Cal St. Northridge
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.9 #187
Expected Predictive Rating -0.6 #175
Pace 81.3 #6
Improvement +6.6 #10

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #201 C C C- C- B
Defense #188 C C C- C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #11 1.13 #207 +4.5 #43
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #245 0.71 #257 -1.7 #268
Three Pointers 35% #302 1.02 #184 -2.7 #275
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #176 +0.1 #174
Freethrows 0.31 #149 67% #339 0.21 #222
Second Chance 33.4% #101 0.92 #312 0.31 #192
Turnovers 17.6% #240
Total Offense -1.3 #201

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #309 1.16 #180 +2.8 #87
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #222 0.76 #198 +0.5 #147
Three Pointers 47% #33 1.00 #155 -2.9 #304
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #162 +0.5 #162
Freethrows 0.31 #219 75% #330 0.24 #255
Second Chance 26.7% #54 1.21 #354 0.32 #214
Turnovers 15.4% #250
Total Defense -0.6 #188

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.1% #54 -0.3% #139
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.9% #210 -0.6% #172
Possession Length 14.9 #14 16.8 #113
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #118 0.20 #265
Improvement +1.4 #102 +5.1 #6

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 4.9% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.5
.500 or above 70.5% 83.0% 56.0%
.500 or above in Conference 79.5% 90.7% 66.6%
Conference Champion 1.0% 1.6% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round3.9% 4.9% 2.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal Poly (Away) - 53.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 51 - 5
Quad 36 - 77 - 12
Quad 410 - 317 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 110 @Northern Iowa L 57 - 86 21% -17  0 - 1 -22 -9 F+ D- F -12 D- D C-
 Sun, Nov 9 282 @North Dakota W 93 - 85 58% +4  1 - 1 +4 +9 B- B- C- -6 D+ D F
 Tue, Nov 11 139 @North Dakota St. L 68 - 90 28% -5  1 - 2 -18 -12 F B+ F -2 A+ F F+
 Sun, Nov 16 140 Troy W 94 - 85 49% +4  2 - 2 +7 +16 B+ A+ D+ -9 D- A+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 185 Idaho L 64 - 78 49% -4  2 - 3 -16 -13 F C+ C -2 A+ F C
 Fri, Nov 28 227 Idaho St. L 50 - 82 57% -18  2 - 4 -36 -30 F D F -3 C F B-
 Thu, Dec 4 319 Cal St. Bakersfield W 87 - 66 84% +7  3 - 4 1 - 0 +8 +3 B- B- C +4 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 118 @UC Irvine L 71 - 85 22% +0  3 - 5 1 - 1 -8 +6 C+ D A+ -14 C F D
 Wed, Dec 10 146 Fresno St. W 89 - 87 51% +4  4 - 5 -0 +17 A+ F+ B+ -17 F B+ D
 Sat, Dec 13 286 @Delaware W 88 - 66 59% +19  5 - 5 +18 +17 A+ C C+ +1 C+ C+ A-
 Mon, Dec 22 274 Sacramento St. W 100 - 88 76% +4  6 - 5 +3 +8 A- F A- -7 C A- F
 Sat, Dec 27 86 @Stanford L 80 - 88 14% -1  6 - 6 +1 +6 B+ F C- -4 F A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 1 189 @UC Davis L 80 - 89 39% -6  6 - 7 1 - 2 -8 +1 C- D+ D -8 F A- B-
 Sat, Jan 3 130 UC Santa Barbara W 74 - 65 47% +6  7 - 7 2 - 2 +8 -5 D+ B- F+ +12 A+ A- C+
 Thu, Jan 8 263 Cal Poly W 95 - 90 75% -3  8 - 7 3 - 2 -4 +4 A C+ C- -8 C C- F+
 Sat, Jan 10 224 @Cal St. Fullerton L 79 - 86 45% +1  8 - 8 3 - 3 -7 -1 C- D B- -6 D C D+
 Thu, Jan 15 138 @UC San Diego W 84 - 79 27% +2  9 - 8 4 - 3 +9 +12 C A- A+ -3 A D- F
 Sat, Jan 17 255 Long Beach St. L 80 - 87 73% -0  9 - 9 4 - 4 -15 -6 F A- D -8 D- B C
 Sat, Jan 24 102 @Hawaii L 68 - 89 18% -9  9 - 10 4 - 5 -13 -4 C D- C- -7 F+ A B
 Thu, Jan 29 189 UC Davis W 94 - 78 62% +4  10 - 10 5 - 5 +11 +7 A F+ B- +2 B C+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 138 UC San Diego W 81 - 64 49% +7  11 - 10 6 - 5 +15 +3 B B F +11 A+ C+ C
 Thu, Feb 5 263 @Cal Poly W 91 - 90 54%
 Sat, Feb 7 291 UC Riverside W 83 - 74 80%
 Sat, Feb 14 102 Hawaii L 77 - 81 37%
 Thu, Feb 19 130 @UC Santa Barbara L 75 - 82 27%
 Sat, Feb 21 255 @Long Beach St. W 80 - 79 52%
 Thu, Feb 26 118 UC Irvine L 75 - 77 43%
 Sat, Feb 28 291 @UC Riverside W 80 - 77 59%
 Thu, Mar 5 319 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 84 - 79 67%
 Sat, Mar 7 224 Cal St. Fullerton W 88 - 83 67%
Totals 16 - 14 11 - 9 -2 -1 C C C- -1 C C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 1.0 1st
2nd 0.3 1.8 1.9 0.2 4.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 5.6 6.1 1.6 0.1 14.7 3rd
4th 0.1 2.7 11.7 11.9 2.6 0.1 29.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 9.3 9.9 1.8 0.0 22.6 5th
6th 0.6 5.8 7.2 1.4 0.0 15.0 6th
7th 0.1 2.4 5.0 1.2 0.1 8.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.1 0.7 0.0 3.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.2 1.2 5.7 13.3 20.4 24.3 19.6 10.6 4.1 0.5 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 58.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 14.6% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.5% 17.5% 17.5% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
14-6 4.1% 12.8% 12.8% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.6
13-7 10.6% 9.3% 9.3% 14.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 9.6
12-8 19.6% 5.5% 5.5% 14.3 0.1 0.6 0.4 18.5
11-9 24.3% 3.0% 3.0% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 23.6
10-10 20.4% 1.7% 1.7% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 20.0
9-11 13.3% 0.7% 0.7% 15.3 0.1 0.0 13.2
8-12 5.7% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 5.7
7-13 1.2% 1.2
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 14.3 96.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 0.2%