IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Western Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-9.2	#326
Expected Predictive Rating	-6.6	#280

Pace	62.7	#337
Improvement	-1.2	#302

Offense
Total Offense	-5.7	#330

First Shot	-7.1	#346
After Offensive Rebound	+1.5	#98

Layup/Dunks	-10.2	#362
2 Pt Jumpshots	+9.1	#2
3 Pt Jumpshots	-2.6	#267
Freethrows	-3.5	#325

Improvement	+0.8	#75

Defense
Total Defense	-3.5	#293

First Shot	-4.9	#315
After Offensive Rebounds	+1.3	#97

Layups/Dunks	-4.1	#313
2 Pt Jumpshots	-1.9	#288
3 Pt Jumpshots	+2.4	#98
Freethrows	-1.2	#250

Improvement	-2.0	#349

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.1%	6.3%	3.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.9	15.8	15.9

.500 or above	28.3%	47.9%	24.3%
.500 or above in Conference	43.1%	56.4%	40.5%
Conference Champion	3.9%	6.2%	3.5%
Last Place in Conference	12.0%	6.8%	13.0%

First Four	2.9%	4.0%	2.7%
First Round	2.6%	4.4%	2.2%
Second Round	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: South Alabama (Away) - 16.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 3	1 - 4	1 - 5
Quad 4	11 - 12	12 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	250	@ San Jose St.	W	59-55	24%	1 - 0			+2.4	-5.9	+8.9
Nov 06, 2024	248	@ Pepperdine	L	64-77	23%	1 - 1			-14.4	-8.7	-6.1
Nov 13, 2024	251	Green Bay	L	73-87	44%	1 - 2			-21.7	-3.1	-19.0
Nov 16, 2024	340	Central Arkansas	W	63-61	70%	2 - 2			-12.7	-7.9	-4.5
Nov 19, 2024	119	@ Northern Iowa	L	56-82	8%	2 - 3			-19.7	-7.9	-14.8
Nov 26, 2024	198	@ South Alabama	L	62-72	17%
Nov 27, 2024	308	Incarnate Word	L	69-70	47%
Dec 14, 2024	239	@ South Dakota	L	68-76	23%
Dec 17, 2024	334	Tennessee Tech	W	67-63	65%
Dec 21, 2024	355	@ Lindenwood	W	68-66	56%
Jan 02, 2025	272	@ SIU Edwardsville	L	62-68	28%
Jan 04, 2025	315	@ Eastern Illinois	L	64-68	37%
Jan 09, 2025	301	Tennessee Martin	W	71-70	55%
Jan 11, 2025	296	Tennessee St.	W	69-68	54%
Jan 16, 2025	268	@ Morehead St.	L	59-66	28%
Jan 18, 2025	322	@ Southern Indiana	L	65-68	39%
Jan 23, 2025	205	Arkansas Little Rock	L	65-69	36%
Jan 25, 2025	320	Southeast Missouri St.	W	71-68	60%
Jan 30, 2025	315	Eastern Illinois	W	67-65	58%
Feb 01, 2025	272	SIU Edwardsville	L	64-65	48%
Feb 06, 2025	296	@ Tennessee St.	L	66-71	34%
Feb 08, 2025	301	@ Tennessee Martin	L	68-73	34%
Feb 13, 2025	322	Southern Indiana	W	68-65	60%
Feb 15, 2025	268	@ Morehead St.	L	59-66	29%
Feb 20, 2025	320	@ Southeast Missouri St.	L	68-71	39%
Feb 22, 2025	205	@ Arkansas Little Rock	L	62-72	20%
Feb 25, 2025	355	Lindenwood	W	71-63	75%
Feb 27, 2025	334	@ Tennessee Tech	L	64-66	44%
Projected Record						12 - 16	9 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.3	0.8	1.1	1.0	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0		3.9	1st
2nd												0.1	0.8	1.9	2.0	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.0				6.2	2nd
3rd											0.1	1.2	2.8	2.4	0.9	0.2	0.0						7.5	3rd
4th										0.1	1.4	3.7	3.2	0.9	0.1	0.0							9.3	4th
5th									0.0	1.1	4.3	3.8	1.0	0.1									10.3	5th
6th							0.0	0.0	1.0	4.3	4.4	1.1	0.1	0.0									10.9	6th
7th							0.1	1.0	4.1	4.8	1.3	0.1											11.4	7th
8th					0.0	0.1	1.0	3.8	4.6	1.7	0.1	0.0											11.3	8th
9th				0.0	0.2	1.4	3.7	4.2	1.8	0.2													11.5	9th
10th		0.0	0.1	0.5	1.8	3.5	3.0	1.2	0.1														10.3	10th
11th	0.0	0.3	1.0	1.9	2.0	1.5	0.6	0.1	0.0														7.4	11th

Total	0.0	0.3	1.1	2.4	4.0	6.6	8.5	10.3	11.7	12.1	11.6	9.9	7.8	5.6	3.8	2.3	1.3	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0			Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
18-2	97.4%	0.2		0.2	0.0
17-3	91.2%	0.5		0.4	0.1
16-4	74.7%	1.0		0.7	0.3	0.0
15-5	47.5%	1.1		0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0
14-6	21.8%	0.8		0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0
13-7	4.8%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.5%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	3.9%	3.9		2.1	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%																							0.0
19-1	0.0%																			0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
18-2	0.2%		48.7%	48.7%		14.7														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1
17-3	0.5%		40.0%	40.0%		15.3															0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3
16-4	1.3%		28.8%	28.8%		15.7															0.0	0.1	0.3	0.9
15-5	2.3%		25.7%	25.7%		15.9															0.0	0.1	0.5	1.7
14-6	3.8%		18.0%	18.0%		16.0																0.0	0.7	3.1
13-7	5.6%		11.8%	11.8%		16.0																0.0	0.6	4.9
12-8	7.8%		6.9%	6.9%		16.0																	0.5	7.3
11-9	9.9%		4.3%	4.3%		16.0																	0.4	9.5
10-10	11.6%		2.4%	2.4%		16.0																	0.3	11.3
9-11	12.1%		1.3%	1.3%		16.0																	0.2	11.9
8-12	11.7%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	11.6
7-13	10.3%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	10.2
6-14	8.5%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	8.5
5-15	6.6%																							6.6
4-16	4.0%																							4.0
3-17	2.4%																							2.4
2-18	1.1%																							1.1
1-19	0.3%																							0.3
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		4.1%	4.1%	0.0%	15.9														0.0	0.1	0.4	3.7	95.9		0.0%