Saint Joseph's
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.0 #159
Expected Predictive Rating +1.3 #143
Pace 69.5 #167
Improvement +4.9 #17

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #248 D+ C C C B
Defense #98 B- C D+ A B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #193 1.16 #169 -0.3 #189
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #314 0.65 #317 -3.2 #328
Three Pointers 48% #44 0.89 #327 +0.6 #161
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #260 -2.9 #259
Freethrows 16.3 #263 76% #71 12.3 #198
Second Chance 32.5% #131 0.99 #258 0.32 #174
Turnovers 17.0% #216
Total Offense -2.7 #248

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #274 1.12 #129 +2.6 #93
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #41 0.72 #123 -1.8 #315
Three Pointers 38% #259 1.01 #186 +1.5 #125
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #112 +2.2 #115
Freethrows 13.9 #26 70% #69 9.7 #19
Second Chance 31.5% #229 1.03 #162 0.32 #199
Turnovers 14.8% #280
Total Defense +2.7 #98

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.6% #76 -1.9% #42
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.2% #297 -2.5% #139
Possession Length 17.4 #180 17.2 #159
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #156 0.17 #189
Improvement +0.0 #179 +4.9 #10

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.0 13.0
.500 or above 49.0% 69.2% 39.2%
.500 or above in Conference 47.9% 68.3% 38.1%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 0.4% 2.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dayton (Home) - 32.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 22 - 42 - 9
Quad 35 - 57 - 13
Quad 48 - 215 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 314 Lafayette W 85 - 76 87% +6  1 - 0 -3 +6 F A+ A -9 C F F
 Sat, Nov 8 203 Drexel W 76 - 65 71% +1  2 - 0 +5 +1 D F B- +4 A+ F D
 Wed, Nov 12 58 @Virginia Tech L 59 - 94 12% -20  2 - 1 -22 -11 F C+ F -9 D- D+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 182 @Penn L 74 - 83 44% -1  2 - 2 -7 -4 C- F F -3 F A+ B+
 Thu, Nov 20 114 @UNLV L 85 - 99 27% -4  2 - 3 -8 +5 C+ F A -11 C F C-
 Sun, Nov 30 214 Princeton W 60 - 58 63% +1  3 - 3 -1 -6 F A+ F +5 C- D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 140 Temple W 70 - 69 45% +2  4 - 3 +2 +5 D- A- F -2 C- B- A
 Tue, Dec 9 364 Coppin St. W 87 - 65 97% +14  5 - 3 -1 +7 C C- C+ -6 F A+ F
 Thu, Dec 11 67 @Syracuse L 63 - 71 15% -2  5 - 4 +3 -4 F C D+ +7 A C- D
 Thu, Dec 18 355 Delaware St. W 67 - 51 93% +12  6 - 4 -1 -7 F C D +6 A D- B-
 Mon, Dec 22 252 Coastal Carolina L 62 - 68 78% -2  6 - 5 -14 -14 F F F +0 C+ F B-
 Wed, Dec 31 28 @Saint Louis L 79 - 102 6% -12  6 - 6 0 - 1 -5 +21 B- A+ A+ -28 F B+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 137 Davidson L 56 - 62 56% +5  6 - 7 0 - 2 -7 -8 F B- D -0 A+ F A+
 Wed, Jan 7 118 Duquesne W 97 - 90 OT 51% -0  7 - 7 1 - 2 +7 +11 A+ C B+ -5 C- D+ C
 Sun, Jan 11 120 @Richmond W 67 - 65 29% +8  8 - 7 2 - 2 +8 -3 C- D B- +11 A+ B F
 Wed, Jan 14 136 St. Bonaventure W 68 - 64 56% +4  9 - 7 3 - 2 +3 -3 D F D- +6 A+ A- C
 Mon, Jan 19 55 @Virginia Commonwealth L 72 - 79 11% -0  9 - 8 3 - 3 +6 +2 A+ D+ F +5 A C C-
 Sat, Jan 24 73 Dayton L 66 - 71 32%
 Tue, Jan 27 268 @Loyola Chicago W 73 - 70 61%
 Sat, Jan 31 197 @La Salle L 68 - 69 48%
 Wed, Feb 4 72 George Washington L 75 - 80 32%
 Sat, Feb 7 86 @George Mason L 64 - 74 17%
 Tue, Feb 10 193 Fordham W 69 - 64 69%
 Wed, Feb 18 136 @St. Bonaventure L 70 - 74 34%
 Sat, Feb 21 268 Loyola Chicago W 76 - 67 80%
 Wed, Feb 25 86 George Mason L 67 - 71 35%
 Sat, Feb 28 122 @Rhode Island L 65 - 71 31%
 Wed, Mar 4 137 @Davidson L 66 - 70 34%
 Sat, Mar 7 197 La Salle W 72 - 66 69%
Totals 14 - 15 8 - 10 +0 -3 D+ C C +3 B- C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 1.6 0.5 0.1 3.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 3.6 1.3 0.1 6.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 5.6 3.1 0.3 10.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 7.1 5.9 0.6 14.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 6.1 7.8 1.5 0.0 15.9 7th
8th 0.1 3.3 9.3 2.8 0.1 15.5 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 6.6 3.6 0.3 11.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 3.4 4.6 0.6 0.0 8.8 10th
11th 0.0 1.3 3.7 1.2 0.0 6.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.9 1.2 0.1 3.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.1 1.6 13th
14th 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 14th
Total 0.2 1.2 4.3 9.5 16.3 20.7 19.7 14.7 8.4 3.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 28.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 10.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.3% 2.0% 2.0% 12.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 1.2% 3.0% 3.0% 11.6 0.0 0.0 1.1
12-6 3.6% 1.7% 1.7% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6
11-7 8.4% 1.1% 1.1% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.3
10-8 14.7% 0.5% 0.5% 12.4 0.0 0.0 14.6
9-9 19.7% 0.2% 0.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.7
8-10 20.7% 0.1% 0.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.7
7-11 16.3% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 16.2
6-12 9.5% 9.5
5-13 4.3% 4.3
4-14 1.2% 1.2
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 12.4 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%