California
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +8.0 73
Results Rating +11.4 52
Consistency 0.15 144
Pace 69.0 166
Improvement -3.1 296

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 93 B- C- B B D+
Defense B 53 B+ B- C B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 322 B- 62% 89 -1.9 247
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% 204 C+ 39% 143 +1.1 115
Three Pointers 44% 122 B+ 38% 27 +4.2 48
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 281 B +4.1 64
1st FG Attempt B- 1.09 78
Second Chance D+ 27.7% 255 C+ 1.07 109 C- 0.30 210
Opponents' Steals A- 7.2% 12
Other Turnovers C- 7.5% 221
Turnovers B 14.7% 64
Freethrows B- 0.33 99 B+ 78% 17 B 0.26 50
Total Offense B- +3.4 93

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots B 58% 43 C 11.1% 186
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 17% 292 C+ 4.7% 173
Three Pointers C- 81% 248 D+ 1.3% 289
Total C+ 58% 118 C+ 5.4% 162


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 214 B 52% 50 -2.6 93
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 216 C+ 37% 130 -0.7 132
Three Pointers 43% 110 A 29% 9 -2.4 76
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 190 A- -5.7 22
1st FG Attempt B+ 0.91 31
Second Chance B- 28.1% 96 C+ 1.00 133 B- 0.28 93
Turnovers from Steals C- 8.7% 238
Other Turnovers B- 8.1% 78
Turnovers C 16.8% 172
Freethrows C 0.30 174 A+ 64% 1 B- 0.19 70
Total Defense B +4.6 53

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 46% 120 C+ 12.8% 94
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 242 C- 4.2% 211
Three Pointers F 93% 363 C 0.8% 170
Total C- 57% 222 C+ 6.0% 147

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.5 87 17.9 274
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 163 0.13 56
Consistency 0.12 153 0.12 138
Improvement -3.1 319 +0.0 192

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Longshot
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 85 74 62
Results Rating Rank 70 55 45
Conference Record 8 - 10 9 - 9 10 - 8
Conference Finish 10 9 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 11
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12% 15% 5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12% 15% 5%
Average Seed 10.8 10.8 11.0
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 77% 100% 35%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four9% 12% 4%
First Round6% 8% 2%
Second Round1% 2% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Georgia Tech (Away) - 65.0% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 6
Quad 22 - 47 - 10
Quad 36 - 112 - 11
Quad 48 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 329 Cal St. Bakersfield W 87 - 60 97% +14  99% 1 - 0 B+ +13 C +1 A- C+ D+ A +11 B A+ A
 Thu, Nov 6 161 Wright St. W 77 - 67 85% +6  88% 2 - 0 B- +7 C- -1 C F B A- +8 A+ C F
 Mon, Nov 10 203 Cal St. Fullerton W 93 - 65 89% +16  98% 3 - 0 A +23 B- +5 D- C A+ A+ +15 A A- B
 Thu, Nov 13 98 @Kansas St. L 96 - 99 48% -14  4% 3 - 1 B- +6 A+ +15 A+ B+ D- F+ -10 F F A
 Tue, Nov 18 271 Presbyterian W 67 - 57 94% +3  77% 4 - 1 C +1 C+ +2 B C F+ C+ +1 A+ F C
 Fri, Nov 21 273 Sacramento St. W 91 - 67 94% +18  94% 5 - 1 A- +15 C+ +3 A F C+ A +10 A+ C- C-
 Tue, Nov 25 30 UCLA W 80 - 72 26% +2  52% 6 - 1 A +23 B+ +9 A F A+ A+ +14 A+ B- B
 Tue, Dec 2 104 Utah W 79 - 72 74% +1  64% 7 - 1 B +8 B- +5 B- B C B +4 B+ B- C-
 Sat, Dec 6 127 Pacific W 67 - 61 79% +9  99% 8 - 1 B- +6 C+ +2 B C+ C B +4 A C+ C-
 Sat, Dec 13 278 Northwestern St. W 79 - 70 94% +1  50% 9 - 1 C -0 C+ +4 D+ A C- D+ -4 F+ C A-
 Fri, Dec 19 348 Morgan St. W 97 - 50 98% +22  96% 10 - 1 A+ +31 A +13 A A B- A+ +18 A B B
 Sun, Dec 21 190 Columbia W 74 - 56 88% +11  96% 11 - 1 B+ +13 C- -1 C D A A+ +14 B- A+ C+
 Tue, Dec 30 14 Louisville L 70 - 90 23% -16  0% 11 - 2 0 - 1 C- -4 C -0 D- C- A+ D+ -4 C+ C- D+
 Fri, Jan 2 85 Notre Dame W 72 - 71 66% -2  34% 12 - 2 1 - 1 C+ +5 B- +5 C+ D+ A+ C -1 B+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 21 @Virginia L 60 - 84 13% -12  3% 12 - 3 1 - 2 C- -4 D+ -3 D F+ A- C -1 C D C+
 Sat, Jan 10 56 @Virginia Tech L 75 - 78 32% +2  61% 12 - 4 1 - 3 B +10 B+ +9 B A D+ C+ +1 B+ B- C
 Wed, Jan 14 1 Duke L 56 - 71 7% -3  37% 12 - 5 1 - 4 B +9 C- -2 C F+ B A +10 A+ B+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 26 North Carolina W 84 - 78 34% +11  98% 13 - 5 2 - 4 A +18 A +13 A A+ F+ B+ +5 B A- B+
 Sat, Jan 24 66 @Stanford W 78 - 66 35% +1  57% 14 - 5 3 - 4 A+ +24 B +7 B- C A A+ +17 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 77 @Florida St. L 61 - 63 40% -5  14% 14 - 6 3 - 5 B +9 F+ -8 F C A- A+ +17 A A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 35 @Miami (FL) W 86 - 85 20% -2  36% 15 - 6 4 - 5 A +18 A+ +22 B+ C A+ D+ -4 B- F F
 Wed, Feb 4 148 Georgia Tech W 90 - 85 83% +6  87% 16 - 6 5 - 5 C+ +3 B +6 A+ F D+ D+ -4 C+ C- F
 Sat, Feb 7 40 Clemson L 55 - 77 40% -13  17% 16 - 7 5 - 6 D- -12 F+ -8 C+ F D- D -5 F+ D+ C+
 Wed, Feb 11 76 @Syracuse L 100 - 107 2OT 40% +0  48% 16 - 8 5 - 7 C+ +4 B +6 B- A C+ C -1 D+ B- D
 Sat, Feb 14 137 @Boston College W 86 - 75 64% +11  99% 17 - 8 6 - 7 A- +15 A+ +23 A+ C B+ D- -7 C+ F B+
 Sat, Feb 21 66 Stanford W 72 - 66 58% +8  97% 18 - 8 7 - 7 B+ +12 C +0 D C- A A+ +12 A+ D+ C-
 Wed, Feb 25 39 SMU W 73 - 69 40% +3  83% 19 - 8 8 - 7 B+ +14 C- -1 C F A+ A+ +15 A+ D A+
 Sat, Feb 28 95 Pittsburgh L 56 - 72 69% -6  0% 19 - 9 8 - 8 D- -13 F -16 D C- F C+ +2 B D B
 Wed, Mar 4 148 @Georgia Tech W 78 - 74 65%
 Sat, Mar 7 70 @Wake Forest L 74 - 78 37%
Totals 20 - 10 9 - 9 +8 B- +3 B+ B D+ B +5 B+ B+ B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- B- C+ B+ B 33% 36% 44% D+ B- D+ C+ C- B B- B+ B B B C+ A A- 38% 19% 43% C B+ B- C+ B- C C A+ B-
1.13 62% 39% 38% +4 -1 1.09 28% 1.1 .30 15% .33 78% .26 1.02 52% 37% 29% -6 0 0.91 28% 1.0 .28 17% .30 64% .21
Nov
3		 Cal St. Bakersfield C A+ A+ F A- 47% 14% 39% B A- B- D+ C+ D+ B+ C B A A B- B A- 51% 33% 16% F+ B C A+ A+ A F A+ F
1.19 75% 86% 25% +9 +2 1.24 40% 1.0 .40 19% .42 72% .30 0.82 43% 33% 29% -10 -1 0.80 31% 0.5 .14 23% .54 63% .34
Nov
6		 Wright St. C- A- A+ F C 36% 23% 41% D+ C C- F F B A+ A+ A+ A- A+ F A+ A+ 31% 17% 52% C A+ A F C F C+ A+ A
1.11 69% 60% 22% +2 0 1.05 29% 0.5 .15 14% .52 84% .44 0.96 35% 67% 21% -12 0 0.78 25% 1.4 .34 11% .29 56% .16
Nov
10		 Cal St. Fullerton B- F+ F B+ D- 36% 15% 49% C+ D- C C+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C- C+ A+ A+ 38% 23% 39% C+ A C- A+ A- B A+ A+ A+
1.20 52% 22% 38% -2 0 1.00 29% 1.1 .31 10% .43 87% .38 0.84 61% 36% 21% -7 0 0.87 27% 0.6 .16 18% .17 45% .08
Nov
13		 Kansas St. A+ B C+ A+ A+ 33% 19% 48% C A+ C A+ B+ D- F+ A D+ F+ F+ B- F F 62% 5% 33% F F A- F F A F B+ D
1.23 61% 40% 54% +16 0 1.33 32% 1.4 .46 22% .23 79% .18 1.26 71% 33% 50% +15 +4 1.40 26% 2.0 .52 22% .34 67% .23
Nov
18		 Presbyterian C+ B A+ C+ A- 43% 25% 32% D B A- F C F+ B+ F C- C+ A+ C B A+ 32% 30% 39% B+ A+ F C- F C A C+ A-
1.16 63% 55% 36% +7 0 1.16 38% 0.8 .31 19% .34 56% .19 0.99 29% 38% 29% -12 -2 0.75 46% 1.1 .49 19% .26 67% .17
Nov
21		 Sacramento St. C+ B+ A+ A- A+ 32% 11% 58% C- A D F F C+ D+ F F A A+ A+ A A+ 35% 24% 41% C- A+ F A+ C- C- F D+ F
1.21 67% 83% 39% +12 +1 1.28 29% 0.9 .26 16% .30 53% .16 0.89 26% 23% 27% -19 -1 0.63 36% 0.9 .32 15% .47 80% .37
Nov
25		 UCLA B+ F D A+ A 38% 23% 38% C+ A F+ F F A+ A- B+ A A+ B A- A+ A+ 33% 29% 38% C+ A+ C B+ B- B F+ A+ B
1.13 45% 33% 55% +6 0 1.13 21% 0.7 .15 11% .35 77% .27 1.02 56% 31% 29% -6 -2 0.87 33% 1.1 .36 16% .39 57% .22
Dec
2		 Utah B- C A B- B+ 38% 28% 34% D- B- C- A+ B C A+ A+ A+ B C B+ B+ A- 41% 11% 48% D B+ B+ C- B- C- C- C C-
1.16 58% 50% 35% +4 -1 1.08 27% 1.3 .33 15% .41 92% .38 1.06 59% 33% 31% -2 +1 1.00 26% 1.0 .26 15% .33 74% .24
Dec
6		 Pacific C+ B C- A+ A- 25% 36% 39% D- B B- C C+ C A+ F B- B A+ A+ F+ A+ 45% 23% 32% C A F A+ C+ C- A- D- B+
1.10 64% 38% 41% +5 -3 1.07 27% 1.0 .27 15% .44 57% .25 1.00 43% 27% 40% -6 0 0.89 45% 0.7 .33 20% .20 80% .16
Dec
13		 Northwestern St. C+ D+ F A+ D+ 38% 15% 48% C+ D+ C- A+ A C- B+ A A D+ D+ A- F F 26% 28% 46% B F+ A F C A- B- F C-
1.18 56% 0% 43% 0 +1 1.04 31% 1.6 .50 18% .38 81% .31 1.04 58% 31% 43% +4 -2 1.07 17% 1.6 .28 21% .28 87% .25
Dec
19		 Morgan St. A B+ F A+ A+ 50% 14% 36% C A F A+ A B- D A+ A A+ D D- A+ A 35% 29% 35% C A A+ F B B C A+ A-
1.40 68% 29% 50% +12 +2 1.30 22% 2.6 .57 13% .38 96% .36 0.72 59% 43% 6% -13 -1 0.73 16% 1.2 .19 20% .34 58% .20
Dec
21		 Columbia C- A F B- B- 33% 29% 38% F+ C D D+ D A A A- A+ A+ B- F A+ A- 64% 6% 30% F B- A+ A+ A+ C+ B A+ A
1.10 71% 27% 35% +1 -1 1.02 24% 0.9 .21 9% .39 79% .31 0.84 53% 67% 27% -5 +4 1.00 24% 0.1 .03 22% .23 50% .12
Dec
30		 Louisville C F F+ C- F+ 31% 21% 48% B D- D B+ C- A+ A+ A- A+ D+ B D F B- 43% 3% 53% D C+ D- B C- D+ A F B+
0.98 31% 27% 32% -12 -1 0.77 19% 1.1 .21 11% .43 78% .33 1.26 56% 50% 42% +6 +3 1.19 39% 0.9 .37 14% .23 86% .20
Jan
2		 Notre Dame B- A+ A+ F B- 20% 18% 62% C- C+ D+ D- D+ A+ F C F C A+ F C- A- 25% 17% 58% C- B+ C+ A+ A+ F F A F
1.14 73% 60% 26% 0 -1 1.00 22% 0.9 .20 5% .20 75% .15 1.13 42% 50% 36% -1 0 1.00 32% 0.6 .19 11% .46 62% .29
Jan
7		 Virginia D+ A- D+ F D+ 27% 37% 37% F+ D F F F+ A- A+ A+ A+ C D F A C 39% 12% 49% C C C D- D C+ F A D
0.88 62% 33% 17% -10 -3 0.76 16% 0.7 .11 13% .37 86% .32 1.23 65% 83% 28% +4 +1 1.12 39% 1.2 .48 16% .40 65% .26
Jan
10		 Virginia Tech B+ B C+ C- B 40% 21% 40% C+ B A B A D+ A+ A+ A+ C+ D- A+ A+ A 44% 11% 44% F B+ D A+ B- C F F F
1.12 63% 40% 32% +1 0 1.04 41% 1.1 .45 19% .39 90% .35 1.17 70% 20% 25% -3 +2 1.00 37% 0.9 .33 15% .55 87% .47
Jan
14		 Duke C- F A+ F C+ 24% 33% 43% D- C D F F+ B A+ A A+ A C F A+ A+ 39% 4% 57% C A+ C A B+ C B A+ A+
0.87 33% 56% 24% -7 -3 0.84 18% 0.3 .06 17% .32 76% .24 1.10 63% 100% 21% -6 +2 0.94 40% 1.1 .43 15% .31 47% .15
Jan
17		 North Carolina A D- C+ A+ A 25% 31% 43% D+ A C A+ A+ F+ A B A B+ F A B- B 31% 20% 49% B+ B A- B A- B+ F A D-
1.19 46% 38% 45% +4 -2 1.06 25% 2.3 .56 18% .28 75% .21 1.11 73% 30% 33% +3 -1 1.06 28% 1.0 .28 16% .47 61% .29
Jan
24		 Stanford B C+ F A+ B+ 24% 29% 47% D- B- C- B- C A A B+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 44% 6% 50% D+ A+ C+ A+ A+ F F D F
1.09 58% 21% 43% +2 -2 1.02 25% 1.1 .28 14% .41 80% .33 0.93 39% 0% 23% -19 +2 0.69 33% 0.5 .17 10% .48 77% .37
Jan
28		 Florida St. F+ D- F D F 19% 31% 50% F F F A+ C A- C- C+ C A+ D C+ A+ B+ 27% 29% 44% A+ A A- A+ A+ F+ D A+ B+
0.90 50% 25% 31% -8 -3 0.81 21% 1.3 .26 16% .26 73% .19 0.93 67% 38% 25% -4 -2 0.91 27% 0.3 .07 10% .34 52% .18
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Miami (FL) A+ A+ F A A 26% 30% 44% D- B+ C- B C A+ A+ A- A+ D+ F B- A C 44% 31% 24% A+ B- A+ F F F F C- F
1.28 77% 27% 41% +6 -2 1.10 22% 1.1 .25 10% .53 75% .40 1.26 75% 36% 27% +4 -1 1.09 25% 2.1 .54 10% .55 70% .38
Feb
4		 Georgia Tech B C B- A+ A+ 23% 32% 45% F+ A+ F+ F F D+ A+ C A+ D+ C+ F A- B+ 48% 10% 43% F C+ A F C- F A A+ A+
1.17 55% 40% 57% +15 -3 1.28 22% 0.5 .11 18% .62 72% .44 1.10 57% 50% 30% -2 +2 1.02 24% 1.6 .38 10% .20 50% .10
Feb
7		 Clemson F+ C- C C B- 37% 37% 26% D- C+ F+ F F D- B- A+ A- D D F F F 33% 15% 52% B F+ A+ F D+ C+ C A+ A-
0.85 53% 35% 33% -3 -2 0.91 14% 0.0 .00 22% .30 87% .26 1.19 67% 57% 42% +12 0 1.26 15% 2.3 .33 15% .35 58% .20
Feb
11		 Syracuse B C C- C+ B- 36% 24% 39% D+ B- C+ A+ A C+ B B B+ C F D A C- 51% 15% 34% F+ D+ C- A- B- D F A- F
1.11 54% 31% 35% -3 -1 0.95 32% 1.6 .50 18% .34 76% .26 1.18 74% 44% 29% +6 +2 1.18 33% 0.9 .30 13% .54 60% .32
Feb
14		 Boston College A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 29% 16% 55% C+ A+ F+ A+ C B+ C- A B- D- B D B C 34% 32% 34% B+ C+ F F F B+ D+ A C+
1.33 73% 38% 50% +18 0 1.37 20% 1.2 .24 12% .28 75% .21 1.16 53% 44% 29% -2 -2 0.94 43% 1.5 .63 19% .30 56% .17
Feb
21		 Stanford C F D- B- D+ 26% 30% 43% D- D A F C- A B+ A A A+ A+ A+ A A+ 41% 8% 51% C A+ B F D+ C- F A+ F+
1.04 43% 31% 35% -6 -2 0.87 37% 0.7 .27 14% .39 83% .32 0.95 35% 0% 28% -17 +2 0.71 31% 1.2 .38 14% .49 62% .30
Feb
25		 SMU C- D+ A D C+ 23% 26% 51% D C D- F F A+ D+ A C A+ A A+ D- A+ 30% 26% 43% B- A+ B- F D A+ F A+ B-
1.05 54% 47% 31% -1 -2 0.96 23% 0.7 .15 11% .24 80% .19 0.99 50% 25% 40% -2 -1 0.96 35% 1.2 .43 20% .47 42% .20
Feb
28		 Pittsburgh F A D F D 35% 25% 40% D D D B- C- F F D- F C+ A- F C+ B 38% 17% 45% C+ B A- F D B C F D-
0.84 71% 33% 21% -4 -1 0.92 22% 1.0 .22 24% .14 71% .10 1.08 50% 50% 33% -2 0 1.00 29% 1.4 .42 19% .30 81% .24



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 2.3 2.3 6th
7th 11.6 11.6 7th
8th 23.9 10.6 34.6 8th
9th 8.7 28.7 37.4 9th
10th 11.1 11.1 10th
11th 2.9 2.9 11th
12th 0.2 0.2 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 22.9 52.6 24.5 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 24.5% 25.4% 0.1% 25.3% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 4.3 0.2 18.2 25.3%
9-9 52.6% 9.6% 0.1% 9.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 4.2 0.4 47.6 9.5%
8-10 22.9% 1.4% 1.4% 11.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 22.6 1.4%
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.6% 0.1% 11.5% 10.8 88.4 11.5%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 69.7% 9.7 1.3 2.6 23.7 27.6 14.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1% 43.3% 10.3 1.4 7.1 12.9 21.0 1.0
Lose Out 12.9% 0.3% 11.3 0.2 0.1