Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.9 213
Results Rating -5.9 256
Pace 70.7 120
Improvement +0.9 155

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 216 B- D+ D+ D- A
Defense C- 214 C C D+ B C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 24 B 64% 62 +6.9 13
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 344 B- 41% 85 -4.2 350
Three Pointers 45% 91 D 31% 304 +0.0 175
Shot Selection/Accuracy A +2.0 8 C +0.6 144
1st FG Attempt B- 1.07 93
Second Chance D 25.4% 317 C 1.03 181 D+ 0.26 298
Turnovers D+ 18.5% 290
Freethrows D- 0.26 327 D 68% 314 D- 0.17 345
Total Offense C- -1.6 216

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots A- 62% 18 D+ 12.7% 280
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 34% 60 C 4.9% 181
Three Pointers B- 88% 111 D+ 1.3% 296
Total A- 68% 14 D 6.8% 310

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 134 C+ 56% 111 +0.0 183
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 85 F 48% 363 +3.3 358
Three Pointers 36% 312 B- 32% 103 -3.3 50
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.2 126 C +0.3 191
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 180
Second Chance D+ 32.7% 280 B- 0.96 74 C 0.31 194
Turnovers D+ 14.9% 291
Freethrows B 0.25 37 C+ 72% 132 B 0.18 45
Total Defense C- -1.4 214

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B+ 40% 38 C- 9.2% 242
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 18% 50 D 2.3% 317
Three Pointers B- 80% 77 C- 0.7% 207
Total A- 45% 16 D+ 4.5% 269

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 171 16.9 116
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 212 0.20 282
Improvement +3.2 #49 -2.2 #295

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 238 215 192
Results Rating Rank 284 253 232
Conference Record 3 - 17 3 - 17 5 - 15
Conference Finish 10 10 10
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 29% 7% 35%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Away) - 21.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 61 - 9
Quad 32 - 93 - 18
Quad 46 - 49 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 174 @Charlotte L 76 - 92 31% -9  9% 0 - 1 D- -14 C +0 C+ D+ C+ F -14 D+ F F
 Mon, Nov 10 260 @SIU Edwardsville W 64 - 55 49% +6  88% 1 - 1 B- +6 F+ -9 D- C- F A+ +16 A A+ B
 Fri, Nov 14 2 @Duke L 62 - 100 1% -19  13% 1 - 2 D -10 D -4 B- D+ F+ C- -3 B- F C
 Wed, Nov 19 215 Louisiana Tech W 60 - 51 62% +5  95% 2 - 2 C+ +3 F -16 D- F B- A+ +18 A+ B- D
 Sat, Nov 22 313 Ball St. W 70 - 52 81% +2  39% 3 - 2 B- +6 D+ -3 C+ D- D+ A +10 B+ C- B+
 Wed, Nov 26 215 @Louisiana Tech L 73 - 75 39% -1  34% 3 - 3 C- -2 B- +4 A F B+ D- -7 D- F C
 Fri, Nov 28 345 Alcorn St. L 74 - 81 82% -11  1% 3 - 4 F -20 F -17 F C- D- C- -2 F C+ A+
 Sun, Dec 7 339 Southern Indiana W 77 - 55 87% +11  89% 4 - 4 B- +7 C+ +2 B+ F B B+ +6 C- A+ F+
 Sun, Dec 14 271 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 70 - 68 51% +1  45% 5 - 4 C -1 D+ -3 A- C- F B- +2 A+ F F
 Thu, Dec 18 112 Bradley L 99 - 108 3OT 38% -1  46% 5 - 5 0 - 1 D -9 C- -2 C F A D+ -4 B- D F
 Sun, Dec 21 103 @Illinois St. L 65 - 85 16% -15  10% 5 - 6 0 - 2 D- -12 D+ -3 B F C F -10 D A- F
 Mon, Dec 29 67 Belmont W 81 - 80 OT 21% -2  24% 6 - 6 1 - 2 B- +6 C- -1 A- D+ C- A- +7 A B B+
 Thu, Jan 1 94 @Northern Iowa L 66 - 75 14% -1  32% 6 - 7 1 - 3 C -0 B- +5 A+ F C+ D -6 C- F C-
 Sun, Jan 4 193 @Drake L 72 - 74 35% +0  48% 6 - 8 1 - 4 C -1 B- +4 C A+ F D -5 F C- C
 Sat, Jan 10 295 Evansville L 69 - 72 77% -0  37% 6 - 9 1 - 5 D- -14 F -12 F C B- C- -2 F A B-
 Wed, Jan 14 103 Illinois St. W 94 - 89 33% +6  87% 7 - 9 2 - 5 B- +7 A+ +23 A+ F A+ F -16 F+ D- F
 Sat, Jan 17 123 @Murray St. L 81 - 85 21% -5  1% 7 - 10 2 - 6 C+ +2 C+ +3 C+ A- C C -1 C+ D C-
 Wed, Jan 21 112 @Bradley L 68 - 75 19% +3  82% 7 - 11 2 - 7 C -1 D -5 A F F B +5 A+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 24 193 Drake L 62 - 76 58% -5  4% 7 - 12 2 - 8 F -19 F -20 D+ F F C+ +2 B- A D
 Tue, Jan 27 109 @Illinois-Chicago L 74 - 76 18% -9  1% 7 - 13 2 - 9 C+ +5 B +6 A+ A+ F C- -2 F+ A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 151 Valparaiso L 72 - 76 OT 49% +3  72% 7 - 14 2 - 10 D+ -7 D -5 B- F+ C C- -2 B C D
 Tue, Feb 3 295 @Evansville W 84 - 63 57% +15  98% 8 - 14 3 - 10 A- +16 A+ +18 A+ A- B C+ +1 C+ C+ D-
 Mon, Feb 9 125 Southern Illinois L 65 - 80 40% -7  10% 8 - 15 3 - 11 F+ -15 F+ -10 D B F+ D -5 D B+ C-
 Thu, Feb 12 123 Murray St. L 72 - 74 40% -9  0% 8 - 16 3 - 12 C- -2 C- -1 A F F+ C- -2 B- F A+
 Sun, Feb 15 151 @Valparaiso L 75 - 76 27% -3  13% 8 - 17 3 - 13 C+ +2 A +13 A- A A F -11 F F C
 Wed, Feb 18 94 Northern Iowa L 60 - 81 29% -3  35% 8 - 18 3 - 14 F -18 D -5 B- C F F -14 F B F+
 Sat, Feb 21 67 @Belmont L 70 - 87 10% -10  6% 8 - 19 3 - 15 D+ -6 D -5 C+ D- C C+ +0 C+ A+ F
 Wed, Feb 25 125 @Southern Illinois L 68 - 77 21%
 Sun, Mar 1 109 Illinois-Chicago L 70 - 74 36%
Totals 9 - 20 4 - 16 -3 C- -2 C- C A C- -1 D D D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- B B- D C 46% 20% 45% A B- D C D+ D+ D- D D- C- C+ F B- C 40% 24% 36% C+ C D+ B- C D+ B C+ B
1.06 64% 41% 31% +1 +2 1.07 25% 1.0 .26 18% .26 68% .17 1.11 56% 48% 32% 0 0 1.02 33% 1.0 .31 15% .25 72% .18
Nov
3		 Charlotte C B B- D- C 44% 10% 46% A C+ D- B+ D+ C+ B- C+ B- F C- A+ F C- 51% 12% 37% D- D+ F D+ F F F B+ F
1.10 65% 40% 29% 0 +2 1.06 23% 1.3 .29 14% .36 71% .25 1.33 62% 0% 47% +5 +2 1.16 53% 1.0 .53 12% .49 67% .33
Nov
10		 SIU Edwardsville F+ F A+ F F 37% 8% 55% A D- C+ D C- F C B- C A+ C- A- A+ A- 29% 45% 25% A+ A D- A+ A+ B B B+ B
0.90 44% 50% 26% -11 +2 0.84 35% 0.9 .30 24% .31 76% .24 0.77 56% 28% 21% -10 -4 0.75 33% 0.4 .14 21% .23 62% .14
Nov
14		 Duke D C F D C- 43% 6% 51% A+ B- C+ F D+ F+ B+ F C+ C- C- D- C+ B 53% 4% 44% D- B- F F F C B- B+ B
0.81 52% 0% 30% -8 +2 0.91 24% 0.5 .12 24% .26 60% .15 1.31 66% 50% 33% +4 +3 1.16 48% 1.4 .70 16% .33 67% .22
Nov
19		 Louisiana Tech F F F D- F 34% 2% 64% A- D- F D+ F B- F B F A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 46% 30% 24% B- A+ A- C- B- D D- A C-
0.84 39% 0% 29% -12 +2 0.83 17% 1.0 .17 17% .20 75% .15 0.71 28% 31% 15% -23 -1 0.56 29% 0.8 .23 17% .34 55% .18
Nov
22		 Ball St. D+ B- A+ F+ C 42% 8% 50% A C+ C+ F D- D+ F A+ D- A A+ F A+ B+ 34% 30% 36% A B+ F A C- B+ A+ F A+
1.08 65% 75% 29% +2 +2 1.10 35% 0.7 .26 20% .17 100% .17 0.80 33% 50% 21% -12 -2 0.75 34% 0.7 .23 20% .10 80% .08
Nov
26		 Louisiana Tech B- A+ F F A- 54% 8% 38% A A F A- F B+ F A+ F D- C- F A+ F+ 43% 33% 24% A- D- D+ F F C A+ F A
1.08 79% 0% 25% +3 +3 1.13 15% 1.3 .19 15% .17 90% .16 1.11 57% 56% 23% +1 -1 1.02 37% 1.5 .53 19% .13 86% .11
Nov
28		 Alcorn St. F F+ F F F 51% 4% 45% A- F F A+ C- D- B+ A A C- D- F C+ F 46% 20% 33% F+ F F A+ C+ A+ D- A C-
0.93 54% 0% 16% -16 +3 0.76 29% 1.5 .43 21% .40 80% .32 1.02 64% 64% 33% +8 +1 1.19 38% 0.5 .21 25% .30 61% .18
Dec
7		 Southern Indiana C+ A- F B B+ 52% 9% 39% A- B+ F F F B F A+ F B+ A B- C- C- 33% 25% 41% C+ C- A+ A+ A+ F+ A F B-
1.18 68% 20% 38% +6 +2 1.19 25% 0.5 .13 14% .18 90% .16 0.84 41% 31% 33% -8 -1 0.84 16% 0.3 .05 14% .23 77% .18
Dec
14		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee D+ A A+ F A 38% 17% 45% C- A- F A+ C- F F F F B- A+ F A+ A+ 35% 26% 39% C+ A+ D F F F D F F
1.07 72% 88% 29% +10 0 1.23 20% 1.6 .32 23% .12 67% .08 1.04 37% 50% 19% -13 -1 0.74 36% 1.3 .47 9% .32 79% .25
Dec
18		 Bradley C- C+ F C+ D+ 36% 11% 53% A+ C F F+ F A A+ D+ A+ D+ B- F A C 29% 34% 37% A B- C- F+ D F C+ A+ B+
1.05 61% 0% 35% -2 +1 1.00 20% 0.8 .16 15% .53 70% .37 1.14 55% 50% 29% 0 -2 0.97 28% 1.2 .33 8% .31 63% .20
Dec
21		 Illinois St. D+ B- F B- C+ 41% 7% 52% A+ B F A+ F C A+ F A F F D- A D- 42% 32% 26% B D B A A- F B F C+
0.96 61% 0% 35% -1 +2 1.05 6% 1.5 .10 16% .47 59% .28 1.25 79% 44% 27% +8 -1 1.16 24% 0.9 .21 6% .23 80% .19
Dec
29		 Belmont C- D+ F A+ B+ 39% 11% 50% A- A- C- D D+ C- A+ F C A- A+ A+ F A+ 46% 11% 44% C- A C- A+ B B+ B- F D+
1.07 52% 17% 44% +3 +1 1.11 31% 0.9 .28 18% .42 50% .21 1.06 46% 17% 44% -1 +2 1.04 29% 1.0 .29 21% .28 82% .23
Jan
1		 Northern Iowa B- A+ A+ F A+ 49% 6% 45% A+ A+ F F F C+ F F F D C F A+ C+ 65% 12% 22% F C- F D F C- D+ B- C-
1.02 81% 67% 25% +7 +3 1.21 7% 0.0 .00 17% .07 50% .04 1.16 59% 83% 18% +1 +3 1.10 33% 1.2 .40 14% .27 67% .18
Jan
4		 Drake B- B F D D+ 39% 5% 57% A+ C B A+ A+ F A A+ A+ D B F D F 33% 29% 37% B+ F D- B C- C A+ A+ A+
1.14 65% 0% 32% -1 +2 1.05 34% 1.6 .55 22% .39 84% .33 1.17 53% 73% 37% +10 -1 1.20 31% 1.0 .31 14% .17 44% .07
Jan
10		 Evansville F D B- F F 47% 13% 40% A F C C- C B- C D+ C- C- B+ F+ F F 38% 23% 39% D- F A+ F A B- A+ F A+
0.96 54% 43% 18% -11 +2 0.84 33% 1.0 .33 15% .28 71% .20 1.00 52% 46% 45% +6 0 1.14 7% 2.0 .14 21% .07 100% .07
Jan
14		 Illinois St. A+ A+ B+ A A+ 46% 14% 40% A+ A+ C+ F F A+ A+ B A+ F D+ F F F 33% 29% 37% A- F+ B F D- F F D- F
1.37 83% 43% 40% +16 +1 1.36 28% 0.5 .14 9% .48 73% .35 1.29 65% 53% 42% +11 -1 1.22 24% 1.6 .38 12% .39 75% .30
Jan
17		 Murray St. C+ C D B- C 58% 22% 20% B+ C+ C- A+ A- C D F F+ C B- A+ D+ B- 42% 7% 51% F C+ D C- D C- D A- C-
1.12 56% 33% 36% -1 +1 1.02 32% 1.4 .45 17% .25 60% .15 1.18 57% 25% 36% 0 +2 1.05 36% 1.2 .42 15% .38 70% .26
Jan
21		 Bradley D A+ B+ C- A- 40% 18% 42% A- A F F F F F D+ F B A A A+ A+ 38% 22% 40% C- A+ C+ D- C- F F F F
0.95 75% 44% 33% +8 0 1.18 11% 0.7 .07 27% .19 70% .13 1.05 48% 25% 23% -14 0 0.75 26% 1.2 .31 4% .45 84% .38
Jan
24		 Drake F A+ C+ F D 33% 17% 50% B- D+ F+ F F F C+ F D+ C+ F A A- B- 30% 24% 46% B- B- C+ A+ A D F+ B D
0.85 75% 38% 25% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.5 .11 25% .31 59% .18 1.04 75% 31% 28% -1 -1 0.98 25% 0.7 .18 12% .37 67% .25
Jan
27		 Illinois-Chicago B A+ A+ C- A+ 43% 7% 50% A A+ A+ A A+ F F F F C- C D+ F F 45% 24% 31% C- F+ C A+ A+ D+ D D+ D
1.09 74% 67% 32% +7 +2 1.20 50% 1.2 .61 31% .17 50% .09 1.12 57% 42% 44% +5 0 1.12 36% 0.7 .24 16% .35 75% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Valparaiso D A F F C 52% 8% 40% A+ B- F F+ F+ C B F C- C- A+ F A+ A- 51% 29% 20% F B F A C D F+ B D+
1.01 70% 25% 24% -1 +3 1.06 22% 0.8 .17 17% .35 57% .20 1.07 43% 56% 18% -7 0 0.87 39% 0.9 .34 13% .42 65% .27
Feb
3		 Evansville A+ A- C- A+ A+ 37% 15% 48% B A+ B B+ A- B F F F C+ A- F A+ C- 17% 40% 43% A+ C+ D A C+ D- D- A C-
1.34 68% 38% 48% +14 +1 1.31 37% 1.2 .43 14% .17 56% .09 1.01 50% 58% 25% +1 -4 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 16% .32 65% .21
Feb
9		 Southern Illinois F+ C- C+ F F 49% 10% 41% A D D- A+ B F+ D+ D+ D+ D D+ D- C- D- 46% 29% 25% C- D D- A+ B+ C- A C- A-
0.87 54% 40% 20% -10 +2 0.86 22% 1.6 .35 23% .26 67% .17 1.07 63% 47% 33% +5 -1 1.10 35% 0.6 .20 16% .21 69% .14
Feb
12		 Murray St. C- F A+ A+ A 38% 10% 52% A- A C+ F F F+ A+ F A+ C- D+ F A+ B- 40% 21% 40% C+ B- F C F A+ F B D-
1.11 38% 100% 45% +7 +1 1.19 33% 0.6 .21 20% .52 59% .31 1.14 63% 50% 26% 0 0 1.02 45% 1.1 .52 22% .41 71% .29
Feb
15		 Valparaiso A A+ F F B+ 55% 14% 31% A A- B- A+ A A F+ C- D- F F C- F F 27% 36% 36% B+ F F B- F C D- A+ A-
1.23 78% 14% 27% +4 +2 1.14 35% 1.2 .42 13% .24 69% .17 1.24 83% 38% 44% +12 -3 1.20 44% 1.0 .44 15% .40 48% .19
Feb
18		 Northern Iowa D D+ A+ D+ C 49% 9% 43% A B- A F C F C+ F D- F B- F F F 41% 13% 46% D+ F A+ F B F+ A+ A+ A+
0.92 52% 50% 30% -4 +2 0.98 36% 0.6 .22 26% .27 54% .15 1.25 57% 86% 46% +14 +1 1.32 11% 1.7 .18 11% .10 33% .03
Feb
21		 Belmont D A F F+ C 43% 9% 48% A C+ F B+ D- C F A+ F C+ F+ F A+ C 34% 20% 46% A C+ A A+ A+ F A- F C+
0.96 68% 0% 29% -3 +2 1.00 20% 1.1 .23 18% .13 88% .12 1.19 71% 75% 29% +8 0 1.18 21% 0.4 .09 12% .23 87% .20



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 45.9 41.2 8.0 95.0 10th
11th 4.9 0.1 5.0 11th
Total 50.7 41.3 8.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15 8.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 7.9
4-16 41.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.2 41.1
3-17 50.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.2 50.6
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 99.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%
Lose Out 38.3%