Texas A&M - Commerce
Southland
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.8#343
Expected Predictive Rating-13.8#347
Pace66.6#226
Improvement+1.7#105

Offense
Total Offense-7.5#346
First Shot-6.8#340
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#231
Layup/Dunks-3.9#314
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#305
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#118
Freethrows-2.5#317
Improvement+0.8#142

Defense
Total Defense-4.4#301
First Shot-3.5#286
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#266
Layups/Dunks-4.0#320
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#40
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#267
Freethrows+0.5#145
Improvement+0.9#137
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 71.5% 70.3% 71.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iowa (Away) - 1.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 30 - 80 - 14
Quad 45 - 125 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 60   @ Iowa L 66-90 1%    
  Nov 06, 2024 262   @ South Dakota L 77-86 20%    
  Nov 08, 2024 19   @ Texas A&M L 55-87 1%     0 - 1 -13.6 -5.8 -9.1
  Nov 13, 2024 224   Southern W 70-68 29%     1 - 1 -3.9 -2.8 -1.2
  Nov 19, 2024 24   @ Connecticut L 46-81 1%     1 - 2 -17.6 -23.5 +6.9
  Nov 21, 2024 34   @ Oklahoma L 56-84 1%     1 - 3 -12.3 -10.1 -2.5
  Nov 25, 2024 321   @ Stonehill L 65-67 33%     1 - 4 -9.2 -2.3 -7.3
  Nov 30, 2024 149   Purdue Fort Wayne L 57-77 17%     1 - 5 -21.6 -15.3 -7.8
  Dec 05, 2024 290   @ Houston Christian L 79-83 24%     1 - 6 0 - 1 -8.6 +3.8 -12.4
  Dec 07, 2024 291   @ Incarnate Word L 53-65 24%     1 - 7 0 - 2 -16.6 -19.6 +1.8
  Dec 15, 2024 156   South Alabama L 72-81 18%     1 - 8 -10.9 +3.2 -14.5
  Dec 18, 2024 242   Abilene Christian W 68-67 33%     2 - 8 -6.3 -6.2 -0.1
  Dec 21, 2024 177   @ South Florida L 62-88 11%     2 - 9 -24.3 -10.6 -13.1
  Jan 04, 2025 87   McNeese St. L 56-75 8%     2 - 10 0 - 3 -14.9 -13.7 -1.6
  Jan 06, 2025 197   Nicholls St. L 61-83 23%     2 - 11 0 - 4 -26.2 -8.3 -20.0
  Jan 11, 2025 293   @ Northwestern St. L 67-75 25%     2 - 12 0 - 5 -12.6 -5.1 -7.7
  Jan 13, 2025 264   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 55-57 21%     2 - 13 0 - 6 -5.3 -11.7 +6.1
  Jan 18, 2025 351   New Orleans L 73-82 63%     2 - 14 0 - 7 -24.3 -11.2 -12.7
  Jan 20, 2025 228   SE Louisiana L 68-76 29%     2 - 15 0 - 8 -14.2 -6.9 -7.3
  Jan 25, 2025 218   @ Lamar L 58-61 OT 15%     2 - 16 0 - 9 -3.7 -15.4 +11.7
  Jan 27, 2025 270   @ Stephen F. Austin L 72-79 22%     2 - 17 0 - 10 -10.6 +9.3 -20.6
  Feb 01, 2025 293   Northwestern St. W 72-50 41%     3 - 17 1 - 10 +12.4 +1.7 +12.3
  Feb 03, 2025 186   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 66-78 22%     3 - 18 1 - 11 -15.8 -3.9 -12.7
  Feb 08, 2025 197   @ Nicholls St. L 64-77 11%    
  Feb 10, 2025 87   @ McNeese St. L 57-78 2%    
  Feb 15, 2025 218   Lamar L 64-70 30%    
  Feb 17, 2025 270   Stephen F. Austin L 62-65 41%    
  Feb 22, 2025 228   @ SE Louisiana L 63-74 15%    
  Feb 24, 2025 351   @ New Orleans L 73-74 42%    
  Mar 01, 2025 291   Incarnate Word L 69-71 43%    
  Mar 03, 2025 290   Houston Christian L 68-70 44%    
Projected Record 5 - 26 3 - 17




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.2 2.0 4.6 2.4 0.3 9.4 10th
11th 1.1 10.9 16.7 7.2 0.9 0.0 36.9 11th
12th 7.1 20.8 18.3 5.7 0.4 52.3 12th
Total 7.1 22.0 29.4 24.4 12.5 4.0 0.7 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13 0.7% 0.7
6-14 4.0% 4.0
5-15 12.5% 12.5
4-16 24.4% 24.4
3-17 29.4% 29.4
2-18 22.0% 22.0
1-19 7.1% 7.1
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 5.8%