Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.2#273
Expected Predictive Rating-5.9#270
Pace80.6#8
Improvement-0.8#233

Offense
Total Offense-6.1#336
First Shot-4.8#312
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#269
Layup/Dunks+0.2#173
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#194
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#299
Freethrows-0.5#216
Improvement+1.0#108

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#168
First Shot-0.8#197
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#117
Layups/Dunks-2.3#275
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#265
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#209
Freethrows+2.8#22
Improvement-1.8#305
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 16.0 15.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.4% 1.9% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 53.2% 32.4% 55.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNLV (Away) - 10.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 6
Quad 21 - 81 - 14
Quad 32 - 73 - 22
Quad 45 - 38 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 335   Sacramento St. W 64-57 77%     1 - 0 -6.7 -12.3 +5.7
  Nov 13, 2024 146   @ UC Santa Barbara L 86-91 18%     1 - 1 -1.5 +2.1 -2.9
  Nov 16, 2024 260   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 58-74 35%     1 - 2 -18.3 -17.5 -0.2
  Nov 20, 2024 340   Prairie View W 94-83 78%     2 - 2 -3.3 +0.0 -4.6
  Nov 23, 2024 258   @ Long Beach St. W 72-69 35%     3 - 2 +0.7 -5.0 +5.7
  Nov 26, 2024 74   Washington St. L 73-84 10%     3 - 3 -3.4 -5.6 +3.7
  Nov 27, 2024 158   California Baptist L 81-86 2OT 28%     3 - 4 -5.0 -9.2 +5.1
  Dec 04, 2024 38   San Diego St. L 62-84 9%     3 - 5 0 - 1 -13.2 -10.4 -0.6
  Dec 07, 2024 72   @ Santa Clara L 66-81 7%     3 - 6 -4.3 -7.9 +4.7
  Dec 11, 2024 42   @ BYU L 67-95 4%     3 - 7 -13.6 -5.9 -5.4
  Dec 14, 2024 316   San Diego W 73-65 71%     4 - 7 -3.9 -3.9 -0.1
  Dec 21, 2024 158   California Baptist L 69-86 38%     4 - 8 -20.0 -4.6 -16.1
  Dec 28, 2024 106   @ UNLV L 65-79 10%    
  Dec 31, 2024 64   New Mexico L 77-88 14%    
  Jan 04, 2025 47   @ Utah St. L 67-87 3%    
  Jan 07, 2025 97   @ Colorado St. L 66-80 9%    
  Jan 11, 2025 60   Nevada L 65-77 12%    
  Jan 17, 2025 269   Air Force W 70-67 60%    
  Jan 20, 2025 64   @ New Mexico L 74-91 5%    
  Jan 25, 2025 97   Colorado St. L 69-77 23%    
  Jan 28, 2025 159   @ Wyoming L 68-77 20%    
  Feb 01, 2025 58   @ Boise St. L 65-84 5%    
  Feb 04, 2025 162   San Jose St. L 73-76 39%    
  Feb 07, 2025 47   Utah St. L 70-84 10%    
  Feb 11, 2025 60   @ Nevada L 62-80 5%    
  Feb 15, 2025 106   UNLV L 68-76 25%    
  Feb 18, 2025 38   @ San Diego St. L 60-81 3%    
  Feb 22, 2025 269   @ Air Force L 67-70 38%    
  Mar 01, 2025 58   Boise St. L 68-81 13%    
  Mar 04, 2025 159   Wyoming L 71-74 39%    
  Mar 08, 2025 162   @ San Jose St. L 70-79 21%    
Projected Record 8 - 23 4 - 16




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 2.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 2.4 2.1 0.9 0.1 6.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 4.1 6.1 4.2 1.3 0.1 0.0 16.7 9th
10th 0.5 4.8 11.3 11.4 5.6 1.3 0.1 0.0 35.0 10th
11th 3.4 10.4 13.3 8.8 2.6 0.4 0.0 38.9 11th
Total 3.4 10.8 18.1 21.0 18.3 13.1 8.0 4.3 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0
11-9 0.1% 0.1
10-10 0.3% 0.3
9-11 0.8% 0.8
8-12 1.9% 1.9
7-13 4.3% 4.3
6-14 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.0
5-15 13.1% 13.1
4-16 18.3% 18.3
3-17 21.0% 21.0
2-18 18.1% 18.1
1-19 10.8% 10.8
0-20 3.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.4
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.1%