Fairleigh Dickinson
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.7 #343
Expected Predictive Rating -14.5 #349
Pace 65.2 #274
Improvement +3.5 #43

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #318 D D+ C- D C
Defense #338 F+ B- D+ D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #316 1.11 #247 -3.9 #308
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #231 0.81 #100 -0.6 #213
Three Pointers 49% #31 0.86 #342 +0.4 #164
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #309 -4.2 #308
Freethrows 0.27 #297 69% #294 0.18 #315
Second Chance 30.4% #191 0.86 #349 0.26 #285
Turnovers 17.7% #244
Total Offense -5.8 #318

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #172 1.28 #324 -2.6 #274
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #265 0.83 #291 +0.4 #154
Three Pointers 43% #109 1.21 #361 -5.2 #349
1st FG Attempt 1.17 #360 -7.4 #360
Freethrows 0.34 #291 73% #206 0.24 #288
Second Chance 28.2% #87 0.96 #88 0.27 #72
Turnovers 15.2% #267
Total Defense -5.9 #338

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.0% #195 0.8% #238
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.3% #318 13.7% #360
Possession Length 19.1 #338 16.5 #55
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.07 #364 0.18 #235
Improvement -0.5 #207 +4.0 #18

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.1% 5.8% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 54.9% 69.7% 35.0%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 1.0% 5.3%
First Four5.1% 5.8% 4.3%
First Round2.1% 2.3% 1.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stonehill (Home) - 57.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 30 - 8
Quad 48 - 138 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 4 @Iowa St. L 50 - 88 0% -24  0 - 1 -13 -10 F C+ D+ -2 F+ A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 8 235 @St. Peter's L 83 - 93 16% -7  0 - 2 -11 +7 A+ A- F -17 F B- D
 Wed, Nov 12 31 @Texas L 58 - 93 1% -17  0 - 3 -17 -12 F+ F B -3 D+ A D+
 Sat, Nov 15 324 @NJIT L 81 - 93 33% -11  0 - 4 -19 -1 D- D C+ -17 F C A
 Mon, Nov 24 311 East Texas A&M L 65 - 70 51% +5  0 - 5 -17 -8 C+ C- F -9 F B- C+
 Wed, Nov 26 336 Army L 73 - 81 59% -2  0 - 6 -22 -5 F A- A -18 D D+ F
 Tue, Dec 2 67 @Providence L 64 - 94 3% -23  0 - 7 -19 -3 D+ C F -17 F C+ C+
 Wed, Dec 10 169 @Fordham L 54 - 75 10% -11  0 - 8 -19 -12 C F F+ -9 F C B
 Mon, Dec 22 127 @Boston College L 61 - 72 7% +2  0 - 9 -6 +4 C D+ A+ -12 F+ D- F+
 Mon, Dec 29 76 @Minnesota L 43 - 60 3% -7  0 - 10 -6 -17 F F+ F +8 A C B+
 Fri, Jan 2 304 @Mercyhurst W 74 - 67 27% -0  1 - 10 1 - 0 +2 +8 A+ F F -5 C C+ B
 Sun, Jan 4 357 @St. Francis (PA) L 82 - 85 49% +0  1 - 11 1 - 1 -14 +1 F C A+ -16 D- F D-
 Thu, Jan 8 355 Chicago St. W 70 - 63 71% +9  2 - 11 2 - 1 -10 -7 F+ F+ D -3 F A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 10 334 @New Haven L 55 - 65 36% -10  2 - 12 2 - 2 -18 -13 F F B- -6 F B- D
 Sat, Jan 17 195 LIU Brooklyn L 59 - 66 27% -2  2 - 13 2 - 3 -12 -11 F F C -2 D- B+ C
 Mon, Jan 19 330 Wagner W 68 - 61 57% +4  3 - 13 3 - 3 -7 +1 D+ A- F -7 C+ B+ F
 Fri, Jan 23 300 @Central Connecticut St. W 76 - 66 26% +4  4 - 13 4 - 3 +5 +14 A- D- A -8 D+ D- B-
 Mon, Jan 26 296 Le Moyne L 74 - 87 46% -13  4 - 14 4 - 4 -24 -0 F A- A+ -24 F A+ D+
 Thu, Jan 29 328 @Stonehill L 57 - 58 34% -1  4 - 15 4 - 5 -8 -4 F A C -4 C+ D F+
 Sat, Jan 31 330 @Wagner L 72 - 75 OT 34% -1  4 - 16 4 - 6 -11 -4 A- F D+ -7 C+ B F
 Thu, Feb 5 328 Stonehill W 66 - 64 57%
 Sat, Feb 7 304 Mercyhurst L 66 - 67 48%
 Thu, Feb 12 357 St. Francis (PA) W 77 - 71 70%
 Sat, Feb 14 300 Central Connecticut St. L 70 - 71 48%
 Thu, Feb 19 355 @Chicago St. L 71 - 72 49%
 Sat, Feb 21 334 New Haven W 67 - 65 58%
 Thu, Feb 26 296 @Le Moyne L 70 - 77 27%
 Sat, Feb 28 195 @LIU Brooklyn L 66 - 78 13%
Totals 8 - 20 8 - 10 -12 -6 D D+ C- -6 F+ B- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 1.2 0.2 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 4.1 0.7 6.0 3rd
4th 0.6 5.9 3.2 0.0 9.7 4th
5th 0.2 5.5 8.2 0.5 14.5 5th
6th 0.2 5.4 12.8 2.5 20.9 6th
7th 0.3 5.4 14.4 6.6 0.2 26.9 7th
8th 0.1 2.4 7.6 3.9 0.2 14.2 8th
9th 0.5 2.3 1.5 0.2 4.4 9th
10th 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 10th
Total 1.0 5.3 14.7 24.2 25.7 18.1 8.9 2.0 0.3 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 17.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-5 3.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.3% 25.0% 25.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.2
11-5 2.0% 12.0% 12.0% 16.0 0.2 1.7
10-6 8.9% 11.0% 11.0% 16.0 1.0 7.9
9-7 18.1% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 1.2 16.9
8-8 25.7% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 1.3 24.4
7-9 24.2% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.9 23.3
6-10 14.7% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.4 14.4
5-11 5.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 5.2
4-12 1.0% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 16.0 94.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%