Dartmouth
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.8 #229
Expected Predictive Rating -3.4 #217
Pace 73.6 #60
Improvement +3.4 #49

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #220 C+ D+ D C C
Defense #243 C C+ F B- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #346 1.08 #271 -5.9 #347
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #261 0.72 #226 -1.7 #273
Three Pointers 53% #14 1.13 #42 +8.9 #7
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #135 +1.3 #134
Freethrows 0.31 #154 72% #209 0.22 #163
Second Chance 26.1% #303 1.05 #134 0.27 #262
Turnovers 19.2% #315
Total Offense -2.0 #220

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #35 1.18 #217 -4.0 #312
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #225 0.75 #167 +0.7 #132
Three Pointers 37% #294 0.92 #56 +3.9 #39
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #153 +0.7 #154
Freethrows 0.27 #68 72% #146 0.19 #72
Second Chance 31.0% #191 0.96 #90 0.30 #134
Turnovers 12.0% #359
Total Defense -1.8 #243

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.2% #208 1.3% #291
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.8% #128 -2.6% #127
Possession Length 16.6 #108 16.5 #61
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #304 0.18 #202
Improvement +1.8 #89 +1.6 #92

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.2% 5.9% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.6
.500 or above 14.8% 24.1% 5.5%
.500 or above in Conference 61.2% 78.9% 43.6%
Conference Champion 3.5% 6.2% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 0.9% 4.5%
First Four0.9% 0.9% 0.8%
First Round3.9% 5.5% 2.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Harvard (Home) - 49.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 34 - 44 - 9
Quad 47 - 511 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sun, Nov 9 161 Marist L 56 - 75 48% -8  0 - 1 -22 -15 F D+ F -6 D+ C C-
 Wed, Nov 12 347 @Bryant L 75 - 82 68% -1  0 - 2 -16 -5 C- F D- -10 F+ A- F
 Sun, Nov 16 172 Appalachian St. L 77 - 85 51% -5  0 - 3 -12 +2 A C- F -14 F C B-
 Sat, Nov 29 235 @St. Peter's W 87 - 61 40% +7  1 - 3 +25 +21 A B A- +5 B+ C+ D
 Wed, Dec 3 320 New Hampshire W 69 - 68 80% -2  2 - 3 -12 -8 C+ F F -4 C+ B F
 Sat, Dec 6 111 @Wyoming L 80 - 93 17% -1  2 - 4 -6 +7 A+ B- F -13 F A+ F
 Tue, Dec 9 103 @Colorado St. L 55 - 76 14% -9  2 - 5 -13 -11 D+ D- F -5 F A+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 290 Boston University W 77 - 64 74% +9  3 - 5 +3 +1 C F+ C +3 A C+ F
 Tue, Dec 16 323 @Holy Cross W 89 - 64 62% +11  4 - 5 +18 +17 A+ C F +2 B+ B- F
 Fri, Dec 19 276 @Sacred Heart L 63 - 85 48% -8  4 - 6 -25 -17 F C- F -7 A F F
 Mon, Dec 29 5 @Florida L 72 - 94 1% -21  4 - 7 +3 +7 B+ C B+ -3 C+ C- C
 Mon, Jan 5 165 @Harvard W 76 - 68 27% +3  5 - 7 1 - 0 +11 +12 A B+ C -0 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 176 @Cornell W 102 - 91 29% +8  6 - 7 2 - 0 +13 +16 B+ B+ A+ -4 B+ C D+
 Sat, Jan 17 180 Penn L 74 - 84 52% -1  6 - 8 2 - 1 -14 -4 D- C D+ -10 C- C F
 Mon, Jan 19 213 Princeton W 71 - 69 59% -3  7 - 8 3 - 1 -4 +8 C+ B- A -11 C- B- F
 Sat, Jan 24 183 Columbia L 69 - 79 53% -4  7 - 9 3 - 2 -15 -9 D- C D -6 B B F+
 Fri, Jan 30 80 @Yale L 68 - 83 10% -3  7 - 10 3 - 3 -5 +2 C+ F+ C -9 F A- C-
 Sat, Jan 31 280 @Brown W 77 - 70 OT 50% +4  8 - 10 4 - 3 +3 +2 C F+ D+ +1 B D+ C
 Sat, Feb 7 165 Harvard L 71 - 72 50%
 Fri, Feb 13 80 Yale L 74 - 82 23%
 Sat, Feb 14 280 Brown W 73 - 67 71%
 Sat, Feb 21 183 @Columbia L 75 - 80 31%
 Fri, Feb 27 180 @Penn L 76 - 81 32%
 Sat, Feb 28 213 @Princeton L 71 - 75 36%
 Sat, Mar 7 176 Cornell W 90 - 89 51%
Totals 11 - 14 7 - 7 -4 -2 C+ D+ D -2 C C+ F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.7 1.4 0.3 3.5 1st
2nd 0.3 6.6 7.3 1.1 15.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 6.2 11.6 1.3 19.2 3rd
4th 0.0 2.3 14.5 2.4 0.0 19.2 4th
5th 0.6 10.4 6.1 0.0 17.0 5th
6th 0.0 4.5 9.9 0.4 14.8 6th
7th 2.0 7.0 1.6 0.0 10.6 7th
8th 0.4 0.1 0.5 8th
Total 2.4 12.1 24.3 27.4 20.7 10.3 2.5 0.3 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 100.0% 0.3    0.2 0.1
10-4 56.5% 1.4    0.5 0.8 0.1
9-5 16.5% 1.7    0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2
8-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 0.8 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 0.3% 25.9% 25.9% 13.3 0.1 0.0 0.2
10-4 2.5% 13.1% 13.1% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.2
9-5 10.3% 11.0% 11.0% 15.0 0.1 1.0 0.1 9.1
8-6 20.7% 8.3% 8.3% 15.5 0.0 0.8 0.9 19.0
7-7 27.4% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.9 26.5
6-8 24.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 24.2
5-9 12.1% 12.1
4-10 2.4% 2.4
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 15.3 95.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 2.4%