Fairleigh Dickinson
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.5 333
Results Rating -12.8 344
Pace 62.7 332
Improvement +3.9 50

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 310 D C- D+ D+ C-
Defense D- 330 D- B- D+ D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 317 C- 56% 221 -3.6 306
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% 237 C+ 39% 127 -0.2 190
Three Pointers 47% 52 F 28% 359 -1.1 223
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.2 219 D- -4.6 326
1st FG Attempt D 0.92 324
Second Chance C+ 31.5% 152 D- 0.91 331 C- 0.29 238
Turnovers D+ 18.3% 281
Freethrows D+ 0.28 264 D+ 69% 280 D+ 0.19 290
Total Offense D -5.4 310

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 42% 286 C- 12.0% 246
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 18% 276 B- 3.8% 89
Three Pointers D+ 80% 275 C 0.9% 194
Total D+ 50% 301 C+ 5.2% 127

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 211 D 63% 312 +1.5 224
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 211 D 42% 298 +0.2 205
Three Pointers 43% 114 F+ 39% 359 +4.4 341
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 185 F+ +5.8 355
1st FG Attempt D- 1.14 348
Second Chance B- 28.4% 98 B- 0.97 90 B- 0.28 73
Turnovers D+ 15.2% 277
Freethrows D 0.34 296 C 72% 182 D+ 0.25 290
Total Defense D- -6.1 330

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 46% 137 D- 5.5% 352
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 19% 58 F+ 0.8% 360
Three Pointers B+ 77% 34 C 1.0% 143
Total C+ 53% 117 F+ 2.7% 355

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.6 355 16.8 101
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.06 364 0.17 195
Improvement +0.3 #166 +3.6 #33

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 344 332 318
Results Rating Rank 351 339 323
Conference Record 8 - 8 8 - 8 9 - 7
Conference Finish 7 6 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 8% 6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four6% 8% 6%
First Round2% 3% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Le Moyne (Away) - 27.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 40 - 8
Quad 49 - 139 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 8 @Iowa St. L 50 - 88 0% -24  0% 0 - 1 D- -14 F -13 F C D- C -0 F A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 8 235 @St. Peter's L 83 - 93 17% -7  0% 0 - 2 D -11 B- +4 A+ A- F F -15 F B D-
 Wed, Nov 12 29 @Texas L 58 - 93 1% -17  11% 0 - 3 F+ -17 F -16 F+ F B C+ +0 D A+ D
 Sat, Nov 15 318 @NJIT L 81 - 93 32% -11  0% 0 - 4 F -19 D+ -3 D- D B- F -14 F C- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 308 East Texas A&M L 65 - 70 51% +5  71% 0 - 5 F+ -17 F -11 C+ C- F D -6 F C+ B-
 Wed, Nov 26 338 Army L 73 - 81 63% -2  31% 0 - 6 F -23 D- -7 F A A+ F -16 D- D+ F
 Tue, Dec 2 61 @Providence L 64 - 94 3% -23  0% 0 - 7 F -18 D -6 C- C+ F F -14 F B- C
 Wed, Dec 10 155 @Fordham L 54 - 75 9% -11  19% 0 - 8 F -18 F -12 C F D D- -7 F C B
 Mon, Dec 22 139 @Boston College L 61 - 72 8% +2  59% 0 - 9 D+ -7 C +1 C- C- A F+ -9 F+ D- D-
 Mon, Dec 29 59 @Minnesota L 43 - 60 3% -7  6% 0 - 10 D+ -5 F -19 F F F A+ +12 A C B+
 Fri, Jan 2 290 @Mercyhurst W 74 - 67 26% -0  44% 1 - 10 1 - 0 C+ +2 B- +4 A+ F+ F C -1 C C+ B+
 Sun, Jan 4 355 @St. Francis (PA) L 82 - 85 52% +0  46% 1 - 11 1 - 1 F+ -15 C- -2 F C- A+ F -13 D- F F+
 Thu, Jan 8 347 Chicago St. W 70 - 63 67% +9  94% 2 - 11 2 - 1 D -9 F+ -9 F+ F+ D C+ +1 F A+ A-
 Sat, Jan 10 321 @New Haven L 55 - 65 34% -10  1% 2 - 12 2 - 2 F+ -17 F -14 F F B- D+ -4 F B- D+
 Sat, Jan 17 219 LIU Brooklyn L 59 - 66 31% -2  25% 2 - 13 2 - 3 D- -13 F -13 F F C- C -1 F+ B+ C+
 Mon, Jan 19 320 Wagner W 68 - 61 57% +4  82% 3 - 13 3 - 3 D+ -6 C -0 D+ A F D+ -4 C+ B+ F
 Fri, Jan 23 303 @Central Connecticut St. W 76 - 66 28% +4  50% 4 - 13 4 - 3 C+ +5 A +11 A F+ A D -5 D+ D B-
 Mon, Jan 26 300 Le Moyne L 74 - 87 49% -13  0% 4 - 14 4 - 4 F -24 D+ -2 F A- A+ F -23 F A D
 Thu, Jan 29 341 @Stonehill L 57 - 58 41% -1  41% 4 - 15 4 - 5 D -10 D- -7 F A C C- -3 C D F+
 Sat, Jan 31 320 @Wagner L 72 - 75 OT 34% -1  37% 4 - 16 4 - 6 D -10 D -6 A- F D D+ -5 C+ B- F
 Thu, Feb 5 341 Stonehill W 74 - 58 64% +10  98% 5 - 16 5 - 6 C +1 B- +5 C A C- C- -2 B C+ D
 Sat, Feb 7 290 Mercyhurst W 55 - 52 47% +0  37% 6 - 16 6 - 6 D+ -8 F+ -8 D+ D+ F C+ +2 C A- F
 Thu, Feb 12 355 St. Francis (PA) W 66 - 59 73% +5  86% 7 - 16 7 - 6 D -11 F -14 F+ B+ F B +4 A+ C F+
 Sat, Feb 14 303 Central Connecticut St. L 57 - 63 50% -5  1% 7 - 17 7 - 7 F+ -17 F -12 F A+ F+ D- -7 B- C+ F
 Thu, Feb 19 347 @Chicago St. W 60 - 59 44% -0  44% 8 - 17 8 - 7 D -9 C- -1 F B- B D- -8 F B+ C-
 Sat, Feb 21 321 New Haven L 77 - 84 57% -13  0% 8 - 18 8 - 8 F -20 B +7 B+ C+ C F -28 F F F
 Thu, Feb 26 300 @Le Moyne L 69 - 75 28%
 Sat, Feb 28 219 @LIU Brooklyn L 65 - 76 14%
Totals 8 - 20 8 - 10 -11 D -5 D+ D- C- D- -6 F D+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D C- C+ F D- 33% 33% 47% C- D C+ D- C- D+ D+ D+ D+ D- D D F+ F+ 38% 19% 43% C D- B- B- B- D+ D C D+
1.01 56% 39% 28% -5 0 0.92 32% 0.9 .29 18% .28 69% .19 1.17 63% 42% 39% +6 0 1.14 28% 1.0 .28 15% .34 72% .20
Nov
3		 Iowa St. F C+ F F F 22% 24% 54% C- F D- A+ C D- A F B- C F B+ F F 34% 27% 39% A F A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ C+ A+
0.71 60% 18% 20% -16 -2 0.67 20% 1.4 .28 25% .32 59% .19 1.25 85% 31% 52% +18 -1 1.36 26% 0.3 .09 13% .15 67% .10
Nov
8		 St. Peter's B- A- A+ A A+ 38% 10% 52% B- A+ C- A+ A- F D- F F F F A+ F F 37% 19% 44% D+ F B- B- B D- F D+ F
1.12 67% 60% 40% +10 +1 1.25 33% 1.5 .48 24% .36 55% .20 1.25 79% 20% 43% +10 0 1.23 32% 0.9 .29 15% .43 78% .33
Nov
12		 Texas F F B- F+ F 41% 17% 41% B+ F+ D+ F F B F F F C+ F F A+ C- 50% 10% 40% F D C- A+ A+ D F A+ C+
0.79 38% 40% 29% -11 +1 0.81 21% 0.3 .06 12% .20 62% .12 1.27 81% 60% 24% +7 +2 1.21 39% 0.9 .34 12% .53 56% .30
Nov
15		 NJIT D+ C- B- F F+ 30% 8% 62% B- D- C F D B- C B- C+ F F F F F 31% 11% 58% F F C D C- A+ F B+ F
1.05 56% 40% 26% -8 +1 0.89 35% 0.8 .28 13% .34 74% .25 1.21 86% 60% 46% +22 +1 1.47 26% 1.0 .26 23% .64 66% .42
Nov
24		 East Texas A&M F B+ D C- C+ 40% 7% 53% B- C+ B F C- F B- F D D F+ A+ F F 29% 17% 54% B- F D A C+ B- A- A+ A
0.97 65% 33% 35% +3 +2 1.12 37% 0.9 .33 30% .34 56% .19 1.05 67% 11% 43% +5 0 1.12 27% 0.7 .19 19% .17 56% .09
Nov
26		 Army D- C- B+ F F 29% 17% 54% C- F C+ A+ A A+ B+ F+ C+ F F A+ D F+ 38% 10% 52% C- D- C+ F+ D+ F F D+ F
1.09 60% 44% 18% -11 0 0.79 33% 1.5 .50 9% .41 68% .28 1.21 67% 0% 36% +1 +1 1.06 28% 1.1 .31 12% .56 73% .41
Dec
2		 Providence D F F A+ D 42% 12% 46% A- C- A+ F C+ F D A+ C- F D+ D+ F F 40% 13% 46% C- F D+ A- B- C A+ D- A+
0.97 29% 17% 48% -5 +1 0.94 46% 0.6 .29 27% .23 82% .19 1.43 67% 43% 58% +21 +1 1.46 38% 1.0 .38 15% .20 82% .16
Dec
10		 Fordham F C C D C- 32% 16% 52% B C F F F D F C- F D- B F F F 41% 15% 43% D- F D+ B- C B C C+ C
0.83 56% 38% 31% -3 0 0.96 17% 0.0 .00 18% .17 67% .11 1.15 53% 57% 45% +8 +1 1.20 36% 0.9 .33 20% .25 69% .17
Dec
22		 Boston College C F B- C+ C- 26% 20% 54% D+ C- B F C- A F B F F+ F F B- F 23% 16% 60% C- F+ F C D- D- F A F
1.01 38% 40% 33% -5 -1 0.90 32% 0.7 .22 10% .18 70% .13 1.19 70% 71% 31% +5 -1 1.12 38% 1.0 .38 12% .47 56% .26
Dec
29		 Minnesota F A- F F F 21% 21% 57% C- F B+ F F F B+ F C A+ B- A+ B- A+ 26% 15% 60% B+ A D+ B+ C B+ A+ A+ A+
0.71 67% 11% 25% -12 -1 0.76 33% 0.3 .10 23% .30 57% .17 0.99 58% 14% 32% -5 0 0.91 33% 0.9 .31 20% .25 50% .12
Jan
2		 Mercyhurst B- C A+ A+ A+ 59% 9% 32% A A+ B- F F+ F D B- D+ C D- F A+ C 35% 28% 37% D C C B C+ B+ F F F
1.16 58% 75% 50% +11 +3 1.30 36% 0.6 .23 23% .33 75% .24 1.05 63% 54% 18% -3 -1 0.93 26% 1.0 .26 19% .38 90% .35
Jan
4		 St. Francis (PA) C- B A+ F F 33% 24% 43% F+ F F A+ C- A+ A+ A- A+ F A F D- F+ 22% 24% 53% B D- B F F F+ F F F
1.14 69% 50% 24% 0 -1 1.00 23% 1.6 .37 13% .52 79% .41 1.18 45% 50% 38% +4 -2 1.06 23% 1.7 .40 15% .49 83% .41
Jan
8		 Chicago St. F+ B+ A+ F F+ 24% 10% 67% D+ F+ C- F F+ D A+ D+ A+ C+ A+ F F D- 40% 11% 49% F F A+ A+ A+ A- D- F F
1.06 70% 50% 29% -1 0 1.00 34% 0.8 .29 21% .65 74% .48 0.95 39% 60% 41% 0 +1 1.04 10% 0.7 .07 20% .32 82% .26
Jan
10		 New Haven F D F F F 35% 6% 58% B F C- F F B- A- D+ B+ D+ F A- D F 46% 18% 36% F+ F A+ F B- D+ F A+ F
0.88 53% 0% 21% -15 +2 0.75 26% 0.6 .17 14% .34 72% .24 1.04 78% 29% 36% +8 +1 1.21 13% 1.3 .17 18% .51 54% .27
Jan
17		 LIU Brooklyn F C C- F F 37% 19% 44% D+ F C- F F C- A+ F A- C F B- C F+ 57% 24% 20% D- F+ D+ A+ B+ C+ A A+ A+
0.91 56% 38% 21% -9 0 0.84 33% 0.6 .21 19% .49 58% .29 1.02 69% 36% 33% +6 +1 1.15 37% 0.7 .27 22% .20 50% .10
Jan
19		 Wagner C F A B B- 19% 44% 36% F D+ A C+ A F A+ B A+ D+ C- C B C- 36% 36% 29% A C+ A+ F B+ F D F F
1.17 43% 50% 38% +5 -4 1.03 41% 1.1 .45 24% .57 76% .43 1.05 56% 38% 31% -2 -2 0.93 19% 1.4 .27 14% .32 88% .28
Jan
23		 Central Connecticut St. A A F A+ A+ 40% 20% 40% D A F C- F+ A D- C+ D- D A- F B D+ 36% 34% 30% C- D+ F B- D B- C- F+ D
1.29 70% 20% 50% +11 0 1.24 21% 1.0 .21 9% .20 82% .17 1.12 50% 60% 31% +3 -2 1.05 36% 0.9 .32 19% .27 85% .23
Jan
26		 Le Moyne D+ D+ D F F 40% 13% 46% B- F B A- A- A+ A+ A+ A+ F C- F F F 44% 10% 46% F+ F A+ C A D F F F
1.11 52% 29% 8% -21 +1 0.62 37% 1.2 .46 8% .50 84% .42 1.31 61% 50% 63% +23 +2 1.51 14% 1.0 .14 18% .51 79% .40
Jan
29		 Stonehill D- F C+ F F 36% 34% 30% F F B+ A- A C F A+ F C- A- F A+ C 40% 29% 31% B+ C D- C- D F+ D+ F D-
0.95 42% 39% 19% -12 -2 0.74 34% 1.2 .42 12% .04 100% .04 0.97 44% 54% 21% -7 -1 0.87 32% 0.9 .29 17% .26 77% .20
Jan
31		 Wagner D D+ A+ A+ B+ 52% 9% 39% B+ A- F F F D F F F D+ A A D- B 46% 13% 40% F C+ B- C+ B- F F F F
1.05 54% 60% 48% +8 +2 1.22 21% 0.4 .09 16% .19 36% .07 1.09 42% 29% 38% -6 +1 0.92 30% 1.0 .30 13% .39 83% .32
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Stonehill B- B- C+ C- C+ 37% 27% 37% D C B+ A A C- B- A+ A- C- C B- A+ C+ 26% 35% 40% A+ B A- D- C+ D F A F
1.16 61% 38% 33% +1 -1 1.02 34% 1.3 .44 13% .31 82% .25 0.91 55% 33% 24% -9 -3 0.79 22% 1.0 .22 19% .50 62% .31
Feb
7		 Mercyhurst F+ A+ F F D+ 38% 15% 46% C D+ B+ F D+ F D- A+ C C+ D- D+ A+ C- 24% 39% 37% A- C A- B A- F A- C+ B+
1.01 80% 17% 22% -3 +1 0.97 39% 0.7 .29 24% .32 85% .27 0.96 64% 44% 24% -2 -3 0.91 20% 1.0 .20 11% .15 71% .10
Feb
12		 St. Francis (PA) F A+ A+ F D- 28% 28% 44% F F+ D- A+ B+ F A+ F A- B B+ A A+ A+ 37% 16% 47% D- A+ F A+ C F+ F C- F
1.01 80% 60% 19% +2 -2 1.03 28% 1.8 .48 23% .56 57% .32 0.90 50% 25% 22% -14 0 0.76 36% 0.7 .24 15% .36 70% .25
Feb
14		 Central Connecticut St. F F F F F 38% 14% 48% C- F A+ B A+ F+ A+ B- A+ D- D+ F+ A C 18% 49% 33% A+ B- F A+ C+ F F F F
1.01 44% 17% 10% -26 +1 0.52 44% 1.1 .49 16% .48 83% .40 1.12 63% 45% 27% +1 -5 0.93 34% 0.7 .25 12% .34 94% .32
Feb
19		 Chicago St. C- F B+ B+ F 41% 27% 32% F+ F B C- B- B C- F F+ D- B- F+ F F 39% 32% 29% D F A- B B+ C- F C- F
1.14 41% 45% 38% -3 -1 0.95 41% 1.1 .44 17% .32 64% .21 1.12 50% 46% 42% +3 -1 1.05 22% 0.8 .19 15% .38 76% .29
Feb
21		 New Haven B A+ D B- B+ 39% 18% 43% C B+ B D- C+ C C+ D+ C F F B- F F 30% 20% 50% C+ F A F F F F A+ C-
1.23 75% 33% 36% +7 0 1.18 33% 1.0 .33 16% .28 73% .21 1.34 85% 33% 59% +26 -1 1.52 14% 2.3 .32 13% .36 50% .18



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.5 2.8 3.3 3rd
4th 7.5 1.2 8.7 4th
5th 3.2 19.0 0.1 22.3 5th
6th 40.9 6.6 47.5 6th
7th 18.1 18.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 62.2 33.6 4.2 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 4.2% 10.0% 10.0% 16.0 0.4 3.8
9-7 33.6% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 2.7 30.9
8-8 62.2% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 3.2 59.0
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 16.0 93.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4%
Lose Out 31.7%