Providence
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.4#77
Expected Predictive Rating+3.2#135
Pace63.6#325
Improvement+1.0#80

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#135
First Shot-0.5#201
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#84
Layup/Dunks+0.5#164
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#273
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#111
Freethrows-1.2#248
Improvement+1.5#26

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#32
First Shot+3.4#78
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#38
Layups/Dunks+0.1#167
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#351
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#40
Freethrows+2.6#54
Improvement-0.5#259
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.6% 1.1% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 2.3% 3.8% 1.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.2% 26.2% 12.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 16.9% 24.6% 11.3%
Average Seed 9.0 8.8 9.2
.500 or above 58.0% 72.2% 47.6%
.500 or above in Conference 33.3% 40.8% 27.8%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.2% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 11.2% 8.3% 13.4%
First Four4.0% 5.3% 3.0%
First Round16.2% 23.4% 10.8%
Second Round7.6% 11.5% 4.8%
Sweet Sixteen2.2% 3.4% 1.3%
Elite Eight0.7% 1.1% 0.4%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma (Neutral) - 42.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 9
Quad 24 - 46 - 13
Quad 34 - 211 - 15
Quad 45 - 016 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 254   Central Connecticut St. W 59-55 91%     1 - 0 -3.8 -9.6 +6.2
  Nov 09, 2024 343   Stonehill W 76-49 97%     2 - 0 +11.7 -4.1 +15.0
  Nov 12, 2024 307   Hampton W 60-51 95%     3 - 0 -2.2 -7.9 +7.1
  Nov 16, 2024 251   Green Bay W 79-65 91%     4 - 0 +6.3 +3.9 +3.0
  Nov 19, 2024 346   Delaware St. W 78-48 97%     5 - 0 +14.6 +12.8 +6.6
  Nov 27, 2024 51   Oklahoma L 65-67 42%    
  Dec 03, 2024 34   BYU L 69-71 44%    
  Dec 07, 2024 113   @ Rhode Island W 72-71 53%    
  Dec 10, 2024 110   @ DePaul W 68-67 52%    
  Dec 14, 2024 115   St. Bonaventure W 67-63 64%    
  Dec 20, 2024 16   St. John's L 67-71 36%    
  Dec 31, 2024 15   Marquette L 65-69 35%    
  Jan 05, 2025 2   @ Connecticut L 57-73 7%    
  Jan 08, 2025 85   Butler W 70-66 64%    
  Jan 11, 2025 88   Seton Hall W 59-55 65%    
  Jan 14, 2025 17   @ Creighton L 63-73 19%    
  Jan 17, 2025 69   @ Villanova L 64-68 37%    
  Jan 25, 2025 116   Georgetown W 71-64 73%    
  Jan 28, 2025 88   @ Seton Hall L 56-58 44%    
  Feb 01, 2025 16   @ St. John's L 64-74 19%    
  Feb 05, 2025 17   Creighton L 66-70 36%    
  Feb 08, 2025 85   @ Butler L 67-69 42%    
  Feb 12, 2025 36   Xavier L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 15, 2025 69   Villanova W 67-65 58%    
  Feb 19, 2025 116   @ Georgetown W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 25, 2025 15   @ Marquette L 62-72 19%    
  Mar 01, 2025 2   Connecticut L 60-70 20%    
  Mar 05, 2025 110   DePaul W 71-65 72%    
  Mar 08, 2025 36   @ Xavier L 66-73 27%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 2.7 3.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 8.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.0 3.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.2 4.4 1.3 0.1 0.0 13.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.9 4.2 1.2 0.1 14.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.3 5.7 3.9 0.9 0.0 14.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 3.0 5.0 3.1 0.6 0.0 12.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.0 3.7 1.9 0.4 0.0 10.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.9 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.5 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.0 5.7 8.1 10.7 12.3 13.0 11.9 10.5 8.4 6.1 4.0 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 95.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0
17-3 75.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 41.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 19.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 28.6% 71.4% 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.2% 100.0% 20.6% 79.4% 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.5% 99.5% 14.7% 84.9% 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
15-5 1.2% 98.5% 8.5% 90.0% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.4%
14-6 2.3% 93.2% 8.2% 85.0% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 92.6%
13-7 4.0% 79.6% 6.1% 73.5% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.8 78.2%
12-8 6.1% 64.2% 4.2% 60.1% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.0 2.2 62.7%
11-9 8.4% 43.7% 2.5% 41.2% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.3 0.1 4.7 42.3%
10-10 10.5% 22.7% 1.8% 20.9% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.2 8.2 21.3%
9-11 11.9% 6.1% 1.0% 5.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 11.2 5.2%
8-12 13.0% 1.4% 0.6% 0.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.8 0.8%
7-13 12.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.3 0.2%
6-14 10.7% 0.2% 0.2% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.7
5-15 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 8.1
4-16 5.7% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 5.7
3-17 3.0% 3.0
2-18 1.4% 1.4
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 18.2% 1.6% 16.7% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.7 2.3 3.2 3.9 4.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 81.8 16.9%