Cal St. Northridge
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.1 159
Results Rating +1.9 133
Pace 80.6 4
Improvement +8.5 3

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 172 C C C D+ B
Defense C 159 C C C- C- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% 8 C- 56% 240 +4.4 39
2 Pt. Jumpers 42% 122 D+ 35% 285 -1.7 268
Three Pointers 34% 317 B- 36% 110 -2.7 271
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.0 56 C- -0.9 205
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 173
Second Chance C+ 32.3% 127 C- 0.99 247 C 0.32 157
Turnovers C 17.1% 198
Freethrows C 0.30 191 F 65% 359 D+ 0.20 268
Total Offense C -0.3 172

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B 57% 48 C- 11.9% 242
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 31% 99 D+ 6.6% 278
Three Pointers B 91% 38 C- 1.2% 275
Total B 63% 48 D- 7.3% 334

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 326 C+ 57% 154 -3.9 57
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 249 C 38% 197 -0.8 122
Three Pointers 49% 12 C 34% 172 +4.0 337
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.1 139 C -0.5 165
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 156
Second Chance B- 27.4% 72 D- 1.16 339 C 0.32 202
Turnovers C- 15.9% 235
Freethrows C 0.30 192 D 75% 318 C- 0.23 220
Total Defense C +0.2 159

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 55% 315 D+ 9.0% 248
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 160 D+ 3.5% 263
Three Pointers B- 81% 101 C+ 1.2% 110
Total D+ 60% 285 D+ 4.1% 300

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.1 19 16.8 94
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 149 0.20 274
Improvement +2.8 #65 +5.7 #9

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 188 159 135
Results Rating Rank 170 138 112
Conference Record 12 - 8 14 - 6 15 - 5
Conference Finish 4 2 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15% 19% 11%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.0
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 45% 73% 16%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round15% 19% 11%
Second Round0% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: UC Irvine (Home) - 50.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 38 - 49 - 9
Quad 410 - 319 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 94 @Northern Iowa L 57 - 86 20% -17  7% 0 - 1 F -20 F -11 F+ D- F D- -8 D- D+ C-
 Sun, Nov 9 294 @North Dakota W 93 - 85 68% +4  66% 1 - 1 C+ +3 B- +5 B C+ D+ C- -3 D D- F
 Tue, Nov 11 129 @North Dakota St. L 68 - 90 31% -5  20% 1 - 2 F+ -17 F -15 F B+ F C+ +1 A+ F F+
 Sun, Nov 16 152 Troy W 94 - 85 60% +4  74% 2 - 2 B- +6 A +13 B+ A+ D D- -7 F+ A+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 187 Idaho L 64 - 78 56% -4  30% 2 - 3 F+ -16 F -15 F C C C+ +0 A F D+
 Fri, Nov 28 252 Idaho St. L 50 - 82 68% -18  10% 2 - 4 F -37 F -34 F D F C -0 C- F C+
 Thu, Dec 4 332 Cal St. Bakersfield W 87 - 66 90% +7  73% 3 - 4 1 - 0 B- +7 C +0 B- B C B+ +6 A+ F A
 Sat, Dec 6 120 @UC Irvine L 71 - 85 28% +0  56% 3 - 5 1 - 1 D -8 B- +4 C+ F+ A+ F -12 C F D-
 Wed, Dec 10 132 Fresno St. W 89 - 87 54% +4  72% 4 - 5 C +1 A +13 A+ F B F -12 F A- D
 Sat, Dec 13 265 @Delaware W 88 - 66 61% +19  98% 5 - 5 A +19 A +14 A+ D+ C+ B+ +6 B B- A-
 Mon, Dec 22 276 Sacramento St. W 100 - 88 81% +4  77% 6 - 5 C+ +3 B- +4 A- F B+ C- -3 C+ A- F
 Sat, Dec 27 77 @Stanford L 80 - 88 16% -1  45% 6 - 6 C+ +3 B- +5 A- F C- C- -2 F A+ B
 Thu, Jan 1 177 @UC Davis L 80 - 89 42% -6  21% 6 - 7 1 - 2 D+ -7 C- -1 C- D+ D D -6 F A- B-
 Sat, Jan 3 141 UC Santa Barbara W 74 - 65 57% +6  94% 7 - 7 2 - 2 B- +7 F+ -9 D B- F A+ +15 A+ A B-
 Thu, Jan 8 231 Cal Poly W 95 - 90 74% -3  18% 8 - 7 3 - 2 C- -2 C+ +2 A B- C- D -5 C+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 10 208 @Cal St. Fullerton L 79 - 86 48% +1  65% 8 - 8 3 - 3 D+ -7 D -4 D+ D+ C C -1 D C- D+
 Thu, Jan 15 134 @UC San Diego W 84 - 79 32% +2  62% 9 - 8 4 - 3 B +10 A- +10 C A A+ C -1 A F+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 263 Long Beach St. L 80 - 87 79% -0  38% 9 - 9 4 - 4 F+ -16 F+ -8 F A- D+ D- -7 F+ B D+
 Sat, Jan 24 119 @Hawaii L 68 - 89 28% -9  1% 9 - 10 4 - 5 F+ -15 D- -7 C D D D -6 F A B+
 Thu, Jan 29 177 UC Davis W 94 - 78 65% +4  53% 10 - 10 5 - 5 B+ +12 B- +5 A F+ B+ B +5 B C+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 134 UC San Diego W 81 - 64 55% +7  80% 11 - 10 6 - 5 A- +16 C +1 B A- F A+ +13 A+ C+ D+
 Thu, Feb 5 231 @Cal Poly W 97 - 96 53% +5  80% 12 - 10 7 - 5 C +0 B+ +8 A- B+ C F+ -8 F C- D+
 Sat, Feb 7 283 UC Riverside W 88 - 74 82% +3  66% 13 - 10 8 - 5 C+ +4 B +6 A B+ C C- -2 B- D- D+
 Sat, Feb 14 119 Hawaii W 84 - 60 50% +14  95% 14 - 10 9 - 5 A+ +24 A- +11 A+ C C- A+ +13 A- A+ A+
 Thu, Feb 19 141 @UC Santa Barbara W 85 - 83 OT 34% -2  29% 15 - 10 10 - 5 B- +6 D -5 F B A+ A +11 A+ B+ B-
 Sat, Feb 21 263 @Long Beach St. W 78 - 76 60% +8  91% 16 - 10 11 - 5 C -1 C +0 F A+ A C -1 D D C
 Thu, Feb 26 120 UC Irvine W 77 - 76 51%
 Sat, Feb 28 283 @UC Riverside W 81 - 77 64%
 Thu, Mar 5 332 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 86 - 78 78%
 Sat, Mar 7 208 Cal St. Fullerton W 89 - 83 70%
Totals 19 - 11 14 - 6 +0 C +0 C- C- B C +0 B- F D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C- D+ B- C- 48% 42% 34% B C C+ C- C C C F D+ C C+ C C C 32% 18% 49% C+ C B- D- C C- C D C-
1.08 56% 35% 36% -1 +1 1.02 32% 1.0 .32 17% .30 65% .20 1.08 57% 38% 34% 0 0 1.01 27% 1.2 .32 16% .30 75% .23
Nov
6		 Northern Iowa F F C+ D+ F 36% 21% 43% C- F+ B- F D- F A+ B- A+ D- D- A+ D- D 42% 8% 49% D- D- B F D+ C- A F B+
0.79 29% 40% 30% -13 0 0.77 29% 0.5 .13 28% .44 74% .33 1.20 68% 20% 38% +6 +2 1.17 18% 1.5 .27 14% .16 80% .13
Nov
9		 North Dakota B- A- F A+ B+ 47% 20% 33% D+ B A- D- C+ D+ A+ F B+ C- F B+ A+ D- 34% 17% 48% B D B+ F D- F C- B+ C+
1.23 71% 20% 47% +9 +1 1.22 42% 1.0 .42 21% .52 61% .32 1.12 80% 30% 25% 0 0 1.02 23% 1.6 .36 11% .34 65% .22
Nov
11		 North Dakota St. F D- F F F 50% 23% 27% B- F C+ A+ B+ F C D- C- C+ B- D- A+ A+ 30% 18% 52% D+ A+ F F F F+ F D- F
0.84 54% 23% 20% -11 0 0.80 31% 1.2 .36 25% .26 69% .18 1.12 56% 45% 22% -9 0 0.84 39% 1.4 .54 12% .37 77% .28
Nov
16		 Troy A B- A+ B B 56% 9% 35% A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ D C- D+ C- D- F+ F C- F 37% 9% 54% C F+ A+ A+ A+ F D F F
1.29 60% 60% 37% +5 +3 1.17 45% 1.3 .61 19% .27 69% .19 1.16 65% 60% 34% +5 +1 1.15 21% 0.7 .15 11% .34 86% .29
Nov
26		 Idaho F A F F F 36% 24% 40% C+ F C C+ C C B+ F+ C+ C+ C A A+ A+ 26% 7% 67% D+ A C- F F D+ F F F
0.87 70% 23% 14% -11 -1 0.78 26% 1.1 .28 15% .40 68% .27 1.06 57% 25% 25% -10 +1 0.83 29% 1.6 .47 15% .43 81% .35
Nov
28		 Idaho St. F F F F F 21% 26% 53% F F C F D F C- B- C C A F C+ D 25% 22% 53% A C- A F F C+ C D- C-
0.66 25% 13% 20% -25 -2 0.49 30% 0.9 .26 20% .31 79% .25 1.09 46% 73% 33% +4 -1 1.08 25% 1.9 .46 19% .31 79% .24
Dec
4		 Cal St. Bakersfield C C A+ C- C 57% 8% 35% A+ B- B- B B C B F D- B+ A+ A A+ A+ 31% 31% 38% C A+ F+ F F A F D F
1.17 59% 75% 33% +3 +3 1.14 41% 1.1 .46 18% .41 52% .21 0.89 40% 27% 22% -16 -2 0.67 38% 1.2 .45 24% .43 79% .34
Dec
6		 UC Irvine B- D- F A+ C 48% 19% 33% B+ C+ F D F+ A+ B F C F A- D D C+ 42% 27% 31% C- C F F F D- D- C+ D
1.02 43% 27% 42% -5 +1 0.93 24% 0.8 .19 10% .29 61% .18 1.22 45% 43% 38% -2 -1 0.96 41% 1.9 .76 14% .35 67% .23
Dec
10		 Fresno St. A B- A+ A+ A+ 48% 11% 41% A A+ C F F B C- A+ B F D B F F 37% 11% 52% D F A- A- A- D B- F C-
1.25 65% 67% 45% +14 +2 1.33 29% 0.6 .18 17% .24 93% .22 1.22 65% 33% 46% +12 +1 1.28 23% 0.9 .20 15% .27 88% .23
Dec
13		 Delaware A D- A+ A+ A+ 43% 19% 38% B+ A+ A- F D+ C+ D C- D B+ A+ F C- B 29% 13% 58% D+ B F A+ B- A- F C- F
1.30 52% 70% 50% +13 +1 1.28 38% 0.7 .26 13% .24 79% .19 0.98 43% 50% 36% -1 0 1.00 26% 0.6 .15 22% .34 78% .27
Dec
22		 Sacramento St. B- B- A+ B A- 50% 9% 41% B A- F F F B+ A+ B A+ C- B+ D- B C 32% 32% 35% B C+ A+ F A- F C- F F+
1.23 62% 80% 38% +8 +2 1.22 25% 0.7 .17 13% .43 77% .33 1.08 48% 43% 30% -4 -2 0.91 15% 1.5 .23 10% .37 89% .33
Dec
27		 Stanford B- D+ F+ A+ A- 44% 21% 35% B A- F F F C- A+ B A+ C- D+ B- F F 39% 7% 54% C F A+ A+ A+ B F C+ F
1.06 52% 30% 47% +3 0 1.08 17% 0.8 .13 20% .50 80% .40 1.17 61% 33% 44% +9 +2 1.24 24% 0.5 .12 17% .61 71% .43
Jan
1		 UC Davis C- C F C- D 55% 7% 38% A C- C+ F D+ D A+ F B- D F+ C- F F 24% 29% 47% A+ F B+ A- A- B- B+ D+ B
1.05 58% 0% 33% -3 +3 1.02 33% 0.8 .26 21% .43 62% .26 1.16 69% 38% 50% +14 -2 1.25 22% 0.9 .19 20% .29 78% .23
Jan
3		 UC Santa Barbara F+ B- A+ F D- 52% 14% 33% A- D B C B- F A+ F A+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ 46% 5% 48% F A+ A B+ A B- D+ F D-
1.01 64% 67% 14% -3 +2 1.00 31% 1.1 .34 22% .65 62% .40 0.89 54% 0% 19% -15 +3 0.77 24% 0.9 .21 19% .34 85% .29
Jan
8		 Cal Poly C+ C B A+ A 53% 13% 34% B+ A A- D- B- C- A+ F B D C B+ D+ C- 23% 13% 64% A C+ A F C- F C C+ C+
1.17 61% 43% 50% +10 +2 1.26 41% 0.9 .38 17% .40 59% .24 1.11 57% 25% 36% 0 0 1.02 23% 1.4 .32 16% .31 76% .24
Jan
10		 Cal St. Fullerton D C F C+ D 47% 15% 38% B D+ D+ C- D+ C D- F F C C A+ F D+ 41% 15% 44% D- D B- F+ C- D+ F B F+
1.01 61% 22% 35% -1 +1 1.03 26% 1.0 .26 18% .25 38% .09 1.10 59% 25% 42% +4 +1 1.11 23% 1.1 .26 14% .42 68% .28
Jan
15		 UC San Diego A- D A- D- C- 48% 20% 31% B- C B+ A A A+ A+ D A+ C B+ D+ A+ A+ 38% 17% 45% B- A B+ F F+ F D+ D- D
1.16 50% 45% 29% -5 +1 0.94 36% 1.2 .44 10% .44 66% .29 1.09 52% 40% 26% -7 +1 0.88 21% 1.7 .36 8% .29 74% .21
Jan
17		 Long Beach St. F+ F D- F F 56% 11% 33% A F A- C+ A- D+ A+ D+ A D- F C C- F+ 26% 20% 54% D F+ A+ F B D+ F F F
1.01 47% 33% 22% -13 +2 0.81 37% 1.3 .46 19% .45 72% .33 1.10 79% 36% 34% +5 -1 1.11 18% 1.3 .24 16% .42 82% .35
Jan
24		 Hawaii D- F+ B C- C 45% 28% 28% D+ C A F D D C- F F D D+ F F F 30% 19% 51% A- F D A+ A B+ F C F
0.88 46% 44% 31% -5 0 0.91 35% 0.5 .19 18% .30 47% .14 1.15 63% 50% 41% +9 0 1.19 34% 0.6 .21 22% .48 72% .35
Jan
29		 UC Davis B- A+ F B+ A 48% 8% 43% B+ A D F F+ B+ C+ F F+ B B- A+ D- B 35% 25% 40% B- B B D C+ D+ D+ A+ B-
1.18 76% 20% 38% +10 +2 1.27 26% 0.8 .21 16% .34 52% .18 0.98 55% 21% 39% -2 -1 0.96 23% 1.1 .26 16% .37 64% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 UC San Diego C C B+ C B- 48% 17% 35% B B A C- A- F A+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ 43% 16% 41% C+ A+ D+ B+ C+ D+ C- A+ A-
1.08 56% 44% 33% 0 +1 1.04 40% 1.0 .40 21% .39 78% .30 0.85 42% 22% 30% -12 +1 0.80 29% 0.9 .25 15% .28 44% .12
Feb
5		 Cal Poly B+ D A+ A+ A- 49% 17% 33% B- A- D A+ B+ C F D+ F F+ F D- F 33% 0% 67% D+ F A+ F C- D+ A F B+
1.22 55% 55% 48% +8 +1 1.21 27% 1.6 .43 16% .15 70% .10 1.20 74% 38% +10 +2 1.26 16% 2.0 .32 19% .22 93% .20
Feb
7		 UC Riverside B C+ B- A+ A 62% 17% 21% A- A C- A+ B+ C C+ F F C- C D A- B 25% 13% 63% C B- F C D- D+ A F B-
1.21 61% 44% 55% +9 +2 1.25 29% 1.3 .39 15% .36 45% .16 1.02 57% 43% 29% -5 0 0.93 35% 0.9 .30 18% .22 92% .20
Feb
14		 Hawaii A- D+ C- A+ A+ 48% 21% 31% C+ A+ D A+ C C- B B- B A+ A D- A- A- 35% 14% 51% B- A- C+ A+ A+ A+ C- A B-
1.17 52% 36% 56% +7 +1 1.17 21% 1.3 .27 17% .35 71% .25 0.84 47% 43% 28% -8 +1 0.88 29% 0.7 .20 25% .37 65% .24
Feb
19		 UC Santa Barbara D D- F F F 48% 27% 24% C- F B C B A+ B F+ C A A+ A+ C+ A+ 20% 18% 63% A- A+ B+ B B+ B- F D F
1.02 53% 22% 19% -12 0 0.77 32% 1.1 .36 7% .39 67% .26 1.00 45% 20% 34% -5 -1 0.89 27% 0.9 .25 19% .48 81% .39
Feb
21		 Long Beach St. C F+ F F F 68% 16% 16% A F A- A+ A+ A F+ F F C B B- F D- 25% 29% 45% B- D C- F+ D C D- C D
1.09 50% 22% 22% -11 +3 0.86 37% 1.5 .55 13% .29 50% .14 1.06 54% 33% 43% +4 -2 1.06 27% 1.2 .33 18% .32 74% .24



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 2.7 22.9 19.3 44.9 1st
2nd 0.3 12.5 13.3 26.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 5.8 14.7 2.0 22.5 3rd
4th 0.2 4.6 4.8 4th
5th 0.8 0.4 1.2 5th
6th 0.5 0.0 0.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 1.6 11.1 29.9 38.2 19.3 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 19.3    14.3 4.9
14-6 60.0% 22.9    5.0 11.2 6.7
13-7 9.0% 2.7    0.2 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 44.9% 44.9 19.4 16.3 7.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 19.3% 22.7% 22.7% 13.4 0.2 2.4 1.6 0.1 14.9
14-6 38.2% 18.5% 18.5% 13.9 0.0 1.9 4.2 0.9 0.0 31.1
13-7 29.9% 11.1% 11.1% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.0 0.0 26.6
12-8 11.1% 5.0% 5.0% 14.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 10.6
11-9 1.6% 2.3% 2.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 15.4% 15.4% 0.0% 13.8 84.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.4% 100.0% 13.4 5.6 55.0 37.6 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 9.4%
Lose Out 0.8%