Drake
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.6#73
Expected Predictive Rating+13.8#41
Pace54.4#364
Improvement-0.8#224

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#75
First Shot+4.1#71
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#198
Layup/Dunks+3.7#59
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#198
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#247
Freethrows+3.1#31
Improvement+1.3#113

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#77
First Shot+3.2#84
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#134
Layups/Dunks-3.4#305
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#30
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.1#3
Freethrows-2.5#337
Improvement-2.1#288
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.9% 40.4% 35.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.1% 4.9% 2.4%
Average Seed 11.3 11.2 11.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 81.4% 87.6% 68.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.4% 2.8% 1.6%
First Round37.4% 38.7% 34.7%
Second Round9.0% 9.8% 7.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.8% 2.0% 1.5%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Murray St. (Away) - 67.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 0
Quad 24 - 25 - 2
Quad 311 - 216 - 4
Quad 410 - 126 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2024 270   Stephen F. Austin W 66-51 93%     1 - 0 +6.4 +3.8 +4.8
  Nov 16, 2024 164   Florida Gulf Coast W 63-61 82%     2 - 0 -0.3 -4.4 +4.3
  Nov 21, 2024 169   Miami (FL) W 80-69 77%     3 - 0 +10.9 +13.0 -0.6
  Nov 22, 2024 106   Florida Atlantic W 75-63 63%     4 - 0 +16.2 +6.2 +10.7
  Nov 24, 2024 57   Vanderbilt W 81-70 41%     5 - 0 +20.8 +11.3 +9.3
  Nov 30, 2024 254   Georgia Southern W 61-47 92%     6 - 0 +6.2 -9.4 +16.8
  Dec 05, 2024 226   @ Valparaiso W 66-60 79%     7 - 0 1 - 0 +5.0 +1.1 +4.8
  Dec 17, 2024 55   @ Kansas St. W 73-70 OT 32%     8 - 0 +15.4 +11.1 +4.5
  Dec 21, 2024 347   Green Bay W 72-62 97%     9 - 0 -4.5 +5.9 -8.3
  Dec 29, 2024 140   Belmont W 65-46 80%     10 - 0 2 - 0 +17.8 +0.8 +20.8
  Jan 01, 2025 123   @ Illinois-Chicago L 70-74 61%     10 - 1 2 - 1 +0.6 +10.6 -10.7
  Jan 05, 2025 171   Murray St. L 59-66 83%     10 - 2 2 - 2 -9.7 -4.2 -6.9
  Jan 08, 2025 94   @ Bradley W 64-57 47%     11 - 2 3 - 2 +15.3 +4.3 +11.9
  Jan 11, 2025 230   Evansville W 63-40 90%     12 - 2 4 - 2 +16.6 +4.4 +17.4
  Jan 15, 2025 135   Illinois St. W 66-62 79%     13 - 2 5 - 2 +3.0 +11.9 -7.5
  Jan 18, 2025 210   @ Indiana St. W 71-53 77%     14 - 2 6 - 2 +17.9 +3.5 +16.1
  Jan 22, 2025 226   Valparaiso W 81-71 89%     15 - 2 7 - 2 +4.0 +12.6 -7.5
  Jan 25, 2025 223   @ Missouri St. W 69-62 OT 79%     16 - 2 8 - 2 +6.1 +7.2 +0.0
  Jan 29, 2025 108   Northern Iowa W 66-52 72%     17 - 2 9 - 2 +15.5 +9.9 +9.2
  Feb 01, 2025 183   @ Southern Illinois W 75-65 73%     18 - 2 10 - 2 +11.3 +14.0 -1.2
  Feb 04, 2025 171   @ Murray St. W 65-60 68%    
  Feb 08, 2025 210   Indiana St. W 76-63 90%    
  Feb 12, 2025 135   @ Illinois St. W 66-62 61%    
  Feb 16, 2025 94   Bradley W 65-61 68%    
  Feb 19, 2025 123   Illinois-Chicago W 71-63 79%    
  Feb 23, 2025 108   @ Northern Iowa W 64-63 53%    
  Feb 26, 2025 230   @ Evansville W 66-57 79%    
  Mar 02, 2025 223   Missouri St. W 67-54 90%    
Projected Record 24 - 4 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 3.3 15.3 28.4 25.3 8.9 81.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 6.7 5.9 1.4 15.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.7 0.0 2.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.2 0.7 3.2 10.8 21.2 29.8 25.3 8.9 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 8.9    8.9
17-3 100.0% 25.3    24.6 0.7
16-4 95.2% 28.4    22.7 5.7 0.0
15-5 72.1% 15.3    7.9 6.7 0.7
14-6 31.0% 3.3    0.7 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-7 6.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 1.5% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 81.4% 81.4 64.8 14.7 1.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 8.9% 55.9% 45.9% 10.0% 10.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.5 0.3 0.0 3.9 18.5%
17-3 25.3% 45.8% 41.9% 3.9% 11.2 0.1 0.7 7.8 3.0 0.0 13.7 6.7%
16-4 29.8% 39.4% 37.6% 1.8% 11.5 0.1 5.9 5.8 0.0 18.1 2.9%
15-5 21.2% 31.5% 30.9% 0.7% 11.7 0.0 2.3 4.3 0.1 14.5 1.0%
14-6 10.8% 28.5% 28.2% 0.3% 11.9 0.6 2.3 0.2 7.7 0.4%
13-7 3.2% 22.8% 22.8% 12.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 2.5
12-8 0.7% 19.4% 19.4% 12.2 0.1 0.0 0.5
11-9 0.2% 0.0 0.2
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 38.9% 36.3% 2.6% 11.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.9 19.2 16.4 0.4 61.1 4.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.1% 100.0% 10.1 2.0 2.7 6.1 14.2 26.4 42.5 5.9 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.6% 27.5% 10.8 0.6 1.3 2.5 22.5 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.9% 18.2% 10.9 1.6 16.7