Texas A&M - Commerce
Southland
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.4#335
Expected Predictive Rating-12.8#342
Pace67.0#212
Improvement+1.8#124

Offense
Total Offense-7.5#341
First Shot-6.9#344
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#226
Layup/Dunks-4.1#323
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#305
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#110
Freethrows-2.5#319
Improvement+0.4#167

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#285
First Shot-3.1#281
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#250
Layups/Dunks-3.9#314
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#37
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#267
Freethrows+0.6#136
Improvement+1.3#111
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iowa (Away) - 1.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 30 - 80 - 14
Quad 45 - 115 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 63   @ Iowa L 65-88 1%    
  Nov 06, 2024 239   @ South Dakota L 76-86 17%    
  Nov 08, 2024 22   @ Texas A&M L 55-87 1%     0 - 1 -12.9 -4.5 -9.7
  Nov 13, 2024 231   Southern W 70-68 32%     1 - 1 -4.6 -3.5 -1.1
  Nov 19, 2024 28   @ Connecticut L 46-81 1%     1 - 2 -17.8 -22.9 +6.2
  Nov 21, 2024 40   @ Oklahoma L 56-84 2%     1 - 3 -12.6 -10.4 -2.5
  Nov 25, 2024 331   @ Stonehill L 65-67 37%     1 - 4 -9.9 -3.7 -6.6
  Nov 30, 2024 164   Purdue Fort Wayne L 57-77 21%     1 - 5 -23.0 -14.0 -10.5
  Dec 05, 2024 285   @ Houston Christian L 79-83 25%     1 - 6 0 - 1 -8.4 +5.6 -14.1
  Dec 07, 2024 262   @ Incarnate Word L 53-65 21%     1 - 7 0 - 2 -14.9 -17.5 +1.4
  Dec 15, 2024 131   South Alabama L 72-81 16%     1 - 8 -9.9 +2.4 -12.7
  Dec 18, 2024 210   Abilene Christian W 68-67 29%     2 - 8 -4.6 -4.8 +0.2
  Dec 21, 2024 189   @ South Florida L 62-88 12%     2 - 9 -24.8 -9.7 -14.5
  Jan 04, 2025 69   McNeese St. L 56-75 7%     2 - 10 0 - 3 -13.8 -13.6 -0.5
  Jan 06, 2025 177   Nicholls St. L 61-83 23%     2 - 11 0 - 4 -25.8 -8.0 -19.9
  Jan 11, 2025 244   @ Northwestern St. L 67-75 18%     2 - 12 0 - 5 -9.8 -4.3 -5.7
  Jan 13, 2025 268   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 55-57 22%     2 - 13 0 - 6 -5.1 -11.7 +6.2
  Jan 18, 2025 354   New Orleans L 73-82 69%     2 - 14 0 - 7 -25.5 -12.6 -12.5
  Jan 20, 2025 218   SE Louisiana L 68-76 30%     2 - 15 0 - 8 -13.9 -7.6 -6.3
  Jan 25, 2025 181   @ Lamar L 58-61 OT 12%     2 - 16 0 - 9 -1.5 -13.4 +12.0
  Jan 27, 2025 282   @ Stephen F. Austin L 72-79 25%     2 - 17 0 - 10 -11.2 +8.3 -20.1
  Feb 01, 2025 244   Northwestern St. W 72-50 35%     3 - 17 1 - 10 +14.7 +2.3 +14.1
  Feb 03, 2025 179   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 66-78 24%     3 - 18 1 - 11 -15.8 -3.3 -13.3
  Feb 08, 2025 177   @ Nicholls St. L 65-81 11%     3 - 19 1 - 12 -14.3 -1.4 -14.2
  Feb 10, 2025 69   @ McNeese St. L 51-67 3%     3 - 20 1 - 13 -5.3 -8.0 -0.1
  Feb 15, 2025 181   Lamar L 55-65 24%     3 - 21 1 - 14 -14.0 -14.3 -0.2
  Feb 17, 2025 282   Stephen F. Austin L 74-76 43%     3 - 22 1 - 15 -11.7 -0.2 -11.5
  Feb 22, 2025 218   @ SE Louisiana L 65-83 15%     3 - 23 1 - 16 -18.4 -4.5 -14.7
  Feb 24, 2025 354   @ New Orleans W 73-71 49%     4 - 23 2 - 16 -9.0 -8.6 -0.4
  Mar 01, 2025 262   Incarnate Word L 68-75 39%     4 - 24 2 - 17 -15.4 -1.2 -15.2
  Mar 03, 2025 285   Houston Christian W 63-59 44%     5 - 24 3 - 17 -5.9 -9.9 +4.2
Projected Record 5 - 26 3 - 17




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 100.0 100.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17 100.0% 100.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2%
Lose Out 81.7%