Lindenwood
Ohio Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.4 #240
Expected Predictive Rating -2.8 #216
Pace 77.0 #30
Improvement -0.3 #198

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #279 F B- D+ C B-
Defense #184 C C- C C D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #20 1.12 #224 +3.8 #63
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #181 0.57 #352 -2.0 #276
Three Pointers 33% #322 0.79 #360 -7.6 #350
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #329 -5.8 #329
Freethrows 17.9 #155 68% #300 12.2 #204
Second Chance 32.3% #135 1.11 #106 0.36 #100
Turnovers 17.8% #254
Total Offense -3.9 #279

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #21 1.23 #273 -6.1 #348
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #250 0.58 #10 +2.5 #25
Three Pointers 36% #307 1.00 #169 +2.7 #88
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #206 -0.8 #207
Freethrows 18.2 #228 68% #40 12.4 #180
Second Chance 31.0% #197 1.10 #249 0.34 #227
Turnovers 16.7% #180
Total Defense -0.4 #184

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #98 1.8% #327
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -12.5% #343 -0.1% #178
Possession Length 15.8 #56 16.7 #98
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #46 0.19 #247
Improvement -0.2 #197 -0.1 #199

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.6% 19.6% 12.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.6
.500 or above 78.7% 84.8% 62.8%
.500 or above in Conference 91.4% 94.8% 82.4%
Conference Champion 25.0% 29.7% 12.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four3.7% 3.8% 3.4%
First Round15.9% 17.9% 10.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Home) - 72.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 31 - 31 - 6
Quad 415 - 717 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 17 @Texas Tech L 60 - 98 2%  -19  0 - 1 -18 -10 F F D+ -5 C+ A F
 Mon, Nov 10 29 @Saint Louis L 66 - 109 3%  -22  0 - 2 -26 -7 C A+ F -13 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 14 225 Charleston Southern W 83 - 77 47%  -6  1 - 2 +2 +0 B- F F +1 D+ B+ B+
 Sun, Nov 16 303 @Alabama A&M L 65 - 74 52%  -2  1 - 3 -14 -8 F C F -7 F D B
 Thu, Nov 20 25 @Indiana L 53 - 73 3%  -14  1 - 4 -1 -12 F C+ D- +11 A+ C F
 Mon, Nov 24 343 UMKC W 80 - 67 83%  +6  2 - 4 -2 -3 C F C- +1 D A- A+
 Tue, Dec 2 325 @Northern Illinois W 99 - 64 61%  +22  3 - 4 +28 +17 F A+ A+ +8 C A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 309 @Eastern Illinois W 82 - 74 55%  -1  4 - 4 1 - 0 +2 +8 D+ A C+ -6 A+ F F
 Thu, Dec 18 358 Western Illinois W 92 - 76 89%  +13  5 - 4 2 - 0 -2 +5 C B+ D -8 F D D
 Tue, Dec 23 192 @Missouri St. L 65 - 70 31%  -5  5 - 5 -4 -6 F F A+ +1 B+ F F
 Thu, Jan 1 308 Morehead St. W 77 - 64 76%  +6  6 - 5 3 - 0 +1 -1 A F B- +2 C C C
 Sat, Jan 3 333 Southern Indiana W 83 - 80 81%  +5  7 - 5 4 - 0 -11 +3 F A+ D- -14 F F B+
 Tue, Jan 6 275 @SIU Edwardsville L 62 - 66 47%  -2  7 - 6 4 - 1 -8 -10 F B+ F +2 B C A-
 Sat, Jan 10 299 Arkansas Little Rock W 77 - 71 72% 
 Thu, Jan 15 218 @Southeast Missouri St. L 76 - 80 35% 
 Sat, Jan 17 235 @Tennessee Martin L 71 - 74 38% 
 Thu, Jan 22 313 Tennessee Tech W 81 - 73 77% 
 Sat, Jan 24 219 Tennessee St. W 79 - 77 56% 
 Thu, Jan 29 333 @Southern Indiana W 76 - 73 62% 
 Sat, Jan 31 308 @Morehead St. W 74 - 73 54% 
 Tue, Feb 3 275 SIU Edwardsville W 73 - 68 68% 
 Thu, Feb 5 299 @Arkansas Little Rock W 75 - 74 51% 
 Thu, Feb 12 235 Tennessee Martin W 74 - 71 60% 
 Sat, Feb 14 218 Southeast Missouri St. W 79 - 77 56% 
 Thu, Feb 19 219 @Tennessee St. L 76 - 80 35% 
 Sat, Feb 21 313 @Tennessee Tech W 78 - 76 57% 
 Thu, Feb 26 309 Eastern Illinois W 74 - 67 75% 
 Sat, Feb 28 358 @Western Illinois W 75 - 67 75% 
Totals 16 - 12 13 - 7 -4 -4 F B- D+ +0 C C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.2 4.9 7.9 6.5 3.3 1.1 0.2 25.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 6.0 7.2 3.4 0.6 0.0 18.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 6.2 7.3 2.6 0.2 17.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.8 6.8 2.2 0.2 0.0 14.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.2 4.7 1.6 0.1 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.5 1.5 0.1 7.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 2.0 1.0 0.1 4.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.7 0.1 2.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.4 5.0 8.5 12.1 16.0 16.7 14.9 11.5 7.1 3.3 1.1 0.2 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
17-3 99.5% 3.3    3.1 0.1
16-4 91.6% 6.5    5.2 1.2 0.1
15-5 68.4% 7.9    4.3 3.0 0.5 0.0
14-6 32.6% 4.9    1.3 2.1 1.3 0.2
13-7 7.3% 1.2    0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 25.0% 25.0 15.4 6.9 2.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.2% 61.3% 61.3% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
18-2 1.1% 44.5% 44.5% 14.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.6
17-3 3.3% 39.6% 39.6% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.1 2.0
16-4 7.1% 35.4% 35.4% 15.2 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.8 4.6
15-5 11.5% 32.1% 32.1% 15.4 0.0 0.2 1.8 1.7 7.8
14-6 14.9% 25.1% 25.1% 15.7 0.1 1.2 2.5 11.1
13-7 16.7% 18.5% 18.5% 15.8 0.0 0.6 2.5 13.6
12-8 16.0% 10.2% 10.2% 15.8 0.3 1.4 14.4
11-9 12.1% 5.3% 5.3% 15.9 0.1 0.6 11.5
10-10 8.5% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3 8.3
9-11 5.0% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.9
8-12 2.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 2.4
7-13 0.9% 0.9
6-14 0.3% 0.3
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 17.6% 17.6% 0.0% 15.5 82.4 0.0%