Dartmouth
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.4#312
Expected Predictive Rating-8.6#308
Pace72.8#79
Improvement+1.8#73

Offense
Total Offense-5.6#327
First Shot-0.8#193
After Offensive Rebound-4.7#359
Layup/Dunks-5.6#340
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#200
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#27
Freethrows-0.6#214
Improvement+1.7#56

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#261
First Shot-5.7#346
After Offensive Rebounds+2.9#14
Layups/Dunks-5.8#351
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#191
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#232
Freethrows+0.9#127
Improvement+0.1#171
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 0.8% 1.8% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 7.7% 10.3% 6.3%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 54.7% 49.4% 57.5%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Vermont (Home) - 34.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 32 - 82 - 12
Quad 44 - 67 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 284   Sacred Heart W 81-76 55%     1 - 0 -4.8 -3.9 -1.3
  Nov 13, 2024 236   Albany L 73-87 45%     1 - 1 -21.1 -6.2 -14.5
  Nov 16, 2024 256   @ Boston University L 50-78 28%     1 - 2 -30.2 -21.5 -9.6
  Nov 19, 2024 233   @ Marist L 62-75 23%     1 - 3 -13.7 -11.4 -2.1
  Nov 29, 2024 152   @ Boston College W 88-83 14%     2 - 3 +8.3 +12.1 -4.1
  Dec 03, 2024 356   @ New Hampshire W 69-65 56%     3 - 3 -5.9 -4.5 -1.3
  Dec 08, 2024 199   @ Illinois-Chicago L 68-69 OT 18%     3 - 4 +0.4 -14.0 +14.5
  Dec 11, 2024 83   @ Notre Dame L 65-77 6%     3 - 5 -2.2 -1.8 -0.7
  Dec 14, 2024 147   @ Umass Lowell L 83-92 14%     3 - 6 -5.6 +8.7 -14.2
  Dec 18, 2024 332   Le Moyne L 76-80 68%     3 - 7 -17.2 -5.6 -11.4
  Dec 21, 2024 184   Vermont L 63-67 35%    
  Jan 11, 2025 274   Penn W 72-71 53%    
  Jan 18, 2025 117   Princeton L 70-78 23%    
  Jan 20, 2025 100   @ Yale L 66-83 6%    
  Jan 25, 2025 156   @ Brown L 65-76 15%    
  Jan 31, 2025 120   @ Cornell L 73-87 10%    
  Feb 01, 2025 177   @ Columbia L 71-81 17%    
  Feb 08, 2025 231   Harvard L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 14, 2025 177   Columbia L 74-78 34%    
  Feb 15, 2025 120   Cornell L 76-84 24%    
  Feb 21, 2025 274   @ Penn L 69-74 32%    
  Feb 22, 2025 117   Princeton L 70-78 23%    
  Feb 28, 2025 100   Yale L 69-80 17%    
  Mar 01, 2025 156   Brown L 68-73 32%    
  Mar 08, 2025 231   @ Harvard L 67-75 24%    
Projected Record 7 - 18 4 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 2.4 0.6 0.0 4.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.8 4.2 1.2 0.1 8.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 5.9 7.3 2.1 0.1 16.4 6th
7th 0.3 3.4 9.9 9.9 3.0 0.1 26.6 7th
8th 3.6 10.8 14.5 9.1 2.3 0.1 40.3 8th
Total 3.6 11.1 17.8 20.1 18.4 13.4 8.0 4.4 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
11-3 83.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0
10-4 31.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-5 14.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1 0.0% 0.0
12-2 0.0% 0.0
11-3 0.1% 10.8% 10.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1
10-4 0.2% 3.4% 3.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.2
9-5 0.8% 11.1% 11.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.7
8-6 2.2% 5.0% 5.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.0
7-7 4.4% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 4.3
6-8 8.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.0
5-9 13.4% 13.4
4-10 18.4% 18.4
3-11 20.1% 20.1
2-12 17.8% 17.8
1-13 11.1% 11.1
0-14 3.6% 3.6
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.7%