Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.5 #224
Expected Predictive Rating -2.8 #209
Pace 80.5 #7
Improvement +2.4 #80

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #246 C D C+ C+ C
Defense #197 D+ C B- C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #181 1.18 #148 +0.4 #162
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #177 0.70 #278 -0.6 #209
Three Pointers 41% #188 1.03 #165 +0.3 #168
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #175 +0.1 #173
Freethrows 0.33 #96 70% #257 0.23 #138
Second Chance 25.6% #315 0.96 #269 0.25 #319
Turnovers 15.7% #121
Total Offense -2.7 #246

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #283 1.26 #309 +0.0 #174
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #314 0.77 #203 +1.7 #62
Three Pointers 49% #15 1.06 #239 -5.0 #347
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #287 -3.3 #288
Freethrows 0.30 #196 73% #236 0.22 #202
Second Chance 31.0% #192 1.04 #209 0.32 #209
Turnovers 18.9% #57
Total Defense -0.8 #197

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.0% #193 0.7% #236
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.2% #169 5.7% #292
Possession Length 14.8 #12 17.0 #149
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #13 0.20 #269
Improvement -1.0 #237 +3.4 #31

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 1.6% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 15.0 15.5
.500 or above 6.5% 8.2% 1.3%
.500 or above in Conference 48.9% 57.2% 24.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.3% 2.4%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round1.3% 1.6% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Riverside (Home) - 74.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 34 - 85 - 14
Quad 48 - 413 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 111 @Wyoming L 82 - 92 17% -3  0 - 1 -3 -2 D+ D F+ -0 C B F+
 Mon, Nov 10 64 @California L 65 - 93 9% -16  0 - 2 -16 -8 C- D- D+ -6 B C D-
 Sat, Nov 15 125 Pacific L 73 - 85 39% -14  0 - 3 -13 -8 F D- A+ -3 F A+ A
 Fri, Nov 21 232 @Portland L 85 - 103 40% -13  0 - 4 -19 +3 A F C -20 F F D
 Sat, Nov 22 133 St. Thomas W 88 - 80 31% -1  1 - 4 +10 +8 C+ F+ A+ +1 A+ D D-
 Sun, Nov 23 190 Northern Colorado L 93 - 97 45% -4  1 - 5 -6 +5 C D- A+ -11 C D- F
 Sat, Nov 29 283 Pepperdine W 83 - 69 73% +5  2 - 5 +4 +7 C+ B A- -3 B B- C-
 Thu, Dec 4 263 Cal Poly L 91 - 94 70% -5  2 - 6 0 - 1 -12 -4 C C- F+ -7 F A+ A
 Sat, Dec 6 102 @Hawaii L 59 - 69 15% -9  2 - 7 0 - 2 -2 -9 D- F A- +7 B B- B-
 Sat, Dec 13 288 @Denver W 105 - 86 53% +19  3 - 7 +15 +15 A+ C+ D+ -2 B F C+
 Sun, Dec 21 56 @Oklahoma St. L 89 - 94 8% -10  3 - 8 +8 +10 A+ A- C+ -2 F+ B+ A+
 Sun, Dec 28 39 @SMU L 63 - 110 4% -25  3 - 9 -31 -9 F C- F -17 F D+ C-
 Thu, Jan 1 130 UC Santa Barbara W 95 - 84 41% +13  4 - 9 1 - 2 +10 +12 B C A -3 F C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 118 UC Irvine L 64 - 86 37% -9  4 - 10 1 - 3 -22 -3 D C B -19 F F A-
 Thu, Jan 8 138 @UC San Diego W 88 - 71 23% +4  5 - 10 2 - 3 +21 +19 A+ C A+ +2 A- F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 187 Cal St. Northridge W 86 - 79 55% -1  6 - 10 3 - 3 +2 +2 B D B- -1 C B- C
 Thu, Jan 15 189 @UC Davis L 69 - 74 33% -9  6 - 11 3 - 4 -4 -8 F C- D+ +4 B- F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 291 @UC Riverside L 72 - 81 54% -9  6 - 12 3 - 5 -14 -9 F D D -3 F A- B
 Thu, Jan 22 255 Long Beach St. W 71 - 61 68% +11  7 - 12 4 - 5 +2 -4 B+ F D +6 C+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 263 @Cal Poly W 93 - 78 48% +8  8 - 12 5 - 5 +12 +13 A F+ C+ -1 D+ F+ A
 Sat, Jan 31 130 @UC Santa Barbara L 69 - 83 21% -13  8 - 13 5 - 6 -9 -7 D D D- -2 D+ B B+
 Thu, Feb 5 291 UC Riverside W 81 - 74 75%
 Sat, Feb 7 319 Cal St. Bakersfield W 85 - 76 80%
 Thu, Feb 12 255 @Long Beach St. L 78 - 79 46%
 Sat, Feb 14 118 @UC Irvine L 70 - 80 19%
 Thu, Feb 19 189 UC Davis W 82 - 80 55%
 Sat, Feb 21 319 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 82 - 79 62%
 Sat, Feb 28 102 Hawaii L 75 - 80 32%
 Thu, Mar 5 138 UC San Diego L 76 - 78 43%
 Sat, Mar 7 187 @Cal St. Northridge L 83 - 88 33%
Totals 12 - 18 9 - 11 -3 -3 C D C+ -1 D+ C B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 1.9 1.0 0.1 3.8 3rd
4th 0.1 2.2 7.2 4.1 0.4 13.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.8 8.5 6.2 0.6 17.2 5th
6th 0.9 9.0 10.3 1.8 0.0 22.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 7.8 12.3 3.1 0.1 24.2 7th
8th 0.4 3.6 6.7 1.7 0.0 12.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 2.6 0.9 0.0 4.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.2 2.3 7.4 16.4 24.8 24.1 16.1 6.7 1.8 0.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 1.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.2% 22.7% 22.7% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-7 1.8% 7.0% 7.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.7
12-8 6.7% 4.9% 4.9% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 6.4
11-9 16.1% 2.6% 2.6% 15.1 0.0 0.4 0.0 15.7
10-10 24.1% 1.1% 1.1% 15.6 0.1 0.2 23.9
9-11 24.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 24.6
8-12 16.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 16.3
7-13 7.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.4
6-14 2.3% 2.3
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 15.0 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.2%