Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#150
Expected Predictive Rating-0.5#175
Pace77.3#20
Improvement+5.6#5

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#90
First Shot+5.3#49
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#297
Layup/Dunks+3.3#68
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#359
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.5#11
Freethrows-2.4#310
Improvement+4.9#1

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#263
First Shot-4.3#312
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#69
Layups/Dunks-4.0#321
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#134
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#167
Freethrows-1.3#271
Improvement+0.7#131
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.8% 5.9% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 12.5 13.3
.500 or above 52.2% 76.3% 49.9%
.500 or above in Conference 62.9% 75.1% 61.8%
Conference Champion 3.3% 5.6% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 1.0% 2.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round3.8% 5.9% 3.6%
Second Round0.4% 0.9% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio St. (Away) - 8.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 35 - 57 - 12
Quad 48 - 315 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 85   Florida Atlantic L 64-97 27%     0 - 1 -26.5 -18.2 -3.2
  Nov 12, 2024 269   SIU Edwardsville L 72-77 80%     0 - 2 -13.7 -3.1 -10.6
  Nov 16, 2024 288   @ Ball St. W 94-84 66%     1 - 2 +6.2 +6.6 -1.7
  Nov 22, 2024 360   Chicago St. W 97-61 94%     2 - 2 +18.8 +14.5 +2.9
  Nov 25, 2024 282   @ Southern Indiana L 77-87 65%     2 - 3 -13.7 -4.4 -8.4
  Nov 29, 2024 109   Arkansas St. L 81-86 37%     2 - 4 -1.2 +7.2 -8.1
  Nov 30, 2024 258   Iona W 83-80 71%     3 - 4 -2.3 +6.1 -8.6
  Dec 01, 2024 286   Tarleton St. W 87-71 75%     4 - 4 +9.2 +14.5 -5.1
  Dec 07, 2024 194   @ Missouri St. W 80-77 45%     5 - 4 1 - 0 +4.6 +10.5 -5.9
  Dec 18, 2024 124   Murray St. W 84-74 54%     6 - 4 2 - 0 +9.4 +10.1 -0.7
  Dec 29, 2024 38   @ Ohio St. L 73-87 9%    
  Jan 01, 2025 79   Bradley L 77-81 37%    
  Jan 04, 2025 290   @ Evansville W 81-77 65%    
  Jan 08, 2025 226   @ Valparaiso W 83-82 53%    
  Jan 11, 2025 133   Belmont W 89-87 56%    
  Jan 15, 2025 79   @ Bradley L 74-84 19%    
  Jan 18, 2025 67   Drake L 70-75 32%    
  Jan 21, 2025 153   @ Illinois St. L 76-79 39%    
  Jan 25, 2025 98   Northern Iowa L 77-79 42%    
  Jan 29, 2025 194   Missouri St. W 80-75 67%    
  Feb 01, 2025 199   @ Illinois-Chicago L 81-82 46%    
  Feb 05, 2025 226   Valparaiso W 86-79 73%    
  Feb 08, 2025 67   @ Drake L 67-78 16%    
  Feb 11, 2025 98   @ Northern Iowa L 74-82 23%    
  Feb 15, 2025 153   Illinois St. W 79-76 60%    
  Feb 19, 2025 290   Evansville W 84-74 82%    
  Feb 22, 2025 133   @ Belmont L 86-90 35%    
  Feb 25, 2025 124   @ Murray St. L 74-79 33%    
  Mar 02, 2025 168   Southern Illinois W 81-77 64%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.8 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.0 4.6 2.5 0.5 0.0 11.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 3.9 6.0 2.8 0.4 0.0 13.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.1 6.4 2.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 14.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.6 6.5 2.9 0.3 0.0 13.6 6th
7th 0.3 2.6 5.6 2.9 0.4 0.0 11.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 4.5 2.7 0.4 0.0 9.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 3.3 2.4 0.4 0.0 7.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 3.9 7.1 10.3 13.2 14.5 14.2 12.5 9.4 6.2 3.5 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
18-2 97.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 84.4% 0.6    0.4 0.1 0.0
16-4 60.0% 1.0    0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 27.2% 0.9    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 7.8% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 18.0% 18.0% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-3 0.7% 19.3% 19.3% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
16-4 1.7% 14.4% 14.4% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4
15-5 3.5% 11.5% 11.5% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.1
14-6 6.2% 11.0% 11.0% 12.8 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 5.5
13-7 9.4% 7.6% 7.6% 13.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 8.7
12-8 12.5% 5.4% 5.4% 13.3 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 11.8
11-9 14.2% 3.0% 3.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 13.8
10-10 14.5% 1.6% 1.6% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 14.3
9-11 13.2% 0.9% 0.9% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.1
8-12 10.3% 0.8% 0.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 10.2
7-13 7.1% 0.2% 0.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 7.1
6-14 3.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.9
5-15 1.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.9
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 96.2 0.0%