Green Bay
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.5 #258
Expected Predictive Rating -2.7 #207
Pace 61.2 #349
Improvement -0.4 #204

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #131 C+ D C+ B C+
Defense #345 D+ D+ F+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #122 1.15 #187 +1.1 #138
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #236 0.82 #87 -0.6 #207
Three Pointers 42% #171 1.06 #108 +1.2 #134
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #126 +1.8 #126
Freethrows 0.35 #44 74% #126 0.26 #40
Second Chance 23.2% #347 1.04 #154 0.24 #329
Turnovers 15.6% #116
Total Offense +1.3 #131

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #288 1.28 #326 +0.0 #175
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #204 0.74 #152 +0.5 #151
Three Pointers 45% #59 1.08 #273 -3.7 #327
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #286 -3.3 #287
Freethrows 0.33 #266 72% #192 0.24 #256
Second Chance 29.7% #144 1.17 #339 0.35 #271
Turnovers 12.7% #350
Total Defense -6.8 #345

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.1% #116 -0.3% #138
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.3% #137 6.7% #306
Possession Length 19.6 #357 16.9 #125
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #338 0.17 #183
Improvement +2.8 #58 -3.2 #330

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 5.5% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 17.6% 35.5% 10.4%
.500 or above in Conference 63.8% 85.7% 54.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.2% 1.0% 1.3%
First Round3.1% 5.1% 2.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Kentucky (Away) - 28.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 34 - 75 - 12
Quad 49 - 514 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 14 @Kansas L 51 - 94 1% -23  0 - 1 -22 -7 C- F B -19 F A F
 Fri, Nov 7 204 @Buffalo L 76 - 83 29% -3  0 - 2 -7 +7 A F C -14 D D- F
 Thu, Nov 13 133 @St. Thomas L 61 - 80 17% -19  0 - 3 -14 -11 D F+ D -4 C- A+ D
 Sat, Nov 15 76 @Minnesota L 65 - 72 OT 7% -1  0 - 4 +4 -3 C- D+ C- +7 B A+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 80 Yale L 67 - 73 12% -6  0 - 5 +1 +3 F A+ B -3 C+ C+ C-
 Sat, Nov 22 173 Massachusetts W 79 - 75 33% +4  1 - 5 +3 +9 B- D A+ -6 A F F+
 Mon, Nov 24 231 Iona W 80 - 75 44% -0  2 - 5 +1 +10 D- A A+ -9 C F+ F
 Thu, Dec 4 220 Robert Morris L 78 - 80 53% +1  2 - 6 0 - 1 -8 +3 A- F C -12 D- C D+
 Sun, Dec 7 144 @Wright St. L 58 - 86 19% -12  2 - 7 0 - 2 -24 -12 F+ C- F -13 C F F
 Thu, Dec 11 340 @IU Indianapolis W 85 - 75 62% +1  3 - 7 1 - 2 +1 +3 C- F C -2 A F+ F+
 Wed, Dec 17 130 UC Santa Barbara W 67 - 64 34% +8  4 - 7 +2 +7 A+ F A+ -5 D- D B-
 Tue, Dec 23 212 @Campbell L 79 - 102 30% -9  4 - 8 -23 +8 A- D+ D+ -33 F F F
 Thu, Jan 1 216 @Purdue Fort Wayne W 72 - 54 31% +10  5 - 8 2 - 2 +18 +9 B- D B +11 B C+ B
 Mon, Jan 5 254 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 79 - 76 61% +8  6 - 8 3 - 2 -5 +9 A+ F A- -14 F A C+
 Fri, Jan 9 340 IU Indianapolis W 75 - 59 80% +9  7 - 8 4 - 2 +1 -9 D- F D- +10 A+ B+ F+
 Sun, Jan 11 193 Northern Kentucky W 80 - 78 49% +13  8 - 8 5 - 2 -3 +17 A+ D+ A+ -20 D B+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 306 @Cleveland St. W 88 - 73 49% +2  9 - 8 6 - 2 +10 +21 A+ B+ B- -9 D- B F
 Sun, Jan 18 129 Oakland L 63 - 88 34% -11  9 - 9 6 - 3 -26 -8 D+ F D+ -21 F F C
 Thu, Jan 22 225 @Youngstown St. L 81 - 88 32% -8  9 - 10 6 - 4 -8 +13 A- D- C+ -21 F F F+
 Sat, Jan 24 220 @Robert Morris W 71 - 67 31% +5  10 - 10 7 - 4 +4 +6 C A C -2 C- B D+
 Fri, Jan 30 306 Cleveland St. L 82 - 89 71% -5  10 - 11 7 - 5 -18 +5 C D+ B -24 F F D
 Sun, Feb 1 144 Wright St. L 75 - 83 37% -9  10 - 12 7 - 6 -10 +8 C B- B- -18 D+ C F
 Wed, Feb 4 193 @Northern Kentucky L 73 - 79 29%
 Sat, Feb 7 278 Detroit Mercy W 78 - 74 65%
 Thu, Feb 12 216 Purdue Fort Wayne W 75 - 74 53%
 Sun, Feb 15 254 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 74 - 77 39%
 Fri, Feb 20 129 @Oakland L 74 - 84 17%
 Sun, Feb 22 278 @Detroit Mercy L 75 - 77 43%
 Sat, Feb 28 225 Youngstown St. W 74 - 73 54%
Totals 13 - 16 10 - 10 -5 +1 C+ D C+ -7 D+ D+ F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.7 5.2 6.7 2.1 0.1 14.9 3rd
4th 0.4 8.8 12.9 3.6 0.2 25.9 4th
5th 4.3 13.5 3.4 0.1 21.2 5th
6th 0.5 9.9 5.1 0.4 15.9 6th
7th 0.0 3.7 6.8 0.4 11.0 7th
8th 0.5 5.0 1.1 0.0 6.6 8th
9th 1.4 1.7 0.0 3.1 9th
10th 0.7 0.2 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 2.6 11.1 22.6 28.4 21.9 10.5 2.6 0.3 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 1.5% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.3% 10.6% 10.6% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-7 2.6% 10.7% 10.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.3
12-8 10.5% 7.0% 7.0% 15.2 0.0 0.5 0.2 9.8
11-9 21.9% 5.5% 5.5% 15.5 0.0 0.6 0.6 20.7
10-10 28.4% 3.3% 3.3% 15.9 0.1 0.9 27.5
9-11 22.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.4 22.2
8-12 11.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 11.0
7-13 2.6% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 2.5
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 15.5 96.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 1.5%