Cal Poly
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -3.8 231
Results Rating -3.0 215
Pace 83.0 1
Improvement +4.7 28

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 191 C C- F+ B- A-
Defense D+ 258 D+ D+ C- C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 213 C 58% 182 -0.7 215
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 361 F 26% 365 -6.1 365
Three Pointers 55% 1 C 34% 174 +7.5 14
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- +1.6 17 C- -0.9 203
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 148
Second Chance C 30.6% 174 D+ 0.97 273 C- 0.30 210
Turnovers F+ 20.8% 353
Freethrows C+ 0.31 155 B+ 78% 20 B- 0.24 100
Total Offense C -0.9 191

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots F+ 32% 353 C 10.6% 159
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F -1% 365 F+ 8.7% 341
Three Pointers D 79% 298 C 0.9% 180
Total D+ 51% 272 C+ 5.1% 120

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 180 D+ 62% 286 +1.6 231
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 317 C- 39% 238 -1.5 70
Three Pointers 45% 61 C 34% 179 +2.1 283
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.6 273 C- +1.5 241
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.06 247
Second Chance C- 32.0% 250 C- 1.07 245 D+ 0.34 262
Turnovers C- 16.2% 214
Freethrows C+ 0.29 138 C- 73% 219 C+ 0.21 143
Total Defense D+ -2.9 258

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 45% 120 D 6.6% 338
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 18% 51 D+ 3.1% 288
Three Pointers C- 86% 251 D 0.3% 309
Total C 55% 174 D- 3.2% 343

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 14.5 5 17.2 174
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 95 0.21 309
Improvement +3.9 #25 +0.8 #139

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 260 232 198
Results Rating Rank 243 220 185
Conference Record 9 - 11 10 - 10 11 - 9
Conference Finish 8 8 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 16.0
.500 or above 0% 1% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 69% 90% 28%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 0% 1%
First Round1% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Long Beach St. (Home) - 67.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 23 - 33 - 5
Quad 35 - 78 - 12
Quad 44 - 712 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 56 @USC L 64 - 94 7% -12  0% 0 - 1 F+ -17 F -14 C- D+ F C+ +1 C A- C
 Sat, Nov 8 122 @Seattle W 73 - 71 18% -4  14% 1 - 1 B- +8 C+ +2 B+ C+ F B+ +6 D+ C+ A
 Wed, Nov 12 91 @Colorado St. L 79 - 93 12% -9  0% 1 - 2 D+ -5 C- -1 B F+ D+ D+ -3 C- B D-
 Fri, Nov 14 194 @Montana L 82 - 90 32% -7  3% 1 - 3 D+ -7 D+ -3 D+ C D C- -3 A- F+ F
 Thu, Nov 20 99 @Utah W 92 - 85 14% +7  90% 2 - 3 A- +15 B- +4 A+ C+ F A +10 B- A+ B+
 Mon, Nov 24 304 @Northern Arizona L 87 - 93 56% -0  35% 2 - 4 D- -11 D+ -4 B- F F+ D- -7 F+ F+ D+
 Tue, Nov 25 222 Southeast Missouri St. L 68 - 84 49% -3  54% 2 - 5 F -19 F -11 F A F D- -8 D+ D+ D+
 Thu, Dec 4 208 @Cal St. Fullerton W 94 - 91 34% +5  85% 3 - 5 1 - 0 C+ +3 C +2 A+ F F C+ +1 C- D- A-
 Sat, Dec 6 283 UC Riverside L 84 - 88 72% -7  14% 3 - 6 1 - 1 D- -14 C+ +4 B+ F+ D- F -17 D- F F
 Tue, Dec 16 164 Montana St. L 80 - 83 48% -3  18% 3 - 7 D+ -6 C +1 F A+ C+ D- -7 A- F F
 Fri, Dec 19 37 @UCLA L 87 - 108 4% -7  23% 3 - 8 C- -4 B+ +9 A+ C+ F F -11 F A D-
 Sun, Dec 21 187 Idaho L 80 - 83 OT 53% -7  5% 3 - 9 D+ -8 F -10 F F D B- +3 B+ C- C+
 Thu, Jan 1 134 UC San Diego W 67 - 65 40% -2  17% 4 - 9 2 - 1 C +1 D+ -3 D- C+ B B +4 A+ F C
 Sat, Jan 3 263 @Long Beach St. L 66 - 74 46% -10  1% 4 - 10 2 - 2 D -11 F -11 F C B C+ +0 D+ C C-
 Thu, Jan 8 159 @Cal St. Northridge L 90 - 95 26% +3  73% 4 - 11 2 - 3 C- -2 B- +4 C C C D -6 F D C
 Sat, Jan 10 177 UC Davis W 84 - 78 51% -6  9% 5 - 11 3 - 3 C+ +2 C+ +3 D C A+ C -1 B+ C D-
 Thu, Jan 15 119 Hawaii L 66 - 86 36% -8  2% 5 - 12 3 - 4 F -20 F -12 C+ B- F D -6 D- C+ C
 Thu, Jan 22 141 @UC Santa Barbara L 67 - 107 23% -24  0% 5 - 13 3 - 5 F -36 D- -6 C- D- D- F -32 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 208 Cal St. Fullerton L 78 - 93 57% -8  8% 5 - 14 3 - 6 F -21 D -4 C- B+ F F -15 F C C-
 Thu, Jan 29 332 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 104 - 79 67% +15  83% 6 - 14 4 - 6 A- +17 A+ +15 A+ C F C -0 F+ F B+
 Sat, Jan 31 283 @UC Riverside W 94 - 87 50% +2  67% 7 - 14 5 - 6 C+ +3 A +12 A- C+ C- F+ -10 F+ F A
 Thu, Feb 5 159 Cal St. Northridge L 96 - 97 47% -5  18% 7 - 15 5 - 7 C- -4 B+ +8 A+ C D- F -12 F F C-
 Sat, Feb 7 177 @UC Davis L 58 - 67 29% +2  72% 7 - 16 5 - 8 D+ -7 F -15 F D- F A- +8 A- C+ A-
 Thu, Feb 12 120 UC Irvine W 79 - 73 36% -2  41% 8 - 16 6 - 8 B- +6 C- -1 B A F B+ +6 C A+ A-
 Sat, Feb 14 141 UC Santa Barbara W 89 - 79 43% -0  54% 9 - 16 7 - 8 B- +8 A +14 A B- A D -5 B F F
 Thu, Feb 19 119 @Hawaii W 86 - 75 18% +6  96% 10 - 16 8 - 8 A- +17 B- +5 B+ F C A +11 A B B-
 Thu, Feb 26 263 Long Beach St. W 84 - 79 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 134 @UC San Diego L 75 - 84 22%
 Thu, Mar 5 120 @UC Irvine L 74 - 84 18%
 Sat, Mar 7 332 Cal St. Bakersfield W 90 - 80 84%
Totals 12 - 18 10 - 10 -4 C -1 D C- A- D+ -3 C B+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C F C C- 37% 14% 55% A- C C D+ C- F+ C+ B+ B- D+ D+ C- C C- 39% 16% 45% D+ D+ C- C- D+ C- C+ C- C+
1.07 58% 26% 34% -1 +2 1.03 31% 1.0 .30 21% .31 78% .24 1.13 62% 39% 34% +2 +1 1.06 32% 1.1 .34 16% .29 73% .23
Nov
3		 USC F F+ A D D- 48% 4% 48% A+ C- A- F D+ F F F F C+ C A+ D B- 46% 9% 44% F C C A+ A- C F B+ F
0.77 44% 50% 30% -9 +3 0.89 35% 0.6 .21 27% .20 58% .12 1.13 60% 20% 38% +2 +2 1.09 36% 0.8 .28 17% .58 68% .39
Nov
8		 Seattle C+ D- D A- B 32% 6% 62% B+ B+ A F C+ F A+ C+ A+ B+ D+ F B- D+ 44% 11% 45% D- D+ F A+ C+ A B+ A+ A+
0.96 47% 33% 38% 0 +1 1.04 41% 0.7 .29 30% .41 73% .30 0.93 63% 50% 32% +2 +2 1.09 32% 0.6 .19 22% .24 36% .08
Nov
12		 Colorado St. C- D B A- B- 31% 13% 56% B B D F F+ D+ C F D+ D+ C- A+ F C- 33% 5% 61% D- C- A+ F B D- C+ F D-
1.05 53% 43% 39% +3 0 1.09 22% 0.9 .20 17% .29 61% .18 1.24 63% 0% 43% +8 +2 1.21 19% 1.7 .31 15% .31 95% .30
Nov
14		 Montana D+ D- F C D- 59% 10% 31% A+ D+ C C C D C+ C+ C+ C- D- A+ A A 36% 14% 50% C- A- C F F+ F F D+ F
1.01 53% 17% 33% -6 +3 0.97 29% 1.0 .29 17% .31 71% .22 1.11 67% 25% 28% -3 +1 0.97 23% 1.4 .33 15% .42 79% .33
Nov
20		 Utah B- F D- A+ A 56% 6% 38% A+ A+ C- B C+ F A+ F A+ A C+ C- B- B+ 47% 8% 45% F B- A+ C- A+ B+ C- F D
1.10 45% 33% 60% +7 +3 1.23 28% 1.1 .31 23% .48 58% .28 1.02 57% 40% 33% -1 +2 1.05 16% 1.0 .16 19% .33 82% .27
Nov
24		 Northern Arizona D+ B F C+ C 43% 2% 55% A- B- F+ F F F+ F+ A- D D- C- F F F 39% 21% 39% C- F+ F+ D F+ D+ F A+ F
1.10 65% 0% 36% +4 +3 1.17 26% 0.9 .23 20% .24 80% .19 1.17 59% 50% 41% +7 0 1.16 30% 1.1 .33 15% .49 55% .27
Nov
25		 Southeast Missouri St. F F F F F 34% 15% 51% C F A C+ A F A+ A+ A+ D- C- F A- C- 50% 7% 43% F D+ F+ B D+ D+ B+ F D+
0.91 31% 14% 21% -23 0 0.57 38% 1.2 .45 25% .66 84% .56 1.12 59% 50% 28% -3 +3 1.02 34% 1.1 .37 16% .27 88% .24
Dec
4		 Cal St. Fullerton C D+ A A+ A+ 27% 4% 69% B A+ F F F F A+ C+ A+ C+ B+ F+ F C- 41% 22% 37% C C- D- D D- A- F B- F
1.10 57% 50% 50% +17 +1 1.38 17% 0.0 .00 26% .47 73% .35 1.06 50% 46% 41% +2 0 1.07 30% 1.1 .33 20% .42 69% .29
Dec
6		 UC Riverside C+ A- A+ C B 45% 6% 49% A- B+ C F F+ D- A+ A+ A+ F F F A+ D- 48% 19% 33% D D- C F F F D- A- D+
1.18 68% 67% 33% +6 +2 1.18 30% 0.6 .18 18% .45 81% .36 1.23 73% 50% 22% +4 +1 1.11 27% 1.3 .36 7% .36 67% .24
Dec
16		 Montana St. C F D- F F 45% 6% 49% A- F A A+ A+ C+ A+ D- A+ D- F A+ A+ A 30% 14% 55% F+ A- D F F F F A- F
1.11 41% 33% 25% -15 +2 0.78 40% 1.6 .64 15% .51 71% .36 1.16 76% 25% 23% -6 0 0.91 32% 1.5 .48 11% .39 68% .27
Dec
19		 UCLA B+ A F A+ A+ 34% 2% 64% A+ A+ C B- C+ F A+ A+ A+ F F B+ F F 51% 5% 44% F F A+ F A D- F F F
1.11 69% 0% 43% +12 +2 1.30 29% 1.0 .29 31% .40 95% .38 1.37 72% 33% 44% +14 +3 1.35 16% 1.8 .28 10% .41 90% .37
Dec
21		 Idaho F C+ A F F 33% 7% 60% A F D+ F F D A+ B+ A+ B- A+ A+ F B- 19% 26% 54% A+ B+ B F C- C+ F D+ F
0.96 61% 50% 21% -10 +1 0.85 23% 0.5 .11 17% .57 79% .45 1.00 36% 20% 42% -2 -2 0.93 24% 1.2 .28 17% .41 75% .30
Jan
1		 UC San Diego D+ C+ F F+ F+ 26% 7% 67% B- D- B+ D C+ B C- C+ C- B A+ A+ A+ A+ 32% 15% 53% B A+ F F F C B- F D+
1.01 57% 0% 28% -9 +1 0.85 36% 0.9 .33 14% .24 71% .17 0.98 41% 25% 25% -15 0 0.74 35% 1.2 .42 17% .23 85% .20
Jan
3		 Long Beach St. F F F D- F 35% 8% 56% B F D- A+ C B A- D+ B C+ F A- A+ C- 47% 26% 26% F+ D+ B+ F C C- C- B C
0.93 35% 0% 30% -15 +1 0.75 22% 1.6 .36 15% .42 72% .30 1.04 76% 29% 21% +1 0 1.04 21% 1.3 .27 17% .29 71% .20
Jan
8		 Cal St. Northridge B- C F B- C 23% 13% 64% C C D A+ C C C C+ C+ D D+ D- F F 53% 13% 34% D F F B- D C F A- D-
1.11 57% 25% 36% 0 0 1.02 23% 1.4 .32 16% .31 76% .24 1.17 61% 43% 50% +10 +2 1.26 41% 0.9 .38 17% .40 59% .24
Jan
10		 UC Davis C+ C+ A+ F D 28% 11% 60% C- D F A+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ C B- A D- B- 20% 33% 47% A+ B+ B+ F C D- B- F C-
1.14 60% 50% 28% -3 0 0.96 20% 1.6 .31 14% .44 93% .41 1.06 55% 28% 38% -1 -3 0.95 23% 1.2 .28 15% .32 85% .27
Jan
15		 Hawaii F C A+ F+ C- 40% 8% 52% A- C+ A D- B- F C F D D F F A- F 40% 21% 39% B+ D- C- B- C+ C A+ F A
0.85 55% 50% 27% -6 +2 0.94 36% 0.9 .31 30% .31 59% .18 1.10 70% 58% 27% +5 0 1.12 31% 1.0 .31 19% .22 86% .19
Jan
22		 UC Santa Barbara D- A+ F F D+ 39% 7% 54% A- C- F B D- D- C+ D+ C F F A F F 41% 13% 46% D F F D F F A+ B A+
1.00 78% 0% 28% 0 +2 1.07 17% 1.2 .21 19% .37 70% .26 1.60 95% 29% 56% +29 +1 1.63 45% 1.1 .50 13% .19 73% .14
Jan
24		 Cal St. Fullerton D D- A+ C- C- 28% 6% 67% B- C- A+ D B+ F D+ C+ D+ F D F F F 38% 10% 52% F F F A+ C C- F F F
1.06 53% 100% 33% +1 +1 1.07 43% 0.9 .40 26% .27 73% .20 1.26 65% 60% 41% +10 +1 1.25 34% 0.7 .24 15% .41 81% .33
Jan
29		 Cal St. Bakersfield A+ A+ F A A+ 49% 2% 49% A+ A+ A F C F D+ A+ A C B+ F D- F 31% 29% 40% C- F+ D- F F B+ A+ A+ A+
1.34 78% 0% 41% +14 +3 1.36 48% 0.8 .38 24% .34 100% .34 1.02 47% 50% 36% +1 -2 1.02 37% 1.2 .45 22% .23 50% .12
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 UC Riverside A A- A+ C+ B+ 52% 6% 43% A A- B+ D- C+ C- C A+ B F+ D+ F D+ F 35% 31% 33% A F+ F B+ F A F A F
1.26 68% 67% 35% +7 +3 1.22 38% 0.8 .31 16% .34 81% .27 1.17 61% 56% 35% +7 -2 1.14 54% 0.7 .38 24% .46 65% .30
Feb
5		 Cal St. Northridge B+ A+ B+ A+ 33% 0% 67% A A+ F A+ C D- F A+ D+ F C+ F F F 49% 17% 33% C F B+ F F C- A+ D- A+
1.20 74% 38% +10 +2 1.26 16% 2.0 .32 19% .22 93% .20 1.22 55% 55% 48% +8 +1 1.21 27% 1.6 .43 16% .15 70% .10
Feb
7		 UC Davis F F A+ F F 41% 2% 57% A- F C+ F D- F D- A+ B A- C A+ A A 42% 15% 44% F+ A- F A+ C+ A- B- F D+
0.84 32% 100% 27% -16 +3 0.76 33% 0.7 .23 27% .28 100% .28 0.97 60% 14% 29% -6 +1 0.92 38% 0.7 .25 22% .31 88% .28
Feb
12		 UC Irvine C- B F B- B- 28% 10% 62% B+ B B A A F B+ C B+ B+ A A+ F C 34% 22% 44% C- C B A+ A+ A- A- D B+
0.99 57% 0% 35% -3 +1 0.98 39% 1.1 .43 26% .31 72% .22 0.92 45% 23% 42% -2 0 0.97 28% 0.5 .15 21% .22 71% .16
Feb
14		 UC Santa Barbara A A A B A- 43% 8% 49% A- A C B+ B- A A A A+ D A F B- B+ 28% 15% 57% C+ B B+ F F F C- B C
1.33 71% 50% 38% +9 +2 1.24 28% 1.3 .34 12% .44 81% .36 1.18 47% 63% 33% 0 0 1.02 27% 1.6 .43 12% .32 74% .24
Feb
19		 Hawaii B- A+ F F+ B 47% 8% 44% A B+ F F F C A A+ A+ A F+ A+ A+ A+ 49% 10% 41% D- A C A B B- F B F
1.04 71% 0% 27% -2 +2 1.03 14% 0.6 .08 16% .39 81% .32 0.91 68% 0% 14% -11 +2 0.84 31% 0.8 .26 21% .58 68% .40



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 0.7 3rd
4th 1.0 1.7 2.7 4th
5th 0.1 7.0 0.4 7.5 5th
6th 3.4 8.5 0.0 11.9 6th
7th 0.0 17.8 3.3 21.1 7th
8th 4.0 26.5 25.3 0.2 56.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 4.0 26.5 46.7 20.0 2.8 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8
11-9 20.0% 1.3% 1.3% 15.5 0.1 0.1 19.7
10-10 46.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4 46.2
9-11 26.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.2 26.4
8-12 4.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 15.7 99.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 14.5 4.2 45.8 50.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%
Lose Out 2.8%