Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.0 132
Results Rating +0.0 157
Pace 71.1 114
Improvement +1.2 140

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 175 C+ C- C- C C+
Defense C+ 105 B- C+ B B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 126 C+ 61% 106 +2.1 100
2 Pt. Jumpers 39% 166 C 38% 183 -0.8 219
Three Pointers 41% 173 C- 33% 219 -0.4 191
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 133 C +0.5 152
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.04 142
Second Chance C 29.8% 201 C- 1.00 214 C- 0.30 206
Turnovers C- 17.7% 247
Freethrows C- 0.30 205 B- 75% 85 C 0.22 158
Total Offense C -0.5 175

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 49% 160 B- 9.6% 103
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 16% 309 D+ 6.9% 294
Three Pointers C 85% 181 C- 1.1% 244
Total C 55% 196 C 5.6% 190

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 290 D 63% 317 -0.3 163
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 225 C 38% 164 -0.8 126
Three Pointers 46% 38 A 28% 4 -1.5 119
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 157 B- -2.4 84
1st FG Attempt B- 0.97 98
Second Chance B- 28.1% 91 C- 1.07 248 C+ 0.30 154
Turnovers B 19.1% 56
Freethrows B 0.26 45 C- 73% 223 B 0.19 56
Total Defense C+ +2.5 105

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B+ 40% 34 D- 6.2% 343
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 176 C 4.9% 170
Three Pointers C+ 82% 125 D+ 0.5% 255
Total B 50% 72 D- 3.3% 336

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.3 169 16.9 115
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 118 0.22 332
Improvement +2.5 #81 -1.3 #265

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 155 133 113
Results Rating Rank 221 156 128
Conference Record 6 - 14 8 - 12 9 - 11
Conference Finish 10 10 8
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.6 13.3 15.1
.500 or above 1% 4% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 2% 7% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Colorado St. (Away) - 25.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 7
Quad 22 - 62 - 13
Quad 35 - 36 - 16
Quad 47 - 213 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 297 South Carolina Upstate L 66 - 67 88% +4  72% 0 - 1 D- -12 F -13 F B+ D+ C+ +1 D D- A+
 Sat, Nov 8 263 Long Beach St. W 82 - 62 84% +10  77% 1 - 1 B+ +11 C +1 A+ F F A +10 A A- A
 Wed, Nov 12 134 UC San Diego L 73 - 78 62% -4  18% 1 - 2 D+ -6 C- -2 C+ D F+ D+ -4 D D- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 95 Utah Valley W 75 - 74 46% -4  10% 2 - 2 C+ +4 C+ +2 A+ D D- B- +2 C- B C+
 Tue, Nov 18 102 Stephen F. Austin W 80 - 78 51% -1  33% 3 - 2 C+ +4 B+ +9 A+ B- D D -5 C F A
 Fri, Nov 21 206 New Orleans W 85 - 76 76% +4  88% 4 - 2 C+ +4 D+ -3 D+ A+ F+ B+ +5 B C+ A-
 Wed, Nov 26 281 Pepperdine W 76 - 53 80% +7  44% 5 - 2 A- +16 C- -1 B- C+ A+ A+ +18 A+ C- A+
 Sun, Nov 30 332 Cal St. Bakersfield L 71 - 76 93% +4  72% 5 - 3 F -19 F -12 F A+ F D- -7 C- B+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 17 @Arkansas L 58 - 82 5% -15  0% 5 - 4 C- -3 F -13 F D- F A+ +12 B A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 10 159 @Cal St. Northridge L 87 - 89 46% -4  19% 5 - 5 C +1 A +12 A+ F+ C+ F -11 F A+ C
 Sat, Dec 20 118 @UNLV L 72 - 84 35% -4  18% 5 - 6 0 - 1 D+ -6 C- -2 D+ B+ C D+ -5 F F B+
 Tue, Dec 30 28 Utah St. L 63 - 72 17% -7  7% 5 - 7 0 - 2 C+ +3 F -13 D F D A+ +17 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 78 Nevada L 65 - 66 40% +2  82% 5 - 8 0 - 3 C+ +4 D+ -4 B B- F A- +7 B+ C+ B-
 Tue, Jan 6 218 @San Jose St. W 70 - 55 59% +11  97% 6 - 8 1 - 3 A- +15 C -0 C+ C+ F A+ +16 B A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 45 @San Diego St. L 52 - 71 13% -15  0% 6 - 9 1 - 4 C- -5 F -16 D- F D+ A+ +12 A+ F D
 Tue, Jan 13 91 Colorado St. W 79 - 69 46% +7  92% 7 - 9 2 - 4 B+ +13 A- +11 C B- A B- +3 B A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 17 100 Wyoming W 63 - 60 50% -2  17% 8 - 9 3 - 4 B- +5 D+ -3 C+ F A- A +9 B+ A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 47 @New Mexico L 74 - 83 13% -11  1% 8 - 10 3 - 5 B- +5 D+ -3 C+ C+ F A +9 A+ F D
 Sat, Jan 24 62 Grand Canyon L 57 - 68 36% -5  3% 8 - 11 3 - 6 D+ -5 F+ -9 F F C B- +3 A+ F C
 Sat, Jan 31 351 @Air Force W 79 - 62 88% +8  86% 9 - 11 4 - 6 B- +6 C- -1 C+ F C+ A- +7 B B B
 Tue, Feb 3 118 UNLV W 98 - 96 58% -4  17% 10 - 11 5 - 6 C+ +2 B+ +8 A+ D+ D+ D- -7 F C- A+
 Sat, Feb 7 78 @Nevada L 59 - 69 21% +2  67% 10 - 12 5 - 7 C +1 D -6 F+ D+ A B+ +5 A+ D- D
 Tue, Feb 10 28 @Utah St. L 78 - 91 8% -10  14% 10 - 13 5 - 8 B- +5 A- +10 C- A A+ D -5 C+ F D
 Sat, Feb 14 351 Air Force W 93 - 63 95% +17  98% 11 - 13 6 - 8 B+ +13 B+ +8 B- A+ B B +4 C+ A- B+
 Tue, Feb 17 100 @Wyoming L 82 - 92 28% -2  38% 11 - 14 6 - 9 C- -2 A+ +15 B+ A+ B+ F -18 F F D
 Sat, Feb 21 47 New Mexico L 78 - 80 27% +8  76% 11 - 15 6 - 10 B- +6 A- +10 A+ B- B+ D+ -4 C- B+ D+
 Tue, Feb 24 91 @Colorado St. L 68 - 75 25%
 Sat, Feb 28 64 Boise St. L 71 - 75 37%
 Tue, Mar 3 218 San Jose St. W 77 - 69 79%
 Sat, Mar 7 62 @Grand Canyon L 66 - 76 18%
Totals 13 - 17 8 - 12 +2 C -1 A+ C C+ C+ +2 C- B- C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C+ C C- C 40% 39% 41% C+ C+ C C- C- C- C- B- C C+ D C A B- 35% 19% 46% C B- B- C- C+ B B C- B
1.08 61% 38% 33% +1 0 1.04 30% 1.0 .30 18% .30 75% .22 1.05 63% 38% 28% -2 0 0.97 28% 1.1 .30 19% .26 73% .22
Nov
5		 South Carolina Upstate F F D+ F F 41% 12% 47% B- F C+ A B+ D+ A- D+ B+ C+ C- F A- D- 43% 25% 32% C D C- F+ D- A+ D- B+ D+
0.93 43% 33% 21% -16 +1 0.73 33% 1.4 .44 17% .37 68% .26 0.95 58% 55% 29% +1 0 1.05 30% 1.1 .33 31% .35 65% .23
Nov
8		 Long Beach St. C A A A A+ 40% 9% 51% B+ A+ B+ F F F A+ C A+ A C+ D A+ A 30% 26% 43% C- A B+ A A- A F D- F
1.15 71% 50% 41% +11 +2 1.28 36% 0.6 .21 22% .50 75% .38 0.87 57% 42% 20% -8 -1 0.83 22% 0.9 .19 22% .41 78% .32
Nov
12		 UC San Diego C- D B+ B- C+ 41% 18% 41% C+ C+ B+ F D F+ A+ A- A+ D+ F F B+ D- 27% 10% 63% B- D F C D- A+ C+ A+ A
1.03 50% 44% 35% -2 0 1.00 35% 0.7 .24 20% .37 76% .28 1.10 86% 60% 30% +6 +1 1.15 34% 1.0 .34 25% .24 46% .11
Nov
15		 Utah Valley C+ A- A+ A+ A+ 45% 18% 36% B- A+ F A+ D D- A D B B- C B- D C- 50% 14% 36% C C- A+ F B C+ F A+ F
1.06 65% 50% 44% +11 +1 1.25 12% 2.0 .24 24% .41 68% .28 1.04 59% 33% 38% +2 +2 1.09 22% 1.6 .34 21% .50 54% .27
Nov
18		 Stephen F. Austin B+ A A A+ A+ 55% 21% 23% B A+ B- B- B- D A- F C- D F+ A- B+ C+ 41% 23% 36% D- C F D F A A+ A+ A+
1.18 69% 50% 45% +13 +1 1.30 32% 1.1 .36 19% .35 58% .20 1.15 65% 31% 30% -1 0 1.00 45% 1.1 .50 18% .11 50% .05
Nov
21		 New Orleans D+ B F+ F D 44% 6% 50% A- D+ F+ A+ A+ F+ A B+ A+ B+ F A+ A+ A- 43% 16% 41% F B B D+ C+ A- F A+ F
1.10 62% 33% 25% -5 +2 0.96 27% 2.0 .55 19% .45 79% .35 0.98 68% 25% 19% -7 +1 0.90 31% 1.1 .33 23% .52 65% .34
Nov
26		 Pepperdine C- A+ F D C+ 44% 7% 48% B B- F A+ C+ A+ F F F A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 30% 24% 46% B- A+ F A+ C- A+ A+ B+ A+
1.11 75% 0% 31% +2 +2 1.11 22% 1.7 .38 10% .16 50% .08 0.77 47% 25% 22% -15 -1 0.70 40% 0.7 .29 25% .19 70% .14
Nov
30		 Cal St. Bakersfield F C- F F F 41% 10% 49% B+ F B+ A+ A+ F C- A- C+ D- F F A+ C- 34% 38% 28% B- C- A+ C- B+ F D F F
1.00 57% 0% 16% -17 +2 0.71 44% 1.3 .58 22% .34 79% .27 1.07 67% 50% 7% -4 -3 0.89 23% 1.0 .23 14% .39 96% .38
Dec
6		 Arkansas F D D+ F F 42% 12% 46% A- F C+ F D- F C- A C+ A+ F+ B D B- 26% 26% 48% A+ B A+ A+ A+ C- B+ A+ A
0.79 50% 33% 17% -16 +1 0.73 29% 0.8 .24 23% .23 77% .18 1.12 73% 33% 39% +7 -2 1.12 26% 1.0 .26 11% .26 65% .17
Dec
10		 Cal St. Northridge A B+ D A+ A+ 37% 11% 52% B+ A+ D F F+ C+ D A+ C F F+ F F F 48% 11% 41% D F B A+ A+ C A- F D+
1.22 65% 33% 46% +12 +1 1.28 23% 0.9 .20 15% .27 88% .23 1.25 65% 67% 45% +14 +2 1.33 29% 0.6 .18 17% .24 93% .22
Dec
20		 UNLV C- F C A- D 51% 15% 34% B+ D+ B- B+ B+ C F B+ F D+ F F D F 42% 11% 47% F+ F A+ F F B+ D F F
1.05 44% 38% 39% -5 +2 0.96 33% 1.2 .41 17% .23 77% .18 1.22 74% 60% 38% +12 +2 1.29 18% 2.3 .41 19% .39 86% .34
Dec
30		 Utah St. F B- D+ F D 33% 24% 43% C D D- F F D A- A+ A+ A+ D+ B- A A- 51% 12% 37% C- B+ A A+ A+ A+ F+ B D
0.83 59% 33% 23% -8 -1 0.84 24% 0.2 .05 24% .38 82% .31 0.95 64% 33% 28% -1 +2 1.04 29% 0.7 .21 26% .39 68% .27
Jan
3		 Nevada D+ C C- B- B- 50% 18% 32% B B B+ D+ B- F F A+ D- A- B- A B+ A 39% 22% 39% D+ B+ A+ F C+ B- B+ A+ A
1.00 55% 38% 36% -1 +1 1.02 33% 1.1 .37 23% .22 82% .18 1.02 53% 27% 32% -6 0 0.90 26% 1.3 .34 15% .33 67% .22
Jan
6		 San Jose St. C C+ A D+ C 48% 17% 35% C+ C+ A- F+ C+ F C+ D C A+ F A+ A- B 20% 26% 54% C+ B A+ B- A+ B- A+ B- A+
1.10 64% 50% 31% +3 +1 1.11 42% 1.0 .42 25% .29 71% .21 0.87 100% 8% 30% -3 -2 0.92 18% 1.0 .18 17% .13 71% .10
Jan
10		 San Diego St. F F D- D- D- 26% 19% 54% C- D- F F F D+ F A+ F A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 34% 20% 46% D A+ B- F F D A+ B- A+
0.70 40% 27% 29% -11 -1 0.79 13% 0.0 .00 23% .12 100% .12 0.96 60% 25% 15% -15 0 0.71 30% 1.8 .53 15% .19 75% .14
Jan
13		 Colorado St. A- C F+ B C 37% 22% 41% C+ C B- B- B- A A+ A+ A+ B- F F A- B- 31% 16% 53% B- B B- A+ A+ C- A B- A
1.26 59% 30% 37% 0 0 1.02 30% 1.2 .37 11% .43 96% .41 1.10 73% 50% 31% +4 0 1.10 30% 0.6 .18 18% .23 75% .17
Jan
17		 Wyoming D+ C+ A+ F C 57% 12% 31% B+ C+ B+ F F A- A+ D+ A A D A- A+ B 42% 24% 33% A- B+ D A+ A+ A+ A- F C+
1.04 58% 60% 23% -2 +2 1.02 32% 0.3 .09 13% .51 67% .34 0.99 63% 36% 27% -2 0 0.98 39% 0.4 .15 23% .26 92% .24
Jan
21		 New Mexico D+ D- B C C 29% 19% 52% C+ C+ C+ C C+ F A+ A+ A+ A C A A+ A+ 41% 11% 48% C A+ B- F F D A A+ A+
0.94 50% 44% 32% -3 0 0.96 28% 1.0 .28 28% .46 85% .39 1.05 58% 29% 23% -9 +1 0.86 28% 1.5 .43 13% .22 60% .13
Jan
24		 Grand Canyon F+ F C F F 29% 27% 44% C- F D+ F F C A+ B A+ B- D+ B- A+ A+ 36% 20% 44% B- A+ F F+ F C F C F
0.86 43% 38% 19% -14 -1 0.71 23% 0.4 .10 18% .48 77% .37 1.03 63% 33% 10% -15 0 0.71 41% 1.2 .51 17% .45 76% .34
Jan
31		 Air Force C- C B B+ C+ 28% 20% 52% C- C+ F+ F+ F C+ D+ D- D A- B A+ C B 40% 15% 45% C B C+ A B B A+ F+ A-
1.11 60% 45% 39% +6 -1 1.13 22% 0.9 .19 14% .28 65% .18 0.87 52% 13% 33% -7 +1 0.91 21% 0.9 .18 24% .18 70% .13
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 UNLV B+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 30% 41% 30% F A+ F+ A D+ D+ A+ C+ A+ D- F F D F 32% 23% 45% B+ F F B+ C- A+ F C+ F
1.23 85% 39% 62% +20 -3 1.36 22% 1.3 .30 19% .68 73% .50 1.21 87% 55% 38% +16 -1 1.32 41% 0.8 .31 24% .60 69% .41
Feb
7		 Nevada D F C+ F F+ 27% 20% 53% D+ F+ F A+ D+ A D+ B C- B+ B- A- A+ A+ 35% 21% 44% D+ A+ C+ F D- D F+ C D-
0.93 38% 40% 27% -10 -1 0.80 14% 2.0 .29 13% .29 75% .22 1.09 53% 30% 19% -13 0 0.75 33% 1.3 .44 11% .44 76% .34
Feb
10		 Utah St. A- A- F D C- 33% 23% 44% C C- B+ A- A A+ A- A- A D C+ A+ D B- 37% 6% 57% C- C+ B+ F F D C+ F C-
1.11 65% 17% 30% -5 -1 0.90 38% 1.1 .43 14% .38 78% .30 1.30 60% 0% 39% +3 +2 1.11 31% 2.0 .63 13% .31 79% .25
Feb
14		 Air Force B+ A A+ D- B 28% 28% 43% D- B- C- A+ A+ B A+ C+ A+ B F+ B+ B- C 24% 22% 53% A+ C+ B+ A+ A- B+ B- F D
1.28 73% 60% 30% +8 -2 1.15 29% 1.9 .55 12% .48 71% .34 0.86 67% 27% 31% -3 -1 0.94 18% 0.8 .15 25% .27 80% .22
Feb
17		 Wyoming A+ C+ F+ A+ A- 47% 21% 32% C- B+ A A+ A+ B+ B C+ B F C+ F F F 38% 12% 50% C F D F F D A+ D- A+
1.26 59% 30% 47% +5 +1 1.13 35% 1.2 .42 14% .43 71% .30 1.41 55% 83% 42% +10 +1 1.25 40% 1.5 .60 14% .20 82% .16
Feb
21		 New Mexico A- A+ A C A+ 37% 22% 41% B- A+ B+ D+ B- B+ F F F D+ C+ F F+ C 55% 15% 31% D+ C- B+ B+ B+ D+ A F B
1.16 75% 50% 32% +8 0 1.17 33% 0.9 .30 16% .16 56% .09 1.19 57% 50% 41% +4 +2 1.15 27% 0.9 .23 13% .22 85% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.2 0.9 1.1 6th
7th 2.7 0.7 3.4 7th
8th 1.0 6.5 0.1 7.7 8th
9th 0.0 5.0 19.7 3.6 28.4 9th
10th 9.0 34.9 15.5 0.1 59.5 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 9.0 39.9 36.2 13.2 1.7 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 1.7% 0.8% 0.8% 11.8 0.0 0.0 1.6
9-11 13.2% 0.3% 0.3% 13.0 0.0 13.2
8-12 36.2% 0.3% 0.3% 14.8 0.0 0.1 36.1
7-13 39.9% 0.1% 0.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 39.8
6-14 9.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 14.6 99.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 6.2%