Western Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.0#331
Expected Predictive Rating-6.0#272
Pace61.9#344
Improvement-0.5#220

Offense
Total Offense-5.0#316
First Shot-5.4#326
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#162
Layup/Dunks-9.3#363
2 Pt Jumpshots+8.2#2
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#229
Freethrows-2.4#308
Improvement+0.4#144

Defense
Total Defense-5.0#324
First Shot-2.5#260
After Offensive Rebounds-2.5#337
Layups/Dunks-4.7#333
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#264
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#82
Freethrows+0.5#149
Improvement-0.9#253
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 5.0% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 23.8% 33.9% 14.4%
.500 or above in Conference 39.7% 52.7% 27.6%
Conference Champion 4.1% 6.4% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 14.8% 6.3% 22.7%
First Four2.8% 3.7% 2.0%
First Round2.1% 3.0% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lindenwood (Away) - 48.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 32 - 32 - 4
Quad 410 - 1312 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 189   @ San Jose St. W 59-55 14%     1 - 0 +5.7 -5.2 +11.5
  Nov 06, 2024 237   @ Pepperdine L 64-77 20%     1 - 1 -14.1 -7.4 -7.1
  Nov 13, 2024 333   Green Bay L 73-87 62%     1 - 2 -27.2 -5.4 -22.3
  Nov 16, 2024 339   Central Arkansas W 63-61 66%     2 - 2 -12.3 -6.9 -5.2
  Nov 19, 2024 98   @ Northern Iowa L 56-82 5%     2 - 3 -17.5 -7.4 -13.1
  Nov 26, 2024 202   @ South Alabama W 64-63 15%     3 - 3 +2.2 +2.8 -0.5
  Nov 27, 2024 304   Incarnate Word L 75-86 41%     3 - 4 -18.7 -0.3 -19.1
  Dec 14, 2024 235   @ South Dakota L 66-89 20%     3 - 5 -24.1 -10.7 -14.0
  Dec 17, 2024 328   Tennessee Tech W 71-68 59%     4 - 5 1 - 0 -9.5 -1.3 -7.9
  Dec 21, 2024 351   @ Lindenwood L 67-68 48%    
  Jan 02, 2025 269   @ SIU Edwardsville L 62-69 25%    
  Jan 04, 2025 327   @ Eastern Illinois L 64-68 37%    
  Jan 09, 2025 324   Tennessee Martin W 69-67 58%    
  Jan 11, 2025 316   Tennessee St. W 72-70 56%    
  Jan 16, 2025 281   @ Morehead St. L 63-69 28%    
  Jan 18, 2025 282   @ Southern Indiana L 66-72 28%    
  Jan 23, 2025 243   Arkansas Little Rock L 64-66 41%    
  Jan 25, 2025 289   Southeast Missouri St. L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 30, 2025 327   Eastern Illinois W 67-65 59%    
  Feb 01, 2025 269   SIU Edwardsville L 65-66 45%    
  Feb 06, 2025 316   @ Tennessee St. L 69-73 35%    
  Feb 08, 2025 324   @ Tennessee Martin L 66-70 37%    
  Feb 13, 2025 282   Southern Indiana L 68-69 49%    
  Feb 15, 2025 281   @ Morehead St. L 63-69 28%    
  Feb 20, 2025 289   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 65-71 29%    
  Feb 22, 2025 243   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 61-69 23%    
  Feb 25, 2025 351   Lindenwood W 70-65 69%    
  Feb 27, 2025 328   @ Tennessee Tech L 67-71 37%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 3.1 1.8 0.4 0.0 7.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 4.0 2.2 0.4 0.0 8.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.3 3.1 0.6 0.0 9.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.3 4.6 0.9 0.0 10.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.8 5.4 1.4 0.1 11.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.3 5.7 2.2 0.1 12.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 3.0 5.3 2.6 0.2 11.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.2 4.4 2.5 0.3 0.0 11.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.5 2.7 1.3 0.2 9.0 11th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.6 6.7 9.3 12.0 13.1 13.1 12.0 9.7 7.3 5.1 2.9 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 98.6% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-4 87.7% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 70.8% 1.2    0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 38.5% 1.1    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-7 12.0% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 2.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.1% 4.1 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 28.3% 28.3% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.3% 28.8% 28.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-4 0.7% 32.1% 32.1% 15.8 0.1 0.2 0.5
15-5 1.7% 25.6% 25.6% 15.9 0.0 0.4 1.3
14-6 2.9% 20.3% 20.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6 2.3
13-7 5.1% 13.6% 13.6% 16.0 0.0 0.7 4.4
12-8 7.3% 7.9% 7.9% 16.0 0.0 0.6 6.7
11-9 9.7% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.4 9.3
10-10 12.0% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.3 11.7
9-11 13.1% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 12.9
8-12 13.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 13.0
7-13 12.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.9
6-14 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.3
5-15 6.7% 6.7
4-16 3.6% 3.6
3-17 1.8% 1.8
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.5 96.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%