Arkansas Little Rock
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.6#244
Expected Predictive Rating-1.0#179
Pace68.8#188
Improvement-0.4#209

Offense
Total Offense-5.8#333
First Shot-5.5#333
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#210
Layup/Dunks-3.8#309
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#79
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#242
Freethrows-1.4#272
Improvement-2.1#317

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#129
First Shot+4.4#52
After Offensive Rebounds-3.1#353
Layups/Dunks+3.6#58
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#59
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#171
Freethrows-1.5#287
Improvement+1.6#63
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.1% 26.1% 16.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 80.5% 89.5% 72.5%
.500 or above in Conference 83.6% 91.7% 76.4%
Conference Champion 26.3% 37.4% 16.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.5% 2.7%
First Four6.1% 6.4% 5.9%
First Round17.9% 22.9% 13.6%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Away) - 46.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 21 - 5
Quad 416 - 717 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 190   @ Winthrop L 67-82 28%     0 - 1 -13.5 -12.6 +0.7
  Nov 12, 2024 105   @ Arkansas St. L 63-80 13%     0 - 2 -9.6 -2.4 -7.9
  Nov 16, 2024 226   @ Texas San Antonio W 81-64 35%     1 - 2 +16.5 +4.0 +12.0
  Nov 20, 2024 239   @ Tulsa W 71-57 38%     2 - 2 +12.6 +5.6 +8.6
  Nov 22, 2024 31   @ Arkansas L 67-79 4%     2 - 3 +3.9 -3.3 +8.1
  Nov 25, 2024 21   @ Illinois L 34-92 3%     2 - 4 -40.2 -29.1 -12.3
  Nov 27, 2024 359   Maryland Eastern Shore W 78-59 88%     3 - 4 +1.9 -1.3 +3.7
  Dec 04, 2024 338   Central Arkansas W 63-57 82%     4 - 4 -8.2 -18.7 +10.2
  Dec 15, 2024 192   Illinois-Chicago L 69-77 OT 50%     4 - 5 -12.6 -8.1 -4.3
  Dec 19, 2024 281   SIU Edwardsville W 60-56 68%     5 - 5 1 - 0 -5.4 -13.0 +7.7
  Jan 02, 2025 288   @ Tennessee Martin L 67-68 47%    
  Jan 04, 2025 317   @ Tennessee St. W 72-71 55%    
  Jan 09, 2025 276   Morehead St. W 69-64 67%    
  Jan 11, 2025 325   Southern Indiana W 72-64 76%    
  Jan 14, 2025 270   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 68-70 43%    
  Jan 18, 2025 328   @ Tennessee Tech W 70-68 57%    
  Jan 23, 2025 331   @ Western Illinois W 66-64 59%    
  Jan 25, 2025 347   @ Lindenwood W 70-66 65%    
  Jan 30, 2025 317   Tennessee St. W 75-68 75%    
  Feb 01, 2025 288   Tennessee Martin W 70-65 68%    
  Feb 06, 2025 325   @ Southern Indiana W 69-67 56%    
  Feb 08, 2025 276   @ Morehead St. L 66-67 46%    
  Feb 11, 2025 270   Southeast Missouri St. W 71-67 65%    
  Feb 13, 2025 328   Tennessee Tech W 73-65 76%    
  Feb 20, 2025 347   Lindenwood W 73-63 82%    
  Feb 22, 2025 331   Western Illinois W 69-61 78%    
  Feb 27, 2025 326   @ Eastern Illinois W 67-65 56%    
  Mar 01, 2025 281   @ SIU Edwardsville L 65-66 46%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 12 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.6 6.1 7.1 5.7 3.0 1.2 0.2 26.3 1st
2nd 0.4 3.2 6.7 5.4 2.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 18.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.7 6.2 4.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 14.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 5.4 3.4 0.6 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.1 3.4 0.6 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.5 3.2 0.6 0.0 6.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.4 2.7 0.8 0.0 5.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.0 0.8 0.0 3.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.1 2.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.6 4.7 6.9 10.0 12.5 13.9 14.3 12.6 9.6 6.2 3.1 1.2 0.2 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 99.8% 1.2    1.2 0.0
17-3 98.6% 3.0    2.9 0.1
16-4 91.1% 5.7    4.8 0.9 0.0
15-5 74.4% 7.1    4.8 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-6 48.5% 6.1    2.7 2.5 0.8 0.1
13-7 18.0% 2.6    0.6 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-8 2.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 26.3% 26.3 17.1 6.8 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.2% 57.9% 57.9% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
18-2 1.2% 54.8% 54.8% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5
17-3 3.1% 50.3% 50.3% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.0 1.5
16-4 6.2% 45.3% 45.3% 15.0 0.0 0.5 1.7 0.5 3.4
15-5 9.6% 40.6% 40.6% 15.4 0.0 0.2 1.9 1.7 5.7
14-6 12.6% 32.2% 32.2% 15.7 0.0 1.2 2.8 8.6
13-7 14.3% 23.7% 23.7% 15.8 0.0 0.5 2.9 10.9
12-8 13.9% 15.9% 15.9% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.1 11.7
11-9 12.5% 10.3% 10.3% 16.0 0.1 1.2 11.2
10-10 10.0% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.0 0.7 9.3
9-11 6.9% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.3 6.6
8-12 4.7% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 4.6
7-13 2.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.6
6-14 1.3% 1.3
5-15 0.6% 0.6
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 21.1% 21.1% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 6.5 12.4 78.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.7 1.8 41.8 45.5 10.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%