Cal Poly
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.3 #253
Expected Predictive Rating -5.6 #254
Pace 84.6 #3
Improvement +0.1 #177

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #261 C D+ F B A
Defense #249 C C D+ C D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #191 1.02 #320 -2.9 #281
2 Pt. Jumpers 7% #363 0.37 #365 -6.4 #365
Three Pointers 55% #2 1.06 #119 +8.5 #6
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #194 -0.7 #193
Freethrows 19.7 #72 73% #166 14.4 #76
Second Chance 30.1% #206 0.95 #288 0.29 #258
Turnovers 20.2% #348
Total Offense -3.0 #261

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #128 1.23 #274 -2.7 #270
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #342 0.67 #77 +3.0 #8
Three Pointers 45% #63 0.97 #131 -1.2 #227
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #212 -0.9 #212
Freethrows 17.9 #207 72% #172 12.9 #154
Second Chance 29.5% #133 1.13 #288 0.33 #215
Turnovers 15.1% #274
Total Defense -2.4 #249

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.4% #17 2.0% #338
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.7% #250 -0.1% #176
Possession Length 14.6 #10 16.7 #95
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #164 0.23 #325
Improvement +0.3 #165 -0.2 #203

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.9% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 1.1% 2.1% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 20.4% 30.7% 12.0%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 15.6% 8.5% 21.4%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round0.6% 0.9% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Davis (Home) - 45.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 6
Quad 34 - 75 - 13
Quad 45 - 810 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 46 @USC L 64 - 94 5%  -12  0 - 1 -16 -12 D D F +1 B- A- C-
 Sat, Nov 8 120 @Seattle W 73 - 71 15%  -4  1 - 1 +8 +1 B+ C F +6 D+ B A+
 Wed, Nov 12 94 @Colorado St. L 79 - 93 10%  -9  1 - 2 -5 +2 B F D -6 C A- F
 Fri, Nov 14 178 @Montana L 82 - 90 25%  -7  1 - 3 -6 -2 C D D- -4 A- F F
 Thu, Nov 20 117 @Utah W 92 - 85 14%  +7  2 - 3 +13 +5 A+ C F +7 C+ A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 302 @Northern Arizona L 87 - 93 48%  -0  2 - 4 -11 +2 B F F -12 F F D
 Tue, Nov 25 218 Southeast Missouri St. L 68 - 84 41%  -3  2 - 5 -19 -10 F A- F -8 D+ C+ C-
 Thu, Dec 4 232 @Cal St. Fullerton W 94 - 91 33%  +5  3 - 5 1 - 0 +2 +3 A+ F F -2 C- D- A+
 Sat, Dec 6 295 UC Riverside L 84 - 88 69%  -7  3 - 6 1 - 1 -15 +4 B+ F F -19 D F F
 Tue, Dec 16 153 Montana St. L 80 - 83 41%  -3  3 - 7 -6 +4 F A+ C -10 B+ F F
 Fri, Dec 19 38 @UCLA L 87 - 108 3%  -7  3 - 8 -5 +11 A+ C F -14 F A- F
 Sun, Dec 21 195 Idaho L 80 - 83 OT 49%  -7  3 - 9 -8 -9 F F D- +1 B- C+ B-
 Thu, Jan 1 108 UC San Diego W 67 - 65 26%  -2  4 - 9 2 - 1 +3 -3 F C A- +6 A+ F B
 Sat, Jan 3 262 @Long Beach St. L 66 - 74 40%  -10  4 - 10 2 - 2 -11 -9 F C B- -1 D+ C+ C+
 Thu, Jan 8 211 @Cal St. Northridge L 90 - 95 29%  +3  4 - 11 2 - 3 -5 +5 C C- D+ -9 F D- C
 Sat, Jan 10 171 UC Davis L 83 - 84 45% 
 Thu, Jan 15 98 Hawaii L 74 - 82 24% 
 Thu, Jan 22 181 @UC Santa Barbara L 77 - 84 26% 
 Sat, Jan 24 232 Cal St. Fullerton W 91 - 89 55% 
 Thu, Jan 29 294 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 81 - 82 47% 
 Sat, Jan 31 295 @UC Riverside L 80 - 81 47% 
 Thu, Feb 5 211 Cal St. Northridge W 89 - 88 51% 
 Sat, Feb 7 171 @UC Davis L 80 - 87 25% 
 Thu, Feb 12 121 UC Irvine L 75 - 80 34% 
 Sat, Feb 14 181 UC Santa Barbara L 80 - 81 47% 
 Fri, Feb 20 98 @Hawaii L 71 - 85 11% 
 Thu, Feb 26 262 Long Beach St. W 82 - 79 63% 
 Sat, Feb 28 108 @UC San Diego L 75 - 88 13% 
 Thu, Mar 5 121 @UC Irvine L 72 - 83 16% 
 Sat, Mar 7 294 Cal St. Bakersfield W 84 - 79 68% 
Totals 10 - 20 8 - 12 -5 -3 C D+ F -2 C C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 6.2 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 4.4 2.1 0.2 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.1 2.2 6.5 3.5 0.4 0.0 12.7 6th
7th 0.1 2.1 7.6 5.1 0.8 0.0 15.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 7.6 6.0 0.9 0.0 16.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 6.0 6.2 1.4 0.0 15.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.4 5.0 5.3 1.5 0.0 13.4 10th
11th 0.2 1.2 2.7 2.8 0.9 0.1 8.0 11th
Total 0.2 1.4 4.3 9.6 13.9 17.6 17.4 15.3 10.4 5.8 2.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 58.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0
14-6 15.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.1% 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.3% 10.9% 10.9% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-7 1.0% 7.0% 7.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.9
12-8 2.8% 4.1% 4.1% 15.2 0.1 0.0 2.7
11-9 5.8% 1.6% 1.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 5.7
10-10 10.4% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 10.3
9-11 15.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 15.2
8-12 17.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 17.4
7-13 17.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.6
6-14 13.9% 13.9
5-15 9.6% 9.6
4-16 4.3% 4.3
3-17 1.4% 1.4
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.6 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%