Cal St. Northridge
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.7 #211
Expected Predictive Rating -0.8 #177
Pace 79.7 #12
Improvement +5.3 #7

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #193 C C C- C B+
Defense #231 C C- D C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #16 1.12 #227 +3.9 #58
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #254 0.70 #242 -1.7 #261
Three Pointers 36% #283 1.03 #153 -2.0 #257
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #176 +0.2 #177
Freethrows 17.6 #173 70% #254 12.4 #195
Second Chance 33.1% #113 0.93 #305 0.31 #206
Turnovers 17.6% #243
Total Offense -0.8 #193

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #316 1.21 #243 +2.3 #101
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #235 0.81 #258 +0.3 #168
Three Pointers 48% #28 0.97 #142 -2.8 #294
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #185 -0.3 #185
Freethrows 16.4 #140 79% #354 12.9 #157
Second Chance 26.4% #50 1.31 #361 0.35 #244
Turnovers 14.7% #295
Total Defense -1.9 #231

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.2% #56 -0.2% #148
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.8% #199 0.8% #193
Possession Length 15.1 #28 17.1 #159
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #101 0.19 #232
Improvement +1.9 #67 +3.4 #23

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 3.8% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.5
.500 or above 51.0% 66.4% 39.4%
.500 or above in Conference 58.2% 73.4% 46.7%
Conference Champion 1.8% 3.2% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 1.0% 4.5%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round2.7% 3.8% 1.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Fullerton (Away) - 43.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 34 - 74 - 12
Quad 412 - 416 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 96 @Northern Iowa L 57 - 86 15%  -17  0 - 1 -21 -9 F D- F -11 D- F C-
 Sun, Nov 9 319 @North Dakota W 93 - 85 65%  +4  1 - 1 +1 +10 B+ C+ D -9 D- F F
 Tue, Nov 11 146 @North Dakota St. L 68 - 90 26%  -5  1 - 2 -18 -12 F A F -3 A F F
 Sun, Nov 16 137 Troy W 94 - 85 45%  +4  2 - 2 +7 +17 A A+ D -10 F A+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 195 Idaho L 64 - 78 48%  -4  2 - 3 -16 -14 F C C- -1 A+ F C
 Fri, Nov 28 187 Idaho St. L 50 - 82 47%  -18  2 - 4 -34 -30 F D+ F -2 B- F B-
 Thu, Dec 4 294 Cal St. Bakersfield W 87 - 66 77%  +7  3 - 4 1 - 0 +11 +5 C+ B- C +4 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 121 @UC Irvine L 71 - 85 22%  +0  3 - 5 1 - 1 -9 +5 C+ F A+ -14 C- F D
 Wed, Dec 10 157 Fresno St. W 89 - 87 52%  +4  4 - 5 -1 +15 A+ D- A- -16 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 277 @Delaware W 88 - 66 54%  +19  5 - 5 +18 +18 A+ C- B +1 B- B- A
 Mon, Dec 22 296 Sacramento St. W 100 - 88 78%  +4  6 - 5 +1 +8 A+ F A- -9 D A+ F
 Sat, Dec 27 79 @Stanford L 80 - 88 11%  -1  6 - 6 +3 +7 B+ F C -4 F A+ B
 Thu, Jan 1 171 @UC Davis L 80 - 89 32%  -6  6 - 7 1 - 2 -7 +0 D+ D+ F -7 F A B
 Sat, Jan 3 181 UC Santa Barbara W 74 - 65 57%  +6  7 - 7 2 - 2 +5 -7 D C+ F +11 A+ A B-
 Thu, Jan 8 253 Cal Poly W 95 - 90 71%  -3  8 - 7 3 - 2 -3 +6 A+ B- D -10 C- D+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 232 @Cal St. Fullerton L 87 - 89 43% 
 Thu, Jan 15 108 @UC San Diego L 75 - 85 17% 
 Sat, Jan 17 262 Long Beach St. W 82 - 76 72% 
 Sun, Jan 25 98 @Hawaii L 71 - 82 16% 
 Thu, Jan 29 171 UC Davis W 83 - 82 55% 
 Sat, Jan 31 108 UC San Diego L 78 - 82 35% 
 Thu, Feb 5 253 @Cal Poly L 88 - 89 49% 
 Sat, Feb 7 295 UC Riverside W 83 - 75 76% 
 Sat, Feb 14 98 Hawaii L 74 - 79 32% 
 Thu, Feb 19 181 @UC Santa Barbara L 78 - 82 35% 
 Sat, Feb 21 262 @Long Beach St. W 80 - 79 51% 
 Thu, Feb 26 121 UC Irvine L 76 - 78 43% 
 Sat, Feb 28 295 @UC Riverside W 80 - 78 57% 
 Thu, Mar 5 294 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 82 - 80 57% 
 Sat, Mar 7 232 Cal St. Fullerton W 90 - 86 65% 
Totals 15 - 15 10 - 10 -3 -1 C C C- -2 C C- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 4.2 4.0 1.4 0.2 11.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.9 7.0 6.2 1.6 0.2 18.2 4th
5th 0.2 3.3 8.2 5.7 1.4 0.1 18.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 7.5 4.9 1.1 0.0 15.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 5.0 4.8 0.8 0.0 11.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.1 3.8 0.8 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.2 1.5 2.8 0.7 0.0 5.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.6 0.6 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.4 3.8 7.7 11.7 16.9 17.0 15.2 12.3 7.5 4.0 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 89.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 77.6% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 39.2% 0.7    0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 13.2% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
13-7 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.4% 24.7% 24.7% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
15-5 1.7% 14.2% 14.2% 13.5 0.1 0.1 1.5
14-6 4.0% 12.0% 12.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 3.5
13-7 7.5% 7.3% 7.3% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.9
12-8 12.3% 4.3% 4.3% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 11.8
11-9 15.2% 2.5% 2.5% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 14.8
10-10 17.0% 1.4% 1.4% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 16.8
9-11 16.9% 0.9% 0.9% 15.6 0.1 0.1 16.7
8-12 11.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.6
7-13 7.7% 7.7
6-14 3.8% 3.8
5-15 1.4% 1.4
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 14.3 97.3 0.0%