Cal Poly
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#271
Expected Predictive Rating-2.2#201
Pace85.4#1
Improvement-4.3#350

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#220
First Shot-1.9#227
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#177
Layup/Dunks-0.6#206
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#339
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#65
Freethrows-1.9#289
Improvement+0.1#164

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#298
First Shot-2.9#274
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#277
Layups/Dunks-1.8#253
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#231
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#260
Freethrows+0.9#119
Improvement-4.5#362
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.6% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.3 14.8
.500 or above 4.7% 12.6% 3.1%
.500 or above in Conference 8.2% 19.8% 6.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 34.7% 19.4% 37.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Irvine (Home) - 16.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 33 - 84 - 15
Quad 47 - 511 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 62   @ San Francisco L 78-86 6%     0 - 1 +3.5 +2.4 +2.2
  Nov 07, 2024 128   @ California L 73-91 16%     0 - 2 -13.1 -5.4 -6.3
  Nov 14, 2024 143   Seattle W 75-71 36%     1 - 2 +1.8 -3.0 +4.7
  Nov 17, 2024 254   @ Eastern Washington W 82-78 36%     2 - 2 +1.9 -3.4 +4.8
  Nov 20, 2024 59   @ Arizona St. L 89-93 6%     2 - 3 +8.3 +13.4 -4.6
  Nov 23, 2024 53   @ St. Mary's L 66-80 5%     2 - 4 -0.7 -1.5 +1.0
  Nov 26, 2024 310   Grambling St. W 82-79 70%     3 - 4 -8.3 +3.6 -11.9
  Nov 30, 2024 94   @ Stanford W 97-90 10%     4 - 4 +15.4 +18.4 -3.6
  Dec 05, 2024 223   @ UC Davis L 66-77 30%     4 - 5 0 - 1 -11.5 -11.9 +2.0
  Dec 07, 2024 153   Cal St. Northridge L 91-102 38%     4 - 6 0 - 2 -13.9 +3.4 -15.4
  Dec 14, 2024 162   @ San Jose St. L 100-107 OT 20%     4 - 7 -4.1 +5.3 -7.9
  Dec 17, 2024 317   Denver W 95-94 OT 72%     5 - 7 -10.9 -0.6 -10.4
  Dec 21, 2024 294   @ Nebraska Omaha L 82-86 44%     5 - 8 -8.2 +2.8 -10.8
  Jan 02, 2025 75   UC Irvine L 74-84 16%    
  Jan 05, 2025 166   @ Hawaii L 74-82 21%    
  Jan 09, 2025 90   @ UC San Diego L 72-87 8%    
  Jan 11, 2025 146   UC Santa Barbara L 78-81 38%    
  Jan 16, 2025 223   UC Davis W 80-79 52%    
  Jan 18, 2025 75   @ UC Irvine L 71-87 7%    
  Jan 25, 2025 259   Long Beach St. W 79-77 59%    
  Jan 30, 2025 260   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 75-79 37%    
  Feb 01, 2025 177   @ UC Riverside L 76-84 23%    
  Feb 06, 2025 166   Hawaii L 77-79 41%    
  Feb 13, 2025 276   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 75-78 41%    
  Feb 15, 2025 153   @ Cal St. Northridge L 82-91 21%    
  Feb 20, 2025 90   UC San Diego L 75-84 21%    
  Feb 22, 2025 177   UC Riverside L 79-81 43%    
  Feb 27, 2025 146   @ UC Santa Barbara L 75-84 20%    
  Mar 01, 2025 260   Cal St. Bakersfield W 78-76 59%    
  Mar 06, 2025 276   Cal St. Fullerton W 78-75 62%    
  Mar 08, 2025 259   @ Long Beach St. L 76-80 37%    
Projected Record 11 - 20 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.1 1.4 0.2 6.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 4.7 2.4 0.3 0.0 9.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.4 6.1 3.9 0.6 0.0 13.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.7 7.6 5.1 0.8 0.0 17.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.4 8.4 5.3 1.0 0.0 22.0 10th
11th 0.3 1.6 4.1 6.6 6.7 3.4 0.7 0.0 23.4 11th
Total 0.3 1.6 4.3 8.4 12.6 15.8 16.1 14.2 11.1 7.4 4.4 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 75.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 21.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 9.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 10.6% 10.6% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.4% 7.3% 7.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-8 1.0% 4.3% 4.3% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
11-9 2.3% 1.1% 1.1% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
10-10 4.4% 0.9% 0.9% 14.7 0.0 0.0 4.3
9-11 7.4% 0.6% 0.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 7.4
8-12 11.1% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 11.1
7-13 14.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.2
6-14 16.1% 16.1
5-15 15.8% 15.8
4-16 12.6% 12.6
3-17 8.4% 8.4
2-18 4.3% 4.3
1-19 1.6% 1.6
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%