Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#276
Expected Predictive Rating-15.6#349
Pace69.1#180
Improvement-0.6#258

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#238
First Shot-6.6#338
After Offensive Rebound+4.3#19
Layup/Dunks-3.0#279
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#124
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.2#335
Freethrows+1.6#106
Improvement-1.0#313

Defense
Total Defense-3.6#295
First Shot-5.1#323
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#86
Layups/Dunks-4.9#325
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#246
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#177
Freethrows+0.3#160
Improvement+0.4#133
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.6% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.5 14.9
.500 or above 9.0% 10.2% 2.3%
.500 or above in Conference 11.7% 12.8% 5.7%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 34.9% 32.8% 47.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lindenwood (Home) - 85.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 51 - 7
Quad 33 - 93 - 16
Quad 46 - 510 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 80   Liberty L 63-83 12%     0 - 1 -12.8 -1.9 -11.7
  Nov 12, 2024 222   Cleveland St. L 67-75 50%     0 - 2 -13.9 -5.8 -8.3
  Nov 21, 2024 355   Lindenwood W 78-67 85%    
  Nov 24, 2024 315   Eastern Illinois W 74-68 70%    
  Nov 27, 2024 325   Northern Illinois W 74-68 72%    
  Nov 29, 2024 110   @ DePaul L 67-80 12%    
  Dec 04, 2024 106   Drake L 68-75 26%    
  Dec 14, 2024 204   Central Michigan L 69-70 47%    
  Dec 17, 2024 21   @ Ohio St. L 59-82 2%    
  Dec 20, 2024 323   @ Western Michigan W 74-73 50%    
  Dec 29, 2024 95   @ Bradley L 64-78 10%    
  Jan 01, 2025 167   @ Missouri St. L 67-75 23%    
  Jan 04, 2025 119   Northern Iowa L 69-75 29%    
  Jan 08, 2025 191   Indiana St. L 79-80 45%    
  Jan 11, 2025 111   @ Murray St. L 64-77 13%    
  Jan 14, 2025 141   @ Belmont L 73-83 18%    
  Jan 18, 2025 156   Illinois-Chicago L 75-78 40%    
  Jan 22, 2025 106   @ Drake L 65-78 13%    
  Jan 25, 2025 299   Evansville W 76-72 65%    
  Jan 28, 2025 132   Southern Illinois L 69-74 34%    
  Feb 01, 2025 173   @ Illinois St. L 65-73 24%    
  Feb 05, 2025 191   @ Indiana St. L 76-83 26%    
  Feb 08, 2025 111   Murray St. L 67-74 28%    
  Feb 12, 2025 141   Belmont L 76-80 35%    
  Feb 16, 2025 299   @ Evansville L 73-75 44%    
  Feb 19, 2025 167   Missouri St. L 70-72 42%    
  Feb 22, 2025 132   @ Southern Illinois L 66-77 18%    
  Feb 26, 2025 95   Bradley L 67-75 24%    
  Mar 02, 2025 156   @ Illinois-Chicago L 72-81 22%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.1 4th
5th 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.9 0.7 0.1 3.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.6 1.2 0.1 5.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.5 2.0 0.3 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.4 4.7 3.0 0.5 0.0 11.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.1 5.7 3.3 0.7 0.0 15.4 10th
11th 0.1 1.1 3.7 6.9 6.8 3.4 0.8 0.1 22.8 11th
12th 1.3 4.2 6.6 6.7 4.5 1.9 0.3 0.0 25.4 12th
Total 1.3 4.3 7.7 10.6 12.7 13.3 12.1 10.8 9.0 6.5 4.5 3.0 1.9 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 92.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 66.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-5 53.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 21.2% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 3.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 16.7% 16.7% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.3% 19.5% 19.5% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-6 0.6% 6.5% 6.5% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
13-7 1.2% 7.7% 7.7% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1
12-8 1.9% 4.6% 4.6% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
11-9 3.0% 1.9% 1.9% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9
10-10 4.5% 1.3% 1.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5
9-11 6.5% 0.5% 0.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 6.5
8-12 9.0% 0.4% 0.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 9.0
7-13 10.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.7
6-14 12.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.1
5-15 13.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.3
4-16 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.7
3-17 10.6% 10.6
2-18 7.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.7
1-19 4.3% 4.3
0-20 1.3% 1.3
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%