Fairleigh Dickinson
Northeast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.9#322
Expected Predictive Rating-10.6#328
Pace72.6#76
Improvement+2.7#68

Offense
Total Offense-5.4#318
First Shot-3.6#285
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#288
Layup/Dunks-1.5#235
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#315
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#114
Freethrows-1.6#281
Improvement-3.5#338

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#304
First Shot-3.1#274
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#298
Layups/Dunks-5.8#352
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#274
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#7
Freethrows-2.2#324
Improvement+6.2#2
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.9% 12.9% 9.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.1% 5.1% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 87.5% 97.7% 85.5%
Conference Champion 4.8% 23.2% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.1% 0.8%
First Four9.8% 12.4% 9.3%
First Round4.1% 6.6% 3.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Connecticut St. (Away) - 16.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 50 - 9
Quad 411 - 1011 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 169   @ Miami (FL) L 72-113 13%     0 - 1 -38.7 -9.1 -27.1
  Nov 10, 2024 28   @ Creighton L 70-96 2%     0 - 2 -9.2 -1.2 -5.2
  Nov 13, 2024 48   @ Nebraska L 60-86 3%     0 - 3 -12.9 -7.1 -5.0
  Nov 17, 2024 271   Manhattan W 85-82 45%     1 - 3 -5.7 +7.1 -12.7
  Nov 20, 2024 297   @ Army L 70-84 32%     1 - 4 -19.0 -6.7 -12.0
  Nov 26, 2024 272   St. Peter's L 76-78 45%     1 - 5 -10.7 +6.8 -17.6
  Dec 01, 2024 326   @ Fairfield L 74-78 41%     1 - 6 -11.7 -3.9 -7.8
  Dec 04, 2024 191   @ Fordham L 75-84 15%     1 - 7 -7.9 -5.1 -1.8
  Dec 11, 2024 46   @ Villanova L 72-86 3%     1 - 8 -0.6 +9.9 -11.9
  Dec 18, 2024 193   @ La Salle L 72-77 16%     1 - 9 -4.0 +1.2 -5.2
  Dec 21, 2024 92   @ Minnesota L 60-74 5%     1 - 10 -5.5 -5.7 -0.3
  Dec 28, 2024 176   @ Boston College L 70-78 14%     1 - 11 -6.3 +6.4 -13.8
  Jan 05, 2025 335   @ Wagner W 71-59 46%     2 - 11 1 - 0 +3.2 -3.9 +7.1
  Jan 10, 2025 355   @ Le Moyne W 91-86 2OT 54%     3 - 11 2 - 0 -6.0 -6.9 -0.1
  Jan 12, 2025 336   St. Francis (PA) L 71-75 65%     3 - 12 2 - 1 -18.0 -7.3 -10.7
  Jan 18, 2025 209   Central Connecticut St. L 60-71 32%     3 - 13 2 - 2 -16.0 -11.8 -4.2
  Jan 20, 2025 359   @ Chicago St. W 58-48 57%     4 - 13 3 - 2 -1.7 -14.3 +13.1
  Jan 26, 2025 321   @ Stonehill W 65-54 40%     5 - 13 4 - 2 +3.8 -4.1 +9.0
  Jan 30, 2025 355   Le Moyne W 78-74 72%     6 - 13 5 - 2 -11.9 +0.5 -12.2
  Feb 01, 2025 353   Mercyhurst L 60-67 71%     6 - 14 5 - 3 -22.6 -14.4 -8.8
  Feb 06, 2025 209   @ Central Connecticut St. L 64-74 16%    
  Feb 08, 2025 335   Wagner W 67-63 66%    
  Feb 13, 2025 359   Chicago St. W 75-68 76%    
  Feb 15, 2025 327   @ LIU Brooklyn L 67-69 40%    
  Feb 20, 2025 353   @ Mercyhurst W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 22, 2025 336   @ St. Francis (PA) L 73-74 44%    
  Feb 27, 2025 321   Stonehill W 73-71 61%    
  Mar 01, 2025 327   LIU Brooklyn W 70-67 61%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.0 0.6 4.8 1st
2nd 0.3 9.5 18.6 11.4 2.4 42.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 4.8 13.6 3.5 0.1 21.9 3rd
4th 1.1 10.4 3.4 0.1 15.0 4th
5th 0.0 3.9 4.1 0.1 8.1 5th
6th 0.7 3.8 0.4 4.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 0.8 2.2 7th
8th 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.4 2.6 9.6 20.1 26.5 22.7 13.2 4.4 0.6 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 0.6    0.4 0.2
12-4 44.6% 2.0    0.8 1.2
11-5 13.3% 1.8    0.4 1.3 0.1
10-6 2.1% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 4.8% 4.8 1.6 2.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.6% 17.2% 17.2% 15.5 0.1 0.1 0.5
12-4 4.4% 14.6% 14.6% 16.0 0.6 3.7
11-5 13.2% 15.4% 15.4% 16.0 2.0 11.2
10-6 22.7% 12.5% 12.5% 16.0 2.8 19.8
9-7 26.5% 8.2% 8.2% 16.0 2.2 24.3
8-8 20.1% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 1.4 18.7
7-9 9.6% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.7 8.9
6-10 2.6% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.1 2.5
5-11 0.4% 0.4
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 9.9% 9.9% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 9.9 90.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%