St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.2#342
Expected Predictive Rating-3.6#234
Pace71.9#102
Improvement+0.0#179

Offense
Total Offense-8.1#354
First Shot-4.8#305
After Offensive Rebound-3.2#337
Layup/Dunks+1.3#127
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#308
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#169
Freethrows-3.9#336
Improvement-0.7#283

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#309
First Shot-6.1#338
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#58
Layups/Dunks-4.6#319
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#177
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#259
Freethrows+0.2#179
Improvement+0.7#92
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.7% 9.7% 5.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 13.3% 33.1% 12.5%
.500 or above in Conference 45.2% 60.5% 44.6%
Conference Champion 5.5% 10.9% 5.3%
Last Place in Conference 16.0% 7.9% 16.3%
First Four5.4% 8.4% 5.3%
First Round2.1% 4.4% 2.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgetown (Away) - 3.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 31 - 21 - 7
Quad 49 - 1110 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 60   @ Dayton L 57-87 2%     0 - 1 -18.1 -9.8 -8.1
  Nov 08, 2024 49   @ Clemson L 62-88 2%     0 - 2 -13.5 -7.0 -5.8
  Nov 10, 2024 257   @ Campbell W 65-64 16%     1 - 2 -0.8 -7.0 +6.2
  Nov 12, 2024 32   @ Penn St. L 62-92 1%     1 - 3 -14.6 -12.4 +1.8
  Nov 16, 2024 278   @ Mount St. Mary's L 58-66 19%     1 - 4 -11.1 -12.5 +1.1
  Nov 23, 2024 116   @ Georgetown L 63-82 4%    
  Nov 26, 2024 283   Lehigh L 72-75 39%    
  Dec 01, 2024 226   Radford L 68-74 29%    
  Dec 14, 2024 324   @ Niagara L 69-75 29%    
  Dec 17, 2024 30   @ Maryland L 56-84 1%    
  Jan 03, 2025 254   Central Connecticut St. L 67-71 35%    
  Jan 05, 2025 343   Stonehill W 71-68 61%    
  Jan 10, 2025 359   Mercyhurst W 68-63 68%    
  Jan 12, 2025 347   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 77-80 41%    
  Jan 16, 2025 338   @ LIU Brooklyn L 72-76 36%    
  Jan 20, 2025 281   @ Wagner L 56-65 21%    
  Jan 24, 2025 338   LIU Brooklyn W 75-73 57%    
  Jan 26, 2025 281   Wagner L 59-62 39%    
  Jan 30, 2025 359   @ Mercyhurst L 65-66 47%    
  Feb 06, 2025 337   Le Moyne W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 08, 2025 350   @ Chicago St. L 71-73 42%    
  Feb 13, 2025 343   @ Stonehill L 68-71 39%    
  Feb 15, 2025 254   @ Central Connecticut St. L 64-74 18%    
  Feb 20, 2025 337   @ Le Moyne L 69-73 35%    
  Feb 22, 2025 347   Fairleigh Dickinson W 80-77 62%    
  Mar 01, 2025 350   Chicago St. W 74-70 63%    
Projected Record 9 - 17 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.7 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 5.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 3.0 3.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 9.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 4.7 4.2 1.3 0.1 11.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 5.9 4.7 1.1 0.1 13.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 5.9 5.2 0.9 0.0 13.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 5.4 5.5 1.1 0.0 13.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.9 5.4 1.2 0.0 12.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.1 4.3 1.1 0.0 11.5 8th
9th 0.2 0.9 2.3 3.3 2.3 0.7 0.0 9.7 9th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.5 5.1 7.7 11.1 13.2 14.1 13.6 11.3 8.6 5.8 3.4 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-2 95.9% 0.6    0.6 0.1
13-3 82.0% 1.4    1.0 0.4 0.0
12-4 48.6% 1.7    0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
11-5 21.7% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0
10-6 4.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 5.5% 5.5 2.8 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.2% 41.2% 41.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-2 0.7% 25.9% 25.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5
13-3 1.7% 24.2% 24.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4 1.3
12-4 3.4% 18.9% 18.9% 16.0 0.0 0.6 2.8
11-5 5.8% 14.5% 14.5% 16.0 0.8 5.0
10-6 8.6% 10.0% 10.0% 16.0 0.9 7.7
9-7 11.3% 7.8% 7.8% 16.0 0.9 10.4
8-8 13.6% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.7 12.9
7-9 14.1% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.6 13.5
6-10 13.2% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.3 12.9
5-11 11.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 11.0
4-12 7.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.7
3-13 5.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.1
2-14 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.5
1-15 0.9% 0.9
0-16 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 5.6 94.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%