Lindenwood
Ohio Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.4 #240
Expected Predictive Rating -3.5 #218
Pace 79.3 #8
Improvement -0.6 #215

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #291 D C+ D C C+
Defense #156 C C- C+ C D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #40 1.15 #184 +3.1 #79
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #161 0.58 #355 -1.6 #264
Three Pointers 34% #314 0.80 #364 -7.0 #353
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #332 -5.5 #332
Freethrows 0.32 #124 68% #324 0.22 #183
Second Chance 30.9% #165 1.14 #48 0.35 #91
Turnovers 19.3% #329
Total Offense -4.5 #291

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #7 1.17 #199 -5.3 #343
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #246 0.69 #73 +1.4 #73
Three Pointers 35% #341 1.02 #195 +3.2 #60
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #203 -0.7 #204
Freethrows 0.32 #225 71% #88 0.22 #207
Second Chance 32.8% #275 1.03 #191 0.34 #246
Turnovers 17.7% #114
Total Defense +0.1 #156

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #153 1.8% #326
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -11.4% #345 -0.4% #180
Possession Length 15.5 #37 16.8 #114
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #27 0.20 #263
Improvement -1.5 #275 +1.0 #121

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.7% 19.6% 11.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 89.2% 94.8% 79.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.0% 99.9% 97.4%
Conference Champion 15.5% 20.7% 6.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.2% 3.3% 3.0%
First Round15.0% 17.8% 10.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SIU Edwardsville (Home) - 64.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 31 - 31 - 6
Quad 416 - 717 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 17 @Texas Tech L 60 - 98 2% -19  0 - 1 -17 -10 F F+ C- -4 B- B+ F
 Mon, Nov 10 24 @Saint Louis L 66 - 109 2% -22  0 - 2 -24 -6 B- B+ F -12 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 14 246 Charleston Southern W 83 - 77 51% -6  1 - 2 +1 +0 C+ D- D +0 D+ B B
 Sun, Nov 16 293 @Alabama A&M L 65 - 74 51% -2  1 - 3 -14 -8 F C F+ -6 F+ F+ B-
 Thu, Nov 20 30 @Indiana L 53 - 73 3% -14  1 - 4 -2 -13 F B D- +11 A+ C- D
 Mon, Nov 24 358 UMKC W 80 - 67 89% +6  2 - 4 -5 -5 C F C- -0 C- B A+
 Tue, Dec 2 308 @Northern Illinois W 99 - 64 55% +22  3 - 4 +29 +19 F A+ A- +8 C A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 321 @Eastern Illinois W 82 - 74 59% -1  4 - 4 1 - 0 +1 +8 D+ A- B -7 B F F
 Thu, Dec 18 362 Western Illinois W 92 - 76 91% +13  5 - 4 2 - 0 -3 +5 C A- C- -9 F+ D- D
 Tue, Dec 23 182 @Missouri St. L 65 - 70 28% -5  5 - 5 -4 -6 F F+ A +2 B+ D- F+
 Thu, Jan 1 299 Morehead St. W 77 - 64 74% +6  6 - 5 3 - 0 +2 -2 A- F C+ +4 B- C C+
 Sat, Jan 3 332 Southern Indiana W 83 - 80 81% +5  7 - 5 4 - 0 -11 +6 F+ A+ D+ -17 F D B-
 Tue, Jan 6 252 @SIU Edwardsville L 62 - 66 42% -2  7 - 6 4 - 1 -6 -8 F A- D- +2 C+ C B+
 Sat, Jan 10 292 Arkansas Little Rock L 74 - 82 72% -5  7 - 7 4 - 2 -19 -3 D C+ F+ -16 F F C
 Thu, Jan 15 238 @Southeast Missouri St. W 88 - 76 38% +17  8 - 7 5 - 2 +11 +4 D+ A+ D +5 A- F+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 203 @Tennessee Martin L 55 - 69 32% -10  8 - 8 5 - 3 -14 -16 F C- F +3 C- C B
 Thu, Jan 22 333 Tennessee Tech W 89 - 68 81% +19  9 - 8 6 - 3 +7 +2 C+ A+ F +3 A B B-
 Sat, Jan 24 230 Tennessee St. L 86 - 96 59% -5  9 - 9 6 - 4 -17 +1 C- C- D -16 F C- B+
 Thu, Jan 29 332 @Southern Indiana W 73 - 60 62% +8  10 - 9 7 - 4 +5 -6 F C F+ +10 A- F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 299 @Morehead St. W 79 - 78 52% -2  11 - 9 8 - 4 -4 -1 C+ C- F -3 C B+ F
 Tue, Feb 3 252 SIU Edwardsville W 71 - 67 64%
 Thu, Feb 5 292 @Arkansas Little Rock W 76 - 75 51%
 Thu, Feb 12 203 Tennessee Martin W 73 - 72 54%
 Sat, Feb 14 238 Southeast Missouri St. W 79 - 76 60%
 Thu, Feb 19 230 @Tennessee St. L 79 - 83 37%
 Sat, Feb 21 333 @Tennessee Tech W 78 - 75 63%
 Thu, Feb 26 321 Eastern Illinois W 75 - 67 78%
 Sat, Feb 28 362 @Western Illinois W 77 - 68 79%
Totals 16 - 12 13 - 7 -4 -5 D C+ D +0 C C- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.6 5.5 6.7 2.6 15.5 1st
2nd 0.9 9.4 13.4 3.8 0.1 27.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 5.9 12.6 2.4 0.0 21.2 3rd
4th 0.0 2.0 10.2 3.1 0.0 15.4 4th
5th 0.4 5.3 4.2 0.1 9.9 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 4.1 0.5 6.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.1 0.7 0.0 3.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.9 4.7 12.2 21.7 25.8 21.4 10.5 2.7 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 95.7% 2.6    2.1 0.5
15-5 63.9% 6.7    3.1 3.2 0.4 0.0
14-6 25.9% 5.5    0.8 2.6 1.8 0.4 0.0
13-7 2.5% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 15.5% 15.5 6.0 6.3 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 2.7% 36.8% 36.8% 14.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 1.7
15-5 10.5% 31.3% 31.3% 15.2 0.2 2.1 1.0 7.2
14-6 21.4% 25.9% 25.9% 15.6 0.1 2.1 3.4 15.9
13-7 25.8% 17.0% 17.0% 15.8 0.0 1.0 3.4 21.4
12-8 21.7% 8.0% 8.0% 15.8 0.3 1.4 20.0
11-9 12.2% 4.2% 4.2% 15.9 0.0 0.5 11.7
10-10 4.7% 4.5% 4.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 4.4
9-11 0.9% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.0 0.8
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 15.5 83.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 14.4 6.6 51.0 42.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%