Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#180
Expected Predictive Rating-5.7#265
Pace80.3#8
Improvement+2.2#19

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#167
First Shot+1.4#131
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#229
Layup/Dunks-8.2#355
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#356
3 Pt Jumpshots+15.8#1
Freethrows-1.9#277
Improvement+2.8#2

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#219
First Shot-4.6#310
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#31
Layups/Dunks-7.7#352
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#22
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#83
Freethrows-2.8#319
Improvement-0.6#268
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 4.1% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.4 14.3
.500 or above 39.8% 41.8% 16.3%
.500 or above in Conference 43.7% 45.1% 26.9%
Conference Champion 3.7% 3.9% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 8.2% 7.6% 14.9%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round3.8% 4.0% 1.3%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Home) - 92.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 35 - 76 - 13
Quad 48 - 414 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 75   Florida Atlantic L 64-97 21%     0 - 1 -25.4 -17.9 -2.4
  Nov 12, 2024 269   SIU Edwardsville L 72-77 77%     0 - 2 -13.5 -3.9 -9.6
  Nov 16, 2024 246   @ Ball St. W 94-84 51%     1 - 2 +8.7 +8.1 -0.7
  Nov 22, 2024 349   Chicago St. W 87-72 92%    
  Nov 25, 2024 323   @ Southern Indiana W 80-75 68%    
  Nov 29, 2024 112   Arkansas St. L 76-81 32%    
  Nov 30, 2024 217   Iona W 79-77 57%    
  Dec 01, 2024 317   Tarleton St. W 82-74 76%    
  Dec 07, 2024 162   @ Missouri St. L 74-78 37%    
  Dec 18, 2024 109   Murray St. L 75-77 43%    
  Dec 29, 2024 20   @ Ohio St. L 67-85 5%    
  Jan 01, 2025 93   Bradley L 75-79 38%    
  Jan 04, 2025 300   @ Evansville W 81-78 62%    
  Jan 08, 2025 276   @ Valparaiso W 80-78 57%    
  Jan 11, 2025 141   Belmont W 85-84 52%    
  Jan 15, 2025 93   @ Bradley L 72-82 20%    
  Jan 18, 2025 107   Drake L 76-78 43%    
  Jan 21, 2025 172   @ Illinois St. L 73-76 39%    
  Jan 25, 2025 118   Northern Iowa L 77-78 46%    
  Jan 29, 2025 162   Missouri St. W 77-75 58%    
  Feb 01, 2025 157   @ Illinois-Chicago L 82-86 37%    
  Feb 05, 2025 276   Valparaiso W 83-75 75%    
  Feb 08, 2025 107   @ Drake L 73-81 25%    
  Feb 11, 2025 118   @ Northern Iowa L 74-81 27%    
  Feb 15, 2025 172   Illinois St. W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 19, 2025 300   Evansville W 84-75 79%    
  Feb 22, 2025 141   @ Belmont L 82-87 32%    
  Feb 25, 2025 109   @ Murray St. L 72-80 25%    
  Mar 02, 2025 132   Southern Illinois W 77-76 51%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 6.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.2 2.0 0.3 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.6 2.6 0.4 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.7 3.3 0.5 0.0 10.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.9 3.7 0.7 0.0 11.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.2 3.7 0.9 0.0 11.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 2.5 4.1 2.9 0.8 0.1 11.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.2 2.9 1.8 0.5 0.0 8.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.9 12th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.1 6.4 8.6 9.9 11.7 11.7 11.0 9.7 8.0 5.9 4.0 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 87.9% 0.6    0.4 0.1 0.0
16-4 72.1% 1.1    0.7 0.3 0.0
15-5 42.1% 1.1    0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0
14-6 13.5% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
13-7 2.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.7% 3.7 2.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 36.8% 36.8% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-3 0.7% 25.3% 25.3% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
16-4 1.5% 25.0% 25.0% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1
15-5 2.6% 17.9% 17.9% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.2
14-6 4.0% 13.6% 13.6% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.5
13-7 5.9% 9.7% 9.7% 13.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 5.3
12-8 8.0% 7.5% 7.5% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.4
11-9 9.7% 4.3% 4.3% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.3
10-10 11.0% 2.4% 2.4% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.8
9-11 11.7% 1.3% 1.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.5
8-12 11.7% 0.9% 0.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.6
7-13 9.9% 0.5% 0.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 9.8
6-14 8.6% 0.2% 0.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 8.6
5-15 6.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.4
4-16 4.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.1
3-17 2.4% 2.4
2-18 1.1% 1.1
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.3 96.1 0.0%