Montana
Big Sky
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.5#211
Expected Predictive Rating+1.9#161
Pace65.5#287
Improvement+1.7#32

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#165
First Shot-0.2#189
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#131
Layup/Dunks+3.4#73
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#132
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.4#336
Freethrows+2.1#80
Improvement+1.3#34

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#269
First Shot-7.9#357
After Offensive Rebounds+4.9#9
Layups/Dunks+2.0#121
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#276
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#328
Freethrows-3.0#325
Improvement+0.4#124
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.0% 13.3% 7.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.4 15.0
.500 or above 43.4% 49.2% 24.6%
.500 or above in Conference 66.1% 69.7% 54.3%
Conference Champion 14.8% 16.5% 9.3%
Last Place in Conference 6.3% 5.1% 10.0%
First Four1.8% 1.7% 2.3%
First Round11.2% 12.6% 6.9%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Denver (Home) - 76.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 53 - 10
Quad 411 - 614 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 40   @ Oregon L 48-79 7%     0 - 1 -16.6 -13.6 -5.4
  Nov 13, 2024 8   @ Tennessee L 57-92 3%     0 - 2 -14.6 -3.5 -11.8
  Nov 18, 2024 45   @ Utah St. L 83-95 8%     0 - 3 +1.1 +8.9 -7.0
  Nov 24, 2024 295   Denver W 79-71 76%    
  Nov 25, 2024 304   Utah Tech W 78-70 78%    
  Nov 27, 2024 194   Cal St. Northridge W 77-75 58%    
  Dec 04, 2024 183   South Dakota St. W 73-71 56%    
  Dec 07, 2024 163   @ St. Thomas L 69-74 32%    
  Dec 16, 2024 118   @ Northern Iowa L 67-76 21%    
  Dec 21, 2024 59   @ San Francisco L 65-79 10%    
  Jan 02, 2025 245   @ Eastern Washington L 77-78 45%    
  Jan 04, 2025 287   @ Idaho W 72-71 53%    
  Jan 09, 2025 277   Northern Arizona W 73-67 72%    
  Jan 11, 2025 173   Northern Colorado W 75-74 55%    
  Jan 16, 2025 225   @ Weber St. L 68-70 42%    
  Jan 18, 2025 236   @ Idaho St. L 65-67 44%    
  Jan 20, 2025 287   Idaho W 75-68 73%    
  Jan 25, 2025 155   Montana St. W 74-73 51%    
  Jan 30, 2025 218   Portland St. W 80-77 62%    
  Feb 01, 2025 307   Sacramento St. W 70-61 77%    
  Feb 06, 2025 173   @ Northern Colorado L 72-77 34%    
  Feb 08, 2025 277   @ Northern Arizona W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 13, 2025 236   Idaho St. W 68-64 64%    
  Feb 15, 2025 225   Weber St. W 71-67 62%    
  Feb 22, 2025 155   @ Montana St. L 70-76 31%    
  Feb 27, 2025 307   @ Sacramento St. W 67-64 59%    
  Mar 01, 2025 218   @ Portland St. L 77-80 41%    
  Mar 03, 2025 245   Eastern Washington W 80-75 66%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.1 4.2 3.3 1.9 0.7 0.1 14.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.9 4.1 1.9 0.4 0.0 14.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.5 3.5 0.8 0.1 13.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.7 3.0 0.5 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.2 2.9 0.4 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.8 2.9 0.4 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.9 2.8 0.4 0.0 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.9 2.4 0.4 0.0 7.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 5.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.4 6.3 8.4 10.5 11.6 12.2 11.5 10.3 8.0 6.2 3.7 1.9 0.7 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7
16-2 98.8% 1.9    1.8 0.1 0.0
15-3 88.7% 3.3    2.7 0.6 0.0
14-4 67.3% 4.2    2.7 1.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 38.9% 3.1    1.2 1.4 0.4 0.0
12-6 13.3% 1.4    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.8% 14.8 9.4 4.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 54.9% 54.9% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.7% 55.6% 55.6% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.9% 42.5% 42.5% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1
15-3 3.7% 36.1% 36.1% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 2.3
14-4 6.2% 29.9% 29.9% 14.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.0 4.3
13-5 8.0% 21.7% 21.7% 14.3 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 6.3
12-6 10.3% 17.4% 17.4% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.3 8.5
11-7 11.5% 11.7% 11.7% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 10.2
10-8 12.2% 9.6% 9.6% 15.6 0.1 0.4 0.7 11.0
9-9 11.6% 6.9% 6.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 10.8
8-10 10.5% 4.2% 4.2% 15.9 0.0 0.4 10.0
7-11 8.4% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 8.2
6-12 6.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 6.2
5-13 4.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 4.3
4-14 2.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.4
3-15 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.1 3.5 2.9 88.0 0.0%