Drake
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.0 193
Results Rating -3.0 216
Pace 67.8 197
Improvement -2.3 269

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 153 C C- B C C-
Defense C- 244 C- B- D C+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 326 C 58% 167 -3.2 292
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% 205 B 43% 53 +1.4 101
Three Pointers 46% 78 C 34% 201 +2.2 103
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.5 252 C+ +0.9 136
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 158
Second Chance D 25.9% 304 B- 1.10 76 C- 0.29 236
Turnovers B 14.3% 40
Freethrows C 0.31 176 C- 70% 250 C 0.22 192
Total Offense C +0.3 153

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 44% 259 C 11.0% 178
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 18% 273 B- 3.8% 92
Three Pointers C+ 86% 139 C 0.8% 166
Total C- 54% 223 B- 4.8% 90

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 335 D+ 61% 262 -3.1 79
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 115 B+ 33% 20 -0.5 146
Three Pointers 46% 39 D- 38% 329 +5.4 352
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.7 65 D+ +2.4 273
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 235
Second Chance C 30.2% 174 B+ 0.91 38 B- 0.28 77
Turnovers D 14.6% 309
Freethrows C 0.30 175 B 70% 52 C+ 0.21 141
Total Defense C- -2.3 244

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 196 C- 10.2% 199
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 21% 93 C 4.8% 178
Three Pointers B- 80% 78 D 0.2% 324
Total C- 57% 208 D+ 4.4% 279

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.6 201 17.1 153
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 251 0.18 199
Improvement +0.9 #141 -3.1 #325

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 221 198 175
Results Rating Rank 245 214 186
Conference Record 6 - 14 7 - 13 8 - 12
Conference Finish 9 9 9
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.6 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Valparaiso (Away) - 31.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 71 - 9
Quad 35 - 96 - 18
Quad 45 - 211 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 304 Northern Arizona W 77 - 71 73% +0  51% 1 - 0 C- -2 D -4 C F B B- +2 C+ A- F
 Thu, Nov 6 179 Robert Morris L 79 - 81 OT 58% -2  20% 1 - 1 D+ -6 D -4 F D+ A C- -2 D- B A
 Fri, Nov 14 260 SIU Edwardsville L 59 - 61 74% -5  22% 1 - 2 D -11 D- -8 F B+ B+ D+ -3 D A F+
 Mon, Nov 17 149 @College of Charleston W 71 - 62 30% +5  69% 2 - 2 B+ +12 C +0 B- D F A+ +12 A- A C-
 Fri, Nov 28 53 LSU L 62 - 71 13% -9  1% 2 - 3 C +1 F+ -9 D- F A+ A +10 B- A+ F+
 Sat, Nov 29 140 Georgia Tech W 84 - 74 38% +5  86% 3 - 3 B +11 A+ +17 B+ A+ A+ D -5 C- B+ F
 Tue, Dec 2 362 Western Illinois W 108 - 57 95% +26  98% 4 - 3 A+ +30 A+ +34 A+ A+ B- C+ +1 C A- F
 Fri, Dec 5 121 UAB L 69 - 74 43% -2  7% 4 - 4 D+ -5 D+ -4 F+ C- A C- -2 B- D A-
 Sat, Dec 13 129 North Dakota St. L 94 - 99 46% -9  3% 4 - 5 D+ -6 A+ +14 A+ F C+ F -20 F D+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 123 @Murray St. L 72 - 81 23% -5  17% 4 - 6 0 - 1 C- -3 C -0 D C+ C D+ -4 A D+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 295 @Evansville W 66 - 65 61% +2  61% 5 - 6 1 - 1 C- -4 D -6 C- D D+ B- +2 A F C-
 Mon, Dec 29 103 Illinois St. L 56 - 73 36% -8  13% 5 - 7 1 - 2 F+ -15 F -14 F D+ B+ C- -3 F A+ A+
 Sun, Jan 4 213 Indiana St. W 74 - 72 65% -0  41% 6 - 7 2 - 2 C- -4 B- +4 A C C+ D- -7 C+ F A-
 Wed, Jan 7 112 @Bradley L 66 - 93 21% -20  3% 6 - 8 2 - 3 F -21 F -10 D+ F C F+ -9 F+ C- D-
 Sat, Jan 10 67 Belmont L 76 - 78 24% +11  91% 6 - 9 2 - 4 C+ +3 D+ -2 A+ F F B+ +6 A+ D- C+
 Wed, Jan 14 125 @Southern Illinois W 76 - 73 OT 23% -4  21% 7 - 9 3 - 4 B +9 C- -0 D- B+ B- A +9 A+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 109 @Illinois-Chicago L 67 - 74 20% -7  0% 7 - 10 3 - 5 C -0 C +1 C F A+ C -1 B+ D+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 123 Murray St. W 101 - 90 43% +5  80% 8 - 10 4 - 5 B +11 B+ +8 C A+ A+ C+ +1 C+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 24 213 @Indiana St. W 76 - 62 42% +5  95% 9 - 10 5 - 5 B+ +14 D+ -3 C- F B+ A+ +16 B A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 28 295 Evansville W 82 - 78 80% -6  6% 10 - 10 6 - 5 D+ -7 B +7 C D- A+ F -13 F A+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 112 Bradley L 73 - 87 41% -8  12% 10 - 11 6 - 6 D- -14 C+ +3 D C+ A+ F -18 F F+ C
 Tue, Feb 3 67 @Belmont L 90 - 103 11% -8  6% 10 - 12 6 - 7 C -2 A+ +18 A+ A+ C+ F -19 F D- F
 Fri, Feb 6 103 @Illinois St. L 76 - 86 18% -12  0% 10 - 13 6 - 8 C- -2 B- +4 C C B+ D -6 D C D
 Mon, Feb 9 151 Valparaiso L 76 - 81 53% +0  50% 10 - 14 6 - 9 D+ -8 B- +4 D- A A+ F -12 F F B-
 Thu, Feb 12 109 Illinois-Chicago L 70 - 80 40% -4  11% 10 - 15 6 - 10 D -9 C +2 B- C- B F -11 D+ A F
 Sun, Feb 15 94 @Northern Iowa L 62 - 86 15% -11  12% 10 - 16 6 - 11 F+ -15 C- -1 B- D B+ F -16 F C- F+
 Wed, Feb 18 125 Southern Illinois L 61 - 66 44% +1  53% 10 - 17 6 - 12 D+ -5 F -10 D D C- B +5 B+ A C
 Wed, Feb 25 151 @Valparaiso L 69 - 74 31%
 Sun, Mar 1 94 Northern Iowa L 63 - 68 33%
Totals 11 - 18 7 - 13 -2 C +0 F C+ C- C- -2 C C- C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C B C C+ 33% 36% 46% C- C D B- C- B C C- C C- D+ B+ D- D+ 31% 22% 46% B C- C B+ B- D C B C+
1.09 58% 43% 34% +1 0 1.03 26% 1.1 .29 14% .31 70% .22 1.12 61% 33% 38% +2 -1 1.05 30% 0.9 .28 15% .30 70% .21
Nov
3		 Northern Arizona D C- A+ C C 46% 15% 38% C+ C C F F B A- C- B+ B- A+ A+ F B 49% 20% 31% F+ C+ F A+ A- F A A A
1.11 58% 63% 35% +4 +1 1.13 33% 0.3 .11 14% .37 73% .27 1.03 43% 17% 53% -3 +1 0.98 31% 0.5 .14 9% .19 58% .11
Nov
6		 Robert Morris D D F F+ F 42% 20% 38% C- F C F D+ A A+ B- A+ C- F+ C- D F+ 36% 22% 41% C D- D A+ B A A+ F B-
1.06 52% 18% 29% -10 0 0.84 30% 0.8 .24 11% .48 78% .38 1.09 67% 38% 38% +5 0 1.12 39% 0.9 .33 23% .14 100% .14
Nov
14		 SIU Edwardsville D- F F+ F+ F 29% 20% 51% C F D A+ B+ B+ F F F D+ F D A- F+ 18% 31% 51% B+ D D A+ A F+ A A+ A+
0.97 43% 30% 28% -11 -1 0.80 28% 1.5 .41 13% .15 50% .08 1.00 89% 40% 28% +2 -3 1.00 32% 0.6 .18 15% .17 56% .10
Nov
17		 College of Charleston C B- F B B- 26% 21% 53% C B- D+ D- D F B- F C- A+ F A A- B- 13% 44% 42% A+ A- F+ A+ A C- C+ A+ A-
1.03 64% 27% 36% +1 -1 1.02 27% 0.8 .22 19% .25 57% .14 0.90 100% 26% 27% -4 -5 0.85 36% 0.6 .20 16% .33 63% .21
Nov
28		 LSU F+ F A+ F F+ 32% 14% 54% B- D- F D+ F A+ F A+ D- A C+ F A A- 62% 4% 35% F B- A+ A+ A+ F+ C- A+ B+
0.91 44% 50% 27% -9 0 0.86 14% 0.8 .12 10% .21 77% .16 1.04 59% 50% 28% -2 +4 1.06 15% 0.6 .09 10% .36 64% .23
Nov
29		 Georgia Tech A+ C+ B- C- B- 57% 11% 33% A+ B+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ B- A+ D D+ A+ F C- 40% 21% 40% C- C- B+ B- B+ F C- A+ A+
1.29 58% 40% 33% 0 +3 1.07 29% 1.7 .48 9% .46 74% .34 1.14 62% 18% 43% +3 0 1.08 27% 1.1 .30 9% .30 39% .12
Dec
2		 Western Illinois A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 31% 16% 53% D+ A+ D A+ A+ B- F A+ D C+ B+ F A+ D+ 23% 42% 35% A+ C C A+ A- F F B D
1.69 81% 75% 59% +33 0 1.69 29% 2.2 .65 13% .21 92% .20 0.89 45% 45% 24% -6 -4 0.83 24% 0.6 .14 13% .38 62% .23
Dec
5		 UAB D+ D+ F B- F+ 36% 24% 40% C- F+ D B C- A B- C+ B- C- F A- A+ C 36% 36% 28% A+ B- F+ C D A- F D F
1.01 55% 8% 36% -7 -1 0.87 23% 1.0 .23 12% .26 75% .20 1.08 71% 29% 23% -3 -2 0.91 38% 1.0 .38 16% .49 75% .37
Dec
13		 North Dakota St. A+ A+ F A+ A+ 27% 20% 53% D+ A+ F+ F F C+ A+ A+ A+ F C A- F F 21% 23% 55% B F A+ F D+ F D- A D+
1.30 77% 30% 54% +19 -1 1.39 22% 0.3 .07 18% .49 90% .44 1.37 58% 31% 55% +16 -2 1.30 18% 2.0 .36 7% .33 64% .21
Dec
18		 Murray St. C A+ C F C 26% 45% 30% F D C+ C+ C+ C A+ C+ A+ D+ C A+ C+ A 35% 15% 50% C A C D- D+ F F F F
1.08 75% 38% 21% -1 -4 0.91 34% 1.1 .37 16% .41 74% .30 1.21 59% 0% 33% -6 +1 0.92 32% 1.3 .41 7% .50 84% .42
Dec
21		 Evansville D C B C C- 35% 18% 47% B- C- D C- D D+ F+ F F B- A- C A A 22% 36% 42% A A F+ F F C- F C F
1.01 59% 44% 35% +2 0 1.06 26% 1.0 .26 18% .21 45% .09 0.99 50% 38% 26% -7 -3 0.82 29% 1.3 .37 18% .41 73% .30
Dec
29		 Illinois St. F D+ D+ F F 26% 30% 44% D F F+ A+ D+ B+ C+ F C- C- F A F F 25% 18% 58% C+ F B A+ A+ A+ C B C+
0.85 54% 33% 23% -10 -2 0.78 18% 1.3 .23 14% .32 61% .19 1.10 100% 29% 57% +28 -1 1.58 24% 0.5 .12 35% .28 67% .19
Jan
4		 Indiana St. B- D+ A+ B A+ 33% 29% 37% D- A C- C+ C C+ F F F D- D+ A+ C+ C+ 39% 5% 57% C C+ F F F A- F F F
1.17 53% 73% 37% +10 -1 1.20 31% 1.0 .31 14% .17 44% .07 1.14 65% 0% 32% -1 +2 1.05 34% 1.6 .55 22% .39 84% .33
Jan
7		 Bradley F F F A- D+ 24% 22% 55% C+ D+ F F F C A+ F B+ F+ C F D- F 33% 21% 46% C F+ B+ F C- D- F A- D-
0.89 42% 27% 39% -2 -1 0.96 15% 0.5 .08 19% .46 61% .28 1.25 58% 58% 38% +7 0 1.16 22% 1.4 .31 11% .42 68% .29
Jan
10		 Belmont D+ D D- A+ A+ 19% 13% 67% C A+ F F F F D+ F D- B+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 11% 56% B- A+ F A D- C+ F F+ F
1.04 50% 29% 46% +9 0 1.19 23% 0.8 .17 23% .25 64% .16 1.07 56% 17% 27% -9 +1 0.85 39% 1.1 .41 19% .43 76% .32
Jan
14		 Southern Illinois C- B+ A F F+ 27% 19% 54% C- D- D- A+ B+ B- A+ B- A A D A A+ A+ 32% 31% 37% B A+ C A+ B+ F D C+ D+
0.96 64% 50% 18% -9 -1 0.83 22% 1.7 .37 18% .38 72% .28 0.92 65% 32% 13% -11 -2 0.76 30% 0.7 .20 10% .34 67% .22
Jan
17		 Illinois-Chicago C F A+ F+ C+ 25% 25% 49% F+ C F+ F+ F A+ C+ F D- C A A+ C- B+ 28% 23% 50% B B+ C+ D- D+ F F A+ F
1.01 38% 69% 28% -1 -2 0.96 26% 0.8 .21 15% .32 56% .18 1.12 45% 22% 35% -6 -1 0.88 35% 1.2 .41 14% .66 63% .42
Jan
21		 Murray St. B+ A B- D- B+ 28% 54% 18% F C D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ C+ F F A+ C 32% 20% 48% B C+ A A+ A+ D F B+ D-
1.23 69% 42% 30% +4 -5 1.00 30% 1.7 .51 11% .56 78% .44 1.10 79% 50% 24% +2 0 1.05 24% 0.9 .22 13% .42 70% .30
Jan
24		 Indiana St. D+ A+ F F+ C- 30% 24% 46% D+ C- F+ F F B+ A+ D- A A+ F C+ A+ B- 33% 17% 50% A B B A+ A+ A+ D- A+ C-
1.04 75% 31% 28% -1 -1 0.98 25% 0.7 .18 12% .37 67% .25 0.85 75% 38% 25% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.5 .11 25% .31 59% .18
Jan
28		 Evansville B A+ A D+ C+ 18% 22% 60% D C D+ D- D- A+ A+ C A+ F F D+ F F 23% 37% 40% A F B+ A+ A+ D B+ A+ A
1.23 75% 50% 33% +5 -2 1.09 28% 0.9 .25 10% .63 74% .47 1.17 83% 42% 52% +18 -3 1.33 18% 0.6 .11 16% .21 58% .13
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Bradley C+ A+ A+ F C- 17% 38% 45% F D B D+ C+ A+ A+ A A+ F A+ A+ F F 27% 29% 44% A- F F B+ F+ C A- B- A-
1.12 75% 56% 19% 0 -4 0.94 35% 0.9 .32 12% .46 81% .37 1.34 43% 20% 70% +14 -2 1.27 40% 0.9 .37 14% .25 71% .18
Feb
3		 Belmont A+ D A+ A+ A+ 31% 20% 49% C A+ B- A+ A+ C+ C C C F F C+ F F 34% 14% 53% B F B F D- F A A+ A+
1.29 50% 50% 48% +10 0 1.22 36% 1.7 .61 17% .28 75% .21 1.47 80% 38% 48% +19 +1 1.41 24% 1.8 .42 7% .23 53% .12
Feb
6		 Illinois St. B- D- A D+ C+ 33% 31% 35% D+ C C+ D+ C B+ B- C B- D F+ A+ F D- 31% 20% 49% C+ D C C C D D- A+ C
1.06 50% 47% 32% -1 -2 0.96 29% 0.9 .26 14% .32 70% .23 1.20 71% 18% 44% +8 0 1.16 28% 1.1 .31 14% .34 57% .19
Feb
9		 Valparaiso B- D+ A+ F D- 34% 22% 44% C- D- C A+ A A+ F F+ F F A+ F F F 30% 24% 46% D F F+ F F B- F B- F
1.14 55% 46% 23% -6 0 0.88 32% 1.3 .41 9% .23 64% .15 1.21 43% 55% 43% +5 -1 1.11 38% 1.3 .50 16% .48 67% .32
Feb
12		 Illinois-Chicago C D+ F A B 33% 17% 50% C B- F A+ C- B C A- C+ F D A- F F+ 30% 37% 33% A+ D+ B- A+ A F C+ F F
1.07 53% 25% 39% 0 0 1.02 25% 1.3 .31 18% .30 81% .24 1.22 63% 30% 44% +4 -3 1.04 33% 0.8 .25 11% .31 94% .29
Feb
15		 Northern Iowa C- D- A+ C C 48% 6% 46% A B- F+ D+ D B+ B F+ C+ F F F F F 33% 15% 52% B- F B- F C- F+ B- F D
0.94 48% 67% 32% -5 +3 0.98 18% 0.8 .15 15% .31 65% .20 1.31 71% 63% 41% +13 0 1.29 19% 1.4 .26 11% .22 92% .20
Feb
18		 Southern Illinois F C+ D F D 32% 23% 45% C- D D+ D D C- D- F F B B A+ F A- 35% 24% 42% C- B+ C- A+ A C C+ A+ B
0.86 59% 33% 25% -7 -1 0.87 26% 0.9 .23 20% .23 46% .11 0.93 53% 8% 39% -6 -1 0.89 31% 0.5 .17 17% .29 59% .17



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 0.6 0.6 8th
9th 47.1 42.2 10.1 99.5 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 47.1 42.2 10.7 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 10.7% 0.8% 0.8% 15.3 0.1 0.0 10.6
7-13 42.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2 42.0
6-14 47.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.2 47.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.9 99.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 15.3 65.4 34.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 33.0%