IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Arkansas Little Rock
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	-7.6	#292
Expected Predictive Rating	-7.3	#287

Pace	66.5	#241
Improvement	+4.6	#22

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#263	D+	C-	D	F+	D-
Defense	#298	F	D+	B	C+	D-

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	35%	#280	1.23	#98	-1.0	#212
2 Pt. Jumpers	32%	#16	0.57	#358	+1.2	#110
Three Pointers	34%	#322	1.03	#164	-3.5	#304
1st FG Attempt			0.95	#276	-3.3	#276
Freethrows	0.25	#335	66%	#340	0.16	#351
Second Chance	30.8%	#170	0.95	#279	0.29	#223
Turnovers					19.2%	#316
Total Offense					-3.4	#263

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	40%	#153	1.35	#355	-4.4	#324
2 Pt. Jumpers	13%	#358	0.82	#282	+2.7	#14
Three Pointers	47%	#32	1.20	#358	-7.7	#360
1st FG Attempt			1.21	#364	-9.4	#364
Freethrows	0.29	#155	72%	#141	0.21	#146
Second Chance	36.7%	#353	0.95	#82	0.35	#278
Turnovers					19.2%	#51
Total Defense					-4.2	#298

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	-3.3%	#343	2.1%	#348
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	-3.2%	#227	16.3%	#363
Possession Length	18.3	#291	16.7	#94
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.19	#111	0.24	#348
Improvement	+3.2	#40	+1.4	#100

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.3%	7.2%	3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.9	15.8	16.0

.500 or above	6.6%	16.4%	3.7%
.500 or above in Conference	76.8%	92.6%	72.1%
Conference Champion	2.1%	7.6%	0.5%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	3.0%	4.2%	2.6%
First Round	2.8%	5.5%	2.0%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Away) - 22.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 3
Quad 3	1 - 5	1 - 8
Quad 4	11 - 10	12 - 18

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Mon, Nov 10	254 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee	L	72 - 92	30%	-7	0 - 1		-22	-2	D+	B-	F	-20	F	F	C+
Wed, Nov 12	95 @Marquette	L	49 - 89	7%	-18	0 - 2		-31	-17	F	F	F	-16	F	B	C-
Sat, Nov 15	298 @Ball St.	W	68 - 62	40%	+2	1 - 2		+1	-3	C	A+	F	+4	F+	C	A+
Tue, Nov 18	106 @Murray St.	L	68 - 89	9%	-16	1 - 3		-14	-1	F+	A-	F	-14	F+	F	D+
Fri, Nov 21	259 @Texas St.	L	56 - 65	31%	-5	1 - 4		-12	-11	F	D	F	-1	F	A+	A+
Sat, Nov 29	137 @Southern Illinois	L	65 - 74	13%	-1	1 - 5		-5	+4	A-	D+	F	-10	F	B-	A+
Wed, Dec 3	219 @Central Arkansas	L	47 - 85	24%	-29	1 - 6		-38	-27	F	D-	F	-10	F	C+	B+
Sat, Dec 6	168 Arkansas St.	L	78 - 90	35%	-8	1 - 7		-16	+1	A-	F	B-	-16	F	D	D
Tue, Dec 9	57 @West Virginia	L	58 - 90	4%	-22	1 - 8		-20	+0	F+	B	C+	-24	F	C	C
Tue, Dec 16	299 @Morehead St.	L	64 - 78	40%	-10	1 - 9	0 - 1	-19	-17	F	D+	F	-1	F+	D	A+
Thu, Dec 18	332 @Southern Indiana	W	77 - 62	50%	+4	2 - 9	1 - 1	+7	+8	A+	F	F	+0	D	D-	D+
Thu, Jan 1	333 Tennessee Tech	W	77 - 58	72%	+5	3 - 9	2 - 1	+5	+0	B-	D-	C-	+6	A+	D+	A-
Sat, Jan 3	230 Tennessee St.	L	79 - 84	47%	-3	3 - 10	2 - 2	-12	-2	F+	B	C-	-9	C+	F	D+
Thu, Jan 8	252 @SIU Edwardsville	W	73 - 70	30%	-6	4 - 10	3 - 2	+1	+11	C	C	A+	-10	F	F	A+
Sat, Jan 10	240 @Lindenwood	W	82 - 74	28%	+5	5 - 10	4 - 2	+7	+12	B	B+	C-	-6	F	C-	B+
Thu, Jan 15	321 Eastern Illinois	W	74 - 63	70%	-4	6 - 10	5 - 2	-2	+5	C	B	C	-6	D	F	A+
Sat, Jan 17	362 Western Illinois	W	86 - 79	86%	+6	7 - 10	6 - 2	-12	+9	C	D+	A	-21	F	D	F
Thu, Jan 22	238 @Southeast Missouri St.	L	65 - 70	27%	-5	7 - 11	6 - 3	-6	-5	F	D	A+	-1	D-	A+	C
Thu, Jan 29	230 @Tennessee St.	L	63 - 70	26%	+2	7 - 12	6 - 4	-8	-10	F	B+	C-	+2	D	C-	B+
Sat, Jan 31	333 @Tennessee Tech	L	77 - 87	51%	-8	7 - 13	6 - 5	-18	+3	B+	F	B	-21	F	F	A+
Tue, Feb 3	203 @Tennessee Martin	L	65 - 73	23%
Thu, Feb 5	240 Lindenwood	L	75 - 76	49%
Sat, Feb 7	252 SIU Edwardsville	W	67 - 66	52%
Thu, Feb 12	362 @Western Illinois	W	72 - 66	70%
Sat, Feb 14	321 @Eastern Illinois	L	67 - 68	48%
Thu, Feb 19	203 Tennessee Martin	L	68 - 70	43%
Sat, Feb 21	238 Southeast Missouri St.	L	73 - 74	50%
Thu, Feb 26	299 Morehead St.	W	74 - 71	62%
Sat, Feb 28	332 Southern Indiana	W	73 - 67	72%
Totals						12 - 17	11 - 9	-8	-3	D+	C-	D	-4	F	D+	B

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0	Total
1st														0.3	1.3	0.5						2.1	1st
2nd													0.6	3.3	1.5	0.0						5.5	2nd
3rd												0.2	4.2	4.7	0.4							9.4	3rd
4th											0.1	2.6	8.2	1.2								12.1	4th
5th										0.0	1.3	9.6	4.3	0.1								15.3	5th
6th									0.0	1.0	8.3	8.8	0.7									18.8	6th
7th								0.3	2.6	10.2	11.7	2.2	0.0									27.0	7th
8th							0.1	1.2	3.8	3.2	0.7											9.0	8th
9th							0.1	0.4	0.3	0.0												0.8	9th
10th							0.0	0.0														0.0	10th
11th																							11th

Total							0.3	1.9	6.7	14.4	22.0	23.5	18.0	9.6	3.1	0.5							Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5	91.7%	0.5	0.3	0.2	0.0
14-6	41.2%	1.3	0.2	0.7	0.3	0.1
13-7	3.6%	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	2.1%	2.1	0.5	0.9	0.4	0.2	0.1

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5	0.5%	21.3%	21.3%		15.1														0.0	0.1	0.0	0.4
14-6	3.1%	21.8%	21.8%		15.8															0.1	0.5	2.5
13-7	9.6%	10.7%	10.7%		15.9															0.1	1.0	8.6
12-8	18.0%	6.5%	6.5%		16.0															0.0	1.1	16.8
11-9	23.5%	2.8%	2.8%		16.0																0.7	22.8
10-10	22.0%	1.7%	1.7%		16.0																0.4	21.7
9-11	14.4%	1.3%	1.3%		16.0																0.2	14.2
8-12	6.7%	1.1%	1.1%		16.0																0.1	6.6
7-13	1.9%	0.5%	0.5%		16.0																0.0	1.8
6-14	0.3%																					0.3
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20

Total	100%	4.3%	4.3%	0.0%	15.9																	95.7	0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	15.1	4.3	78.3	17.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.3%
Lose Out	0.3%