Dartmouth
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.9 #230
Expected Predictive Rating -4.6 #238
Pace 75.2 #44
Improvement +4.1 #20

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #229 B- D+ F C+ C
Defense #221 C C F B D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #350 1.05 #296 -6.7 #351
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #248 0.73 #214 -1.4 #246
Three Pointers 53% #11 1.17 #20 +10.5 #4
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #115 +2.4 #114
Freethrows 18.1 #146 75% #117 13.5 #119
Second Chance 26.5% #294 1.03 #212 0.27 #280
Turnovers 20.2% #347
Total Offense -2.3 #229

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #13 1.19 #220 -5.7 #344
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #226 0.80 #244 +0.2 #171
Three Pointers 34% #333 0.86 #32 +6.0 #15
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #155 +0.5 #154
Freethrows 15.0 #66 72% #146 10.7 #301
Second Chance 31.5% #216 0.98 #103 0.31 #155
Turnovers 11.8% #363
Total Defense -1.6 #221

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.4% #221 1.8% #322
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.1% #111 -2.8% #130
Possession Length 16.6 #120 16.7 #86
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #232 0.18 #190
Improvement +1.9 #69 +2.3 #57

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.3% 6.7% 3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 16.9% 32.1% 10.8%
.500 or above in Conference 46.7% 68.0% 38.3%
Conference Champion 3.1% 6.5% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 15.2% 6.0% 18.8%
First Four0.9% 1.1% 0.9%
First Round3.9% 6.1% 3.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cornell (Away) - 28.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 43 - 9
Quad 48 - 611 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sun, Nov 9 140 Marist L 56 - 75 42%  -8  0 - 1 -21 -15 F C- F -5 D+ B- C
 Wed, Nov 12 317 @Bryant L 75 - 82 60%  -1  0 - 2 -13 -3 C F D- -10 F A- F
 Sun, Nov 16 224 Appalachian St. L 77 - 85 59%  -5  0 - 3 -14 +1 A+ D F -15 F C+ B
 Sat, Nov 29 259 @St. Peter's W 87 - 61 45%  +7  1 - 3 +23 +21 A+ B+ A+ +4 B+ D- D
 Wed, Dec 3 344 New Hampshire W 69 - 68 84%  -2  2 - 3 -14 -8 C F F -6 C+ B+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 95 @Wyoming L 80 - 93 12%  -1  2 - 4 -4 +8 A+ C+ F -12 F A+ F
 Tue, Dec 9 94 @Colorado St. L 55 - 76 12%  -9  2 - 5 -12 -11 D+ F F -3 F A+ C+
 Sat, Dec 13 258 Boston University W 77 - 64 68%  +9  3 - 5 +4 +1 C F D +4 A+ A- D
 Tue, Dec 16 326 @Holy Cross W 89 - 64 63%  +11  4 - 5 +18 +17 A+ C+ F +2 A- B F
 Fri, Dec 19 285 @Sacred Heart L 63 - 85 50%  -8  4 - 6 -26 -18 F D+ F -7 A- F F
 Mon, Dec 29 12 @Florida L 72 - 94 2%  -21  4 - 7 -1 +7 A+ C- B- -6 C F C-
 Mon, Jan 5 196 @Harvard W 76 - 68 33%  +3  5 - 7 1 - 0 +9 +11 A- A- C -2 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 168 @Cornell L 87 - 93 28% 
 Sat, Jan 17 216 Penn W 81 - 79 59% 
 Mon, Jan 19 242 Princeton W 75 - 71 63% 
 Sat, Jan 24 139 Columbia L 77 - 79 43% 
 Fri, Jan 30 80 @Yale L 73 - 87 9% 
 Sat, Jan 31 247 @Brown L 69 - 71 42% 
 Sat, Feb 7 196 Harvard W 74 - 73 56% 
 Fri, Feb 13 80 Yale L 76 - 84 23% 
 Sat, Feb 14 247 Brown W 72 - 68 64% 
 Sat, Feb 21 139 @Columbia L 74 - 82 23% 
 Fri, Feb 27 216 @Penn L 78 - 82 37% 
 Sat, Feb 28 242 @Princeton L 72 - 74 41% 
 Sat, Mar 7 168 Cornell W 90 - 89 50% 
Totals 10 - 15 6 - 8 -4 -2 B- D+ F -2 C C F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.1 1st
2nd 0.4 3.4 5.1 3.3 0.7 0.1 13.0 2nd
3rd 0.5 5.9 7.5 3.1 0.3 0.0 17.4 3rd
4th 0.3 6.0 8.6 2.4 0.1 17.4 4th
5th 0.2 4.0 9.3 2.4 0.1 16.0 5th
6th 0.1 2.4 8.0 3.0 0.1 13.6 6th
7th 0.2 2.0 5.9 3.2 0.2 11.5 7th
8th 0.4 1.9 3.5 2.0 0.2 8.0 8th
Total 0.4 2.1 5.6 10.6 15.7 18.9 17.5 13.5 8.7 4.7 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
12-2 86.1% 0.5    0.4 0.1
11-3 57.0% 1.0    0.5 0.4 0.0
10-4 23.9% 1.1    0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
9-5 4.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1
8-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 3.1% 3.1 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-2 0.5% 21.3% 21.3% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
11-3 1.7% 19.0% 19.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.4
10-4 4.7% 15.0% 15.0% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 4.0
9-5 8.7% 10.1% 10.1% 15.0 0.1 0.7 0.1 7.8
8-6 13.5% 8.1% 8.1% 15.6 0.4 0.7 12.4
7-7 17.5% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.0 0.8 16.6
6-8 18.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.3 18.7
5-9 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.7
4-10 10.6% 10.6
3-11 5.6% 5.6
2-12 2.1% 2.1
1-13 0.4% 0.4
0-14
Total 100% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 15.2 95.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%