Idaho
Big Sky
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.2#249
Expected Predictive Rating-5.0#248
Pace64.5#285
Improvement+1.5#112

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#144
First Shot+0.4#163
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#128
Layup/Dunks-0.6#206
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#266
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#50
Freethrows-2.2#311
Improvement+1.1#126

Defense
Total Defense-6.5#345
First Shot-6.4#346
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#203
Layups/Dunks-0.8#201
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#345
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#254
Freethrows-1.4#279
Improvement+0.5#163
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.1% 6.1% 4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 5.9% 9.6% 1.8%
.500 or above in Conference 57.6% 73.9% 39.7%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.4% 1.8%
First Four3.7% 3.9% 3.4%
First Round3.6% 4.5% 2.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland St. (Home) - 52.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 63 - 10
Quad 410 - 812 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 216   UC Davis L 75-79 52%     0 - 1 -9.6 +1.1 -10.6
  Nov 11, 2024 103   @ Washington St. L 67-90 13%     0 - 2 -16.0 -6.2 -8.7
  Nov 16, 2024 33   @ BYU L 71-95 3%     0 - 3 -7.8 +2.4 -9.6
  Nov 23, 2024 268   Southern Utah L 67-82 53%     0 - 4 -21.0 +6.6 -30.8
  Nov 24, 2024 311   @ San Diego L 61-68 53%     0 - 5 -13.1 -13.1 +0.0
  Nov 30, 2024 163   UC Riverside W 80-68 39%     1 - 5 +9.7 +14.3 -3.3
  Dec 04, 2024 235   @ UMKC W 82-77 37%     2 - 5 +3.2 +12.4 -9.1
  Dec 07, 2024 76   @ Oregon St. L 62-78 9%     2 - 6 -6.0 -0.8 -7.0
  Dec 15, 2024 65   UC San Diego L 56-80 15%     2 - 7 -18.3 -10.9 -8.4
  Dec 18, 2024 216   @ UC Davis L 66-74 33%     2 - 8 -8.7 -3.4 -5.2
  Dec 21, 2024 302   @ Pacific W 95-72 51%     3 - 8 +17.5 +24.9 -6.0
  Jan 02, 2025 189   Montana St. W 69-64 45%     4 - 8 1 - 0 +1.2 -5.5 +6.6
  Jan 04, 2025 207   Montana L 71-73 48%     4 - 9 1 - 1 -6.8 -4.8 -2.0
  Jan 09, 2025 337   @ Sacramento St. W 80-67 64%     5 - 9 2 - 1 +4.0 +15.6 -9.9
  Jan 11, 2025 215   @ Portland St. L 63-75 33%     5 - 10 2 - 2 -12.5 -4.7 -8.7
  Jan 18, 2025 252   Eastern Washington W 83-76 60%     6 - 10 3 - 2 -0.8 +10.9 -11.3
  Jan 20, 2025 207   @ Montana L 67-72 30%     6 - 11 3 - 3 -4.8 -2.3 -2.9
  Jan 23, 2025 154   Northern Colorado W 77-76 37%     7 - 11 4 - 3 -0.8 +7.3 -8.0
  Jan 25, 2025 250   Northern Arizona L 72-80 60%     7 - 12 4 - 4 -15.7 +1.5 -17.9
  Jan 30, 2025 286   @ Weber St. W 82-74 46%     8 - 12 5 - 4 +3.7 +10.6 -6.4
  Feb 01, 2025 234   @ Idaho St. L 71-87 37%     8 - 13 5 - 5 -17.7 +6.5 -26.5
  Feb 06, 2025 215   Portland St. W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 08, 2025 337   Sacramento St. W 73-64 81%    
  Feb 15, 2025 252   @ Eastern Washington L 73-75 38%    
  Feb 20, 2025 250   @ Northern Arizona L 73-75 39%    
  Feb 22, 2025 154   @ Northern Colorado L 74-82 20%    
  Feb 27, 2025 234   Idaho St. W 72-71 56%    
  Mar 01, 2025 286   Weber St. W 75-71 66%    
  Mar 03, 2025 189   @ Montana St. L 70-76 25%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.3 1st
2nd 0.4 1.5 0.9 0.2 3.0 2nd
3rd 1.0 7.2 6.0 1.0 0.0 15.2 3rd
4th 0.5 8.5 9.0 1.6 0.0 19.5 4th
5th 0.1 5.6 12.8 2.6 0.1 21.2 5th
6th 0.0 2.2 12.2 4.4 0.1 18.8 6th
7th 0.7 6.6 5.3 0.3 12.9 7th
8th 0.1 2.1 3.9 0.4 6.6 8th
9th 0.3 1.8 0.4 2.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.2 10th
Total 0.6 4.7 13.1 24.0 26.9 19.2 9.2 2.0 0.3 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 40.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 6.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.3% 18.8% 18.8% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 2.0% 17.0% 17.0% 15.4 0.2 0.2 1.7
11-7 9.2% 8.5% 8.5% 15.6 0.3 0.5 8.4
10-8 19.2% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 0.0 1.3 17.8
9-9 26.9% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 1.6 25.4
8-10 24.0% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.8 23.3
7-11 13.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 13.0
6-12 4.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 4.6
5-13 0.6% 0.6
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.5 4.5 94.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%