New Mexico St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#163
Expected Predictive Rating+5.5#101
Pace65.5#287
Improvement-0.9#283

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#182
First Shot-1.5#225
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#109
Layup/Dunks-5.6#331
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#14
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#239
Freethrows+0.8#151
Improvement-0.3#229

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#172
First Shot+2.9#92
After Offensive Rebounds-3.0#325
Layups/Dunks+5.3#43
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#72
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#338
Freethrows+1.8#89
Improvement-0.5#261
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.6% 7.2% 3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.4 13.3
.500 or above 39.9% 62.5% 34.5%
.500 or above in Conference 43.6% 57.3% 40.4%
Conference Champion 4.2% 7.9% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 12.0% 6.9% 13.2%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round4.5% 7.2% 3.9%
Second Round0.5% 1.1% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNLV (Away) - 19.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 41 - 8
Quad 34 - 56 - 13
Quad 47 - 213 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 304   @ Utah Tech W 75-63 67%     1 - 0 +7.1 +1.7 +5.7
  Nov 14, 2024 215   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 83-82 69%     2 - 0 -4.6 +1.9 -6.6
  Nov 20, 2024 60   @ Dayton L 53-74 13%     2 - 1 -9.1 -5.1 -7.2
  Nov 23, 2024 89   @ UNLV L 65-74 19%    
  Nov 29, 2024 248   Pepperdine W 73-69 65%    
  Dec 04, 2024 214   Abilene Christian W 72-67 68%    
  Dec 07, 2024 64   @ New Mexico L 70-82 14%    
  Dec 12, 2024 29   @ Texas L 62-78 7%    
  Dec 16, 2024 208   Southern Utah W 75-70 67%    
  Jan 02, 2025 117   Sam Houston St. L 72-73 47%    
  Jan 04, 2025 87   Louisiana Tech L 66-70 37%    
  Jan 11, 2025 174   @ UTEP L 69-72 41%    
  Jan 16, 2025 275   @ Florida International W 74-72 59%    
  Jan 18, 2025 80   @ Liberty L 59-70 18%    
  Jan 23, 2025 161   Kennesaw St. W 81-78 60%    
  Jan 25, 2025 183   Jacksonville St. W 68-64 63%    
  Jan 30, 2025 164   @ Middle Tennessee L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 01, 2025 122   @ Western Kentucky L 72-78 29%    
  Feb 08, 2025 174   UTEP W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 13, 2025 80   Liberty L 62-67 35%    
  Feb 15, 2025 275   Florida International W 77-69 77%    
  Feb 20, 2025 183   @ Jacksonville St. L 65-67 43%    
  Feb 22, 2025 161   @ Kennesaw St. L 78-81 39%    
  Feb 27, 2025 164   Middle Tennessee W 70-67 61%    
  Mar 01, 2025 122   Western Kentucky L 74-75 49%    
  Mar 06, 2025 87   @ Louisiana Tech L 63-73 21%    
  Mar 08, 2025 117   @ Sam Houston St. L 69-76 27%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.4 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 6.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.7 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.7 2.7 0.5 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.5 3.0 0.5 0.0 12.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.8 3.3 0.4 0.0 13.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.3 5.6 3.1 0.4 0.0 13.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 3.3 5.2 2.7 0.4 0.0 12.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.4 3.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 11.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 1.6 2.3 1.8 0.7 0.1 7.3 10th
Total 0.1 0.7 1.8 3.8 6.0 8.5 10.9 11.9 12.5 11.7 10.2 8.1 5.7 3.9 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 95.4% 0.4    0.4 0.0
15-3 86.1% 1.0    0.7 0.3 0.0
14-4 55.7% 1.2    0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 25.6% 1.0    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 6.9% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.2% 4.2 2.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 45.8% 39.0% 6.8% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.1%
16-2 0.4% 34.3% 29.7% 4.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 6.5%
15-3 1.1% 27.3% 26.2% 1.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.5%
14-4 2.2% 20.7% 20.6% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 0.1%
13-5 3.9% 15.4% 15.4% 12.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 3.3
12-6 5.7% 11.0% 11.0% 12.7 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.1
11-7 8.1% 7.9% 7.9% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 7.5
10-8 10.2% 6.0% 6.0% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 9.6
9-9 11.7% 4.2% 4.2% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 11.3
8-10 12.5% 2.8% 2.8% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 12.2
7-11 11.9% 1.4% 1.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.8
6-12 10.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 10.8
5-13 8.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.5
4-14 6.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.0
3-15 3.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.8
2-16 1.8% 1.8
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.6% 4.5% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.3 95.4 0.1%