Fairleigh Dickinson
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -12.8 #349
Expected Predictive Rating -16.4 #353
Pace 68.8 #195
Improvement +3.9 #27

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #320 D+ D D+ D- C
Defense #351 F B C- D+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #322 1.10 #248 -4.3 #316
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #286 0.85 #60 -1.3 #235
Three Pointers 52% #16 0.92 #292 +3.1 #86
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #248 -2.5 #248
Freethrows 15.8 #266 65% #346 10.3 #313
Second Chance 30.3% #202 0.86 #347 0.26 #291
Turnovers 18.1% #268
Total Offense -5.6 #320

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #236 1.33 #340 -2.1 #250
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #310 0.77 #202 +1.5 #83
Three Pointers 47% #36 1.25 #363 -8.9 #363
1st FG Attempt 1.20 #362 -9.4 #362
Freethrows 19.5 #295 71% #107 13.8 #100
Second Chance 29.0% #114 0.93 #57 0.27 #67
Turnovers 15.7% #237
Total Defense -7.1 #351

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.5% #156 0.9% #255
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.3% #261 17.5% #364
Possession Length 18.4 #293 16.8 #103
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 #359 0.20 #267
Improvement +0.1 #175 +3.7 #16

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 4.8% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.7% 1.6% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 52.4% 70.7% 42.9%
Conference Champion 1.3% 2.7% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 11.8% 4.6% 15.5%
First Four3.7% 4.8% 3.1%
First Round1.5% 2.0% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Haven (Away) - 34.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 48 - 148 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 3 @Iowa St. L 50 - 88 0%  -24  0 - 1 -12 -9 F C C- -2 F A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 8 259 @St. Peter's L 83 - 93 17%  -7  0 - 2 -13 +7 A+ A F -19 F B D+
 Wed, Nov 12 45 @Texas L 58 - 93 1%  -17  0 - 3 -21 -13 F F A- -6 F A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 15 351 @NJIT L 81 - 93 39%  -11  0 - 4 -22 -1 F D- C -20 F C A
 Mon, Nov 24 324 East Texas A&M L 65 - 70 51%  +5  0 - 5 -18 -9 C C F -9 F C+ C
 Wed, Nov 26 330 Army L 73 - 81 53%  -2  0 - 6 -22 -3 F A A -19 F D F
 Tue, Dec 2 66 @Providence L 64 - 94 2%  -23  0 - 7 -18 -2 C- C F -18 F C C
 Wed, Dec 10 203 @Fordham L 54 - 75 11%  -11  0 - 8 -20 -13 C F F -9 F C B-
 Mon, Dec 22 151 @Boston College L 61 - 72 8%  +2  0 - 9 -8 +3 C D A+ -12 F F F
 Mon, Dec 29 76 @Minnesota L 43 - 60 3%  -7  0 - 10 -6 -17 F F F +8 A+ B A-
 Fri, Jan 2 307 @Mercyhurst W 74 - 67 25%  -0  1 - 10 1 - 0 +1 +7 A+ F F -5 C- B B
 Sun, Jan 4 361 @St. Francis (PA) L 82 - 85 50%  +0  1 - 11 1 - 1 -16 +1 F C- A+ -17 F F F
 Thu, Jan 8 353 Chicago St. W 70 - 63 63%  +9  2 - 11 2 - 1 -9 -7 D- F D- -2 F A+ A-
 Sat, Jan 10 338 @New Haven L 66 - 70 34% 
 Sat, Jan 17 209 LIU Brooklyn L 72 - 79 25% 
 Mon, Jan 19 316 Wagner L 72 - 73 48% 
 Fri, Jan 23 269 @Central Connecticut St. L 69 - 78 19% 
 Sun, Jan 25 291 Le Moyne L 76 - 79 41% 
 Thu, Jan 29 340 @Stonehill L 68 - 72 35% 
 Sat, Jan 31 316 @Wagner L 70 - 76 28% 
 Thu, Feb 5 340 Stonehill W 71 - 69 57% 
 Sat, Feb 7 307 Mercyhurst L 68 - 69 46% 
 Thu, Feb 12 361 St. Francis (PA) W 78 - 72 70% 
 Sat, Feb 14 269 Central Connecticut St. L 72 - 75 38% 
 Thu, Feb 19 353 @Chicago St. L 73 - 76 41% 
 Sat, Feb 21 338 New Haven W 69 - 67 57% 
 Thu, Feb 26 291 @Le Moyne L 73 - 82 22% 
 Sat, Feb 28 209 @LIU Brooklyn L 69 - 82 11% 
Totals 8 - 20 8 - 10 -13 -6 D+ D D+ -7 F B C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.6 3.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 8.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 5.1 4.8 0.9 0.1 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 5.9 6.3 1.3 0.1 14.2 5th
6th 0.4 5.0 7.3 1.6 0.0 14.4 6th
7th 0.3 3.8 7.6 2.7 0.1 14.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.9 6.7 3.3 0.2 13.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.0 3.0 0.3 10.9 9th
10th 0.3 1.4 2.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.7 10th
Total 0.3 1.7 4.9 9.7 14.2 17.0 17.1 14.1 10.2 5.8 3.2 1.4 0.5 0.2 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 80.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-2 68.1% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
13-3 33.7% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1
12-4 9.2% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-5 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.2% 16.7% 16.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
14-2 0.5% 16.5% 16.5% 16.0 0.1 0.4
13-3 1.4% 14.9% 14.9% 16.0 0.2 1.2
12-4 3.2% 14.4% 14.4% 16.0 0.5 2.8
11-5 5.8% 7.5% 7.5% 16.0 0.4 5.3
10-6 10.2% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.6 9.6
9-7 14.1% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.6 13.4
8-8 17.1% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.6 16.6
7-9 17.0% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.4 16.6
6-10 14.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 14.0
5-11 9.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 9.6
4-12 4.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 4.8
3-13 1.7% 1.7
2-14 0.3% 0.3
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 16.0 96.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%