Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.2 #157
Expected Predictive Rating -2.6 #213
Pace 71.5 #113
Improvement +0.8 #133

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #222 C+ C D- D+ B
Defense #109 C B+ B+ B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #76 1.23 #102 +3.9 #60
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #285 0.68 #269 -2.4 #300
Three Pointers 42% #160 0.99 #211 +0.1 #174
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #140 +1.6 #137
Freethrows 15.6 #275 73% #162 11.4 #251
Second Chance 30.8% #184 1.00 #242 0.31 #207
Turnovers 19.2% #317
Total Offense -2.1 #222

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #262 1.32 #335 -1.2 #226
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #239 0.75 #166 +0.9 #136
Three Pointers 46% #51 0.88 #40 +0.5 #166
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #170 +0.1 #170
Freethrows 15.7 #100 72% #149 11.2 #270
Second Chance 25.4% #28 1.03 #179 0.26 #52
Turnovers 19.4% #50
Total Defense +2.0 #109

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.0% #64 0.2% #178
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.0% #158 -0.5% #172
Possession Length 15.9 #61 16.6 #75
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #142 0.22 #316
Improvement -1.2 #263 +2.0 #66

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 12.0 13.6
.500 or above 6.8% 19.9% 5.3%
.500 or above in Conference 8.8% 25.6% 7.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 1.1% 2.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego St. (Away) - 9.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 21 - 62 - 11
Quad 34 - 66 - 16
Quad 46 - 312 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 287 South Carolina Upstate L 66 - 67 82%  +4  0 - 1 -11 -11 F A- F +0 D+ D A+
 Sat, Nov 8 262 Long Beach St. W 82 - 62 79%  +10  1 - 1 +11 +3 A+ F F +8 A+ A A+
 Wed, Nov 12 108 UC San Diego L 73 - 78 44%  -4  1 - 2 -4 -1 B+ F F -2 D+ C- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 101 Utah Valley W 75 - 74 42%  -4  2 - 2 +3 +4 A+ D+ F -1 C B C
 Tue, Nov 18 112 Stephen F. Austin W 80 - 78 46%  -1  3 - 2 +3 +12 A+ B+ F -9 C- F A
 Fri, Nov 21 236 New Orleans W 85 - 76 75%  +4  4 - 2 +2 -2 C A+ F +3 B B- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 274 Pepperdine W 76 - 53 73%  +7  5 - 2 +16 +4 B- B- A+ +13 A+ D+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 294 Cal St. Bakersfield L 71 - 76 83%  +4  5 - 3 -15 -7 F A+ F -8 C- A+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 19 @Arkansas L 58 - 82 4%  -15  5 - 4 -5 -11 F F F +7 C+ A+ D
 Wed, Dec 10 211 @Cal St. Northridge L 87 - 89 48%  -4  5 - 5 -2 +12 A+ F C- -14 F A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 142 @UNLV L 72 - 84 34%  -4  5 - 6 0 - 1 -8 +3 C C B- -11 F F B
 Tue, Dec 30 35 Utah St. L 63 - 72 15%  -7  5 - 7 0 - 2 +2 -10 D+ F D+ +13 A- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 90 Nevada L 65 - 66 36%  +2  5 - 8 0 - 3 +2 -2 B C F +4 B B A-
 Tue, Jan 6 221 @San Jose St. W 70 - 55 50%  +11  6 - 8 1 - 3 +15 +3 C C- F +13 B+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 52 @San Diego St. L 66 - 80 10% 
 Tue, Jan 13 94 Colorado St. L 70 - 73 40% 
 Sat, Jan 17 95 Wyoming L 72 - 75 40% 
 Wed, Jan 21 56 @New Mexico L 68 - 81 12% 
 Sat, Jan 24 83 Grand Canyon L 69 - 73 35% 
 Sat, Jan 31 334 @Air Force W 70 - 62 76% 
 Tue, Feb 3 142 UNLV W 77 - 75 57% 
 Sat, Feb 7 90 @Nevada L 66 - 76 18% 
 Tue, Feb 10 35 @Utah St. L 66 - 83 6% 
 Sat, Feb 14 334 Air Force W 73 - 59 90% 
 Tue, Feb 17 95 @Wyoming L 69 - 78 21% 
 Sat, Feb 21 56 New Mexico L 71 - 78 27% 
 Tue, Feb 24 94 @Colorado St. L 67 - 76 21% 
 Sat, Feb 28 63 Boise St. L 67 - 73 29% 
 Tue, Mar 3 221 San Jose St. W 75 - 69 71% 
 Sat, Mar 7 83 @Grand Canyon L 66 - 76 18% 
Totals 12 - 18 7 - 13 +0 -2 C+ C D- +2 C B+ B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 1.0 0.1 3.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.4 4.3 0.6 0.0 12.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 5.1 9.6 7.0 1.5 0.1 24.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 4.1 10.6 11.7 6.9 1.4 0.1 35.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.8 3.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 13.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 12th
Total 0.1 0.9 3.6 9.1 15.7 18.6 18.8 14.9 9.6 5.1 2.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0%
15-5 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-6 30.8% 0.0    0.0
13-7 1.9% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.3% 1.9% 1.9% 12.0 0.0 0.3
12-8 0.9% 3.3% 3.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.9
11-9 2.4% 1.5% 1.5% 12.3 0.0 0.0 2.4
10-10 5.1% 0.9% 0.9% 12.2 0.0 0.0 5.1
9-11 9.6% 0.5% 0.5% 13.8 0.0 0.0 9.5
8-12 14.9% 0.2% 0.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 14.9
7-13 18.8% 0.2% 0.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 18.8
6-14 18.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 18.6
5-15 15.7% 15.7
4-16 9.1% 9.1
3-17 3.6% 3.6
2-18 0.9% 0.9
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 13.2 99.8 0.0%