UTEP
Conference USA
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.8#174
Expected Predictive Rating+4.9#113
Pace73.0#82
Improvement+2.6#9

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#225
First Shot+0.6#156
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#298
Layup/Dunks-6.8#347
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#167
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#47
Freethrows+2.2#71
Improvement+2.2#5

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#138
First Shot-0.5#192
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#84
Layups/Dunks-2.5#259
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#9
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#121
Freethrows-3.2#329
Improvement+0.4#132
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.2% 5.2% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.9 13.5
.500 or above 45.2% 54.5% 28.1%
.500 or above in Conference 40.8% 46.2% 31.0%
Conference Champion 3.8% 4.8% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.0% 11.2% 19.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round4.2% 5.1% 2.5%
Second Round0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Jose St. (Neutral) - 64.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 42 - 6
Quad 35 - 66 - 12
Quad 47 - 313 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 136   @ Utah Valley L 60-89 30%     0 - 1 -24.3 -13.9 -7.7
  Nov 20, 2024 130   @ UC Santa Barbara W 79-76 29%     1 - 1 +8.1 +9.6 -1.4
  Nov 25, 2024 250   San Jose St. W 72-68 65%    
  Nov 26, 2024 263   Long Beach St. W 72-67 66%    
  Nov 27, 2024 171   UNC Greensboro L 69-70 50%    
  Dec 07, 2024 135   Seattle W 72-71 52%    
  Dec 11, 2024 46   @ Louisville L 68-82 11%    
  Dec 16, 2024 318   Tarleton St. W 78-67 84%    
  Dec 20, 2024 319   Jackson St. W 78-67 84%    
  Jan 02, 2025 87   Louisiana Tech L 68-72 36%    
  Jan 04, 2025 117   Sam Houston St. L 74-75 45%    
  Jan 11, 2025 163   New Mexico St. W 72-69 59%    
  Jan 16, 2025 80   @ Liberty L 61-72 17%    
  Jan 18, 2025 275   @ Florida International W 77-75 57%    
  Jan 23, 2025 183   Jacksonville St. W 70-66 62%    
  Jan 25, 2025 161   Kennesaw St. W 84-82 58%    
  Jan 30, 2025 122   @ Western Kentucky L 74-81 28%    
  Feb 01, 2025 164   @ Middle Tennessee L 70-73 38%    
  Feb 08, 2025 163   @ New Mexico St. L 69-72 39%    
  Feb 13, 2025 275   Florida International W 80-72 76%    
  Feb 15, 2025 80   Liberty L 64-69 34%    
  Feb 20, 2025 161   @ Kennesaw St. L 81-85 38%    
  Feb 22, 2025 183   @ Jacksonville St. L 67-69 42%    
  Feb 27, 2025 122   Western Kentucky L 77-78 48%    
  Mar 01, 2025 164   Middle Tennessee W 73-70 59%    
  Mar 06, 2025 117   @ Sam Houston St. L 71-78 27%    
  Mar 08, 2025 87   @ Louisiana Tech L 65-75 20%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.1 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 6.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.6 2.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 8.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.5 2.5 0.5 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.2 2.8 0.4 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.0 5.6 2.9 0.4 0.0 12.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.3 5.7 3.0 0.4 0.0 13.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 3.6 5.5 2.5 0.4 0.0 13.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.9 4.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 12.4 9th
10th 0.2 1.0 2.1 2.6 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 8.7 10th
Total 0.2 1.0 2.4 4.4 6.9 9.1 11.2 11.9 12.0 11.2 9.6 7.6 5.2 3.5 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 97.6% 0.4    0.4 0.0
15-3 82.0% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
14-4 54.3% 1.1    0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 26.9% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.8% 3.8 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 45.8% 37.5% 8.3% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13.3%
16-2 0.4% 38.8% 35.8% 3.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 4.7%
15-3 1.0% 30.8% 30.1% 0.7% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.7 1.0%
14-4 2.0% 20.8% 20.5% 0.3% 12.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.6 0.3%
13-5 3.5% 16.5% 16.4% 0.1% 12.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.9 0.1%
12-6 5.2% 11.4% 11.4% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.6
11-7 7.6% 8.3% 8.3% 13.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 7.0
10-8 9.6% 5.4% 5.4% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.1
9-9 11.2% 3.9% 3.9% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.8
8-10 12.0% 2.3% 2.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.7
7-11 11.9% 1.3% 1.3% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.7
6-12 11.2% 0.6% 0.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.2
5-13 9.1% 0.2% 0.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 9.1
4-14 6.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.9
3-15 4.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.4
2-16 2.4% 2.4
1-17 1.0% 1.0
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 95.8 0.0%