Lamar
Southland
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.9#175
Expected Predictive Rating-2.4#206
Pace66.5#246
Improvement+6.1#2

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#235
First Shot-5.4#325
After Offensive Rebound+3.3#23
Layup/Dunks-2.3#274
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#61
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#260
Freethrows-2.7#321
Improvement+0.8#116

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#135
First Shot+1.4#124
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#215
Layups/Dunks+0.1#165
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#220
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#45
Freethrows-2.3#320
Improvement+5.3#1
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.2% 19.6% 12.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 13.6 14.5
.500 or above 79.7% 94.0% 79.0%
.500 or above in Conference 95.6% 97.7% 95.5%
Conference Champion 18.5% 27.2% 18.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.0% 0.5%
First Round13.0% 19.6% 12.6%
Second Round0.8% 1.6% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Tech (Away) - 4.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 33 - 44 - 7
Quad 413 - 617 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2024 25   @ Texas A&M L 71-97 6%     0 - 1 -9.1 +5.8 -14.2
  Nov 17, 2024 127   Sam Houston St. L 72-85 50%     0 - 2 -13.8 +0.0 -14.3
  Nov 22, 2024 163   @ Akron L 72-79 36%     0 - 3 -4.3 -5.2 +1.4
  Nov 23, 2024 297   Alabama St. L 75-77 73%     0 - 4 -9.2 -0.4 -8.9
  Nov 24, 2024 298   Nebraska Omaha L 59-65 73%     0 - 5 -13.2 -13.0 -0.7
  Dec 05, 2024 186   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 65-61 40%     1 - 5 1 - 0 +5.7 -4.4 +10.3
  Dec 07, 2024 227   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 84-52 48%     2 - 5 2 - 0 +31.5 +13.7 +19.2
  Dec 14, 2024 291   @ Louisiana W 74-45 62%     3 - 5 +25.1 +8.4 +20.5
  Dec 17, 2024 283   @ Southern Miss W 69-65 61%     4 - 5 +0.3 -2.3 +2.6
  Dec 21, 2024 24   @ Texas Tech L 60-78 5%    
  Jan 04, 2025 349   Houston Christian W 75-61 91%    
  Jan 06, 2025 304   Incarnate Word W 75-65 82%    
  Jan 11, 2025 217   Stephen F. Austin W 65-60 67%    
  Jan 13, 2025 345   New Orleans W 79-65 90%    
  Jan 18, 2025 92   @ McNeese St. L 62-72 18%    
  Jan 20, 2025 241   @ Nicholls St. W 70-69 52%    
  Jan 25, 2025 353   Texas A&M - Commerce W 75-60 91%    
  Jan 27, 2025 292   Northwestern St. W 71-62 79%    
  Feb 01, 2025 217   @ Stephen F. Austin L 62-63 45%    
  Feb 03, 2025 228   @ SE Louisiana L 66-67 49%    
  Feb 08, 2025 227   UT Rio Grande Valley W 77-71 69%    
  Feb 10, 2025 186   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 72-69 62%    
  Feb 15, 2025 353   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 72-63 78%    
  Feb 17, 2025 292   @ Northwestern St. W 68-65 61%    
  Feb 22, 2025 349   @ Houston Christian W 72-64 77%    
  Feb 24, 2025 304   @ Incarnate Word W 72-68 64%    
  Mar 01, 2025 92   McNeese St. L 65-69 36%    
  Mar 03, 2025 241   Nicholls St. W 73-66 73%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.6 4.7 5.3 3.6 1.4 0.3 18.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.6 8.7 11.0 7.4 2.8 0.4 34.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.3 7.1 5.5 2.0 0.2 0.0 18.6 3rd
4th 0.2 2.0 5.0 3.4 0.8 0.1 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.2 2.2 0.4 0.0 7.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.6 4.7 7.6 11.3 14.6 15.7 15.6 12.3 8.0 4.0 1.4 0.3 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.4    1.3 0.1
18-2 89.3% 3.6    2.8 0.8 0.0
17-3 65.6% 5.3    3.6 1.7 0.0
16-4 38.1% 4.7    2.4 2.1 0.3 0.0
15-5 16.3% 2.6    0.8 1.2 0.5 0.1
14-6 4.0% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 18.5% 18.5 11.2 6.0 1.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 43.7% 43.7% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
19-1 1.4% 38.5% 38.5% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8
18-2 4.0% 32.1% 32.1% 13.5 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 2.7
17-3 8.0% 26.5% 26.5% 13.9 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.0 5.9
16-4 12.3% 22.4% 22.4% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.1 0.1 9.6
15-5 15.6% 16.8% 16.8% 14.7 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.3 13.0
14-6 15.7% 11.8% 11.8% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.4 13.8
13-7 14.6% 7.2% 7.2% 15.3 0.1 0.6 0.4 13.5
12-8 11.3% 4.0% 4.0% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 10.9
11-9 7.6% 2.9% 2.9% 15.8 0.0 0.2 7.4
10-10 4.7% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.6
9-11 2.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.5
8-12 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1
7-13 0.4% 0.4
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 13.2% 13.2% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.4 1.9 4.1 5.0 1.8 86.8 0.0%