Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.1 #191
Expected Predictive Rating -2.5 #211
Pace 72.8 #83
Improvement +2.5 #61

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #217 C+ F D+ D- A+
Defense #172 C+ D+ D+ A- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #51 1.25 #82 +5.3 #33
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% #354 0.74 #185 -4.5 #353
Three Pointers 47% #66 0.90 #305 +0.5 #162
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #143 +1.2 #146
Freethrows 14.3 #321 73% #186 10.4 #310
Second Chance 22.9% #348 1.02 #222 0.23 #335
Turnovers 17.8% #252
Total Offense -1.9 #217

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #86 1.09 #102 -0.8 #204
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #60 0.93 #355 -4.0 #360
Three Pointers 33% #352 0.88 #41 +6.3 #10
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #124 +1.5 #129
Freethrows 12.9 #22 75% #267 9.6 #337
Second Chance 34.0% #294 1.06 #211 0.36 #272
Turnovers 15.3% #263
Total Defense -0.2 #172

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.8% #11 -0.5% #118
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.2% #188 -2.7% #131
Possession Length 17.1 #158 16.8 #105
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #202 0.19 #228
Improvement +3.7 #14 -1.2 #256

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.0% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 15.1
.500 or above 13.9% 17.2% 4.8%
.500 or above in Conference 12.2% 15.2% 3.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 13.5% 7.0% 31.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.8% 1.0% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Evansville (Home) - 73.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 34 - 85 - 15
Quad 48 - 313 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 166 @Charlotte L 76 - 92 34%  -9  0 - 1 -14 +3 C+ D C -17 F F F
 Mon, Nov 10 275 @SIU Edwardsville W 64 - 55 56%  +6  1 - 1 +5 -9 F D F +14 A+ A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 14 6 @Duke L 62 - 100 2%  -19  1 - 2 -14 -5 C D- F -6 B- F C
 Wed, Nov 19 228 Louisiana Tech W 60 - 51 68%  +5  2 - 2 +2 -14 F F C +16 A+ C C
 Sat, Nov 22 312 Ball St. W 70 - 52 83%  +2  3 - 2 +6 -2 C F D+ +10 A- C A-
 Wed, Nov 26 228 @Louisiana Tech L 73 - 75 45%  -1  3 - 3 -3 +6 A+ F B -9 F F B
 Fri, Nov 28 346 Alcorn St. L 74 - 81 83%  -11  3 - 4 -19 -14 F D F -4 F C A
 Sun, Dec 7 333 Southern Indiana W 77 - 55 86%  +11  4 - 4 +8 +5 B F B- +5 C A+ D-
 Sun, Dec 14 226 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 70 - 68 44%  +1  5 - 4 +1 -0 A+ C F +2 A+ F F
 Thu, Dec 18 116 Bradley L 99 - 108 3OT 40%  -1  5 - 5 0 - 1 -8 +1 C F A+ -7 B- D+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 85 @Illinois St. L 65 - 85 13%  -15  5 - 6 0 - 2 -10 -1 B F C -10 D+ A+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 73 Belmont W 81 - 80 OT 25%  -2  6 - 6 1 - 2 +6 +3 A+ C- D+ +3 A+ B B
 Thu, Jan 1 96 @Northern Iowa L 66 - 75 16%  -1  6 - 7 1 - 3 -1 +7 A+ F B- -9 C F C-
 Sun, Jan 4 169 @Drake L 72 - 74 34%  +0  6 - 8 1 - 4 +0 +7 C A+ F -7 F D+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 263 Evansville W 75 - 68 73% 
 Wed, Jan 14 85 Illinois St. L 71 - 77 29% 
 Sat, Jan 17 91 @Murray St. L 76 - 87 15% 
 Wed, Jan 21 116 @Bradley L 70 - 79 21% 
 Sat, Jan 24 169 Drake W 74 - 72 57% 
 Tue, Jan 27 184 @Illinois-Chicago L 72 - 75 38% 
 Sat, Jan 31 188 Valparaiso W 73 - 70 61% 
 Tue, Feb 3 263 @Evansville W 72 - 71 53% 
 Mon, Feb 9 130 Southern Illinois L 74 - 75 46% 
 Thu, Feb 12 91 Murray St. L 79 - 84 32% 
 Sun, Feb 15 188 @Valparaiso L 70 - 73 39% 
 Wed, Feb 18 96 Northern Iowa L 63 - 68 34% 
 Sat, Feb 21 73 @Belmont L 73 - 86 11% 
 Wed, Feb 25 130 @Southern Illinois L 71 - 78 26% 
 Sun, Mar 1 184 Illinois-Chicago W 75 - 72 59% 
Totals 12 - 17 7 - 13 -2 -2 C+ F D+ +0 C+ D+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 3.9 3.6 0.9 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.2 2.2 6.5 5.3 1.2 0.1 15.5 7th
8th 0.3 3.3 8.3 6.1 1.4 0.1 19.5 8th
9th 0.6 4.3 8.5 6.0 1.4 0.1 20.8 9th
10th 0.2 1.2 5.1 7.8 4.7 1.0 0.1 20.0 10th
11th 0.2 1.0 2.4 2.4 0.8 0.1 7.1 11th
Total 0.2 1.2 3.6 8.1 13.2 16.8 17.7 15.7 11.3 6.6 3.5 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 50.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 26.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 21.7% 21.7% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.6% 6.7% 6.7% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.6
12-8 1.3% 5.6% 5.6% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
11-9 3.5% 3.6% 3.6% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.4
10-10 6.6% 1.9% 1.9% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.5
9-11 11.3% 1.6% 1.6% 14.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.1
8-12 15.7% 0.8% 0.8% 15.2 0.1 0.0 15.5
7-13 17.7% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 17.6
6-14 16.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 16.7
5-15 13.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.2
4-16 8.1% 8.1
3-17 3.6% 3.6
2-18 1.2% 1.2
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 14.3 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%