Alabama
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +18.2 17
Expected Predictive Rating +18.7 18
Pace 82.5 2
Improvement -1.9 263

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A #2 A- B+ A B B+
Defense B #57 A- B+ D B B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 254 66% 38 +1.3 128
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% 351 51% 2 -3.1 327
Three Pointers 55% 3 36% 95 +8.8 8
1st FG Attempt 1.16 24 +7.0 24
Second Chance 34.3% 75 1.19 27 0.41 34
Turnovers 12.2% 4
Freethrows 0.33 104 77% 36 0.26 60
Total Offense +13.4 2

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 267 50% 20 +4.4 45
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 26 35% 75 -1.8 320
Three Pointers 37% 302 31% 69 +3.7 44
1st FG Attempt 0.89 25 +6.3 25
Second Chance 27.0% 66 0.92 42 0.25 40
Turnovers 14.2% 328
Freethrows 0.27 81 66% 7 0.18 40
Total Defense +4.8 57

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +1.3 31 -1.1 32
Shot Type Accuracy +5.4 35 -5.2 29
Possession Length 14.2 3 17.7 261
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 37 0.13 60
Improvement -1.8 #289 -0.1 #192

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 1% 2% 0%
Top 2 Seed 8% 8% 2%
Top 4 Seed 48% 50% 26%
Top 6 Seed 89% 90% 78%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% 100% 100%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100% 100% 100%
Average Seed 4.6 4.6 5.5
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 99%
Conference Champion 10% 11% 1%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 1%
First Round100% 100% 100%
Second Round86% 87% 79%
Sweet Sixteen47% 47% 36%
Elite Eight19% 19% 14%
Final Four8% 8% 6%
Championship Game3% 3% 2%
National Champion1% 1% 0%

Next Game: South Carolina (Home) - 93.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 9
Quad 28 - 116 - 10
Quad 35 - 021 - 10
Quad 42 - 024 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 288 North Dakota W 91 - 62 99% +17  99% 1 - 0 A +19 C+ +3 B F+ C A+ +14 C A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 8 20 @St. John's W 103 - 96 40% +4  80% 2 - 0 A+ +28 A+ +20 A- A A+ B+ +6 B- B+ C
 Thu, Nov 13 9 Purdue L 80 - 87 52% -2  18% 2 - 1 B +11 A +12 A- D A+ C- -2 B+ B- B-
 Wed, Nov 19 6 Illinois W 90 - 86 38% +1  46% 3 - 1 A+ +25 A +12 A+ A+ C A+ +13 A- A C+
 Mon, Nov 24 13 Gonzaga L 85 - 95 47% -1  40% 3 - 2 B +9 A +12 A+ B- A- C- -2 A F C
 Tue, Nov 25 124 UNLV W 115 - 76 92% +16  95% 4 - 2 A+ +41 A+ +26 A+ A+ B+ A +11 B+ A F+
 Wed, Nov 26 104 Maryland W 105 - 72 89% +20  99% 5 - 2 A+ +37 A+ +22 A+ A+ B- A +12 B+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 38 Clemson W 90 - 84 75% +9  92% 6 - 2 A- +17 A+ +20 A+ A A+ C- -3 B- A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 350 Texas San Antonio W 97 - 55 99% +27  97% 7 - 2 A+ +26 B- +5 F+ C+ A+ A+ +18 A- A A
 Sat, Dec 13 2 Arizona L 75 - 96 27% -7  28% 7 - 3 C+ +4 B +7 A+ F C- C -1 B+ A- F
 Wed, Dec 17 62 South Florida W 104 - 93 88% +8  89% 8 - 3 A- +17 A+ +19 B+ A B- D+ -4 A- F B+
 Sun, Dec 21 154 Kennesaw St. W 92 - 81 94% +18  98% 9 - 3 B +11 B +6 C- B- A+ B- +4 B F+ B+
 Mon, Dec 29 81 Yale W 102 - 78 90% +19  96% 10 - 3 A+ +28 A+ +25 B+ A+ A+ B- +3 A+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 3 24 Kentucky W 89 - 74 68% +11  91% 11 - 3 1 - 0 A+ +28 A+ +17 A+ A A- A +10 A+ B- B
 Wed, Jan 7 14 @Vanderbilt L 90 - 96 37% -5  10% 11 - 4 1 - 1 A- +16 A- +10 D- A+ A B+ +7 A+ B- D-
 Sat, Jan 10 30 Texas L 88 - 92 73% -5  10% 11 - 5 1 - 2 B- +8 A +12 A- B- A+ D+ -5 B C+ F
 Tue, Jan 13 79 @Mississippi St. W 97 - 82 78% +5  52% 12 - 5 2 - 2 A+ +25 A+ +19 A- A- A+ B +4 A+ B F
 Sat, Jan 17 54 @Oklahoma W 83 - 81 69% -2  29% 13 - 5 3 - 2 A- +15 B +6 C+ B- B- A- +9 A+ B- D+
 Sat, Jan 24 18 Tennessee L 73 - 79 62% +1  49% 13 - 6 3 - 3 B +9 B+ +9 C+ A- A+ C -0 C+ A+ D-
 Tue, Jan 27 48 Missouri W 90 - 64 83% +12  87% 14 - 6 4 - 3 A+ +34 A +12 B+ C+ A+ A+ +21 A+ B C-
 Sun, Feb 1 4 @Florida L 77 - 100 22% -11  6% 14 - 7 4 - 4 C+ +3 B+ +8 A+ A- F C- -3 C+ B+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 31 Texas A&M W 100 - 97 74% +0  45% 15 - 7 5 - 4 A- +15 A+ +18 B+ B- A+ D+ -4 C+ B+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 28 @Auburn W 96 - 92 50% -2  38% 16 - 7 6 - 4 A +22 A+ +20 A+ A+ C+ C+ +2 C+ B+ F
 Wed, Feb 11 65 @Mississippi W 93 - 74 74% +4  56% 17 - 7 7 - 4 A+ +30 A+ +19 C A+ A+ A +10 B A D
 Sat, Feb 14 90 South Carolina W 92 - 76 93%
 Tue, Feb 17 19 Arkansas W 95 - 92 61%
 Wed, Feb 18 19 Arkansas W 95 - 92 62%
 Sat, Feb 21 57 @LSU W 89 - 84 69%
 Wed, Feb 25 79 Mississippi St. W 92 - 78 91%
 Sat, Feb 28 18 @Tennessee L 81 - 84 40%
 Tue, Mar 3 36 @Georgia W 95 - 94 53%
 Sat, Mar 7 28 Auburn W 93 - 87 72%
Totals 22 - 10 12 - 7 +18 A +13 A- B+ A B +5 A- B+ D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A B+ A+ B- B+ 36% 9% 55% B+ A- B- B+ B+ A B- B+ B B A- B- B B+ 36% 28% 37% B+ A- B B B+ D B- A B
1.28 66% 51% 36% +5 +1 1.16 34% 1.2 .41 12% .33 77% .26 1.02 50% 35% 31% -5 -1 0.89 27% 0.9 .25 14% .27 66% .22
Nov
3		 North Dakota C+ A+ A+ D- B 44% 6% 50% B B C+ F F+ C A- A- A+ A+ C- C A- C 44% 25% 32% B+ C A+ A+ A+ D+ B+ A+ A+
1.23 78% 67% 31% +8 +2 1.23 37% 0.7 .27 20% .46 78% .36 0.84 56% 36% 28% -4 0 0.93 17% 0.1 .02 14% .27 53% .14
Nov
8		 St. John's A+ A- A+ D A 39% 17% 43% C+ A- C+ A+ A A+ C F D+ B+ C F+ A C+ 48% 26% 26% A- B- A+ F B+ C F B F
1.22 63% 50% 30% +1 0 1.06 30% 1.4 .41 8% .28 64% .18 1.14 57% 47% 27% -1 0 1.00 26% 1.5 .38 14% .55 70% .39
Nov
13		 Purdue A B- D A- A- 21% 15% 65% B A- D D+ D A+ D A+ C C- B B- F B 32% 34% 34% A B+ F A+ B- B- F B F+
1.16 62% 33% 38% +4 0 1.08 18% 1.0 .18 9% .16 80% .13 1.26 59% 39% 44% +6 -2 1.09 48% 0.8 .40 15% .39 70% .27
Nov
19		 Illinois A A- B B A+ 26% 19% 56% A- A+ B- A+ A+ C A+ B A+ A+ C- A+ D+ A- 37% 18% 45% B- A- A B- A C+ C A+ A-
1.14 64% 40% 37% +4 -1 1.09 28% 1.4 .39 13% .33 74% .25 1.09 64% 18% 37% +1 0 1.03 33% 1.1 .38 14% .33 59% .19
Nov
24		 Gonzaga A A+ B- C+ A+ 36% 17% 47% A- A+ A- D B- A- A- F B- C- B F A+ A 35% 31% 35% B A F D+ F C F D+ F
1.11 71% 40% 33% +5 0 1.12 32% 0.8 .24 17% .36 61% .22 1.24 58% 53% 26% +1 -2 1.00 47% 1.3 .58 14% .40 73% .29
Nov
25		 UNLV A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 40% 9% 51% B+ A+ A+ C+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A A F C+ B+ 38% 20% 42% C+ B+ A+ A- A F+ A+ A+ A+
1.46 64% 80% 43% +13 +2 1.31 44% 1.1 .50 15% .53 83% .44 0.97 46% 54% 33% -2 0 0.98 23% 0.7 .16 13% .20 50% .10
Nov
26		 Maryland A+ A+ F A+ A+ 43% 7% 50% A A+ A A+ A+ B- C A+ B A A+ F D B+ 39% 22% 39% C+ B+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ A A+
1.37 84% 0% 45% +17 +2 1.40 39% 1.3 .50 16% .28 83% .23 0.94 32% 50% 36% -6 0 0.89 25% 0.6 .16 12% .16 64% .10
Dec
3		 Clemson A+ C+ A+ B A+ 31% 14% 55% B+ A+ A+ B A A+ A+ D A+ C- B+ F A+ B 57% 16% 27% D B- F A+ A+ F F D- F
1.25 56% 71% 36% +6 0 1.14 34% 1.1 .37 12% .49 71% .35 1.17 53% 78% 27% +1 +2 1.07 41% 0.3 .14 10% .43 79% .34
Dec
7		 Texas San Antonio B- A A F F 30% 6% 64% C+ F+ C B- C+ A+ C A+ B A+ A C A+ A- 26% 20% 54% B A- A+ B A A C- A+ A-
1.25 70% 50% 23% -6 +1 0.93 37% 1.2 .43 6% .28 85% .23 0.71 43% 36% 24% -12 -1 0.76 19% 0.8 .15 23% .27 44% .12
Dec
13		 Arizona B B A+ A A+ 26% 15% 58% A A+ F F+ F C- B+ B B+ C A- D- F+ B+ 40% 26% 34% C+ B+ D+ A+ A- F A B A
0.99 57% 50% 39% +6 0 1.13 9% 0.7 .06 20% .29 72% .21 1.26 54% 47% 41% +4 -1 1.09 43% 0.7 .29 5% .28 70% .19
Dec
17		 South Florida A+ F A+ A A- 29% 22% 49% C B+ A+ D+ A B- A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ F B- B+ 38% 15% 47% A- A- F C F B+ F F+ F
1.32 38% 67% 41% +5 -1 1.11 49% 0.9 .44 18% .54 83% .45 1.18 38% 50% 31% -8 +1 0.87 50% 1.2 .58 19% .53 79% .42
Dec
21		 Kennesaw St. B B- D+ D- C- 40% 14% 46% C+ C- C B+ B- A+ F+ B D B- C- C B+ C 30% 33% 37% A+ B C F F+ B+ A- F B-
1.17 58% 33% 30% -3 +1 0.97 30% 1.2 .34 10% .33 78% .25 1.03 59% 37% 29% -3 -2 0.91 35% 1.2 .42 20% .29 78% .22
Dec
29		 Yale A+ C- A B+ B 23% 3% 73% B+ B+ A+ B- A+ A+ D+ B C- B- A+ D+ D+ A+ 40% 21% 40% C+ A+ D+ F F D- F B F+
1.48 57% 50% 39% +5 +1 1.15 47% 1.1 .51 7% .25 75% .19 1.13 33% 45% 38% -6 0 0.91 36% 1.4 .51 12% .43 73% .31
Jan
3		 Kentucky A+ C+ A+ A- A+ 38% 5% 57% A+ A+ A B+ A A- D+ B- C- A D- A+ A+ A+ 38% 26% 36% B+ A+ B+ D+ B- B F B F
1.24 57% 67% 38% +4 +2 1.14 36% 0.9 .33 14% .26 75% .19 1.03 70% 21% 21% -7 -1 0.87 31% 1.3 .38 17% .49 69% .34
Jan
7		 Vanderbilt A- C+ A+ F F+ 26% 16% 57% B- D- A A+ A+ A A+ C+ A+ B+ B A- C+ A+ 36% 30% 34% A A+ A+ F B- D- F A F
1.09 56% 50% 17% -13 0 0.75 38% 1.3 .48 16% .54 76% .41 1.16 58% 31% 33% -2 -1 0.94 21% 1.8 .36 10% .67 70% .47
Jan
10		 Texas A F+ C- A+ B+ 41% 17% 43% B+ A- B+ C B- A+ A C- A- D+ A A+ F B- 31% 27% 42% A B D+ B+ C+ F F A- D
1.23 45% 33% 48% +3 +1 1.09 30% 0.9 .28 10% .42 70% .29 1.29 50% 29% 45% +2 -1 1.04 42% 1.1 .47 10% .50 69% .34
Jan
13		 Mississippi St. A+ D- B A- B+ 33% 12% 55% A A- C A+ A- A+ A+ A A+ B D+ A+ B- A 25% 36% 39% A+ A+ B B- B F D- C+ D
1.26 47% 43% 38% 0 +1 1.03 26% 1.4 .37 7% .46 82% .38 1.07 65% 21% 31% -6 -3 0.84 29% 0.9 .27 5% .34 68% .23
Jan
17		 Oklahoma B A D+ D- C 33% 17% 50% B C+ B- C+ B- B- A+ F B- A- A B+ A- A+ 33% 30% 37% A+ A+ D+ A- B- D+ D+ F F+
1.11 67% 33% 30% -1 0 1.00 33% 1.1 .36 15% .41 58% .23 1.08 47% 35% 29% -7 -2 0.84 37% 1.1 .41 12% .33 86% .29
Jan
24		 Tennessee B+ A- B F C+ 29% 20% 51% C- C+ C+ A+ A- A+ A+ B+ A+ C C- F+ D+ D+ 33% 35% 33% A+ C+ A A+ A+ D- D- B- D
1.09 64% 40% 24% -5 -1 0.90 26% 1.3 .34 10% .40 71% .28 1.18 63% 47% 38% +6 -2 1.10 38% 0.7 .27 15% .44 68% .30
Jan
27		 Missouri A C A+ B- B- 30% 7% 63% A B+ D- A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 43% 20% 37% B- A+ B C+ B C- C- A+ A+
1.21 53% 50% 36% +1 +1 1.07 22% 1.3 .27 9% .39 88% .34 0.86 52% 18% 20% -14 0 0.74 33% 1.1 .37 18% .38 35% .13
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Florida B+ C+ F A+ A+ 27% 16% 56% B+ A+ B- A+ A- F D C D C- D- A+ A- C+ 63% 20% 17% C C+ B+ C+ B+ F C+ A- B
1.00 53% 22% 42% +3 0 1.07 24% 1.0 .24 23% .22 69% .15 1.29 71% 15% 27% +2 +2 1.09 38% 1.0 .38 3% .35 65% .23
Feb
4		 Texas A&M A+ A+ A+ D B+ 22% 8% 70% B- B+ C B B- A+ A+ D A+ D+ D+ A+ F C 36% 16% 48% A- C+ A+ F B+ F D- B+ D+
1.28 85% 60% 31% +5 0 1.12 30% 1.0 .30 8% .44 69% .30 1.24 64% 30% 41% +6 0 1.15 14% 1.8 .25 8% .39 71% .28
Feb
7		 Auburn A+ B+ D A+ A+ 44% 17% 39% B+ A+ D+ A+ A+ C+ A A+ A+ C+ C- F B- B- 43% 14% 43% C- C+ B- B+ B+ F A D+ A-
1.29 63% 33% 48% +9 +1 1.22 25% 1.9 .46 19% .38 87% .33 1.23 64% 50% 32% +3 +1 1.10 38% 0.9 .35 7% .32 77% .24
Feb
11		 Mississippi A+ F F C C- 25% 5% 70% A- C D+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A D A C- B 27% 40% 33% B B A+ B A D A+ A+ A+
1.26 43% 0% 33% -6 +1 0.91 27% 1.8 .49 8% .38 92% .35 1.00 69% 29% 35% 0 -3 0.95 21% 1.0 .21 11% .20 62% .12



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.4 5.8 3.2 10.4 1st
2nd 0.0 2.8 17.9 11.2 1.2 33.0 2nd
3rd 0.5 11.0 7.9 0.1 19.4 3rd
4th 0.0 4.0 10.1 0.6 14.8 4th
5th 0.5 7.7 2.3 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.9 3.8 0.1 5.8 6th
7th 0.2 2.7 0.5 3.4 7th
8th 0.5 1.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 0.1 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.7 6.2 16.5 26.3 27.8 17.1 4.4 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 72.9% 3.2    1.5 1.7
14-4 34.1% 5.8    1.1 3.6 1.0 0.1
13-5 5.0% 1.4    0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.4% 10.4 2.6 5.5 1.5 0.6 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 4.4% 100.0% 23.0% 77.0% 2.3 0.8 1.7 1.4 0.4 100.0%
14-4 17.1% 100.0% 16.3% 83.7% 3.2 0.5 2.9 7.3 5.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 27.8% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 4.1 0.2 1.2 6.8 9.6 7.7 2.1 0.2 100.0%
12-6 26.3% 100.0% 9.5% 90.5% 5.0 0.0 0.2 2.0 6.2 9.6 6.7 1.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 16.5% 99.9% 5.5% 94.4% 5.9 0.0 0.4 1.3 4.1 6.1 3.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 99.9%
10-8 6.2% 99.7% 4.0% 95.6% 6.7 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.7%
9-9 1.7% 98.8% 3.6% 95.2% 8.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 98.8%
8-10 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.9% 11.3% 88.7% 4.6 0.1 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 1.6 43.0 54.0 3.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0% 100.0% 2.4 10.2 48.0 37.8 4.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1% 100.0% 2.5 14.9 31.6 43.9 9.6