Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.9 #232
Expected Predictive Rating -2.9 #221
Pace 82.2 #8
Improvement +4.1 #23

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #201 C+ D B+ C+ C
Defense #256 D C B- C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #154 1.18 #143 +1.0 #136
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #169 0.73 #217 -0.1 #180
Three Pointers 40% #205 1.07 #111 +0.5 #159
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #142 +1.4 #142
Freethrows 18.7 #115 71% #244 13.2 #147
Second Chance 26.8% #286 0.95 #287 0.26 #304
Turnovers 14.4% #54
Total Offense -1.3 #201

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #290 1.24 #278 +0.9 #142
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #312 0.71 #118 +2.0 #47
Three Pointers 50% #20 1.11 #298 -6.6 #353
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #295 -3.6 #296
Freethrows 17.2 #180 75% #295 13.0 #150
Second Chance 29.7% #138 1.12 #272 0.33 #210
Turnovers 18.0% #97
Total Defense -2.6 #256

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.0% #192 0.6% #214
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.7% #142 6.5% #297
Possession Length 14.6 #9 16.9 #130
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #22 0.18 #204
Improvement +3.1 #25 +1.0 #117

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 1.9% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.8 15.4
.500 or above 10.3% 15.2% 3.8%
.500 or above in Conference 39.6% 50.6% 24.9%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.8% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 7.9% 4.4% 12.6%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round1.3% 1.8% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Northridge (Home) - 57.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 34 - 85 - 14
Quad 48 - 512 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 95 @Wyoming L 82 - 92 12%  -3  0 - 1 -1 -0 C- F D- +1 C+ A F
 Mon, Nov 10 84 @California L 65 - 93 10%  -16  0 - 2 -18 -9 D+ F D+ -6 B+ C- F
 Sat, Nov 15 144 Pacific L 73 - 85 43%  -14  0 - 3 -14 -9 F F A+ -4 F A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 238 @Portland L 85 - 103 40%  -13  0 - 4 -19 +3 A+ F C -20 F F F
 Sat, Nov 22 135 St. Thomas W 88 - 80 30%  -1  1 - 4 +10 +7 C+ F A+ +2 A+ D- F
 Sun, Nov 23 161 Northern Colorado L 93 - 97 36%  -4  1 - 5 -4 +6 C+ F A+ -10 C+ D- F
 Sat, Nov 29 274 Pepperdine W 83 - 69 71%  +5  2 - 5 +4 +7 C B+ A+ -3 B+ B- D+
 Thu, Dec 4 253 Cal Poly L 91 - 94 67%  -5  2 - 6 0 - 1 -11 -2 B- C F -9 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 98 @Hawaii L 59 - 69 13%  -9  2 - 7 0 - 2 -2 -8 D- F A- +7 B A- B
 Sat, Dec 13 264 @Denver W 105 - 86 46%  +19  3 - 7 +16 +16 A+ C C- -1 A F C+
 Sun, Dec 21 54 @Oklahoma St. L 89 - 94 7%  -10  3 - 8 +8 +11 A+ A+ C- -2 F A- A+
 Sun, Dec 28 28 @SMU L 63 - 110 3%  -25  3 - 9 -30 -9 F C- F -17 F D+ C-
 Thu, Jan 1 181 UC Santa Barbara W 95 - 84 52%  +13  4 - 9 1 - 2 +7 +9 B C A -4 F C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 121 UC Irvine L 64 - 86 38%  -9  4 - 10 1 - 3 -23 -5 D- C- A- -18 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 8 108 @UC San Diego W 88 - 71 15%  +4  5 - 10 2 - 3 +24 +19 A+ C- A+ +6 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 211 Cal St. Northridge W 89 - 87 57% 
 Thu, Jan 15 171 @UC Davis L 81 - 87 30% 
 Sat, Jan 17 295 @UC Riverside W 81 - 80 52% 
 Thu, Jan 22 262 Long Beach St. W 83 - 78 68% 
 Sat, Jan 24 253 @Cal Poly L 89 - 91 45% 
 Sat, Jan 31 181 @UC Santa Barbara L 78 - 83 31% 
 Thu, Feb 5 295 UC Riverside W 84 - 77 73% 
 Sat, Feb 7 294 Cal St. Bakersfield W 85 - 78 73% 
 Thu, Feb 12 262 @Long Beach St. L 80 - 81 46% 
 Sat, Feb 14 121 @UC Irvine L 73 - 82 20% 
 Thu, Feb 19 171 UC Davis W 84 - 83 51% 
 Sat, Feb 21 294 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 82 - 81 52% 
 Sat, Feb 28 98 Hawaii L 75 - 81 28% 
 Thu, Mar 5 108 UC San Diego L 79 - 84 32% 
 Sat, Mar 7 211 @Cal St. Northridge L 86 - 90 35% 
Totals 12 - 18 9 - 11 -4 -1 C+ D B+ -3 D C B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 2.4 1.8 0.6 0.1 5.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.2 3.6 0.9 0.1 12.5 4th
5th 0.2 3.0 6.8 4.3 0.8 0.0 15.2 5th
6th 0.1 2.4 7.6 4.8 1.0 0.0 15.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 7.2 5.5 1.0 0.0 15.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 5.0 5.5 1.0 0.0 12.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.4 4.6 1.1 0.0 9.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.2 1.0 0.1 6.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.3 0.6 0.0 3.6 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.6 4.0 8.2 12.5 16.4 17.3 15.2 11.4 7.2 3.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 68.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 42.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 12.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.1% 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.5% 20.8% 20.8% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-6 1.6% 9.8% 9.8% 13.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.4
13-7 3.6% 7.0% 7.0% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.4
12-8 7.2% 3.8% 3.8% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 6.9
11-9 11.4% 2.2% 2.2% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 11.2
10-10 15.2% 1.3% 1.3% 15.8 0.0 0.2 15.0
9-11 17.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 17.2
8-12 16.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 16.4
7-13 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.5
6-14 8.2% 8.2
5-15 4.0% 4.0
4-16 1.6% 1.6
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 14.9 98.6 0.0%