Dartmouth
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.6#339
Expected Predictive Rating-12.8#323
Pace70.5#139
Improvement-1.9#341

Offense
Total Offense-8.1#355
First Shot-3.5#273
After Offensive Rebound-4.7#355
Layup/Dunks-2.6#271
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#83
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#308
Freethrows+1.9#89
Improvement-2.4#357

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#290
First Shot-6.2#338
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#40
Layups/Dunks-3.5#289
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#274
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#235
Freethrows+0.2#172
Improvement+0.4#122
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.6% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 0.6% 2.8% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 4.4% 9.4% 4.1%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 68.6% 55.6% 69.5%
First Four0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boston College (Away) - 6.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 12
Quad 44 - 85 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 331   Sacred Heart W 81-76 57%     1 - 0 -8.3 -7.7 -1.1
  Nov 13, 2024 248   Albany L 73-87 34%     1 - 1 -21.3 -5.6 -15.4
  Nov 16, 2024 284   @ Boston University L 50-78 21%     1 - 2 -31.3 -22.1 -10.1
  Nov 19, 2024 234   @ Marist L 62-75 15%     1 - 3 -13.6 -12.9 -0.4
  Nov 29, 2024 133   @ Boston College L 61-77 6%    
  Dec 03, 2024 341   @ New Hampshire L 69-72 40%    
  Dec 08, 2024 157   @ Illinois-Chicago L 67-82 9%    
  Dec 11, 2024 56   @ Notre Dame L 56-80 1%    
  Dec 14, 2024 154   @ Umass Lowell L 66-81 9%    
  Dec 18, 2024 336   Le Moyne W 71-69 58%    
  Dec 21, 2024 149   Vermont L 59-68 20%    
  Jan 11, 2025 268   Penn L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 18, 2025 110   Princeton L 64-77 13%    
  Jan 20, 2025 108   @ Yale L 60-79 5%    
  Jan 25, 2025 221   @ Brown L 64-76 15%    
  Jan 31, 2025 167   @ Cornell L 70-84 11%    
  Feb 01, 2025 192   @ Columbia L 68-81 12%    
  Feb 08, 2025 243   Harvard L 67-72 35%    
  Feb 14, 2025 192   Columbia L 71-78 27%    
  Feb 15, 2025 167   Cornell L 73-81 24%    
  Feb 21, 2025 268   @ Penn L 67-76 22%    
  Feb 22, 2025 110   Princeton L 64-77 14%    
  Feb 28, 2025 108   Yale L 63-76 14%    
  Mar 01, 2025 221   Brown L 67-73 32%    
  Mar 08, 2025 243   @ Harvard L 64-75 18%    
Projected Record 5 - 20 3 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3 3rd
4th 0.2 1.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.4 2.6 0.7 0.0 6.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.4 4.6 1.2 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 0.4 4.1 9.1 7.0 1.6 0.1 22.4 7th
8th 9.5 18.2 17.0 8.7 1.9 0.1 55.4 8th
Total 9.5 18.6 21.2 18.8 13.7 8.8 5.1 2.6 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-3 69.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-4 32.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-5 8.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1 0.0% 0.0
12-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-3 0.0% 0.0
10-4 0.2% 11.5% 11.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
9-5 0.5% 11.6% 11.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.4
8-6 1.1% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
7-7 2.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.6
6-8 5.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 5.0
5-9 8.8% 8.8
4-10 13.7% 13.7
3-11 18.8% 18.8
2-12 21.2% 21.2
1-13 18.6% 18.6
0-14 9.5% 9.5
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.2%