Idaho
Big Sky
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.2 #195
Expected Predictive Rating -0.8 #174
Pace 66.0 #266
Improvement -1.9 #282

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #160 C C- C+ B- C
Defense #247 C- B D C A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #329 1.02 #321 -5.9 #344
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #234 0.71 #227 -1.3 #244
Three Pointers 50% #26 1.11 #63 +7.1 #15
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #186 -0.2 #184
Freethrows 18.2 #144 76% #85 13.8 #111
Second Chance 30.5% #193 0.99 #246 0.30 #213
Turnovers 15.7% #125
Total Offense +0.2 #160

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #308 1.28 #311 +0.9 #146
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #29 0.84 #298 -3.7 #356
Three Pointers 39% #230 1.00 #172 +1.0 #147
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #237 -1.8 #237
Freethrows 17.2 #176 71% #115 12.2 #198
Second Chance 25.8% #35 1.04 #185 0.27 #62
Turnovers 14.4% #305
Total Defense -2.3 #247

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.2% #209 -2.4% #29
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.2% #176 6.1% #290
Possession Length 18.4 #294 17.4 #213
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #304 0.15 #115
Improvement -1.6 #280 -0.3 #210

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.9% 11.9% 7.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.4 14.8
.500 or above 54.6% 66.5% 41.0%
.500 or above in Conference 61.2% 73.0% 47.7%
Conference Champion 7.5% 11.9% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 4.2% 1.9% 6.8%
First Four0.7% 0.6% 0.9%
First Round9.6% 11.6% 7.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana St. (Home) - 53.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 35 - 76 - 10
Quad 49 - 515 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 145 @Washington St. W 83 - 81 28%  +9  1 - 0 +6 +11 A+ D+ C- -5 B- B+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 222 @San Diego L 74 - 78 42%  -5  1 - 1 -4 +4 C+ F F -9 F C B-
 Sat, Nov 15 108 @UC San Diego L 67 - 75 18%  +3  1 - 2 -1 -3 F D+ B- +2 B- A+ C+
 Wed, Nov 26 211 Cal St. Northridge W 78 - 64 52%  +4  2 - 2 +11 -0 F A+ C- +11 A+ C+ D
 Fri, Nov 28 134 Sam Houston St. L 68 - 94 36%  -4  2 - 3 -24 +2 C+ C- A- -29 F F F
 Wed, Dec 3 319 North Dakota W 90 - 58 84%  +15  3 - 3 +19 +12 A+ B+ C- +8 D A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 173 @South Dakota St. W 84 - 81 34%  -1  4 - 3 +5 +13 A D+ A- -8 C- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 59 @Notre Dame L 65 - 80 10%  -5  4 - 4 -3 +7 B+ D- A+ -12 F C D+
 Sun, Dec 21 253 @Cal Poly W 83 - 80 OT 51%  +7  5 - 4 +1 -4 D D D- +4 A A+ F
 Tue, Dec 23 294 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 63 - 64 59%  -2  5 - 5 -5 -7 F F C+ +1 F A C+
 Sat, Jan 3 255 Eastern Washington W 84 - 81 73%  +2  6 - 5 1 - 0 -5 +5 C B+ D+ -10 A F A+
 Thu, Jan 8 178 Montana L 73 - 79 58%  -9  6 - 6 1 - 1 -10 -3 F B- A+ -8 D B+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 153 Montana St. W 71 - 70 53% 
 Thu, Jan 15 187 @Idaho St. L 71 - 74 38% 
 Sat, Jan 17 212 @Weber St. L 75 - 77 42% 
 Thu, Jan 22 296 Sacramento St. W 82 - 74 78% 
 Sat, Jan 24 154 Portland St. W 72 - 71 53% 
 Thu, Jan 29 161 @Northern Colorado L 73 - 78 33% 
 Sat, Jan 31 302 @Northern Arizona W 73 - 70 60% 
 Thu, Feb 5 153 @Montana St. L 68 - 73 31% 
 Sat, Feb 7 178 @Montana L 75 - 79 36% 
 Thu, Feb 12 212 Weber St. W 78 - 74 63% 
 Sat, Feb 14 187 Idaho St. W 74 - 71 60% 
 Thu, Feb 19 154 @Portland St. L 69 - 74 31% 
 Sat, Feb 21 296 @Sacramento St. W 79 - 77 59% 
 Thu, Feb 26 302 Northern Arizona W 76 - 67 79% 
 Sat, Feb 28 161 Northern Colorado W 76 - 75 54% 
 Mon, Mar 2 255 @Eastern Washington W 78 - 77 51% 
Totals 14 - 14 9 - 9 -2 +0 C C- C+ -2 C- B D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.4 2.6 2.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 7.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.4 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 10.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.7 5.8 2.8 0.4 0.0 12.0 3rd
4th 0.2 2.7 6.9 3.5 0.4 0.0 13.6 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 6.8 4.5 0.5 0.0 14.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 6.6 4.9 0.7 0.0 14.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.4 4.4 0.7 0.0 12.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.6 3.1 0.6 0.0 9.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.9 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.8 7.4 10.9 14.0 15.3 15.1 12.4 9.0 5.3 2.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 98.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 94.1% 1.0    0.8 0.2 0.0
14-4 77.5% 2.1    1.3 0.8 0.0
13-5 48.6% 2.6    1.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 15.7% 1.4    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.5% 7.5 3.7 2.6 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.3% 40.0% 40.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 1.0% 34.7% 34.7% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7
14-4 2.7% 26.6% 26.6% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 2.0
13-5 5.3% 22.0% 22.0% 13.9 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.2
12-6 9.0% 17.1% 17.1% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 7.5
11-7 12.4% 14.3% 14.3% 14.5 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.1 10.6
10-8 15.1% 10.8% 10.8% 14.9 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.2 13.5
9-9 15.3% 9.0% 9.0% 15.2 0.1 1.0 0.3 14.0
8-10 14.0% 4.9% 4.9% 15.5 0.3 0.4 13.3
7-11 10.9% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3 10.5
6-12 7.4% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.2 7.2
5-13 3.8% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 3.8
4-14 1.8% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.8
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 9.9% 9.9% 0.0% 14.6 90.1 0.0%