Drake
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.8#93
Expected Predictive Rating+17.3#12
Pace61.2#353
Improvement+0.7#110

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#96
First Shot+2.9#94
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#170
Layup/Dunks+0.2#174
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#160
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#233
Freethrows+3.9#26
Improvement-0.1#181

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#97
First Shot+2.6#96
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#187
Layups/Dunks+0.7#148
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#165
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#49
Freethrows-3.0#326
Improvement+0.8#79
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.9% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.4% 2.8% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.9% 30.7% 20.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.4% 5.9% 1.9%
Average Seed 11.2 10.6 11.7
.500 or above 95.0% 98.0% 92.9%
.500 or above in Conference 91.1% 94.2% 89.0%
Conference Champion 32.9% 39.0% 28.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
First Four1.8% 2.9% 1.1%
First Round24.0% 29.5% 20.3%
Second Round6.9% 10.0% 4.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 3.2% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.8% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Atlantic (Neutral) - 40.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 22 - 33 - 4
Quad 37 - 310 - 7
Quad 411 - 121 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2024 202   Stephen F. Austin W 66-51 84%     1 - 0 +9.9 +5.8 +6.3
  Nov 16, 2024 213   Florida Gulf Coast W 63-61 85%     2 - 0 -3.5 -4.4 +1.1
  Nov 21, 2024 49   Miami (FL) W 80-69 35%     3 - 0 +20.7 +19.7 +2.5
  Nov 22, 2024 66   Florida Atlantic L 73-75 41%    
  Nov 30, 2024 220   Georgia Southern W 81-69 85%    
  Dec 04, 2024 270   @ Valparaiso W 72-64 78%    
  Dec 17, 2024 65   @ Kansas St. L 64-70 31%    
  Dec 21, 2024 252   Green Bay W 77-63 89%    
  Dec 29, 2024 142   Belmont W 76-69 74%    
  Jan 01, 2025 184   @ Illinois-Chicago W 75-71 64%    
  Jan 05, 2025 110   Murray St. W 69-64 66%    
  Jan 08, 2025 88   @ Bradley L 66-69 38%    
  Jan 11, 2025 301   Evansville W 77-61 92%    
  Jan 15, 2025 171   Illinois St. W 69-60 80%    
  Jan 18, 2025 181   @ Indiana St. W 75-71 64%    
  Jan 22, 2025 270   Valparaiso W 75-61 89%    
  Jan 25, 2025 167   @ Missouri St. W 68-65 62%    
  Jan 29, 2025 119   Northern Iowa W 70-64 68%    
  Feb 01, 2025 134   Southern Illinois W 70-63 72%    
  Feb 04, 2025 110   @ Murray St. L 66-67 46%    
  Feb 08, 2025 181   Indiana St. W 78-68 80%    
  Feb 12, 2025 171   @ Illinois St. W 66-63 61%    
  Feb 16, 2025 88   Bradley W 69-66 60%    
  Feb 19, 2025 184   Illinois-Chicago W 78-68 81%    
  Feb 23, 2025 119   @ Northern Iowa L 67-68 48%    
  Feb 26, 2025 301   @ Evansville W 74-64 81%    
  Mar 02, 2025 167   Missouri St. W 71-62 79%    
Projected Record 19 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.5 4.7 7.6 8.5 6.3 3.1 0.9 32.9 1st
2nd 0.3 2.6 5.7 6.6 3.7 1.4 0.1 20.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.1 5.2 4.7 1.5 0.3 14.2 3rd
4th 0.3 1.8 4.0 3.3 1.0 0.1 10.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 2.9 2.6 0.4 0.0 7.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 2.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.3 2.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.3 3.9 5.4 7.1 9.3 11.7 12.9 12.9 11.6 9.9 6.4 3.1 0.9 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
19-1 100.0% 3.1    3.1 0.0
18-2 98.4% 6.3    6.0 0.3
17-3 86.3% 8.5    7.0 1.5 0.0
16-4 65.4% 7.6    4.6 2.7 0.3
15-5 36.7% 4.7    2.1 1.9 0.7 0.1
14-6 11.7% 1.5    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1
13-7 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 32.9% 32.9 24.0 7.2 1.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.9% 96.2% 70.9% 25.3% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 86.9%
19-1 3.1% 73.5% 51.5% 21.9% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.8 45.3%
18-2 6.4% 59.6% 45.4% 14.2% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.8 0.6 2.6 26.0%
17-3 9.9% 40.2% 34.8% 5.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.8 1.7 0.0 5.9 8.4%
16-4 11.6% 34.1% 32.2% 1.9% 11.7 0.1 1.3 2.4 0.2 7.6 2.8%
15-5 12.9% 24.7% 24.3% 0.4% 12.0 0.0 0.6 2.1 0.5 9.7 0.5%
14-6 12.9% 22.9% 22.9% 0.1% 12.1 0.0 0.3 2.0 0.6 0.1 10.0 0.1%
13-7 11.7% 15.3% 15.3% 12.5 0.0 1.0 0.6 0.1 9.9
12-8 9.3% 11.6% 11.6% 12.4 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.1 8.2
11-9 7.1% 7.5% 7.5% 12.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.6
10-10 5.4% 4.8% 4.8% 13.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.1
9-11 3.9% 3.7% 3.7% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.7
8-12 2.3% 1.0% 1.0% 15.0 0.0 2.2
7-13 1.4% 1.4
6-14 0.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7
5-15 0.4% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 24.9% 22.2% 2.6% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.4 6.5 10.8 2.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 75.1 3.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 4.2 4.4 16.8 8.0 25.7 31.9 4.4 4.4 4.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 5.0 16.7 16.7 16.7 33.3 16.7