Bucknell
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.4#231
Expected Predictive Rating+1.3#174
Pace69.7#168
Improvement-2.3#346

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#260
First Shot-2.1#245
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#228
Layup/Dunks+0.7#149
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#314
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#188
Freethrows+0.0#191
Improvement-0.7#281

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#191
First Shot+0.2#164
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#241
Layups/Dunks+0.3#168
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#311
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#240
Freethrows+3.9#22
Improvement-1.6#329
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.7% 18.7% 13.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.4
.500 or above 71.1% 79.7% 56.5%
.500 or above in Conference 79.3% 83.5% 72.3%
Conference Champion 22.0% 25.1% 16.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 2.1% 4.0%
First Four3.7% 3.3% 4.4%
First Round14.8% 17.0% 11.1%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rider (Home) - 62.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 32 - 33 - 7
Quad 416 - 818 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 216   @ Delaware W 85-73 35%     1 - 0 +12.4 +4.4 +6.8
  Nov 07, 2024 322   @ Southern Indiana W 75-69 OT 60%     2 - 0 +0.0 -3.3 +3.0
  Nov 09, 2024 10   @ Kentucky L 72-100 2%     2 - 1 -7.8 -0.8 -3.9
  Nov 13, 2024 281   Mount St. Mary's L 89-93 2OT 71%     2 - 2 -13.1 -2.4 -10.0
  Nov 16, 2024 197   Richmond W 80-76 2OT 56%     3 - 2 -0.9 -7.0 +5.4
  Nov 21, 2024 361   NJIT W 81-64 90%     4 - 2 -0.8 +0.7 -1.5
  Nov 23, 2024 239   Rider W 73-69 63%    
  Nov 27, 2024 27   @ Maryland L 60-79 4%    
  Nov 30, 2024 307   Siena W 69-64 67%    
  Dec 04, 2024 115   St. Bonaventure L 67-71 36%    
  Dec 08, 2024 234   @ Radford L 69-72 40%    
  Dec 21, 2024 1   @ Gonzaga L 62-91 0.3%   
  Dec 28, 2024 90   @ Syracuse L 70-82 14%    
  Jan 02, 2025 283   @ Lehigh L 73-74 50%    
  Jan 05, 2025 183   Colgate W 68-67 53%    
  Jan 08, 2025 244   Lafayette W 69-65 63%    
  Jan 11, 2025 263   @ American L 67-68 46%    
  Jan 15, 2025 315   Holy Cross W 76-68 77%    
  Jan 18, 2025 310   Navy W 75-67 76%    
  Jan 20, 2025 183   @ Colgate L 65-70 33%    
  Jan 25, 2025 288   @ Boston University L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 29, 2025 336   Loyola Maryland W 73-63 82%    
  Feb 01, 2025 310   @ Navy W 72-70 58%    
  Feb 05, 2025 263   American W 70-65 67%    
  Feb 08, 2025 294   @ Army W 67-66 52%    
  Feb 12, 2025 288   Boston University W 71-65 71%    
  Feb 15, 2025 244   @ Lafayette L 66-68 43%    
  Feb 17, 2025 283   Lehigh W 77-71 70%    
  Feb 23, 2025 294   Army W 70-63 72%    
  Feb 26, 2025 336   @ Loyola Maryland W 70-66 65%    
  Mar 01, 2025 315   @ Holy Cross W 73-71 57%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 1.7 4.8 5.9 4.9 3.1 1.1 0.2 22.0 1st
2nd 0.4 3.4 6.2 5.6 2.3 0.5 0.1 18.6 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.0 6.6 4.3 1.0 0.1 15.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.7 5.6 3.1 0.6 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 4.8 2.5 0.4 9.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 3.7 2.7 0.3 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 2.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 5.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.4 0.4 4.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.5 5.3 8.3 10.9 11.9 14.0 12.8 11.5 8.3 5.5 3.2 1.1 0.2 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
16-2 97.0% 3.1    2.8 0.2
15-3 90.3% 4.9    4.1 0.8 0.0
14-4 71.0% 5.9    3.7 1.9 0.2 0.0
13-5 41.9% 4.8    2.1 2.0 0.6 0.1
12-6 12.9% 1.7    0.3 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.6% 0.4    0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.0% 22.0 14.4 5.6 1.6 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 39.5% 39.5% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.1% 42.9% 42.9% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6
16-2 3.2% 39.6% 39.6% 14.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.9
15-3 5.5% 34.7% 34.7% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.1 3.6
14-4 8.3% 31.0% 31.0% 14.9 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.6 5.7
13-5 11.5% 24.7% 24.7% 15.2 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.1 8.7
12-6 12.8% 18.9% 18.9% 15.5 0.2 0.9 1.3 10.4
11-7 14.0% 14.9% 14.9% 15.7 0.0 0.5 1.6 11.9
10-8 11.9% 10.9% 10.9% 15.8 0.0 0.2 1.0 10.6
9-9 10.9% 8.9% 8.9% 15.9 0.1 0.9 9.9
8-10 8.3% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4 7.9
7-11 5.3% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2 5.0
6-12 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.1 3.4
5-13 2.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.0
4-14 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 15.2 0.1 0.9 2.8 5.5 7.4 83.3 0.0%