Idaho
Big Sky
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.6 #185
Expected Predictive Rating -0.9 #184
Pace 67.1 #229
Improvement -0.6 #219

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #163 C D+ C+ C C+
Defense #236 C B D+ D B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #298 1.11 #239 -3.3 #292
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #277 0.70 #275 -2.2 #289
Three Pointers 50% #26 1.06 #106 +5.7 #30
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #170 +0.2 #168
Freethrows 0.30 #174 73% #148 0.22 #157
Second Chance 27.6% #272 1.00 #212 0.28 #258
Turnovers 15.5% #110
Total Offense -0.1 #163

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #192 1.18 #206 -0.3 #188
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #48 0.84 #310 -3.0 #350
Three Pointers 36% #314 1.02 #179 +2.5 #84
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #206 -0.8 #206
Freethrows 0.35 #309 73% #219 0.25 #308
Second Chance 26.4% #49 1.00 #137 0.26 #60
Turnovers 15.0% #281
Total Defense -1.5 #236

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #155 -1.3% #71
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.2% #176 2.8% #233
Possession Length 17.7 #227 17.1 #172
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #286 0.18 #199
Improvement -1.5 #268 +0.9 #133

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.2% 15.4% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.2 14.6
.500 or above 71.7% 86.6% 63.8%
.500 or above in Conference 81.6% 93.4% 75.3%
Conference Champion 3.6% 7.9% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.5%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Round12.1% 15.4% 10.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana St. (Away) - 34.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 36 - 87 - 11
Quad 49 - 316 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 122 @Washington St. W 83 - 81 25% +9  1 - 0 +8 +9 A- D C -1 A- B F
 Wed, Nov 12 202 @San Diego L 74 - 78 42% -5  1 - 1 -4 +4 C D+ F+ -8 F C B-
 Sat, Nov 15 138 @UC San Diego L 67 - 75 28% +3  1 - 2 -4 -2 D C- C+ -1 C B+ C
 Wed, Nov 26 187 Cal St. Northridge W 78 - 64 51% +4  2 - 2 +12 +1 F A C +10 A+ C+ D+
 Fri, Nov 28 108 Sam Houston St. L 68 - 94 31% -4  2 - 3 -22 +3 B- D+ A- -28 F F F
 Wed, Dec 3 282 North Dakota W 90 - 58 79% +15  3 - 3 +22 +11 A B+ C+ +11 C- A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 177 @South Dakota St. W 84 - 81 37% -1  4 - 3 +5 +13 A- D+ B+ -8 C A+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 81 @Notre Dame L 65 - 80 15% -5  4 - 4 -5 +5 B- D- A+ -12 D- C D+
 Sun, Dec 21 263 @Cal Poly W 83 - 80 OT 55% +7  5 - 4 +0 -5 F+ D D+ +5 A A+ D-
 Tue, Dec 23 319 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 63 - 64 69% -2  5 - 5 -8 -8 F F+ C+ +1 F B C+
 Sat, Jan 3 245 Eastern Washington W 84 - 81 72% +2  6 - 5 1 - 0 -5 +6 C+ B D -11 B+ F B+
 Thu, Jan 8 158 Montana L 73 - 79 56% -9  6 - 6 1 - 1 -9 -1 F B A- -8 C- B+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 166 Montana St. W 92 - 89 57% -9  7 - 6 2 - 1 -0 +20 A+ F+ A+ -20 F C+ C+
 Thu, Jan 15 227 @Idaho St. L 68 - 76 46% +2  7 - 7 2 - 2 -9 -4 F A- B- -5 D- A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 17 221 @Weber St. W 75 - 67 45% +9  8 - 7 3 - 2 +8 -6 D C F +13 A+ D+ A
 Thu, Jan 22 274 Sacramento St. W 86 - 76 77% +7  9 - 7 4 - 2 +1 +6 A F C -5 B+ F+ D-
 Sat, Jan 24 149 Portland St. L 66 - 69 53% -5  9 - 8 4 - 3 -5 -1 C+ D- C -5 F+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 190 @Northern Colorado L 83 - 91 40% -2  9 - 9 4 - 4 -7 +2 D+ F A -9 D B+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 313 @Northern Arizona W 79 - 62 66% +15  10 - 9 5 - 4 +11 +6 B+ F B +6 C+ C+ C
 Thu, Feb 5 166 @Montana St. L 70 - 74 35%
 Sat, Feb 7 158 @Montana L 72 - 77 33%
 Thu, Feb 12 221 Weber St. W 80 - 75 67%
 Sat, Feb 14 227 Idaho St. W 75 - 70 68%
 Thu, Feb 19 149 @Portland St. L 68 - 73 31%
 Sat, Feb 21 274 @Sacramento St. W 80 - 78 57%
 Thu, Feb 26 313 Northern Arizona W 78 - 68 84%
 Sat, Feb 28 190 Northern Colorado W 78 - 75 63%
 Mon, Mar 2 245 @Eastern Washington W 77 - 76 51%
Totals 15 - 13 10 - 8 -2 +0 C D+ C+ -2 C B D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 1.8 0.4 3.6 1st
2nd 0.3 3.2 5.2 1.9 0.1 10.7 2nd
3rd 0.3 5.4 10.9 3.7 0.1 20.4 3rd
4th 0.5 7.5 15.7 5.7 0.2 29.7 4th
5th 0.1 3.8 10.8 4.0 0.2 18.8 5th
6th 1.0 5.6 2.5 0.1 9.1 6th
7th 0.2 2.0 2.1 0.2 4.5 7th
8th 0.5 1.5 0.3 2.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.1 1.2 4.8 12.2 21.3 25.4 20.1 10.4 3.8 0.5 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 84.8% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 46.5% 1.8    0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0
12-6 11.5% 1.2    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.6% 3.6 1.1 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.5% 22.9% 22.9% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.4
13-5 3.8% 24.2% 24.2% 13.5 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 2.9
12-6 10.4% 20.5% 20.5% 13.8 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.3 8.3
11-7 20.1% 14.7% 14.7% 14.2 0.3 1.7 0.9 0.0 17.2
10-8 25.4% 12.5% 12.5% 14.7 0.0 1.0 1.9 0.2 22.2
9-9 21.3% 9.1% 9.1% 14.9 0.0 0.2 1.6 0.1 19.4
8-10 12.2% 6.1% 6.1% 15.5 0.4 0.4 11.4
7-11 4.8% 3.4% 3.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 4.7
6-12 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.2
5-13 0.1% 13.8% 13.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.2% 12.2% 0.0% 14.4 87.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.8 25.0 75.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%