St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.9#345
Expected Predictive Rating-10.2#320
Pace68.3#194
Improvement-1.2#238

Offense
Total Offense-6.1#326
First Shot-3.2#274
After Offensive Rebound-2.9#330
Layup/Dunks-3.9#312
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#93
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#89
Freethrows-3.5#350
Improvement-0.3#197

Defense
Total Defense-5.8#335
First Shot-5.0#325
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#256
Layups/Dunks+0.4#153
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#272
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.1#353
Freethrows+1.5#75
Improvement-0.9#233
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.4% 6.8% 4.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 2.3% 4.6% 0.9%
.500 or above in Conference 41.6% 61.0% 30.4%
Conference Champion 1.7% 3.4% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 14.7% 5.0% 20.3%
First Four5.3% 6.5% 4.5%
First Round1.9% 2.5% 1.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wagner (Away) - 36.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 31 - 21 - 7
Quad 49 - 1110 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 78   @ Dayton L 57-87 3%     0 - 1 -20.0 -13.3 -6.4
  Nov 08, 2024 30   @ Clemson L 62-88 1%     0 - 2 -10.1 -4.9 -4.5
  Nov 10, 2024 252   @ Campbell W 65-64 18%     1 - 2 -1.4 -5.7 +4.3
  Nov 12, 2024 51   @ Penn St. L 62-92 2%     1 - 3 -16.7 -13.7 +1.0
  Nov 16, 2024 266   @ Mount St. Mary's L 58-66 20%     1 - 4 -11.2 -11.6 +0.2
  Nov 23, 2024 72   @ Georgetown L 65-82 3%     1 - 5 -6.5 -1.0 -5.3
  Nov 26, 2024 296   Lehigh W 88-78 44%     2 - 5 -0.4 +11.8 -12.1
  Dec 01, 2024 204   Radford L 70-79 25%     2 - 6 -13.9 +0.8 -15.6
  Dec 14, 2024 310   @ Niagara L 66-69 28%     2 - 7 -8.8 -3.0 -6.1
  Dec 17, 2024 25   @ Maryland L 57-111 1%     2 - 8 -36.5 -7.9 -27.7
  Dec 21, 2024 216   @ Robert Morris L 77-90 14%     2 - 9 -13.4 +0.8 -13.4
  Jan 03, 2025 230   Central Connecticut St. L 59-74 30%     2 - 10 0 - 1 -21.7 -8.8 -14.0
  Jan 05, 2025 312   Stonehill L 60-64 48%     2 - 11 0 - 2 -15.4 -11.4 -4.4
  Jan 10, 2025 359   Mercyhurst W 73-59 70%     3 - 11 1 - 2 -3.4 +2.8 -4.1
  Jan 12, 2025 328   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 75-71 34%     4 - 11 2 - 2 -3.7 -1.9 -1.7
  Jan 18, 2025 314   @ LIU Brooklyn L 51-64 28%     4 - 12 2 - 3 -18.9 -14.1 -6.7
  Jan 20, 2025 335   @ Wagner L 60-63 37%    
  Jan 24, 2025 314   LIU Brooklyn L 67-68 48%    
  Jan 26, 2025 335   Wagner W 63-61 59%    
  Jan 30, 2025 359   @ Mercyhurst L 68-69 49%    
  Feb 06, 2025 350   Le Moyne W 75-72 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 357   @ Chicago St. L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 13, 2025 312   @ Stonehill L 67-73 28%    
  Feb 15, 2025 230   @ Central Connecticut St. L 61-72 16%    
  Feb 20, 2025 350   @ Le Moyne L 72-74 41%    
  Feb 22, 2025 328   Fairleigh Dickinson W 77-76 54%    
  Mar 01, 2025 357   Chicago St. W 72-67 69%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 2.4 1.3 0.2 5.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.3 6.2 3.5 0.5 12.6 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 8.7 5.3 0.5 0.0 16.6 4th
5th 1.3 9.3 6.4 0.7 17.7 5th
6th 0.5 6.4 8.0 0.8 0.0 15.7 6th
7th 0.2 3.7 8.2 1.4 0.0 13.4 7th
8th 0.1 2.2 5.8 2.2 0.0 10.3 8th
9th 0.3 1.6 3.3 1.9 0.1 7.2 9th
Total 0.3 1.7 5.7 11.8 18.2 20.7 18.3 13.2 6.9 2.6 0.6 0.1 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1
12-4 71.7% 0.4    0.1 0.3 0.0
11-5 27.6% 0.7    0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0
10-6 6.5% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.1% 0.0 0.1
12-4 0.6% 21.7% 21.7% 16.0 0.1 0.5
11-5 2.6% 15.6% 15.6% 16.0 0.4 2.2
10-6 6.9% 10.9% 10.9% 16.0 0.8 6.2
9-7 13.2% 8.3% 8.3% 16.0 1.1 12.1
8-8 18.3% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 1.3 17.0
7-9 20.7% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 1.0 19.7
6-10 18.2% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.5 17.7
5-11 11.8% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 11.6
4-12 5.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.7
3-13 1.7% 1.7
2-14 0.3% 0.3
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.4 94.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%