Marquette
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.3#17
Expected Predictive Rating+20.3#7
Pace71.1#113
Improvement-2.4#301

Offense
Total Offense+8.3#17
First Shot+7.2#25
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#111
Layup/Dunks+7.9#6
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#346
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#84
Freethrows-0.5#212
Improvement-0.4#213

Defense
Total Defense+6.9#23
First Shot+6.9#16
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#179
Layups/Dunks+1.8#104
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#214
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#136
Freethrows+3.9#8
Improvement-1.9#315
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.7% 0.9% 0.3%
#1 Seed 6.1% 7.8% 2.7%
Top 2 Seed 18.4% 22.5% 9.9%
Top 4 Seed 50.5% 57.5% 36.2%
Top 6 Seed 76.8% 82.2% 65.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.3% 99.2% 96.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.8% 98.9% 95.7%
Average Seed 4.7 4.3 5.4
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 97.1% 98.6% 93.9%
Conference Champion 31.9% 37.7% 20.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.0% 0.5% 2.0%
First Round97.8% 98.9% 95.5%
Second Round76.7% 80.4% 69.3%
Sweet Sixteen40.9% 44.4% 33.7%
Elite Eight18.1% 20.0% 14.1%
Final Four7.7% 8.6% 5.8%
Championship Game3.0% 3.5% 2.1%
National Champion1.2% 1.5% 0.7%

Next Game: Providence (Away) - 67.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 43 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 38 - 6
Quad 28 - 216 - 8
Quad 35 - 021 - 8
Quad 44 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 306   Stony Brook W 102-62 98%     1 - 0 +29.0 +23.4 +5.9
  Nov 08, 2024 82   George Mason W 82-63 85%     2 - 0 +23.1 +10.1 +12.1
  Nov 11, 2024 237   Central Michigan W 70-62 97%     3 - 0 +0.8 -8.1 +8.4
  Nov 15, 2024 13   @ Maryland W 78-74 36%     4 - 0 +23.0 +18.5 +4.6
  Nov 19, 2024 27   Purdue W 76-58 66%     5 - 0 +28.9 +8.3 +21.2
  Nov 23, 2024 36   Georgia W 80-69 62%     6 - 0 +23.1 +14.0 +9.0
  Nov 27, 2024 323   Stonehill W 94-59 99%     7 - 0 +22.9 +17.0 +6.9
  Nov 30, 2024 311   Western Carolina W 94-62 98%     8 - 0 +20.6 +6.4 +10.1
  Dec 04, 2024 6   @ Iowa St. L 70-81 24%     8 - 1 +11.6 +7.2 +4.4
  Dec 07, 2024 34   Wisconsin W 88-74 72%     9 - 1 +23.3 +23.1 +1.1
  Dec 14, 2024 48   @ Dayton L 63-71 56%     9 - 2 +5.8 +3.3 +1.5
  Dec 18, 2024 68   Butler W 80-70 83%     10 - 2 1 - 0 +14.9 +16.8 -0.8
  Dec 21, 2024 49   @ Xavier W 72-70 57%     11 - 2 2 - 0 +15.5 +6.3 +9.3
  Dec 31, 2024 75   @ Providence W 72-67 67%    
  Jan 03, 2025 46   Creighton W 80-73 75%    
  Jan 07, 2025 67   Georgetown W 79-69 83%    
  Jan 14, 2025 102   @ DePaul W 79-71 76%    
  Jan 18, 2025 49   Xavier W 80-72 76%    
  Jan 21, 2025 115   @ Seton Hall W 69-60 81%    
  Jan 24, 2025 52   Villanova W 78-70 77%    
  Jan 28, 2025 68   @ Butler W 77-73 65%    
  Feb 01, 2025 10   Connecticut W 76-74 55%    
  Feb 04, 2025 15   @ St. John's L 75-78 38%    
  Feb 08, 2025 46   @ Creighton W 77-76 55%    
  Feb 11, 2025 102   DePaul W 82-68 89%    
  Feb 18, 2025 115   Seton Hall W 72-57 92%    
  Feb 21, 2025 52   @ Villanova W 75-73 57%    
  Feb 25, 2025 75   Providence W 75-64 83%    
  Mar 01, 2025 67   @ Georgetown W 76-72 65%    
  Mar 04, 2025 10   @ Connecticut L 73-77 34%    
  Mar 08, 2025 15   St. John's W 78-75 59%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.9 8.3 8.8 5.4 2.2 0.4 31.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.3 7.5 9.0 5.4 1.6 0.2 27.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.0 7.4 5.8 2.2 0.3 0.0 20.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.1 2.3 0.4 0.0 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.3 1.0 0.1 5.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.5 6.3 9.7 13.4 15.4 16.2 14.1 10.4 5.6 2.2 0.4 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 100.0% 2.2    2.1 0.0
18-2 97.0% 5.4    4.9 0.5
17-3 84.3% 8.8    6.7 2.0 0.1
16-4 59.0% 8.3    4.8 3.2 0.4 0.0
15-5 30.4% 4.9    2.0 2.2 0.7 0.1
14-6 10.8% 1.7    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 31.9% 31.9 21.3 8.7 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 100.0% 48.8% 51.2% 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 2.2% 100.0% 45.2% 54.8% 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 5.6% 100.0% 38.6% 61.4% 1.9 1.9 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 10.4% 100.0% 34.1% 65.9% 2.4 1.8 4.2 3.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 14.1% 100.0% 28.3% 71.7% 3.1 0.7 3.1 5.3 3.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 16.2% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 4.0 0.2 1.2 4.4 5.4 3.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 15.4% 100.0% 20.2% 79.8% 4.9 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.8 4.7 3.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 13.4% 99.9% 16.2% 83.7% 5.9 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.1 4.2 2.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 9.7% 99.4% 12.8% 86.6% 6.8 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.5 2.8 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.3%
11-9 6.3% 97.7% 9.5% 88.2% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.1 97.5%
10-10 3.5% 92.6% 6.3% 86.3% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.3 92.1%
9-11 1.7% 74.8% 5.0% 69.8% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.4 73.5%
8-12 0.8% 44.6% 1.8% 42.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 43.6%
7-13 0.3% 14.5% 3.8% 10.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 11.1%
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.3% 22.4% 75.9% 4.7 6.1 12.2 16.3 15.8 13.9 12.5 9.0 6.0 3.7 1.8 0.9 0.0 1.7 97.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 80.2 19.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.4 66.1 32.1 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 72.7 24.2 3.0