IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Green Bay
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	-4.9	#249
Expected Predictive Rating	-1.3	#189

Pace	61.9	#345
Improvement	+2.0	#77

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#192	C	D-	C+	A-	B-
Defense	#310	D+	C-	F	C	C

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	42%	#89	1.13	#215	+1.5	#126
2 Pt. Jumpers	18%	#224	0.82	#89	-0.4	#196
Three Pointers	40%	#202	1.02	#177	-0.4	#199
1st FG Attempt			1.03	#157	+0.7	#156
Freethrows	21.7	#17	72%	#208	15.6	#26
Second Chance	23.4%	#341	1.04	#185	0.24	#318
Turnovers					15.8%	#128
Total Offense					-0.7	#192

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	35%	#282	1.28	#313	-0.1	#186
2 Pt. Jumpers	20%	#199	0.76	#191	+0.1	#176
Three Pointers	45%	#69	1.02	#191	-2.2	#273
1st FG Attempt			1.06	#250	-2.2	#248
Freethrows	17.9	#212	69%	#61	12.4	#179
Second Chance	28.3%	#99	1.24	#347	0.35	#254
Turnovers					13.3%	#336
Total Defense					-4.2	#310

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	1.2%	#107	-0.3%	#136
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	0.4%	#169	4.7%	#267
Possession Length	19.6	#356	17.0	#143
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.11	#339	0.16	#129
Improvement	+0.8	#134	+1.3	#97

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.1%	5.1%	3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.2	15.1	15.4

.500 or above	31.6%	44.1%	20.3%
.500 or above in Conference	62.8%	76.5%	50.4%
Conference Champion	2.2%	3.6%	0.9%
Last Place in Conference	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%

First Four	0.7%	0.6%	0.8%
First Round	3.8%	4.9%	2.9%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Northern Kentucky (Home) - 47.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 5
Quad 3	4 - 8	4 - 12
Quad 4	10 - 4	14 - 17

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Mon, Nov 3	18 @Kansas	L	51 - 94	2%	-23	0 - 1		-23	-6	C-	F	B	-21	F	A+	F
Fri, Nov 7	179 @Buffalo	L	76 - 83	27%	-3	0 - 2		-5	+8	A+	F	C	-14	D-	D	F
Thu, Nov 13	135 @St. Thomas	L	61 - 80	19%	-19	0 - 3		-14	-11	D-	F	D+	-3	D+	A+	D
Sat, Nov 15	76 @Minnesota	L	65 - 72 OT	8%	-1	0 - 4		+4	-3	C-	D+	D+	+7	B	A+	F
Fri, Nov 21	80 Yale	L	67 - 73	13%	-6	0 - 5		+1	+2	F	A+	B+	-2	C	B-	C+
Sat, Nov 22	167 Massachusetts	W	79 - 75	34%	+4	1 - 5		+3	+10	B	D+	A+	-7	A	F	F
Mon, Nov 24	214 Iona	W	80 - 75	42%	-0	2 - 5		+2	+10	F	A+	A+	-7	C	F	F
Thu, Dec 4	206 Robert Morris	L	78 - 80	52%	+1	2 - 6	0 - 1	-8	+4	A+	F	C-	-12	F	C	D+
Sun, Dec 7	148 @Wright St.	L	58 - 86	21%	-12	2 - 7	0 - 2	-24	-11	F	C-	F	-14	C	F	F
Thu, Dec 11	355 @IU Indianapolis	W	85 - 75	70%	+1	3 - 7	1 - 2	-0	+2	C	F	C	-3	A+	F	F
Wed, Dec 17	181 UC Santa Barbara	W	67 - 64	48%	+8	4 - 7		-1	+5	A+	F	A+	-6	F	D	B-
Tue, Dec 23	199 @Campbell	L	79 - 102	30%	-9	4 - 8		-22	+10	A+	D	D-	-33	F	F	F
Thu, Jan 1	243 @Purdue Fort Wayne	W	72 - 54	37%	+10	5 - 8	2 - 2	+16	+8	C+	C	B+	+11	B	C+	B+
Mon, Jan 5	226 Wisconsin-Milwaukee	W	79 - 76	56%	+8	6 - 8	3 - 2	-4	+9	A+	F	B+	-13	F	A+	B-
Fri, Jan 9	355 IU Indianapolis	W	75 - 59	86%	+9	7 - 8	4 - 2	-0	-9	D-	F	F	+9	A+	A	F
Sun, Jan 11	174 Northern Kentucky	L	72 - 73	47%
Thu, Jan 15	321 @Cleveland St.	W	76 - 74	57%
Sun, Jan 18	124 Oakland	L	77 - 81	35%
Thu, Jan 22	210 @Youngstown St.	L	68 - 73	32%
Sat, Jan 24	206 @Robert Morris	L	68 - 73	31%
Fri, Jan 30	321 Cleveland St.	W	79 - 71	78%
Sun, Feb 1	148 Wright St.	L	69 - 71	41%
Wed, Feb 4	174 @Northern Kentucky	L	69 - 76	27%
Sat, Feb 7	281 Detroit Mercy	W	76 - 71	67%
Thu, Feb 12	243 Purdue Fort Wayne	W	74 - 71	60%
Sun, Feb 15	226 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee	L	72 - 76	34%
Fri, Feb 20	124 @Oakland	L	74 - 84	18%
Sun, Feb 22	281 @Detroit Mercy	L	73 - 74	46%
Sat, Feb 28	210 Youngstown St.	W	71 - 70	53%
Totals						13 - 16	10 - 10	-5	-1	C	D-	C+	-4	D+	C-	F

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Horizon Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0	Total
1st													0.0	0.2	0.7	0.8	0.5	0.1	0.0			2.2	1st
2nd												0.0	0.4	2.1	2.3	0.7	0.1					5.6	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.8	3.7	4.4	1.4	0.1	0.0					10.4	3rd
4th										0.0	0.8	4.8	6.3	1.7	0.1							13.7	4th
5th									0.0	0.6	4.6	7.8	2.2	0.2	0.0							15.4	5th
6th								0.0	0.3	3.7	7.9	3.2	0.2									15.3	6th
7th							0.0	0.2	2.8	7.2	4.0	0.3	0.0									14.6	7th
8th						0.0	0.2	2.2	5.8	3.8	0.4	0.0										12.4	8th
9th					0.0	0.2	1.8	3.5	2.5	0.4	0.0											8.5	9th
10th					0.1	0.5	0.8	0.5	0.0													1.9	10th
11th					0.0	0.0	0.0															0.0	11th

Total					0.2	0.8	2.7	6.4	11.5	15.8	17.8	16.9	12.8	8.5	4.5	1.6	0.6	0.1	0.0				Total

Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2	100.0%	0.0	0.0
17-3	100.0%	0.1	0.1	0.0
16-4	77.6%	0.5	0.3	0.2	0.0
15-5	48.7%	0.8	0.3	0.4	0.1
14-6	14.9%	0.7	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-7	2.3%	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
12-8	0.0%	0.0					0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	2.2%	2.2	0.7	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2	0.0%																	0.0				0.0
17-3	0.1%																	0.0	0.0			0.1
16-4	0.6%	25.6%	25.6%		14.1													0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.5
15-5	1.6%	17.7%	17.7%		14.3													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	1.3
14-6	4.5%	10.4%	10.4%		14.6													0.0	0.2	0.3	0.0	4.1
13-7	8.5%	8.5%	8.5%		14.9													0.0	0.2	0.4	0.1	7.8
12-8	12.8%	6.2%	6.2%		15.3														0.0	0.5	0.3	12.0
11-9	16.9%	4.5%	4.5%		15.5														0.0	0.3	0.4	16.1
10-10	17.8%	2.7%	2.7%		15.9															0.1	0.4	17.3
9-11	15.8%	1.8%	1.8%		16.0															0.0	0.3	15.5
8-12	11.5%	0.9%	0.9%		16.0																0.1	11.4
7-13	6.4%	0.8%	0.8%		16.0																0.1	6.4
6-14	2.7%	0.2%	0.2%		16.0																0.0	2.7
5-15	0.8%	0.7%	0.7%		16.0																0.0	0.7
4-16	0.2%																					0.2
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20

Total	100%	4.1%	4.1%	0.0%	15.2																	95.9	0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%