Weber St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.1#225
Expected Predictive Rating-7.0#283
Pace64.4#317
Improvement+0.8#93

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#216
First Shot-3.4#272
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#87
Layup/Dunks-4.9#318
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#48
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#208
Freethrows-0.6#218
Improvement+0.1#153

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#223
First Shot+3.4#84
After Offensive Rebounds-4.9#355
Layups/Dunks-2.1#245
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#14
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#156
Freethrows+1.4#106
Improvement+0.7#89
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.2% 14.1% 9.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.4 15.1
.500 or above 36.1% 57.8% 30.9%
.500 or above in Conference 61.3% 73.4% 58.4%
Conference Champion 12.2% 19.3% 10.4%
Last Place in Conference 8.1% 4.4% 9.0%
First Four2.4% 1.5% 2.6%
First Round9.2% 13.5% 8.2%
Second Round0.5% 0.9% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Irvine (Home) - 19.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 63 - 10
Quad 411 - 613 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 98   @ Oregon St. L 48-76 14%     0 - 1 -19.7 -15.2 -7.0
  Nov 13, 2024 39   @ Nevada L 58-88 6%     0 - 2 -15.6 -2.4 -15.9
  Nov 17, 2024 174   @ Hawaii L 68-73 OT 30%     0 - 3 -2.8 -4.0 +1.2
  Nov 22, 2024 57   UC Irvine L 63-72 19%    
  Nov 29, 2024 264   Bowling Green W 72-70 58%    
  Dec 04, 2024 242   North Dakota St. W 71-67 64%    
  Dec 07, 2024 255   @ North Dakota L 69-70 45%    
  Dec 13, 2024 304   @ Utah Tech W 72-70 56%    
  Dec 21, 2024 137   Utah Valley L 66-68 44%    
  Dec 29, 2024 40   @ Oregon L 60-77 6%    
  Jan 02, 2025 173   @ Northern Colorado L 70-75 31%    
  Jan 04, 2025 277   @ Northern Arizona L 67-68 50%    
  Jan 11, 2025 236   @ Idaho St. L 63-65 41%    
  Jan 16, 2025 211   Montana W 70-68 58%    
  Jan 18, 2025 155   Montana St. L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 23, 2025 218   @ Portland St. L 74-77 39%    
  Jan 25, 2025 307   @ Sacramento St. W 65-63 56%    
  Jan 30, 2025 287   Idaho W 72-66 71%    
  Feb 01, 2025 245   Eastern Washington W 77-73 64%    
  Feb 03, 2025 277   Northern Arizona W 71-65 69%    
  Feb 08, 2025 236   Idaho St. W 66-62 62%    
  Feb 13, 2025 155   @ Montana St. L 68-74 29%    
  Feb 15, 2025 211   @ Montana L 67-71 38%    
  Feb 20, 2025 307   Sacramento St. W 68-60 75%    
  Feb 22, 2025 218   Portland St. W 77-74 59%    
  Feb 27, 2025 245   @ Eastern Washington L 74-76 43%    
  Mar 01, 2025 287   @ Idaho W 70-69 51%    
  Mar 03, 2025 173   Northern Colorado W 73-72 52%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.8 3.2 2.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 12.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.4 3.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 12.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.9 5.2 3.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 12.5 3rd
4th 0.3 2.7 5.5 2.9 0.6 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.2 2.4 5.4 2.9 0.4 0.0 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.7 3.1 0.3 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.4 3.0 0.4 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.5 2.6 0.4 0.0 8.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.6 2.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 6.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.7 10th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.3 5.4 7.2 9.4 10.8 12.0 12.0 11.1 9.5 7.3 4.6 3.0 1.4 0.4 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
16-2 98.9% 1.4    1.3 0.1
15-3 89.5% 2.7    2.2 0.5 0.0
14-4 69.5% 3.2    2.0 1.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 39.2% 2.8    1.1 1.3 0.4 0.0
12-6 13.8% 1.3    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.2% 12.2 7.4 3.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 51.4% 51.4% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 55.1% 55.1% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-2 1.4% 43.0% 43.0% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8
15-3 3.0% 32.8% 32.8% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 2.0
14-4 4.6% 27.6% 27.6% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 3.3
13-5 7.3% 21.6% 21.6% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.2 5.7
12-6 9.5% 16.3% 16.3% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 7.9
11-7 11.1% 12.4% 12.4% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 9.7
10-8 12.0% 9.2% 9.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 10.9
9-9 12.0% 6.1% 6.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 11.2
8-10 10.8% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3 10.5
7-11 9.4% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.2 9.2
6-12 7.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 7.1
5-13 5.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 5.3
4-14 3.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.3
3-15 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.7
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 10.2% 10.2% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.1 3.0 3.8 89.8 0.0%