Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.4#278
Expected Predictive Rating-7.1#287
Pace63.4#318
Improvement+1.2#107

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#287
First Shot-3.7#285
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#211
Layup/Dunks+0.8#152
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#191
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.5#349
Freethrows+2.5#46
Improvement+1.2#99

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#239
First Shot-3.0#278
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#107
Layups/Dunks+1.0#130
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#142
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#316
Freethrows-1.1#267
Improvement+0.1#174
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 0.8% 1.8% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 6.3% 11.5% 3.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 41.9% 28.6% 49.5%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Northridge (Home) - 36.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 50 - 8
Quad 33 - 73 - 16
Quad 46 - 69 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 107   @ Grand Canyon L 79-89 10%     0 - 1 -2.6 +6.5 -8.5
  Nov 08, 2024 94   @ Stanford L 53-80 9%     0 - 2 -18.6 -11.4 -9.9
  Nov 13, 2024 76   @ Colorado L 53-83 7%     0 - 3 -19.5 -10.9 -10.0
  Nov 15, 2024 69   @ Oregon St. L 51-70 6%     0 - 4 -8.1 -9.0 -1.6
  Nov 18, 2024 250   Idaho St. W 62-61 56%     1 - 4 -6.9 -4.6 -2.2
  Nov 22, 2024 20   @ UCLA L 47-80 2%     1 - 5 -15.1 -11.0 -6.1
  Nov 26, 2024 204   @ Pepperdine W 72-63 24%     2 - 5 +10.1 +7.0 +3.9
  Nov 30, 2024 301   @ Pacific L 55-64 44%     2 - 6 -13.7 -14.5 -0.1
  Dec 05, 2024 258   Long Beach St. L 56-73 57%     2 - 7 0 - 1 -25.3 -18.4 -7.8
  Dec 07, 2024 177   @ UC Riverside L 68-75 21%     2 - 8 0 - 2 -4.9 -2.7 -2.3
  Dec 15, 2024 319   Denver W 74-59 70%     3 - 8 +3.1 +7.4 -1.5
  Dec 22, 2024 159   Wyoming L 69-73 37%     3 - 9 -7.0 +6.8 -14.5
  Jan 02, 2025 153   Cal St. Northridge L 70-74 37%    
  Jan 04, 2025 90   UC San Diego L 62-72 18%    
  Jan 09, 2025 223   @ UC Davis L 64-70 29%    
  Jan 11, 2025 166   Hawaii L 64-67 39%    
  Jan 16, 2025 77   @ UC Irvine L 58-75 6%    
  Jan 18, 2025 258   @ Long Beach St. L 64-68 36%    
  Jan 23, 2025 260   Cal St. Bakersfield W 66-64 57%    
  Jan 25, 2025 146   UC Santa Barbara L 65-69 36%    
  Feb 02, 2025 166   @ Hawaii L 61-70 21%    
  Feb 06, 2025 153   @ Cal St. Northridge L 67-77 19%    
  Feb 08, 2025 223   UC Davis W 67-66 50%    
  Feb 13, 2025 271   Cal Poly W 78-75 59%    
  Feb 15, 2025 260   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 63-67 35%    
  Feb 20, 2025 146   @ UC Santa Barbara L 62-72 19%    
  Feb 27, 2025 77   UC Irvine L 61-72 16%    
  Mar 01, 2025 90   @ UC San Diego L 59-75 8%    
  Mar 06, 2025 271   @ Cal Poly L 75-78 38%    
  Mar 08, 2025 177   UC Riverside L 66-69 41%    
Projected Record 9 - 21 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 2.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.3 3.1 0.5 0.0 11.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.5 7.2 4.7 0.8 0.0 16.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.8 8.5 5.2 1.0 0.0 22.8 10th
11th 0.4 2.3 5.6 8.8 8.0 3.9 0.8 0.0 29.9 11th
Total 0.4 2.3 5.9 10.7 14.4 16.1 15.6 12.9 9.4 6.0 3.5 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0%
15-5 33.3% 0.0    0.0
14-6 7.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 5.0% 5.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.3% 6.8% 6.8% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-8 0.8% 3.9% 3.9% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
11-9 1.7% 2.3% 2.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
10-10 3.5% 0.6% 0.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 3.5
9-11 6.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.0
8-12 9.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.3
7-13 12.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.8
6-14 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.6
5-15 16.1% 16.1
4-16 14.4% 14.4
3-17 10.7% 10.7
2-18 5.9% 5.9
1-19 2.3% 2.3
0-20 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%