Drake
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.3 #162
Expected Predictive Rating -0.9 #183
Pace 66.6 #237
Improvement -0.3 #198

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #159 C D+ B C D+
Defense #178 C B- D+ C+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #340 1.21 #111 -3.4 #298
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #154 0.84 #58 +1.4 #101
Three Pointers 47% #57 0.99 #217 +2.5 #95
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #157 +0.5 #156
Freethrows 0.31 #143 71% #236 0.22 #164
Second Chance 25.7% #312 1.04 #163 0.27 #278
Turnovers 14.2% #43
Total Offense +0.1 #159

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #340 1.23 #278 +3.1 #77
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #105 0.65 #23 +0.5 #150
Three Pointers 46% #44 1.09 #281 -4.3 #337
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #202 -0.7 #205
Freethrows 0.30 #170 69% #25 0.20 #118
Second Chance 29.5% #130 0.90 #35 0.27 #63
Turnovers 15.0% #277
Total Defense -0.4 #178

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #273 -1.5% #62
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.4% #136 2.9% #238
Possession Length 17.7 #222 17.1 #164
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #216 0.17 #181
Improvement +0.1 #167 -0.5 #212

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 3.7% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.7 14.4
.500 or above 22.2% 47.6% 17.9%
.500 or above in Conference 39.2% 70.1% 33.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round2.2% 3.7% 1.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Away) - 14.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 61 - 8
Quad 37 - 78 - 14
Quad 46 - 214 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 313 Northern Arizona W 77 - 71 80% +0  1 - 0 -3 -2 C F B- -1 C+ A- F
 Thu, Nov 6 220 Robert Morris L 79 - 81 OT 72% -2  1 - 1 -8 -3 F D+ A+ -5 D- B A
 Fri, Nov 14 252 SIU Edwardsville L 59 - 61 78% -5  1 - 2 -10 -5 F+ B B+ -5 D A- D-
 Mon, Nov 17 152 @College of Charleston W 71 - 62 36% +5  2 - 2 +12 +1 C+ D- F +11 A- A C
 Fri, Nov 28 49 LSU L 62 - 71 14% -9  2 - 3 +2 -6 D F A+ +8 B- A+ F+
 Sat, Nov 29 115 Georgia Tech W 84 - 74 37% +5  3 - 3 +13 +21 A- A+ A+ -7 C B- F
 Tue, Dec 2 362 Western Illinois W 108 - 57 95% +26  4 - 3 +32 +38 A+ A+ B- -1 C- A- F+
 Fri, Dec 5 120 UAB L 69 - 74 50% -2  4 - 4 -5 -3 D- C- A -3 C+ D+ A-
 Sat, Dec 13 139 North Dakota St. L 94 - 99 56% -9  4 - 5 -7 +17 A+ F C+ -23 F D F
 Thu, Dec 18 106 @Murray St. L 72 - 81 24% -5  4 - 6 0 - 1 -2 +3 D+ C+ C -5 A D+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 269 @Evansville W 66 - 65 61% +2  5 - 6 1 - 1 -2 -1 C D+ D+ -1 A- F C-
 Mon, Dec 29 87 Illinois St. L 56 - 73 36% -8  5 - 7 1 - 2 -14 -11 F+ C- B+ -4 F A+ A+
 Sun, Jan 4 198 Indiana St. W 74 - 72 69% -0  6 - 7 2 - 2 -3 +7 A C C+ -11 C+ F A-
 Wed, Jan 7 121 @Bradley L 66 - 93 28% -20  6 - 8 2 - 3 -21 -9 D+ F C -11 F+ C D-
 Sat, Jan 10 74 Belmont L 76 - 78 31% +11  6 - 9 2 - 4 +3 +1 A+ F F +2 A+ D C
 Wed, Jan 14 137 @Southern Illinois W 76 - 73 OT 32% -4  7 - 9 3 - 4 +7 +0 D- B C+ +7 A+ A- F
 Sat, Jan 17 135 @Illinois-Chicago L 67 - 74 32% -7  7 - 10 3 - 5 -2 +1 C F A+ -4 B C- F+
 Wed, Jan 21 106 Murray St. W 101 - 90 44% +5  8 - 10 4 - 5 +12 +11 C A+ A+ -0 C+ A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 24 198 @Indiana St. W 76 - 62 47% +5  9 - 10 5 - 5 +15 +1 C F B +13 B- A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 28 269 Evansville W 82 - 78 80% -6  10 - 10 6 - 5 -5 +11 C+ D A+ -16 F A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 31 121 Bradley L 73 - 87 50% -8  10 - 11 6 - 6 -14 +5 D C+ A+ -20 F D- C
 Tue, Feb 3 74 @Belmont L 72 - 83 14%
 Fri, Feb 6 87 @Illinois St. L 66 - 76 18%
 Mon, Feb 9 160 Valparaiso W 71 - 68 62%
 Thu, Feb 12 135 Illinois-Chicago W 72 - 71 55%
 Sun, Feb 15 110 @Northern Iowa L 60 - 67 26%
 Wed, Feb 18 137 Southern Illinois W 72 - 71 54%
 Wed, Feb 25 160 @Valparaiso L 68 - 71 39%
 Sun, Mar 1 110 Northern Iowa L 63 - 64 47%
Totals 13 - 16 9 - 11 +0 +0 C D+ B +0 C B- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 2.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.8 1.9 0.1 5.1 4th
5th 0.2 4.2 5.8 0.7 10.7 5th
6th 0.1 4.5 11.7 2.5 0.1 18.9 6th
7th 0.1 4.3 14.2 5.7 0.1 24.3 7th
8th 0.2 4.7 13.8 8.0 0.4 27.1 8th
9th 1.7 5.2 3.5 0.2 10.6 9th
10th 0.2 0.1 0.3 10th
11th 11th
Total 2.1 10.1 21.7 27.0 22.2 11.5 4.5 0.8 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 17.6% 0.0    0.0
13-7 4.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.1% 0.1
13-7 0.8% 8.5% 8.5% 12.2 0.1 0.0 0.7
12-8 4.5% 5.7% 5.7% 12.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.3
11-9 11.5% 4.4% 4.4% 13.5 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 11.0
10-10 22.2% 2.7% 2.7% 14.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 21.7
9-11 27.0% 2.1% 2.1% 15.0 0.0 0.5 0.1 26.4
8-12 21.7% 0.9% 0.9% 15.7 0.1 0.1 21.5
7-13 10.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.0
6-14 2.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 14.2 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.3%