Drake
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -0.9 #169
Expected Predictive Rating -2.7 #214
Pace 64.0 #316
Improvement -3.0 #326

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #156 C+ D+ B+ C- C
Defense #213 D+ B D B- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #298 1.19 #136 -1.8 #247
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #188 0.79 #131 +0.1 #172
Three Pointers 46% #89 1.05 #138 +3.2 #84
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #139 +1.5 #140
Freethrows 16.3 #241 73% #176 11.8 #227
Second Chance 25.7% #313 1.09 #124 0.28 #265
Turnovers 14.2% #47
Total Offense +0.3 #156

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #311 1.23 #271 +1.8 #115
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #170 0.67 #71 +0.7 #146
Three Pointers 46% #57 1.12 #307 -4.8 #338
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #259 -2.4 #260
Freethrows 15.8 #111 72% #173 11.4 #258
Second Chance 28.9% #112 0.94 #62 0.27 #69
Turnovers 14.9% #284
Total Defense -1.2 #213

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.4% #220 -0.8% #99
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.4% #130 5.4% #280
Possession Length 18.2 #272 17.2 #176
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #294 0.17 #163
Improvement -0.6 #231 -2.4 #319

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 2.3% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.7 14.6
.500 or above 16.7% 29.9% 11.3%
.500 or above in Conference 26.1% 43.6% 19.1%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 5.2% 1.6% 6.6%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round1.5% 2.3% 1.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Home) - 28.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 35 - 76 - 15
Quad 46 - 313 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 302 Northern Arizona W 77 - 71 75%  +0  1 - 0 -2 +2 B- F B+ -4 C A F
 Thu, Nov 6 206 Robert Morris L 79 - 81 OT 67%  -2  1 - 1 -8 -2 F D- A+ -5 F B+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 275 SIU Edwardsville L 59 - 61 80%  -5  1 - 2 -12 -7 F B- A -5 D- A+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 149 @College of Charleston W 71 - 62 34%  +5  2 - 2 +12 +1 C D F +12 A+ A+ C
 Fri, Nov 28 42 LSU L 62 - 71 12%  -9  2 - 3 +3 -5 D- F A+ +7 B A+ F
 Sat, Nov 29 114 Georgia Tech W 84 - 74 33%  +5  3 - 3 +14 +21 A+ A+ A+ -7 C B- F
 Tue, Dec 2 358 Western Illinois W 108 - 57 93%  +26  4 - 3 +33 +38 A+ A+ B- -0 C A+ F
 Fri, Dec 5 113 UAB L 69 - 74 44%  -2  4 - 4 -4 -2 D- C A+ -2 B- D+ A
 Sat, Dec 13 146 North Dakota St. L 94 - 99 55%  -9  4 - 5 -7 +17 A+ F C -24 F C F
 Thu, Dec 18 91 @Murray St. L 72 - 81 17%  -5  4 - 6 0 - 1 +0 +5 C- B- D+ -5 A+ D F
 Sun, Dec 21 263 @Evansville W 66 - 65 58%  +2  5 - 6 1 - 1 -2 -0 C D+ C- -2 A- F C-
 Mon, Dec 29 85 Illinois St. L 56 - 73 32%  -8  5 - 7 1 - 2 -13 -12 F C A -2 F A+ A+
 Sun, Jan 4 191 Indiana St. W 74 - 72 66%  -0  6 - 7 2 - 2 -3 +8 A+ D+ B- -10 C F A+
 Wed, Jan 7 116 @Bradley L 66 - 93 24%  -20  6 - 8 2 - 3 -20 -7 D+ F B+ -12 F C- F
 Sat, Jan 10 73 Belmont L 73 - 79 29% 
 Wed, Jan 14 130 @Southern Illinois L 69 - 75 29% 
 Sat, Jan 17 184 @Illinois-Chicago L 70 - 72 43% 
 Wed, Jan 21 91 Murray St. L 76 - 80 36% 
 Sat, Jan 24 191 @Indiana St. L 72 - 74 43% 
 Wed, Jan 28 263 Evansville W 73 - 65 77% 
 Sat, Jan 31 116 Bradley L 70 - 72 44% 
 Tue, Feb 3 73 @Belmont L 70 - 82 14% 
 Fri, Feb 6 85 @Illinois St. L 65 - 76 15% 
 Mon, Feb 9 188 Valparaiso W 71 - 67 64% 
 Thu, Feb 12 184 Illinois-Chicago W 73 - 69 64% 
 Sun, Feb 15 96 @Northern Iowa L 58 - 67 20% 
 Wed, Feb 18 130 Southern Illinois W 72 - 71 51% 
 Wed, Feb 25 188 @Valparaiso L 68 - 70 44% 
 Sun, Mar 1 96 Northern Iowa L 61 - 64 38% 
Totals 12 - 17 8 - 12 -1 +0 C+ D+ B+ -1 D+ B D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.8 0.4 0.0 4.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 3.0 3.8 1.2 0.1 9.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 5.9 6.3 2.0 0.1 0.0 16.4 6th
7th 0.2 2.6 8.0 7.4 2.0 0.2 20.4 7th
8th 0.3 2.8 8.0 6.7 1.6 0.1 19.3 8th
9th 0.2 2.6 6.1 5.0 1.1 0.1 15.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.0 2.9 0.6 0.0 10.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.0 2.1 11th
Total 0.1 1.1 3.5 7.3 12.0 16.3 17.8 15.8 11.8 7.8 4.0 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 51.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 13.2% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 11.1% 11.1% 12.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.7% 7.4% 7.4% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.6
13-7 1.7% 7.2% 7.2% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.6
12-8 4.0% 6.2% 6.2% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.8
11-9 7.8% 3.3% 3.3% 13.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 7.5
10-10 11.8% 2.1% 2.1% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.5
9-11 15.8% 1.6% 1.6% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 15.5
8-12 17.8% 0.7% 0.7% 15.6 0.0 0.1 17.7
7-13 16.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 16.2
6-14 12.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.9
5-15 7.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.3
4-16 3.5% 3.5
3-17 1.1% 1.1
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 14.2 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%