Idaho
Big Sky
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.6 187
Results Rating -2.0 198
Pace 68.6 176
Improvement -0.7 212

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 183 C D+ C+ C- C+
Defense C- 198 C B- D D B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 286 D+ 55% 264 -3.2 288
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 291 D 33% 328 -2.6 303
Three Pointers 49% 31 B- 36% 81 +6.0 25
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 132 C -0.2 178
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 168
Second Chance C- 28.0% 246 D+ 0.97 267 D+ 0.27 264
Turnovers C+ 16.4% 152
Freethrows C- 0.29 234 C 73% 180 C- 0.21 213
Total Offense C -0.8 183

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots F 26% 364 C 10.7% 160
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F+ 9% 360 D 7.8% 326
Three Pointers C- 81% 247 C 0.8% 168
Total D- 47% 329 C+ 5.4% 162

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 224 C- 59% 204 -0.4 158
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% 31 D+ 40% 272 +3.0 354
Three Pointers 36% 318 C 34% 198 -2.5 77
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.9 49 C- +1.0 222
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 184
Second Chance B+ 25.6% 30 C- 1.07 255 B- 0.28 72
Turnovers D 14.8% 303
Freethrows D 0.35 304 D+ 74% 272 D 0.26 312
Total Defense C- -0.9 198

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 202 F+ 5.0% 355
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 21% 97 D 2.2% 324
Three Pointers B 78% 42 C+ 1.2% 109
Total B- 51% 81 F+ 2.9% 351

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.7 221 17.0 129
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 322 0.19 251
Improvement -1.8 #274 +1.1 #125

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 216 189 159
Results Rating Rank 225 197 155
Conference Record 7 - 11 9 - 9 10 - 8
Conference Finish 7 6 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9% 9% 6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.5 15.3
.500 or above 51% 58% 19%
.500 or above in Conference 64% 74% 20%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 1%
First Round9% 9% 5%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Northern Arizona (Home) - 81.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 36 - 87 - 11
Quad 48 - 415 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 126 @Washington St. W 83 - 81 24% +9  98% 1 - 0 B- +8 B +6 A- D+ C- C+ +2 A B F
 Wed, Nov 12 226 @San Diego L 74 - 78 46% -5  2% 1 - 1 C- -5 C +0 C- D+ F D -5 F C- B-
 Sat, Nov 15 134 @UC San Diego L 67 - 75 27% +3  62% 1 - 2 C- -3 D+ -4 D C- C C+ +1 C B+ C-
 Wed, Nov 26 159 Cal St. Northridge W 78 - 64 44% +4  61% 2 - 2 B+ +14 C- -1 F A C+ A+ +14 A+ B- D
 Fri, Nov 28 114 Sam Houston St. L 68 - 94 32% -4  41% 2 - 3 F -23 C -0 B- C- B F -25 F F F
 Wed, Dec 3 294 North Dakota W 90 - 58 81% +15  86% 3 - 3 A +21 B +7 A B C- A+ +14 D+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 210 @South Dakota St. W 84 - 81 43% -1  34% 4 - 3 C+ +3 A- +10 A- D+ B D -6 C- A F
 Wed, Dec 10 86 @Notre Dame L 65 - 80 15% -5  4% 4 - 4 D+ -5 C +1 B- F+ A+ F+ -9 F+ C D+
 Sun, Dec 21 231 @Cal Poly W 83 - 80 OT 47% +7  87% 5 - 4 C+ +2 D- -7 F+ D C- A +8 A A+ F+
 Tue, Dec 23 332 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 63 - 64 74% -2  20% 5 - 5 D -9 F -12 F D- C+ B- +2 F B C+
 Sat, Jan 3 186 Eastern Washington W 84 - 81 61% +2  57% 6 - 5 1 - 0 C -2 B- +5 B B+ D D- -6 A- F B+
 Thu, Jan 8 194 Montana L 73 - 79 63% -9  2% 6 - 6 1 - 1 D -11 D+ -4 F A- A- D- -7 C- B D+
 Sat, Jan 10 164 Montana St. W 92 - 89 56% -9  4% 7 - 6 2 - 1 C -0 A+ +17 A+ F+ A+ F -18 F C B-
 Thu, Jan 15 252 @Idaho St. L 68 - 76 51% +2  70% 7 - 7 2 - 2 D -10 D- -8 F A B- C- -2 F+ A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 17 211 @Weber St. W 75 - 67 43% +9  96% 8 - 7 3 - 2 B +8 F+ -9 F+ B- F A+ +17 A+ D A+
 Thu, Jan 22 276 Sacramento St. W 86 - 76 77% +7  94% 9 - 7 4 - 2 C +1 C+ +2 A F C C -1 A F D-
 Sat, Jan 24 150 Portland St. L 66 - 69 54% -5  10% 9 - 8 4 - 3 D+ -6 D+ -4 C+ F C- C- -2 F A+ F+
 Thu, Jan 29 168 @Northern Colorado L 83 - 91 34% -2  28% 9 - 9 4 - 4 D+ -5 C +1 D+ F A D -6 D B+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 304 @Northern Arizona W 79 - 62 64% +15  99% 10 - 9 5 - 4 B+ +12 B- +4 B+ F B+ A +9 B- C C
 Thu, Feb 5 164 @Montana St. L 66 - 73 34% -9  3% 10 - 10 5 - 5 C- -4 F -10 C- F F+ B+ +6 A+ C- D-
 Sat, Feb 7 194 @Montana L 68 - 73 40% +2  60% 10 - 11 5 - 6 C- -4 D- -8 D+ F D+ B +4 D+ C C+
 Thu, Feb 12 211 Weber St. L 72 - 83 66% -15  0% 10 - 12 5 - 7 F+ -17 D+ -2 C- F A+ F -15 D D+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 252 Idaho St. W 99 - 69 73% +25  99% 11 - 12 6 - 7 A +22 A +13 A+ A- D+ A- +8 A+ C F+
 Thu, Feb 19 150 @Portland St. L 67 - 77 32% -9  7% 11 - 13 6 - 8 D+ -7 C- -1 C D+ C- D -6 C F F
 Sat, Feb 21 276 @Sacramento St. W 86 - 80 57% +3  86% 12 - 13 7 - 8 C+ +3 C+ +3 C- B+ F C -1 D+ A+ F
 Thu, Feb 26 304 Northern Arizona W 78 - 68 82%
 Sat, Feb 28 168 Northern Colorado W 78 - 76 57%
 Mon, Mar 2 186 @Eastern Washington L 75 - 78 39%
Totals 14 - 14 9 - 9 -2 C -1 C- C C+ C- -1 B- C C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D+ D B- C 35% 28% 49% C+ C C- D+ D+ C+ C- C C- C- C- D+ C C- 37% 27% 36% B C B+ C- B- D D D+ D
1.08 55% 33% 36% 0 0 1.02 28% 1.0 .27 16% .29 73% .21 1.10 59% 40% 34% +1 -1 1.02 26% 1.1 .28 15% .35 74% .21
Nov
3		 Washington St. B C- A+ A- A- 35% 12% 54% B+ A- D- B- D+ C- B- C B- C+ B F A+ A 37% 16% 47% C A A+ F B F F C F
1.16 56% 67% 39% +7 +1 1.17 21% 1.1 .24 15% .31 74% .23 1.13 58% 75% 25% -1 +1 1.02 18% 1.3 .24 7% .51 74% .38
Nov
12		 San Diego C C+ C- D- D+ 50% 11% 39% B+ C- A+ F D+ F A+ B A+ D A- F F F 25% 27% 48% A- F B- D- C- B- B A+ B+
1.10 64% 40% 29% 0 +2 1.07 51% 0.6 .32 24% .49 76% .37 1.16 50% 54% 52% +15 -2 1.29 28% 1.1 .31 19% .20 64% .13
Nov
15		 UC San Diego D+ F F B- D- 24% 14% 62% C D D+ B- C- C A C A- C+ D- A- B+ C 50% 15% 35% D+ C A+ F B+ C- F F F
0.96 25% 29% 35% -8 0 0.86 26% 1.1 .29 16% .34 70% .24 1.07 67% 29% 29% 0 +2 1.06 13% 1.5 .19 16% .48 79% .37
Nov
26		 Cal St. Northridge C- C F F F 26% 7% 67% B F C+ A+ A C+ A+ A- A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ 36% 24% 40% A A+ A D- B- D F D+ F
1.06 57% 25% 25% -10 +1 0.83 29% 1.6 .47 15% .43 81% .35 0.87 70% 23% 14% -11 -1 0.78 26% 1.1 .28 15% .40 68% .27
Nov
28		 Sam Houston St. C A A+ D+ B- 22% 10% 67% C+ B- D B C- B D F F F C D+ F F 30% 26% 44% A F F F F F A+ B+ A+
1.07 73% 60% 30% +2 0 1.06 25% 1.1 .28 14% .27 47% .13 1.48 59% 40% 56% +15 -1 1.30 43% 1.3 .57 9% .16 67% .10
Dec
3		 North Dakota B A- F A+ A+ 30% 7% 63% C A B B- B C- B+ A+ A+ A+ D- C+ C+ D 34% 19% 47% B+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D- A+ B-
1.30 69% 0% 48% +14 +1 1.33 39% 1.2 .48 20% .43 92% .40 0.84 63% 33% 32% -1 0 1.00 19% 0.0 .00 24% .38 55% .21
Dec
6		 South Dakota St. A- D A+ A A 27% 22% 51% D A- D C+ D+ B A+ C- A+ D D- B- D- D 40% 34% 26% A C- A A A F F C- F
1.22 54% 64% 40% +9 -1 1.18 23% 1.1 .27 13% .49 72% .35 1.18 65% 35% 38% +4 -2 1.06 21% 0.9 .18 7% .52 73% .38
Dec
10		 Notre Dame C D+ F A+ B- 33% 25% 41% C- B- D+ F F+ A+ F A+ F+ F+ F B+ F F 29% 48% 23% A+ F+ C- B- C D+ A+ C- A+
1.04 53% 15% 48% +1 -1 1.02 20% 0.7 .14 10% .18 90% .16 1.27 80% 32% 67% +15 -4 1.23 35% 0.9 .32 14% .19 70% .13
Dec
21		 Cal Poly D- F F A+ D 19% 26% 54% F F+ F+ B D C- A+ B- A+ A D+ F A+ A+ 33% 7% 60% C+ A A A+ A+ F+ F C- F
1.00 36% 20% 42% -2 -2 0.93 24% 1.2 .28 17% .41 75% .30 0.96 61% 50% 21% -10 +1 0.85 23% 0.5 .11 17% .57 79% .45
Dec
23		 Cal St. Bakersfield F D F+ F F 31% 24% 45% D- F F+ C- D- C+ F A D- B- F+ F C- F 27% 33% 40% C+ F A+ F B C+ A+ A+ A+
0.96 53% 33% 27% -7 -1 0.86 29% 1.0 .29 17% .28 80% .22 0.98 64% 47% 33% +4 -2 1.06 23% 1.1 .26 20% .15 38% .06
Jan
3		 Eastern Washington B- F A+ A B 31% 13% 56% C- B A- C+ B+ D A+ D A+ D- B- B+ C B+ 32% 36% 32% A+ A- F A F B+ F A- F
1.21 43% 83% 40% +6 0 1.16 40% 1.2 .47 19% .51 72% .37 1.17 53% 32% 35% -3 -2 0.91 57% 0.9 .52 22% .46 68% .31
Jan
8		 Montana D+ F D F F 52% 12% 36% A F A- C+ A- A- A+ D- A+ D- D+ F B D+ 33% 22% 45% B+ C- A F B D+ F F F
1.04 46% 33% 17% -16 +2 0.74 38% 1.1 .40 11% .47 66% .31 1.13 63% 64% 32% +6 -1 1.12 14% 1.3 .18 19% .39 86% .33
Jan
10		 Montana St. A+ B+ C- A+ A+ 44% 14% 42% B- A+ C+ F F+ A+ D B- D F F+ F F F 46% 28% 26% D F D- A- C B- F F+ F
1.35 65% 38% 44% +10 +1 1.24 32% 0.7 .22 7% .22 79% .17 1.30 65% 57% 54% +16 0 1.34 32% 0.9 .28 18% .37 81% .30
Jan
15		 Idaho St. D- B B+ F F 38% 13% 49% B- F D- A+ A B- A+ F A+ C- A+ F F F 39% 25% 36% A- F+ A+ A+ A+ F+ F D- F
1.02 65% 50% 14% -11 +1 0.82 23% 2.0 .46 13% .54 65% .35 1.14 41% 64% 50% +9 -1 1.18 23% 0.6 .13 13% .43 80% .35
Jan
17		 Weber St. F+ D A+ F F 44% 13% 44% B- F+ F A+ B- F A+ F B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 44% 16% 40% C A+ C- D D A+ F C F
0.98 57% 50% 24% -6 +1 0.94 19% 1.9 .36 21% .43 65% .28 0.88 35% 14% 22% -21 +1 0.62 33% 1.1 .36 22% .66 72% .47
Jan
22		 Sacramento St. C+ A- F A+ A 37% 8% 56% C+ A F+ F F C D- A+ C C C+ A- A+ A+ 52% 31% 17% D A F D+ F D- A F C
1.20 68% 0% 45% +10 +2 1.25 26% 0.9 .23 17% .27 88% .23 1.06 53% 28% 10% -12 0 0.78 35% 1.2 .42 13% .27 100% .27
Jan
24		 Portland St. D+ C F C- C 47% 11% 42% A- C+ D+ F F C- A F+ B C- B F F F+ 66% 12% 22% F F A+ A+ A+ F+ B- C+ B-
0.98 57% 20% 32% -4 +2 0.98 26% 0.7 .17 19% .46 68% .31 1.03 52% 50% 55% +4 +3 1.16 13% 0.0 .00 15% .28 69% .19
Jan
29		 Northern Colorado C F B- B D+ 38% 13% 50% C+ D+ D F F A A- A+ A+ D D A- F D 50% 19% 31% D D A+ D+ B+ D F B F
1.09 38% 43% 36% -6 +1 0.93 21% 0.8 .17 8% .40 86% .34 1.20 65% 30% 44% +7 +1 1.17 19% 1.2 .22 14% .51 70% .35
Jan
31		 Northern Arizona B- A+ B- B- B+ 43% 13% 44% C+ B+ F D F B+ F B F A B F B B- 40% 27% 33% C+ B- B F+ C C D- A- D+
1.21 74% 43% 38% +10 +1 1.24 18% 1.0 .18 14% .16 78% .12 0.95 53% 46% 31% -1 -1 0.98 20% 1.1 .23 17% .33 61% .20
Feb
5		 Montana St. F D A+ F D+ 57% 16% 28% B+ C- F F F F+ F A+ F B+ C- A- A+ A 35% 44% 21% A+ A+ A+ F C- D- F F F
0.91 52% 56% 25% -5 +2 0.97 21% 0.6 .12 19% .15 89% .14 1.00 59% 33% 20% -6 -3 0.83 13% 2.3 .30 12% .47 87% .41
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Montana D- F+ F B+ D 35% 18% 47% C+ D+ D F F D+ F F F B B F F D 31% 20% 49% B D+ A- F C C+ D- A+ B-
0.94 50% 20% 37% -4 0 0.95 25% 0.6 .16 17% .20 58% .12 1.01 53% 50% 42% +7 -1 1.14 17% 1.4 .23 21% .35 60% .21
Feb
12		 Weber St. D+ C+ F C D+ 42% 6% 52% B+ C- F+ F F A+ D B D+ F D- B+ F F 44% 34% 22% A+ D B F D+ F C F F
1.12 64% 0% 33% 0 +2 1.06 22% 0.6 .14 8% .29 76% .22 1.29 64% 29% 55% +6 -1 1.12 28% 1.2 .34 9% .34 90% .31
Feb
14		 Idaho St. A A A+ A+ A+ 44% 9% 46% B+ A+ B A A- D+ D+ F F+ A- A+ C A+ A+ 30% 23% 46% A A+ A- F C F+ C+ F D+
1.36 71% 60% 48% +17 +2 1.41 34% 1.3 .45 17% .30 67% .20 0.95 35% 38% 27% -12 -1 0.77 26% 1.3 .33 14% .29 89% .26
Feb
19		 Portland St. C- D+ F A- C 37% 22% 41% C- C C- D D+ C- F B- F D B C+ F D 28% 34% 38% A+ C B- F F F D- B- D+
0.98 53% 18% 38% -4 0 0.94 28% 0.9 .26 19% .23 77% .18 1.12 50% 35% 42% +1 -2 1.00 29% 1.5 .43 15% .36 67% .24
Feb
21		 Sacramento St. C+ F F A+ C 35% 10% 54% C C- A D+ B+ F A+ C+ A+ C F B+ B- D 29% 33% 37% B+ D+ A+ A+ A+ F F F F
1.17 47% 20% 42% +1 +1 1.06 44% 1.1 .46 22% .47 74% .35 1.09 73% 29% 32% 0 -2 0.98 14% 0.4 .06 11% .51 85% .43



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 1.8 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 7.7 7.8 3rd
4th 4.3 7.5 11.8 4th
5th 16.3 2.0 18.3 5th
6th 3.9 19.3 0.1 23.3 6th
7th 5.3 26.8 4.8 36.9 7th
8th 0.2 0.2 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 5.4 30.7 44.8 19.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 19.1% 15.2% 15.2% 14.0 0.0 0.6 1.8 0.5 16.2
9-9 44.8% 8.6% 8.6% 14.8 0.1 0.9 2.7 0.1 41.0
8-10 30.7% 5.7% 5.7% 15.2 0.0 1.3 0.4 28.9
7-11 5.4% 4.8% 4.8% 15.9 0.0 0.2 5.2
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 14.6 91.3 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.9% 100.0% 14.0 0.6 19.4 61.6 18.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.1%
Lose Out 2.2%