UMKC
Summit League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.7#217
Expected Predictive Rating+5.1#108
Pace66.5#264
Improvement-0.1#187

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#246
First Shot-3.2#268
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#131
Layup/Dunks-10.7#363
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#30
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#73
Freethrows+0.4#162
Improvement-0.3#218

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#179
First Shot+7.0#23
After Offensive Rebounds-7.2#364
Layups/Dunks+11.6#4
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#343
3 Pt Jumpshots-10.1#360
Freethrows+9.3#1
Improvement+0.2#157
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.6% 15.0% 9.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.3 14.9
.500 or above 52.7% 63.3% 37.1%
.500 or above in Conference 63.5% 69.5% 54.7%
Conference Champion 15.8% 18.9% 11.1%
Last Place in Conference 9.4% 6.8% 13.3%
First Four1.6% 1.3% 1.9%
First Round11.9% 14.4% 8.2%
Second Round0.7% 1.0% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: American (Neutral) - 59.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 33 - 53 - 9
Quad 412 - 614 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2024 12   @ Iowa St. L 56-82 3%     0 - 1 -6.6 -1.8 -6.4
  Nov 16, 2024 17   @ Creighton L 56-79 4%     0 - 2 -5.7 -9.6 +4.0
  Nov 22, 2024 260   American W 68-65 59%    
  Nov 23, 2024 246   Albany W 75-73 56%    
  Nov 30, 2024 320   Southeast Missouri St. W 76-67 80%    
  Dec 04, 2024 284   Idaho W 73-66 72%    
  Dec 07, 2024 157   @ Montana St. L 68-74 29%    
  Dec 10, 2024 289   @ Portland W 70-69 54%    
  Dec 14, 2024 262   Bowling Green W 74-68 70%    
  Dec 17, 2024 94   @ Wichita St. L 65-76 16%    
  Dec 21, 2024 188   East Tennessee St. W 71-69 55%    
  Jan 02, 2025 239   South Dakota W 76-72 64%    
  Jan 04, 2025 249   Oral Roberts W 74-69 67%    
  Jan 08, 2025 259   @ Nebraska Omaha L 70-71 48%    
  Jan 16, 2025 241   @ North Dakota St. L 69-71 44%    
  Jan 18, 2025 253   @ North Dakota L 70-71 47%    
  Jan 23, 2025 153   South Dakota St. L 72-73 50%    
  Jan 25, 2025 168   St. Thomas W 70-69 53%    
  Jan 30, 2025 294   @ Denver W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 01, 2025 249   @ Oral Roberts L 71-72 46%    
  Feb 06, 2025 241   North Dakota St. W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 253   North Dakota W 73-68 67%    
  Feb 13, 2025 239   @ South Dakota L 73-75 44%    
  Feb 19, 2025 259   Nebraska Omaha W 73-68 68%    
  Feb 23, 2025 153   @ South Dakota St. L 70-76 30%    
  Feb 27, 2025 294   Denver W 76-69 74%    
  Mar 01, 2025 168   @ St. Thomas L 67-72 33%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.3 4.1 2.7 1.1 0.3 15.8 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 4.6 5.4 2.8 0.8 0.1 14.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 5.3 5.5 1.8 0.2 13.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 5.2 5.2 1.3 0.1 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.3 5.1 1.1 0.1 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.3 4.8 1.2 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.9 4.0 1.3 0.0 8.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 3.1 1.1 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.7 1.5 0.6 0.1 5.5 9th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.5 7.1 9.2 11.3 12.7 12.7 12.1 9.9 7.2 4.8 2.7 1.1 0.3 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
15-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
14-2 97.8% 2.7    2.4 0.2 0.0
13-3 84.4% 4.1    3.1 0.9 0.0
12-4 59.8% 4.3    2.4 1.7 0.2 0.0
11-5 26.8% 2.7    0.8 1.2 0.6 0.1
10-6 5.4% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 15.8% 15.8 10.1 4.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.3% 56.1% 55.3% 0.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.0%
15-1 1.1% 48.3% 48.3% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6
14-2 2.7% 38.1% 38.1% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.7
13-3 4.8% 31.9% 31.9% 13.7 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.3
12-4 7.2% 27.5% 27.5% 14.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.1 5.3
11-5 9.9% 20.4% 20.4% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.2 7.9
10-6 12.1% 15.0% 15.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 10.3
9-7 12.7% 10.8% 10.8% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 11.3
8-8 12.7% 8.2% 8.2% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 11.6
7-9 11.3% 5.6% 5.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 10.7
6-10 9.2% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 8.9
5-11 7.1% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 7.0
4-12 4.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 4.4
3-13 2.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.6
2-14 1.3% 1.3
1-15 0.5% 0.5
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 12.6% 12.6% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.2 3.7 2.9 87.4 0.0%