Cal Poly
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.9 #263
Expected Predictive Rating -4.8 #241
Pace 84.3 #1
Improvement -0.1 #192

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #208 C C- F+ B- B+
Defense #296 D+ D+ C- C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #206 1.12 #225 -1.3 #233
2 Pt. Jumpers 7% #360 0.50 #365 -5.9 #365
Three Pointers 55% #1 1.02 #181 +7.4 #13
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #173 +0.2 #171
Freethrows 0.32 #141 77% #49 0.24 #99
Second Chance 30.5% #181 0.97 #253 0.30 #212
Turnovers 20.4% #349
Total Offense -1.7 #208

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #189 1.25 #297 -1.8 #238
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #299 0.80 #262 +1.2 #95
Three Pointers 45% #67 1.03 #206 -2.3 #286
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #277 -2.9 #278
Freethrows 0.29 #159 73% #202 0.21 #160
Second Chance 33.0% #280 1.07 #247 0.35 #280
Turnovers 15.4% #251
Total Defense -4.2 #296

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.2% #18 1.0% #270
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.8% #221 4.6% #269
Possession Length 14.5 #6 17.1 #155
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #170 0.20 #276
Improvement +3.1 #50 -3.2 #333

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 15.3% 25.2% 6.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 0.7% 3.7%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Northridge (Home) - 46.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 6
Quad 34 - 86 - 14
Quad 45 - 610 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 48 @USC L 64 - 94 4% -12  0 - 1 -16 -11 C- D+ F -0 C B C
 Sat, Nov 8 124 @Seattle W 73 - 71 15% -4  1 - 1 +7 +3 B C F +4 D+ C+ A-
 Wed, Nov 12 103 @Colorado St. L 79 - 93 11% -9  1 - 2 -6 +2 B- F C- -7 C- B- F+
 Fri, Nov 14 158 @Montana L 82 - 90 20% -7  1 - 3 -5 +0 C C- D -4 B+ D- F
 Thu, Nov 20 104 @Utah W 92 - 85 11% +7  2 - 3 +14 +5 A+ C F +8 B A+ A-
 Mon, Nov 24 313 @Northern Arizona L 87 - 93 51% -0  2 - 4 -12 -1 C+ F F+ -10 F+ D- D+
 Tue, Nov 25 238 Southeast Missouri St. L 68 - 84 44% -3  2 - 5 -20 -10 F A- F -9 C- D+ C-
 Thu, Dec 4 224 @Cal St. Fullerton W 94 - 91 30% +5  3 - 5 1 - 0 +3 +5 A+ F F -3 D+ D- A-
 Sat, Dec 6 291 UC Riverside L 84 - 88 67% -7  3 - 6 1 - 1 -15 +5 B F+ D -19 D- F F
 Tue, Dec 16 166 Montana St. L 80 - 83 41% -3  3 - 7 -6 +3 F A+ C+ -10 B+ F F
 Fri, Dec 19 35 @UCLA L 87 - 108 3% -7  3 - 8 -4 +13 A+ C F -15 F A- F+
 Sun, Dec 21 185 Idaho L 80 - 83 OT 45% -7  3 - 9 -8 -8 F F D +1 B C B-
 Thu, Jan 1 138 UC San Diego W 67 - 65 34% -2  4 - 9 2 - 1 +0 -2 D C+ B +2 A+ F C+
 Sat, Jan 3 255 @Long Beach St. L 66 - 74 37% -10  4 - 10 2 - 2 -10 -9 F C C+ -1 C- C+ C
 Thu, Jan 8 187 @Cal St. Northridge L 90 - 95 25% +3  4 - 11 2 - 3 -4 +6 C C C -9 F D- C-
 Sat, Jan 10 189 UC Davis W 84 - 78 47% -6  5 - 11 3 - 3 +1 +4 D C A -4 B+ C D
 Thu, Jan 15 102 Hawaii L 66 - 86 23% -8  5 - 12 3 - 4 -18 -9 C+ C+ F -7 D C+ C
 Thu, Jan 22 130 @UC Santa Barbara L 67 - 107 16% -24  5 - 13 3 - 5 -35 -2 C D- D -35 F F F+
 Sat, Jan 24 224 Cal St. Fullerton L 78 - 93 52% -8  5 - 14 3 - 6 -21 -1 C B F -20 F C C-
 Thu, Jan 29 319 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 104 - 79 53% +15  6 - 14 4 - 6 +18 +18 A+ C- F -2 D- F B
 Sat, Jan 31 291 @UC Riverside W 94 - 87 45% +2  7 - 14 5 - 6 +2 +14 B+ C+ C- -12 F+ F A-
 Thu, Feb 5 187 Cal St. Northridge L 90 - 91 46%
 Sat, Feb 7 189 @UC Davis L 81 - 88 25%
 Thu, Feb 12 118 UC Irvine L 76 - 82 29%
 Sat, Feb 14 130 UC Santa Barbara L 79 - 84 32%
 Fri, Feb 20 102 @Hawaii L 75 - 89 11%
 Thu, Feb 26 255 Long Beach St. W 84 - 82 60%
 Sat, Feb 28 138 @UC San Diego L 76 - 86 18%
 Thu, Mar 5 118 @UC Irvine L 73 - 85 13%
 Sat, Mar 7 319 Cal St. Bakersfield W 88 - 81 73%
Totals 10 - 20 8 - 12 -6 -2 C C- F+ -4 D+ D+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.1 4th
5th 1.1 3.6 1.4 0.0 6.2 5th
6th 0.9 6.4 4.6 0.3 12.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 8.6 10.1 1.4 0.0 21.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 11.1 15.6 3.8 0.1 32.0 8th
9th 1.0 6.3 10.1 2.5 0.1 19.9 9th
10th 1.3 2.4 0.8 0.0 4.5 10th
11th 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
Total 2.6 10.2 22.9 27.5 21.6 10.8 3.5 0.8 0.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 6.5% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.2% 0.2
12-8 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 15.0 0.0 0.8
11-9 3.5% 1.9% 1.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 3.4
10-10 10.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.7
9-11 21.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 21.5
8-12 27.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 27.4
7-13 22.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 22.9
6-14 10.2% 10.2
5-15 2.6% 2.6
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.9 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.6%