Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#150
Expected Predictive Rating-0.5#172
Pace77.6#20
Improvement+5.2#6

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#94
First Shot+5.2#54
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#304
Layup/Dunks+3.1#72
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#359
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.3#8
Freethrows-2.2#305
Improvement+4.4#4

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#263
First Shot-4.2#313
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#69
Layups/Dunks-3.8#316
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#138
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#179
Freethrows-1.2#270
Improvement+0.7#133
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.2% 6.7% 4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 12.4 13.3
.500 or above 54.3% 78.1% 52.6%
.500 or above in Conference 65.0% 76.7% 64.1%
Conference Champion 4.1% 7.6% 3.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.7% 1.3%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round4.2% 6.7% 4.0%
Second Round0.4% 0.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio St. (Away) - 6.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 52 - 7
Quad 36 - 57 - 12
Quad 48 - 315 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 88   Florida Atlantic L 64-97 28%     0 - 1 -26.7 -18.1 -3.5
  Nov 12, 2024 281   SIU Edwardsville L 72-77 82%     0 - 2 -14.4 -3.9 -10.5
  Nov 16, 2024 252   @ Ball St. W 94-84 59%     1 - 2 +8.1 +8.0 -1.2
  Nov 22, 2024 361   Chicago St. W 97-61 94%     2 - 2 +18.4 +14.8 +2.2
  Nov 25, 2024 325   @ Southern Indiana L 77-87 74%     2 - 3 -16.3 -5.3 -10.1
  Nov 29, 2024 105   Arkansas St. L 81-86 34%     2 - 4 -0.6 +6.8 -7.1
  Nov 30, 2024 247   Iona W 83-80 69%     3 - 4 -1.8 +6.0 -7.9
  Dec 01, 2024 285   Tarleton St. W 87-71 75%     4 - 4 +9.3 +14.7 -5.3
  Dec 07, 2024 171   @ Missouri St. W 80-77 42%     5 - 4 1 - 0 +5.4 +10.8 -5.4
  Dec 18, 2024 133   Murray St. W 84-74 56%     6 - 4 2 - 0 +8.6 +9.8 -1.2
  Dec 29, 2024 29   @ Ohio St. L 72-88 7%    
  Jan 01, 2025 78   Bradley L 78-82 35%    
  Jan 04, 2025 315   @ Evansville W 82-76 71%    
  Jan 08, 2025 224   @ Valparaiso W 83-82 53%    
  Jan 11, 2025 130   Belmont W 89-87 56%    
  Jan 15, 2025 78   @ Bradley L 75-85 18%    
  Jan 18, 2025 80   Drake L 70-74 35%    
  Jan 21, 2025 141   @ Illinois St. L 76-80 37%    
  Jan 25, 2025 99   Northern Iowa L 77-79 44%    
  Jan 29, 2025 171   Missouri St. W 78-74 64%    
  Feb 01, 2025 192   @ Illinois-Chicago L 81-82 46%    
  Feb 05, 2025 224   Valparaiso W 86-79 73%    
  Feb 08, 2025 80   @ Drake L 67-77 18%    
  Feb 11, 2025 99   @ Northern Iowa L 74-82 24%    
  Feb 15, 2025 141   Illinois St. W 79-77 58%    
  Feb 19, 2025 315   Evansville W 85-73 86%    
  Feb 22, 2025 130   @ Belmont L 86-90 35%    
  Feb 25, 2025 133   @ Murray St. L 74-78 35%    
  Mar 02, 2025 198   Southern Illinois W 82-77 67%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.0 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.7 2.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 11.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.8 5.9 2.9 0.4 0.0 13.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.5 6.6 3.1 0.4 0.0 14.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.0 6.3 3.3 0.4 0.0 13.3 6th
7th 0.2 2.1 5.5 3.5 0.5 0.0 11.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 4.3 3.4 0.6 0.0 9.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.9 2.5 0.6 0.0 7.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.7 0.5 0.0 4.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.6 6.4 9.7 13.0 14.5 14.7 12.7 9.9 6.5 3.8 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 95.5% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 88.7% 0.7    0.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 62.4% 1.2    0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 32.0% 1.2    0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
14-6 9.2% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.1% 4.1 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.1% 32.4% 29.7% 2.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.8%
18-2 0.2% 24.5% 24.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-3 0.7% 25.3% 25.3% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6
16-4 1.9% 15.4% 15.4% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.6
15-5 3.8% 13.3% 13.3% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 3.3
14-6 6.5% 11.1% 11.1% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.8
13-7 9.9% 7.3% 7.3% 13.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 9.2
12-8 12.7% 5.0% 5.0% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 12.0
11-9 14.7% 3.3% 3.3% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 14.2
10-10 14.5% 1.8% 1.8% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 14.3
9-11 13.0% 1.1% 1.1% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.9
8-12 9.7% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 9.7
7-13 6.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.0 6.3
6-14 3.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.6
5-15 1.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.6
4-16 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 13.2 0.1 1.1 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.2 95.8 0.0%