Vermont
America East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.6#149
Expected Predictive Rating-0.9#198
Pace60.4#356
Improvement-0.6#260

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#241
First Shot+0.6#154
After Offensive Rebound-2.9#326
Layup/Dunks-3.5#291
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#299
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.2#22
Freethrows-0.6#215
Improvement+0.1#161

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#90
First Shot+3.7#74
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#236
Layups/Dunks-0.5#185
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#188
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#142
Freethrows+2.6#60
Improvement-0.7#281
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.7% 29.3% 22.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.0 14.6
.500 or above 89.1% 93.7% 81.7%
.500 or above in Conference 94.2% 95.7% 91.8%
Conference Champion 35.2% 39.0% 29.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four1.5% 1.1% 2.3%
First Round26.0% 28.9% 21.5%
Second Round2.2% 2.7% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Delaware (Neutral) - 61.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 33 - 44 - 7
Quad 416 - 520 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 103   @ UAB W 67-62 25%     1 - 0 +12.6 +3.4 +9.7
  Nov 06, 2024 3   @ Auburn L 43-94 3%     1 - 1 -28.4 -20.2 -8.4
  Nov 09, 2024 230   @ Merrimack L 51-65 54%     1 - 2 -14.4 -12.4 -3.3
  Nov 15, 2024 217   @ Iona L 59-62 51%     1 - 3 -2.7 -10.7 +7.9
  Nov 19, 2024 330   Buffalo W 78-67 89%     2 - 3 -1.8 +3.9 -4.9
  Nov 23, 2024 213   Delaware W 68-65 61%    
  Nov 24, 2024 274   Fairfield W 66-60 73%    
  Nov 30, 2024 148   Northeastern W 66-63 60%    
  Dec 03, 2024 221   Brown W 68-61 73%    
  Dec 07, 2024 108   @ Yale L 61-68 28%    
  Dec 15, 2024 189   @ Colgate L 61-62 46%    
  Dec 18, 2024 228   Miami (OH) W 68-61 73%    
  Dec 21, 2024 339   @ Dartmouth W 68-59 80%    
  Jan 04, 2025 341   @ New Hampshire W 69-60 81%    
  Jan 09, 2025 154   @ Umass Lowell L 66-69 41%    
  Jan 11, 2025 159   @ Bryant L 69-71 41%    
  Jan 16, 2025 329   Binghamton W 70-57 88%    
  Jan 23, 2025 360   NJIT W 70-52 95%    
  Jan 25, 2025 311   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77-65 85%    
  Jan 30, 2025 329   @ Binghamton W 67-60 74%    
  Feb 01, 2025 241   Maine W 64-56 75%    
  Feb 08, 2025 248   @ Albany W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 13, 2025 341   New Hampshire W 72-57 91%    
  Feb 15, 2025 241   @ Maine W 61-59 56%    
  Feb 20, 2025 159   Bryant W 72-68 62%    
  Feb 22, 2025 154   Umass Lowell W 69-66 61%    
  Feb 27, 2025 360   @ NJIT W 67-55 86%    
  Mar 01, 2025 311   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 74-68 69%    
  Mar 04, 2025 248   Albany W 73-65 75%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 5.5 10.4 10.2 6.0 1.6 35.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.3 7.7 9.5 4.7 0.7 25.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.4 6.7 6.2 1.8 0.1 17.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.8 3.3 0.7 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.8 1.8 0.2 6.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.1 5.8 9.2 12.6 16.0 16.9 15.2 10.9 6.0 1.6 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
15-1 100.0% 6.0    5.8 0.2
14-2 93.4% 10.2    8.3 1.9 0.0
13-3 68.5% 10.4    6.1 3.9 0.4
12-4 32.9% 5.5    1.9 2.6 1.0 0.0
11-5 8.7% 1.4    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
10-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 35.2% 35.2 23.8 9.1 2.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.6% 61.5% 61.5% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6
15-1 6.0% 55.8% 55.8% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.6
14-2 10.9% 43.4% 43.4% 13.5 0.5 1.8 1.9 0.5 0.0 6.2
13-3 15.2% 37.0% 37.0% 14.1 0.1 1.2 2.5 1.6 0.2 9.6
12-4 16.9% 27.6% 27.6% 14.6 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.1 0.5 12.2
11-5 16.0% 21.6% 21.6% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 0.9 12.5
10-6 12.6% 16.3% 16.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 10.6
9-7 9.2% 11.2% 11.2% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 8.2
8-8 5.8% 8.7% 8.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 5.3
7-9 3.1% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2 2.9
6-10 1.7% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 1.6
5-11 0.7% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7
4-12 0.3% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 26.7% 26.7% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.4 8.0 7.2 4.1 73.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.2 4.5 4.5 9.1 11.4 9.1 40.9 20.5