Arkansas Little Rock
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.3#247
Expected Predictive Rating-2.3#218
Pace71.0#122
Improvement+1.1#62

Offense
Total Offense-2.1#233
First Shot+0.1#172
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#298
Layup/Dunks-1.3#231
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#65
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#228
Freethrows+0.3#166
Improvement+0.6#89

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#242
First Shot+3.6#78
After Offensive Rebounds-5.7#359
Layups/Dunks+9.0#6
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#61
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#325
Freethrows-2.5#307
Improvement+0.5#115
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.0% 28.4% 20.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 71.9% 86.7% 67.6%
.500 or above in Conference 84.2% 90.5% 82.3%
Conference Champion 30.4% 38.9% 27.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 0.7% 2.1%
First Four7.7% 7.2% 7.8%
First Round18.2% 25.1% 16.2%
Second Round0.5% 0.9% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulsa (Away) - 22.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 31 - 6
Quad 416 - 717 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 193   @ Winthrop L 67-82 29%     0 - 1 -13.5 -11.4 -0.5
  Nov 12, 2024 112   @ Arkansas St. L 63-80 15%     0 - 2 -10.1 -2.5 -8.4
  Nov 16, 2024 278   @ Texas San Antonio W 81-64 45%     1 - 2 +14.0 +3.0 +10.5
  Nov 20, 2024 147   @ Tulsa L 74-82 22%    
  Nov 22, 2024 27   @ Arkansas L 65-86 3%    
  Nov 25, 2024 26   @ Illinois L 66-87 3%    
  Nov 27, 2024 354   Maryland Eastern Shore W 78-65 88%    
  Dec 04, 2024 340   Central Arkansas W 79-69 83%    
  Dec 15, 2024 157   Illinois-Chicago L 77-78 46%    
  Dec 19, 2024 269   SIU Edwardsville W 72-68 65%    
  Dec 21, 2024 315   Eastern Illinois W 75-68 74%    
  Jan 02, 2025 302   @ Tennessee Martin W 77-76 51%    
  Jan 04, 2025 297   @ Tennessee St. L 74-75 49%    
  Jan 09, 2025 279   Morehead St. W 71-66 66%    
  Jan 11, 2025 323   Southern Indiana W 76-68 75%    
  Jan 14, 2025 322   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 76-74 56%    
  Jan 18, 2025 332   @ Tennessee Tech W 72-69 61%    
  Jan 23, 2025 325   @ Western Illinois W 69-67 57%    
  Jan 25, 2025 355   @ Lindenwood W 76-69 72%    
  Jan 30, 2025 297   Tennessee St. W 77-71 70%    
  Feb 01, 2025 302   Tennessee Martin W 80-74 70%    
  Feb 06, 2025 323   @ Southern Indiana W 73-71 56%    
  Feb 08, 2025 279   @ Morehead St. L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 11, 2025 322   Southeast Missouri St. W 79-71 75%    
  Feb 13, 2025 332   Tennessee Tech W 75-66 78%    
  Feb 20, 2025 355   Lindenwood W 79-66 86%    
  Feb 22, 2025 325   Western Illinois W 72-64 75%    
  Feb 27, 2025 315   @ Eastern Illinois W 72-71 54%    
  Mar 01, 2025 269   @ SIU Edwardsville L 69-71 44%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 3.4 6.2 7.4 6.1 3.9 1.9 0.5 30.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.5 5.9 4.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 18.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 4.3 4.6 2.2 0.5 0.0 12.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.6 4.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.9 3.5 1.2 0.1 8.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.5 1.0 0.1 5.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 1.0 0.1 3.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.7 0.1 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.7 4.0 5.9 7.7 9.4 11.1 11.8 11.7 10.8 9.0 6.4 3.9 1.9 0.5 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 1.9    1.9 0.0
18-2 99.2% 3.9    3.7 0.2
17-3 94.4% 6.1    5.4 0.7 0.0
16-4 82.2% 7.4    5.6 1.6 0.1
15-5 57.5% 6.2    3.6 2.2 0.4 0.0
14-6 28.8% 3.4    1.1 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-7 8.9% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 30.4% 30.4 21.8 6.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 65.8% 65.8% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
19-1 1.9% 60.1% 60.1% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.7
18-2 3.9% 53.9% 53.9% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.2 1.8
17-3 6.4% 48.8% 48.8% 15.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 0.8 3.3
16-4 9.0% 41.3% 41.3% 15.4 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.8 5.3
15-5 10.8% 34.6% 34.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.7 7.1
14-6 11.7% 27.5% 27.5% 15.9 0.0 0.3 2.8 8.5
13-7 11.8% 18.1% 18.1% 15.9 0.1 2.0 9.6
12-8 11.1% 10.9% 10.9% 16.0 0.0 1.2 9.9
11-9 9.4% 7.8% 7.8% 16.0 0.0 0.7 8.7
10-10 7.7% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.3 7.4
9-11 5.9% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.2 5.8
8-12 4.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 4.0
7-13 2.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.7
6-14 1.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.6
5-15 0.9% 0.9
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 22.0% 22.0% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.4 5.8 12.9 78.0 0.0%