Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.9 #146
Expected Predictive Rating -0.7 #178
Pace 71.7 #100
Improvement +1.5 #120

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #244 C D+ D+ C B-
Defense #78 B- C+ B B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #99 1.18 #141 +2.3 #106
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #273 0.75 #178 -1.6 #263
Three Pointers 42% #161 0.97 #242 -0.4 #200
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #165 +0.4 #163
Freethrows 0.28 #247 76% #74 0.22 #187
Second Chance 29.4% #221 0.93 #300 0.27 #269
Turnovers 18.4% #292
Total Offense -2.6 #244

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #281 1.27 #315 -0.2 #185
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #223 0.73 #130 +0.9 #121
Three Pointers 46% #53 0.80 #2 +2.6 #78
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #71 +3.3 #70
Freethrows 0.25 #41 72% #167 0.18 #47
Second Chance 27.9% #79 1.02 #175 0.28 #108
Turnovers 19.5% #45
Total Defense +3.5 #78

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #76 0.0% #166
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.9% #185 -6.4% #61
Possession Length 17.3 #184 16.9 #118
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #101 0.23 #339
Improvement -1.3 #262 +2.9 #40

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.5 15.2
.500 or above 8.5% 13.3% 2.3%
.500 or above in Conference 11.7% 18.0% 3.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNLV (Home) - 56.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 6
Quad 22 - 62 - 12
Quad 35 - 47 - 16
Quad 47 - 213 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 302 South Carolina Upstate L 66 - 67 87% +4  0 - 1 -12 -10 F A- D- -2 D D- A+
 Sat, Nov 8 255 Long Beach St. W 82 - 62 81% +10  1 - 1 +12 +3 A+ F F +8 A A- A
 Wed, Nov 12 138 UC San Diego L 73 - 78 60% -4  1 - 2 -7 -1 C+ D D- -6 D D- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 100 Utah Valley W 75 - 74 46% -4  2 - 2 +3 +3 A+ D F -1 C B C+
 Tue, Nov 18 105 Stephen F. Austin W 80 - 78 48% -1  3 - 2 +3 +12 A+ B- D- -8 C F A-
 Fri, Nov 21 218 New Orleans W 85 - 76 75% +4  4 - 2 +3 -1 C- A+ F +3 B B- A-
 Wed, Nov 26 283 Pepperdine W 76 - 53 77% +7  5 - 2 +16 +3 B C+ A+ +13 A+ D+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 319 Cal St. Bakersfield L 71 - 76 89% +4  5 - 3 -18 -9 F A+ F -9 C A- F
 Sat, Dec 6 22 @Arkansas L 58 - 82 5% -15  5 - 4 -5 -11 F F F +7 B- A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 10 187 @Cal St. Northridge L 87 - 89 49% -4  5 - 5 -1 +14 A+ F+ C -15 F A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 128 @UNLV L 72 - 84 35% -4  5 - 6 0 - 1 -7 +2 C- B C+ -9 F F B
 Tue, Dec 30 38 Utah St. L 63 - 72 18% -7  5 - 7 0 - 2 +2 -10 D+ F C- +12 B A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 71 Nevada L 65 - 66 34% +2  5 - 8 0 - 3 +4 -1 B B- F +5 A- C+ B
 Tue, Jan 6 242 @San Jose St. W 70 - 55 59% +11  6 - 8 1 - 3 +13 +2 C C F +13 B A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 43 @San Diego St. L 52 - 71 10% -15  6 - 9 1 - 4 -4 -14 D- F D+ +10 A+ F D+
 Tue, Jan 13 103 Colorado St. W 79 - 69 47% +7  7 - 9 2 - 4 +12 +14 C B- A -1 B- A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 17 111 Wyoming W 63 - 60 51% -2  8 - 9 3 - 4 +4 -0 C+ F A- +4 B A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 45 @New Mexico L 74 - 83 10% -11  8 - 10 3 - 5 +6 +1 C+ C F +6 A+ F+ D+
 Sat, Jan 24 65 Grand Canyon L 57 - 68 32% -5  8 - 11 3 - 6 -5 -6 F+ F C +0 A+ F C
 Sat, Jan 31 350 @Air Force W 79 - 62 83% +8  9 - 11 4 - 6 +8 +3 B- F B- +4 B- B B+
 Tue, Feb 3 128 UNLV W 77 - 75 57%
 Sat, Feb 7 71 @Nevada L 66 - 76 17%
 Tue, Feb 10 38 @Utah St. L 66 - 82 7%
 Sat, Feb 14 350 Air Force W 75 - 59 93%
 Tue, Feb 17 111 @Wyoming L 69 - 75 29%
 Sat, Feb 21 45 New Mexico L 71 - 79 24%
 Tue, Feb 24 103 @Colorado St. L 66 - 73 26%
 Sat, Feb 28 62 Boise St. L 68 - 73 31%
 Tue, Mar 3 242 San Jose St. W 75 - 67 78%
 Sat, Mar 7 65 @Grand Canyon L 65 - 76 16%
Totals 13 - 17 8 - 12 +1 -3 C D+ D+ +3 B- C+ B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 4.0 1.8 0.2 8.1 6th
7th 0.1 3.5 8.8 3.8 0.4 16.6 7th
8th 0.1 3.0 12.7 5.8 0.5 0.0 22.0 8th
9th 0.0 2.4 12.5 9.3 0.7 24.9 9th
10th 0.1 3.1 11.5 10.5 1.5 0.0 26.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.2 3.6 14.0 26.1 27.1 17.3 8.4 2.7 0.5 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.1% 0.1
12-8 0.5% 2.9% 2.9% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.5
11-9 2.7% 0.6% 0.6% 12.0 0.0 2.7
10-10 8.4% 0.9% 0.9% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3
9-11 17.3% 0.3% 0.3% 13.2 0.0 0.0 17.3
8-12 27.1% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.1 27.0
7-13 26.1% 0.3% 0.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 26.0
6-14 14.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.0
5-15 3.6% 3.6
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 13.8 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%