2024 354   Canisius W 76-58 82%     3 - 2 +4.4 -3.0 +8.2
  Nov 19, 2024 337   @ Green Bay L 57-82 68%     3 - 3 -33.9 -21.7 -11.8
  Nov 29, 2024 266   North Florida L 73-78 66%     3 - 4 -13.1 -9.5 -3.5
  Dec 08, 2024 261   Ball St. W 82-69 65%     4 - 4 +5.0 +8.7 -2.8
  Dec 19, 2024 233   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 56-60 40%     4 - 5 0 - 1 -5.4 -11.2 +5.6
  Dec 21, 2024 217   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 64-80 37%     4 - 6 0 - 2 -16.6 -5.4 -11.7
  Jan 02, 2025 351   Western Illinois W 77-66 86%     5 - 6 1 - 2 -4.5 +12.1 -14.4
  Jan 04, 2025 335   Lindenwood W 58-47 82%     6 - 6 2 - 2 -2.5 -17.2 +15.0
  Jan 07, 2025 338   @ Eastern Illinois W 60-57 68%     7 - 6 3 - 2 -5.9 -5.6 +0.0
  Jan 11, 2025 308   Tennessee Tech W 67-59 75%     8 - 6 4 - 2 -3.0 -9.3 +6.5
  Jan 16, 2025 269   @ Tennessee St. W 87-80 2OT 47%     9 - 6 5 - 2 +3.9 +0.0 +2.8
  Jan 18, 2025 306   @ Tennessee Martin L 82-85 57%     9 - 7 5 - 3 -8.8 +12.7 -21.7
  Jan 23, 2025 343   Southern Indiana W 82-76 84%     10 - 7 6 - 3 -8.8 +2.8 -11.6
  Jan 25, 2025 329   Morehead St. W 65-54 80%     11 - 7 7 - 3 -1.9 -7.6 +6.7
  Jan 30, 2025 335   @ Lindenwood L 63-65 67%     11 - 8 7 - 4 -10.4 -11.6 +1.2
  Feb 01, 2025 351   @ Western Illinois W 69-65 73%     12 - 8 8 - 4 -6.4 -0.8 -5.1
  Feb 04, 2025 338   Eastern Illinois W 66-41 83%     13 - 8 9 - 4 +11.0 -2.5 +16.1
  Feb 06, 2025 308   @ Tennessee Tech W 75-58 57%     14 - 8 10 - 4 +11.1 +1.6 +10.0
  Feb 13, 2025 306   Tennessee Martin L 71-76 75%     14 - 9 10 - 5 -15.9 -5.2 -10.8
  Feb 15, 2025 269   Tennessee St. W 84-72 66%     15 - 9 11 - 5 +3.8 +3.2 -0.1
  Feb 20, 2025 329   @ Morehead St. W 80-62 64%     16 - 9 12 - 5 +10.2 +13.3 -1.0
  Feb 22, 2025 343   @ Southern Indiana W 72-66 69%    
  Feb 27, 2025 217   Southeast Missouri St. W 70-68 58%    
  Mar 01, 2025 233   Arkansas Little Rock W 66-63 60%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 12.3 25.3 37.8 1st
2nd 0.1 14.8 30.8 45.7 2nd
3rd 3.9 10.8 14.7 3rd
4th 1.8 1.8 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 5.9 25.8 43.1 25.3 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 25.3    10.7 14.7
14-6 28.5% 12.3    0.9 7.8 3.5
13-7 0.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total 37.8% 37.8 11.5 22.5 3.7 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 25.3% 34.8% 34.8% 15.4 0.3 4.5 4.1 16.5
14-6 43.1% 30.3% 30.3% 15.9 0.0 1.5 11.5 30.0
13-7 25.8% 20.1% 20.1% 15.9 0.3 4.9 20.6
12-8 5.9% 10.7% 10.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6 5.2
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 27.7% 27.7% 0.0% 15.8 0.3 6.3 21.1 72.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.8% 100.0% 15.4 2.9 50.7 46.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 9.1%
Lose Out 2.0%