East Carolina
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -4.0 234
Results Rating -5.4 248
Consistency 0.14 133
Pace 70.6 121
Improvement +5.5 26

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 259 D- C+ C- B- D+
Defense C 199 C D+ C B- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 137 D 52% 311 -1.3 235
2 Pt. Jumpers 55% 33 C 39% 151 +2.8 48
Three Pointers 32% 340 D- 29% 343 -6.7 348
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.8 289 D -4.4 320
1st FG Attempt D- 0.92 332
Second Chance B- 32.7% 101 C 1.02 198 C+ 0.33 124
Opponents' Steals C- 9.8% 226
Other Turnovers C 7.4% 205
Turnovers C- 17.2% 218
Freethrows B 0.35 53 D+ 70% 256 B- 0.24 99
Total Offense D+ -3.4 259

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C+ 51% 129 C 11.2% 191
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 153 A- 1.4% 10
Three Pointers C 84% 201 B+ 0.2% 24
Total C- 52% 249 B- 4.9% 102


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 262 C 58% 188 -1.2 126
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 101 C 38% 170 +0.8 253
Three Pointers 41% 177 D+ 36% 254 +1.0 236
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.4 99 C- +1.0 214
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 194
Second Chance C 30.7% 201 D- 1.15 334 D+ 0.35 288
Turnovers from Steals C 9.6% 180
Other Turnovers C+ 7.5% 139
Turnovers C 17.1% 154
Freethrows B 0.26 61 D+ 74% 282 B- 0.19 75
Total Defense C -0.6 199

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 56% 320 B+ 16.5% 32
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 33% 308 C- 3.9% 225
Three Pointers C 84% 183 C- 0.7% 193
Total D+ 60% 290 B 7.2% 63

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.2 153 16.9 112
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 225 0.20 290
Consistency 0.12 120 0.10 46
Improvement +4.9 11 +0.6 163

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 258 235 212
Results Rating Rank 276 247 227
Conference Record 6 - 12 6 - 12 7 - 11
Conference Finish 12 12 9
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Tulsa (Home) - 17.1% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 22 - 42 - 7
Quad 33 - 74 - 14
Quad 47 - 711 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 257 Georgia Southern W 92 - 89 67% +2  62% 1 - 0 D+ -5 C- -1 F+ A+ B D+ -4 D+ F B-
 Sat, Nov 8 135 @Richmond L 72 - 87 21% -10  18% 1 - 1 D -10 D -6 D D+ C- D+ -4 D- B+ C+
 Tue, Nov 18 106 @UNC Wilmington L 60 - 85 15% -12  7% 1 - 2 F+ -18 F+ -9 F+ D+ C- F -10 F C+ B
 Fri, Nov 21 250 Charleston Southern L 65 - 77 65% -7  0% 1 - 3 F -20 F -15 F+ B- D D -5 D- A+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 9 Michigan St. L 56 - 89 2% -22  0% 1 - 4 D- -13 F+ -9 C+ C- F C- -2 D D+ D+
 Thu, Nov 27 138 St. Bonaventure L 58 - 67 31% -3  8% 1 - 5 D+ -8 F -20 F F F A+ +13 A+ B B+
 Tue, Dec 2 350 Maryland Eastern Shore W 68 - 56 88% +5  60% 2 - 5 C- -4 C -0 B D+ C- C- -2 D C+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 297 UNC Greensboro L 78 - 82 76% -2  24% 2 - 6 F+ -15 D -6 F A+ F F+ -10 C+ F C
 Thu, Dec 11 172 Appalachian St. L 54 - 67 50% -9  0% 2 - 7 F+ -17 F -18 F C- C C -0 D- F A+
 Sun, Dec 14 212 Buffalo W 73 - 70 57% -8  21% 3 - 7 C- -3 D- -7 F A A+ B +4 A D- B+
 Wed, Dec 17 271 Presbyterian W 74 - 53 69% +10  98% 4 - 7 B+ +12 D+ -3 B+ D F A+ +16 A+ D+ A+
 Mon, Dec 22 27 @North Carolina L 51 - 99 3% -24  1% 4 - 8 F -30 F -21 F D F D -5 F D B+
 Wed, Dec 31 184 Tulane L 70 - 79 53% -1  32% 4 - 9 0 - 1 D- -14 D+ -3 D D+ A+ F -11 D- F B+
 Wed, Jan 7 165 @Temple L 67 - 75 27% -9  0% 4 - 10 0 - 2 D+ -6 D+ -4 B- C- D- C- -2 A- F B-
 Sun, Jan 11 116 UAB L 85 - 87 OT 35% -2  26% 4 - 11 0 - 3 C- -2 D+ -3 D+ B F+ C+ +1 B- D+ D
 Wed, Jan 14 54 @South Florida L 71 - 82 6% -11  1% 4 - 12 0 - 4 C+ +2 C- -2 D C A B +5 C A+ F
 Sun, Jan 18 170 Charlotte L 70 - 73 49% -7  6% 4 - 13 0 - 5 D+ -7 D -6 D- D+ A+ C -1 F D A+
 Wed, Jan 21 92 @Wichita St. L 60 - 77 11% -14  0% 4 - 14 0 - 6 D+ -8 D -5 F D A+ D+ -4 A- F D
 Fri, Jan 23 136 @North Texas W 63 - 59 21% +3  86% 5 - 14 1 - 6 B +8 C- -0 D- A+ F A +9 A+ C F
 Wed, Jan 28 218 Rice L 77 - 83 59% -7  2% 5 - 15 1 - 7 D- -12 D+ -3 F B- B+ F+ -9 F D- C+
 Sun, Feb 1 125 @Florida Atlantic W 76 - 75 18% -1  24% 6 - 15 2 - 7 B- +7 B+ +8 D+ A- B- C -1 F+ D+ A+
 Sat, Feb 7 165 Temple L 73 - 81 48% -5  19% 6 - 16 2 - 8 D- -12 C +1 D+ C+ A+ F -14 C D+ F
 Wed, Feb 11 335 Texas San Antonio W 88 - 72 84% +12  89% 7 - 16 3 - 8 C +1 B- +4 F A+ A C- -3 C C- D-
 Sat, Feb 14 218 @Rice W 85 - 75 36% +6  83% 8 - 16 4 - 8 B +10 A +13 B+ A+ A- C- -2 B D- F+
 Wed, Feb 18 92 Wichita St. L 89 - 92 2OT 25% +1  60% 8 - 17 4 - 9 C +0 C- -2 C+ D+ A- B- +3 C- A B
 Sat, Feb 21 170 @Charlotte L 56 - 68 28% -7  0% 8 - 18 4 - 10 D -10 F -17 F F+ F+ B+ +7 A+ B- F
 Wed, Feb 25 335 @Texas San Antonio W 82 - 81 68% -2  26% 9 - 18 5 - 10 D+ -8 B- +5 C+ A+ F+ F -13 F F A+
 Sun, Mar 1 120 Memphis W 84 - 68 35% +10  87% 10 - 18 6 - 10 A- +16 B+ +8 A+ C- C A- +8 A+ D D
 Thu, Mar 5 64 Tulsa L 73 - 83 17%
 Sun, Mar 8 116 @UAB L 70 - 80 17%
Totals 10 - 20 6 - 12 -4 D+ -3 B- D D+ C -1 D- D+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D C D- D 40% 55% 32% D+ D- B- C C+ C- B D+ B- C C C D+ C- 36% 23% 41% B- C C D- D+ C B D+ B-
1.04 52% 39% 29% -4 -1 0.92 33% 1.0 .33 17% .35 70% .24 1.10 58% 38% 36% +1 0 1.03 31% 1.2 .35 17% .26 74% .26
Nov
4		 Georgia Southern C- B D F F+ 45% 22% 33% D+ F+ A A A+ B A+ F A+ D+ C+ B+ D- D+ 55% 11% 35% F+ D+ F F F B- F A+ D
1.14 64% 33% 22% -4 0 0.95 44% 1.2 .54 16% .61 63% .39 1.11 53% 33% 37% -2 +2 1.04 35% 1.3 .45 17% .45 60% .27
Nov
8		 Richmond D C+ A- F D 28% 32% 40% D D F+ A D+ C- A+ C A+ D+ F F A+ D 37% 18% 45% F D- A+ F B+ C+ F D F
0.97 62% 47% 21% -4 -2 0.89 22% 1.4 .30 18% .51 71% .36 1.18 78% 56% 27% +6 0 1.14 15% 1.3 .19 15% .57 81% .46
Nov
18		 UNC Wilmington F+ F+ C+ F D 15% 43% 43% F F+ C F+ D+ C- C- B C F F B F F 23% 23% 53% B- F B- C- C+ B F F+ F
0.90 50% 39% 26% -6 -5 0.81 27% 0.9 .24 15% .25 79% .19 1.27 80% 30% 48% +14 -1 1.28 31% 1.1 .34 18% .51 75% .38
Nov
21		 Charleston Southern F C- D+ F F 47% 33% 20% C- F+ D A+ B- D B F D D C A+ F F 22% 22% 56% A+ D- A+ B A+ F B F C+
0.92 54% 35% 10% -10 -1 0.80 26% 1.3 .34 14% .40 54% .22 1.10 58% 25% 48% +9 -1 1.18 15% 0.8 .12 13% .21 77% .16
Nov
25		 Michigan St. F+ F B A+ C+ 48% 25% 28% B C+ A F C- F A+ C- A+ C- D C+ F D- 32% 29% 39% B D B+ F D+ D+ A+ A A+
0.78 26% 40% 55% -6 0 0.90 31% 0.5 .14 33% .54 69% .37 1.24 67% 38% 45% +9 -1 1.18 36% 1.3 .47 15% .20 67% .13
Nov
27		 St. Bonaventure F F D D+ F 40% 27% 33% D+ F C+ F F F A+ A A+ A+ C B+ A A 23% 38% 40% A+ A+ A+ F B B+ B- F C-
0.82 22% 33% 33% -16 -1 0.69 30% 0.6 .19 24% .47 84% .39 0.95 58% 35% 29% -4 -3 0.87 25% 1.2 .31 20% .25 86% .21
Dec
2		 Maryland Eastern Shore C C F A+ B 43% 20% 38% C B B- F D+ C- A+ D A C- F F A F 22% 42% 36% A+ D B+ D- C+ F A A+ A+
1.15 59% 25% 47% +5 0 1.13 36% 0.9 .32 17% .47 70% .33 0.95 70% 53% 25% +4 -4 1.02 24% 1.0 .24 19% .15 57% .08
Dec
6		 UNC Greensboro D B F F F 42% 14% 44% B+ F A+ A A+ F B- F C F+ C- F A+ C+ 35% 31% 35% B C+ F F F C D- F F
1.12 67% 29% 23% -5 +1 0.94 53% 1.3 .71 22% .29 63% .18 1.18 59% 47% 24% -3 -2 0.94 38% 1.6 .59 16% .41 88% .36
Dec
11		 Appalachian St. F F A- F F 43% 22% 35% C F C+ D C- C D- F F C F+ C- B+ D- 46% 17% 38% D D- F D+ F A+ A D B
0.83 41% 45% 17% -15 0 0.73 31% 0.8 .26 14% .21 50% .11 1.03 68% 38% 28% +1 +1 1.06 39% 1.1 .42 25% .24 67% .16
Dec
14		 Buffalo D- F D+ F F 42% 21% 37% D+ F B- A+ A A+ A+ C+ A+ B A+ F C A+ 39% 16% 45% C- A F B D- B+ D D+ D-
1.06 41% 36% 21% -15 0 0.73 37% 1.2 .44 10% .49 77% .37 1.02 35% 50% 35% -7 +1 0.90 36% 1.0 .36 19% .38 76% .29
Dec
17		 Presbyterian D+ C- A+ B- B+ 56% 17% 27% B B+ F A+ D F A+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 63% 17% 20% F A+ C+ F D+ A+ B+ D+ B
1.08 57% 71% 36% +6 +2 1.17 20% 1.3 .25 23% .50 85% .42 0.77 48% 25% 11% -15 +2 0.76 30% 1.2 .36 28% .28 71% .20
Dec
22		 North Carolina F D- F F F 39% 33% 28% C F A+ F D F A F+ B+ D C F F F 41% 16% 43% C- F F C+ D B+ F B+ F+
0.67 45% 16% 13% -21 -2 0.56 38% 0.4 .15 22% .29 65% .19 1.30 62% 50% 50% +14 +1 1.31 41% 1.1 .43 16% .47 63% .30
Dec
31		 Tulane D+ B- F C- D- 43% 24% 33% C- D C+ F D+ A+ C+ F D+ F B+ B- F F 28% 28% 44% A+ D- F D F B+ F A+ D-
1.06 61% 15% 33% -5 0 0.93 35% 0.8 .28 12% .33 63% .21 1.20 50% 33% 47% +5 -2 1.09 38% 1.2 .47 18% .50 67% .33
Jan
7		 Temple D+ D A+ A+ B 44% 40% 16% F B- B F C- D- A F C C- A+ A+ F+ A+ 41% 9% 50% F A- D+ F F B- F F+ F
1.03 53% 53% 43% +6 -2 1.09 34% 0.8 .28 18% .40 57% .23 1.15 32% 25% 39% -8 +2 0.89 31% 1.5 .49 15% .47 81% .38
Jan
11		 UAB D+ B- F B C- 33% 32% 35% F+ D+ A D+ B F+ A+ F B+ C+ A- F+ A+ B 55% 25% 20% D B- A- F D+ D B- B+ B
1.02 62% 25% 36% -2 -2 0.95 35% 0.9 .30 20% .35 65% .23 1.04 49% 44% 23% -7 +1 0.89 27% 1.3 .36 10% .28 67% .19
Jan
14		 South Florida C- C F+ D- D 35% 30% 35% D+ D D- A+ C A A F B- B A- A+ F C- 40% 11% 49% B C A+ A+ A+ F C- D+ D+
0.96 55% 29% 30% -6 -1 0.88 23% 1.2 .28 15% .40 60% .24 1.11 48% 17% 39% -3 +1 1.00 26% 0.5 .14 9% .39 77% .30
Jan
18		 Charlotte D D C- F+ D- 44% 31% 25% D+ D- F+ A D+ A+ C- D- D+ C B F F F 51% 5% 44% F F B- F D A+ A- F C+
1.06 54% 35% 29% -5 -1 0.91 23% 1.3 .30 8% .30 67% .20 1.11 55% 100% 47% +10 +3 1.28 30% 1.2 .35 27% .27 85% .23
Jan
21		 Wichita St. D C F F F 33% 35% 31% D+ F C F D A+ B F+ C+ D+ F F A+ A- 26% 20% 54% B- A- D F F D C- D- D+
0.92 56% 21% 24% -12 -2 0.74 27% 0.8 .20 9% .32 63% .20 1.18 69% 60% 15% -8 -1 0.84 43% 1.3 .55 12% .33 74% .25
Jan
23		 North Texas C- F F A D 33% 30% 38% D- D- A+ A A+ F A+ B A+ A C+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 26% 33% A- A+ B+ F+ C F B+ C+ B+
0.98 38% 25% 40% -7 -2 0.85 45% 1.2 .55 28% .50 74% .37 0.92 55% 21% 17% -14 -1 0.72 29% 1.2 .33 11% .28 69% .19
Jan
28		 Rice D+ B- F F F 43% 24% 33% B+ F C A- B- B+ A A+ A+ F+ F C- F F 21% 28% 51% C+ F C+ F D- C+ F A+ F+
1.10 65% 23% 22% -6 0 0.89 31% 1.2 .37 13% .43 88% .38 1.18 70% 38% 42% +9 -2 1.15 34% 1.2 .40 19% .44 60% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Florida Atlantic B+ F+ C- B+ D+ 52% 22% 26% C D+ A- B- A- B- A C A- C D+ D+ F F 40% 19% 42% C- F+ F+ B- D+ A+ A+ F A-
1.13 46% 36% 38% -5 +1 0.94 35% 1.1 .38 15% .39 73% .28 1.12 63% 44% 40% +7 0 1.17 38% 1.0 .38 24% .20 80% .16
Feb
7		 Temple C C D+ F D+ 55% 22% 22% B D+ D+ A C+ A+ A+ C+ A+ F B- D D D+ 29% 35% 37% A+ C F A D+ F B- D- C
1.15 59% 36% 27% -2 +1 1.00 26% 1.3 .32 9% .47 74% .35 1.27 53% 44% 37% +2 -2 1.02 43% 0.8 .33 6% .34 80% .27
Feb
11		 Texas San Antonio B- D A+ F F 31% 19% 50% D+ F C A+ A+ A B A+ A+ C- B- A+ C- C 39% 18% 43% D+ C F A- C- D- C A+ B+
1.24 53% 60% 22% -6 0 0.89 37% 1.6 .58 11% .32 90% .29 1.01 50% 20% 33% -7 0 0.89 38% 0.8 .30 14% .26 50% .13
Feb
14		 Rice A D+ A+ A+ A 24% 45% 31% F B+ C A+ A+ A- A+ C A+ C- F B A C+ 15% 40% 45% A+ B F+ D+ D- F+ C+ F D-
1.28 58% 50% 47% +11 -4 1.16 32% 1.6 .50 12% .44 73% .32 1.13 88% 32% 28% -2 -4 0.89 40% 1.0 .40 14% .28 88% .24
Feb
18		 Wichita St. C- F A+ F B 35% 48% 17% F C+ B- F D+ A- A F C+ B- D F A+ D 38% 28% 34% B C- A+ B A B C B C+
1.01 38% 61% 25% +1 -4 0.97 30% 0.7 .22 12% .36 57% .21 1.04 63% 56% 23% +1 -1 1.02 30% 0.9 .27 17% .31 65% .21
Feb
21		 Charlotte F D D- F F 31% 35% 33% F F C- F F+ F+ A+ F B B+ B- A+ A A+ 44% 13% 42% D+ A+ D+ B+ B- F B+ B B+
0.86 53% 29% 13% -15 -2 0.67 29% 0.8 .24 18% .43 61% .26 1.04 57% 14% 27% -8 +1 0.88 35% 0.8 .28 12% .28 69% .19
Feb
25		 Texas San Antonio B- C+ A+ D B 29% 36% 36% F C+ A- A+ A+ F+ A+ C A+ F F D F F 32% 26% 43% B+ F D- F F A+ B+ F C
1.21 62% 56% 31% +6 -3 1.09 45% 1.4 .61 19% .48 73% .35 1.20 80% 42% 45% +15 -1 1.30 35% 1.4 .48 25% .20 90% .18
Mar
1		 Memphis B+ B- A+ A+ A+ 33% 33% 35% D- A+ C+ D- C- C C B- C+ A- C+ A+ B- A+ 32% 40% 28% A+ A+ B+ F D D D+ A C
1.14 63% 50% 53% +15 -2 1.29 35% 0.8 .27 20% .34 75% .26 0.93 56% 13% 31% -12 -3 0.72 31% 1.5 .48 16% .33 65% .21



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 0.5 0.5 8th
9th 2.5 2.1 4.6 9th
10th 11.1 0.5 11.5 10th
11th 9.5 13.8 0.0 23.4 11th
12th 60.0 60.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 69.5 27.3 3.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 3.1% 3.1
7-11 27.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 27.3
6-12 69.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.1 69.5
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 19.5%