Drake
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.3#80
Expected Predictive Rating+19.0#11
Pace57.4#362
Improvement-2.7#316

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#91
First Shot+2.7#98
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#159
Layup/Dunks+2.4#96
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#230
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#263
Freethrows+4.0#11
Improvement-0.9#252

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#71
First Shot+3.2#84
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#88
Layups/Dunks-3.4#308
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#45
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.6#3
Freethrows-2.7#338
Improvement-1.7#303
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 1.4% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.4% 34.8% 23.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.8% 6.9% 2.0%
Average Seed 10.9 10.8 11.5
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 98.0% 98.9% 94.5%
Conference Champion 45.0% 50.0% 26.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four2.9% 3.3% 1.4%
First Round30.9% 33.1% 22.7%
Second Round9.1% 10.0% 5.7%
Sweet Sixteen2.2% 2.5% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Home) - 79.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 0
Quad 24 - 25 - 2
Quad 310 - 314 - 5
Quad 410 - 125 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2024 213   Stephen F. Austin W 66-51 88%     1 - 0 +9.4 +5.6 +6.0
  Nov 16, 2024 188   Florida Gulf Coast W 63-61 86%     2 - 0 -2.5 -5.1 +2.9
  Nov 21, 2024 104   Miami (FL) W 80-69 60%     3 - 0 +15.6 +16.4 +0.7
  Nov 22, 2024 88   Florida Atlantic W 75-63 54%     4 - 0 +18.3 +7.4 +11.6
  Nov 24, 2024 50   Vanderbilt W 81-70 38%     5 - 0 +21.5 +10.8 +10.6
  Nov 30, 2024 242   Georgia Southern W 61-47 91%     6 - 0 +6.5 -8.8 +16.6
  Dec 05, 2024 224   @ Valparaiso W 66-60 77%     7 - 0 1 - 0 +5.5 +1.4 +5.0
  Dec 17, 2024 84   @ Kansas St. W 73-70 OT 40%     8 - 0 +12.8 +9.7 +3.3
  Dec 21, 2024 329   Green Bay W 72-62 96%     9 - 0 -2.6 +6.4 -6.8
  Dec 29, 2024 130   Belmont W 76-67 79%    
  Jan 01, 2025 192   @ Illinois-Chicago W 70-64 71%    
  Jan 05, 2025 133   Murray St. W 67-58 79%    
  Jan 08, 2025 78   @ Bradley L 64-67 39%    
  Jan 11, 2025 315   Evansville W 74-55 96%    
  Jan 15, 2025 141   Illinois St. W 69-60 81%    
  Jan 18, 2025 150   @ Indiana St. W 74-70 65%    
  Jan 22, 2025 224   Valparaiso W 75-61 90%    
  Jan 25, 2025 171   @ Missouri St. W 65-60 67%    
  Jan 29, 2025 99   Northern Iowa W 67-62 69%    
  Feb 01, 2025 198   Southern Illinois W 71-59 87%    
  Feb 04, 2025 133   @ Murray St. W 64-61 60%    
  Feb 08, 2025 150   Indiana St. W 77-67 82%    
  Feb 12, 2025 141   @ Illinois St. W 66-63 62%    
  Feb 16, 2025 78   Bradley W 67-64 61%    
  Feb 19, 2025 192   Illinois-Chicago W 73-61 86%    
  Feb 23, 2025 99   @ Northern Iowa L 64-65 48%    
  Feb 26, 2025 315   @ Evansville W 71-58 88%    
  Mar 02, 2025 171   Missouri St. W 68-57 83%    
Projected Record 23 - 5 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.9 6.0 10.8 12.0 8.6 4.3 1.1 45.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.8 6.9 8.4 5.0 1.6 0.2 25.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.2 4.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.2 2.3 0.4 0.0 7.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 1.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.6 4.3 7.2 10.8 13.3 16.0 16.0 13.6 8.7 4.3 1.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
19-1 100.0% 4.3    4.3 0.0
18-2 98.2% 8.6    8.1 0.5
17-3 88.0% 12.0    9.7 2.2 0.0
16-4 67.7% 10.8    6.9 3.6 0.4 0.0
15-5 37.6% 6.0    2.5 2.7 0.8 0.1
14-6 14.6% 1.9    0.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 45.0% 45.0 33.0 9.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.1% 89.7% 59.6% 30.1% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 74.5%
19-1 4.3% 75.0% 49.9% 25.1% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.0 1.1 50.1%
18-2 8.7% 59.1% 44.9% 14.2% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.1 3.0 0.3 3.6 25.7%
17-3 13.6% 44.8% 37.9% 6.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 4.0 1.2 0.0 7.5 11.0%
16-4 16.0% 35.3% 32.3% 3.0% 11.3 0.0 0.2 3.4 2.0 0.0 10.3 4.4%
15-5 16.0% 28.9% 28.3% 0.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 1.9 2.6 0.0 11.4 0.8%
14-6 13.3% 23.1% 22.9% 0.2% 11.8 0.0 0.8 2.2 0.1 10.2 0.3%
13-7 10.8% 18.1% 18.1% 0.0% 11.9 0.3 1.5 0.1 0.0 8.8 0.0%
12-8 7.2% 13.9% 13.9% 12.0 0.1 0.8 0.1 6.2
11-9 4.3% 9.8% 9.8% 12.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.9
10-10 2.6% 6.9% 6.9% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.5
9-11 1.2% 4.7% 4.7% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
8-12 0.5% 1.6% 1.6% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
7-13 0.2% 1.1% 1.1% 13.0 0.0 0.2
6-14 0.1% 2.9% 2.9% 13.0 0.0 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 32.4% 28.3% 4.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.2 2.8 14.3 11.3 0.5 0.0 67.6 5.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 5.1 1.3 1.9 9.4 27.6 21.6 22.9 9.1 3.1 2.8 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 82.5% 7.9 2.1 9.3 12.4 9.3 16.5 14.4 12.4 6.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 68.1% 8.0 7.2 8.7 14.5 8.7 14.5 5.8 8.7