South Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.9#114
Expected Predictive Rating+0.5#166
Pace71.7#94
Improvement-0.6#212

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#110
First Shot-0.2#181
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#31
Layup/Dunks-0.4#202
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#204
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#114
Freethrows-1.1#254
Improvement+0.6#141

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#159
First Shot-2.3#252
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#15
Layups/Dunks+4.8#42
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#328
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.1#352
Freethrows+1.1#102
Improvement-1.3#252
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.1% 30.6% 24.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.5
.500 or above 94.8% 97.9% 89.7%
.500 or above in Conference 96.9% 98.8% 93.6%
Conference Champion 18.2% 24.2% 8.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round28.1% 30.6% 24.0%
Second Round2.9% 3.5% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UMKC (Away) - 62.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 32 - 6
Quad 33 - 45 - 10
Quad 414 - 218 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 74   McNeese St. W 80-73 33%     1 - 0 +14.5 +7.5 +6.6
  Nov 08, 2024 293   Long Beach St. W 80-79 89%     2 - 0 -9.4 +1.2 -10.5
  Nov 14, 2024 166   Northern Colorado L 69-78 62%     2 - 1 -9.2 -7.3 -1.7
  Nov 20, 2024 258   Southern Miss W 101-76 85%     3 - 1 +16.8 +7.4 +5.1
  Nov 24, 2024 116   Duquesne W 71-60 50%     4 - 1 +13.9 +5.3 +9.3
  Nov 25, 2024 57   Boise St. L 82-83 26%     4 - 2 +8.8 +12.9 -4.1
  Nov 26, 2024 244   Missouri St. W 75-55 76%     5 - 2 +15.4 +5.4 +11.3
  Dec 04, 2024 226   @ Montana L 67-71 65%     5 - 3 -4.9 -9.4 +4.6
  Dec 07, 2024 257   Eastern Washington W 74-53 85%     6 - 3 +12.9 -1.5 +15.1
  Dec 11, 2024 68   @ Nevada L 63-77 23%     6 - 4 -3.1 +6.0 -11.5
  Dec 13, 2024 94   @ Colorado L 70-81 29%     6 - 5 -2.2 +8.5 -11.6
  Dec 29, 2024 7   @ Alabama L 82-105 5%     6 - 6 -0.8 +10.1 -9.0
  Jan 02, 2025 340   Denver W 91-70 94%     7 - 6 1 - 0 +6.7 +2.2 +2.7
  Jan 08, 2025 125   @ St. Thomas L 72-73 41%     7 - 7 1 - 1 +4.2 +5.1 -1.0
  Jan 11, 2025 222   @ Nebraska Omaha L 80-87 64%     7 - 8 1 - 2 -7.6 +3.7 -11.2
  Jan 16, 2025 277   North Dakota W 109-73 87%     8 - 8 2 - 2 +26.7 +21.3 +3.4
  Jan 18, 2025 311   Oral Roberts W 84-70 90%     9 - 8 3 - 2 +2.7 +2.2 +0.5
  Jan 23, 2025 223   @ UMKC W 73-69 62%    
  Jan 25, 2025 268   South Dakota W 92-80 87%    
  Jan 30, 2025 112   @ North Dakota St. L 76-79 38%    
  Feb 01, 2025 277   @ North Dakota W 83-76 73%    
  Feb 06, 2025 125   St. Thomas W 81-78 63%    
  Feb 13, 2025 222   Nebraska Omaha W 81-72 81%    
  Feb 15, 2025 268   @ South Dakota W 89-83 71%    
  Feb 19, 2025 112   North Dakota St. W 79-76 60%    
  Feb 23, 2025 223   UMKC W 76-67 80%    
  Feb 27, 2025 311   @ Oral Roberts W 84-75 78%    
  Mar 01, 2025 340   @ Denver W 81-69 85%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1.2 5.9 8.2 3.0 18.2 1st
2nd 0.1 2.1 10.5 12.8 3.9 0.3 29.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.5 10.1 9.9 2.0 0.0 24.8 3rd
4th 0.3 2.7 8.0 7.0 1.4 0.0 19.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 2.8 1.7 0.3 6.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.3 6.0 12.3 19.5 22.9 20.8 12.1 3.3 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 90.0% 3.0    2.2 0.7
13-3 67.7% 8.2    4.3 3.6 0.3 0.0
12-4 28.6% 5.9    1.3 3.1 1.4 0.2
11-5 5.0% 1.2    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 18.2% 18.2 7.9 7.7 2.3 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 3.3% 49.2% 49.2% 11.8 0.4 1.1 0.1 1.7
13-3 12.1% 41.9% 41.9% 12.6 0.1 2.1 2.7 0.2 7.0
12-4 20.8% 34.6% 34.6% 13.1 0.0 1.4 4.0 1.7 0.1 13.6
11-5 22.9% 28.4% 28.4% 13.3 0.5 3.5 2.4 0.2 16.4
10-6 19.5% 21.3% 21.3% 13.8 0.1 1.3 2.2 0.5 15.3
9-7 12.3% 18.7% 18.7% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.6 0.0 10.0
8-8 6.0% 15.8% 15.8% 14.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.0 5.1
7-9 2.3% 13.8% 13.8% 15.3 0.2 0.1 1.9
6-10 0.7% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.1 0.7
5-11 0.1% 0.1
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 28.1% 28.1% 0.0% 13.2 0.5 5.2 12.0 8.2 2.0 0.2 71.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 11.8 27.2 65.4 7.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%