St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.1#336
Expected Predictive Rating-7.5#293
Pace70.7#129
Improvement-1.0#250

Offense
Total Offense-5.8#333
First Shot-3.3#276
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#314
Layup/Dunks-2.6#285
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#99
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#114
Freethrows-4.0#355
Improvement+1.0#95

Defense
Total Defense-5.3#330
First Shot-4.9#329
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#217
Layups/Dunks+0.7#143
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#273
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.5#354
Freethrows+1.9#57
Improvement-2.0#326
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.9% 7.6% 5.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 10.5% 21.7% 7.6%
.500 or above in Conference 49.4% 58.4% 47.1%
Conference Champion 5.7% 8.5% 5.0%
Last Place in Conference 13.3% 9.1% 14.4%
First Four5.6% 6.9% 5.3%
First Round2.5% 3.5% 2.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Robert Morris (Away) - 20.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 30 - 20 - 7
Quad 410 - 1110 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 46   @ Dayton L 57-87 2%     0 - 1 -16.4 -11.5 -4.7
  Nov 08, 2024 35   @ Clemson L 62-88 2%     0 - 2 -10.7 -4.9 -5.2
  Nov 10, 2024 295   @ Campbell W 65-64 25%     1 - 2 -3.2 -7.1 +4.0
  Nov 12, 2024 30   @ Penn St. L 62-92 2%     1 - 3 -14.4 -11.4 +1.0
  Nov 16, 2024 253   @ Mount St. Mary's L 58-66 20%     1 - 4 -10.1 -13.2 +2.8
  Nov 23, 2024 71   @ Georgetown L 65-82 3%     1 - 5 -6.0 -2.8 -2.9
  Nov 26, 2024 244   Lehigh W 88-78 37%     2 - 5 +2.3 +9.9 -7.5
  Dec 01, 2024 204   Radford L 70-79 28%     2 - 6 -14.0 +0.5 -15.4
  Dec 14, 2024 320   @ Niagara L 66-69 31%     2 - 7 -8.9 -3.8 -5.4
  Dec 17, 2024 19   @ Maryland L 57-111 1%     2 - 8 -35.9 -7.2 -27.7
  Dec 21, 2024 259   @ Robert Morris L 67-76 21%    
  Jan 03, 2025 221   Central Connecticut St. L 65-70 32%    
  Jan 05, 2025 322   Stonehill W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 10, 2025 358   Mercyhurst W 72-66 71%    
  Jan 12, 2025 334   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 78-82 36%    
  Jan 18, 2025 340   @ LIU Brooklyn L 70-73 40%    
  Jan 20, 2025 309   @ Wagner L 59-65 30%    
  Jan 24, 2025 340   LIU Brooklyn W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 26, 2025 309   Wagner W 62-61 51%    
  Jan 30, 2025 358   @ Mercyhurst L 68-69 50%    
  Feb 06, 2025 332   Le Moyne W 74-72 58%    
  Feb 08, 2025 360   @ Chicago St. W 73-72 51%    
  Feb 13, 2025 322   @ Stonehill L 68-73 33%    
  Feb 15, 2025 221   @ Central Connecticut St. L 62-73 16%    
  Feb 20, 2025 332   @ Le Moyne L 71-75 36%    
  Feb 22, 2025 334   Fairleigh Dickinson W 81-79 58%    
  Mar 01, 2025 360   Chicago St. W 75-69 71%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.9 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 3.9 3.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 10.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 5.5 4.3 1.1 0.1 12.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 6.6 5.0 0.9 0.0 13.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 6.1 5.6 1.0 0.0 13.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 5.2 6.1 1.1 0.0 13.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.1 5.7 1.4 0.0 12.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 3.3 4.4 1.5 0.0 10.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.5 2.4 0.8 0.0 7.5 9th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.5 6.5 10.1 13.4 15.2 15.1 12.8 9.6 6.2 3.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-2 96.7% 0.5    0.4 0.0
13-3 79.2% 1.3    0.9 0.3 0.0
12-4 53.0% 1.9    1.0 0.8 0.1 0.0
11-5 23.8% 1.5    0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1
10-6 5.0% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 5.7% 5.7 2.9 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0
15-1 0.1% 29.0% 29.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-2 0.5% 24.2% 24.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4
13-3 1.6% 17.7% 17.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3 1.3
12-4 3.5% 16.2% 16.2% 16.0 0.0 0.6 3.0
11-5 6.2% 13.4% 13.4% 16.0 0.0 0.8 5.4
10-6 9.6% 10.4% 10.4% 16.0 1.0 8.6
9-7 12.8% 7.8% 7.8% 16.0 1.0 11.8
8-8 15.1% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.9 14.2
7-9 15.2% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.6 14.5
6-10 13.4% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.4 13.1
5-11 10.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 9.9
4-12 6.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 6.4
3-13 3.5% 3.5
2-14 1.4% 1.4
1-15 0.4% 0.4
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 94.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%