Louisiana Tech
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.8 #228
Expected Predictive Rating -4.9 #243
Pace 60.5 #360
Improvement -0.3 #196

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #311 F D- C D C+
Defense #117 B D+ C C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #80 0.99 #332 -1.2 #228
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #172 0.71 #235 +0.2 #170
Three Pointers 37% #274 0.85 #330 -5.3 #330
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #342 -6.3 #340
Freethrows 15.7 #273 67% #313 10.5 #303
Second Chance 30.3% #199 0.80 #361 0.24 #323
Turnovers 17.1% #210
Total Offense -5.3 #311

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #312 1.05 #62 +4.8 #47
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #359 0.79 #238 +2.6 #21
Three Pointers 54% #6 0.92 #69 -3.8 #319
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #77 +3.6 #73
Freethrows 17.3 #183 72% #156 12.4 #181
Second Chance 34.2% #300 1.03 #173 0.35 #259
Turnovers 17.0% #161
Total Defense +1.5 #117

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.5% #155 1.1% #276
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -13.8% #352 -7.8% #58
Possession Length 18.7 #321 17.9 #286
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #300 0.13 #54
Improvement +1.3 #94 -1.6 #276

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 1.8% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 18.3% 22.6% 7.9%
.500 or above in Conference 21.2% 26.2% 9.4%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 20.1% 12.6% 37.9%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round1.4% 1.7% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Delaware (Home) - 70.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 103 - 14
Quad 49 - 312 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 90 @Nevada L 50 - 77 11%  -16  0 - 1 -18 -13 F F F -8 C F A-
 Sat, Nov 15 342 Jackson St. W 68 - 51 84%  +3  1 - 1 +2 -10 F F F +13 A+ D C+
 Wed, Nov 19 191 @Indiana St. L 51 - 60 32%  -5  1 - 2 -8 -22 F F D+ +14 A+ B+ C-
 Wed, Nov 26 191 Indiana St. W 75 - 73 55%  +1  2 - 2 -3 +3 B A F -6 D- B- D-
 Sat, Nov 29 346 Alcorn St. W 83 - 58 85%  +10  3 - 2 +10 +12 C A- A+ +1 A- C+ D+
 Wed, Dec 3 213 @Georgia Southern L 69 - 77 35%  -4  3 - 3 -8 -2 B F B -6 F F B-
 Sat, Dec 13 310 Louisiana W 65 - 44 78%  +11  4 - 3 +9 -0 D A F +13 B+ A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 176 @Tulane L 53 - 61 29%  -6  4 - 4 -6 -9 F F F +2 A+ F D
 Mon, Dec 29 244 UTEP W 75 - 63 65%  +11  5 - 4 1 - 0 +4 +6 B+ F A+ -0 A+ F A+
 Fri, Jan 2 123 @Middle Tennessee L 51 - 88 20%  -19  5 - 5 1 - 1 -32 -9 D+ F F -30 F B F
 Sun, Jan 4 155 @Western Kentucky L 61 - 66 26%  -7  5 - 6 1 - 2 -2 -6 F B A +3 A+ D- C+
 Thu, Jan 8 99 Liberty L 56 - 72 28%  -8  5 - 7 1 - 3 -14 -10 D+ F A+ -7 A- F D+
 Sat, Jan 10 277 Delaware W 64 - 58 70% 
 Wed, Jan 14 123 Middle Tennessee L 63 - 66 39% 
 Sat, Jan 17 208 @Jacksonville St. L 60 - 64 35% 
 Sat, Jan 24 162 Kennesaw St. L 70 - 71 48% 
 Wed, Jan 28 244 @UTEP L 62 - 64 42% 
 Sat, Jan 31 134 @Sam Houston St. L 65 - 73 22% 
 Wed, Feb 4 136 New Mexico St. L 64 - 66 42% 
 Sat, Feb 7 134 Sam Houston St. L 68 - 70 42% 
 Thu, Feb 12 192 @Missouri St. L 60 - 65 33% 
 Sat, Feb 14 164 @Florida International L 67 - 73 29% 
 Wed, Feb 18 208 Jacksonville St. W 63 - 61 56% 
 Sat, Feb 21 162 @Kennesaw St. L 67 - 73 28% 
 Thu, Feb 26 192 Missouri St. W 63 - 62 55% 
 Sat, Feb 28 164 Florida International L 69 - 70 50% 
 Thu, Mar 5 99 @Liberty L 59 - 71 14% 
 Sat, Mar 7 277 @Delaware L 60 - 61 50% 
Totals 12 - 16 8 - 12 -4 -5 F D- C +2 B D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.2 1.4 0.1 0.0 4.4 4th
5th 0.3 2.7 2.2 0.3 0.0 5.6 5th
6th 0.2 2.4 4.0 0.8 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 5.5 1.9 0.1 9.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 5.8 4.0 0.3 11.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 5.3 5.7 0.9 0.0 13.1 9th
10th 0.1 1.5 5.4 6.7 2.0 0.1 15.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.5 6.1 2.3 0.2 16.6 11th
12th 0.2 0.9 2.7 3.7 3.3 1.1 0.1 12.0 12th
Total 0.2 0.9 3.0 6.0 10.4 13.7 15.7 15.6 13.3 9.7 5.9 3.4 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 33.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 25.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 5.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 7.4% 7.4% 14.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.6% 16.1% 16.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
13-7 1.5% 7.9% 7.9% 13.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.4
12-8 3.4% 7.5% 7.5% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.2
11-9 5.9% 4.7% 4.7% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.6
10-10 9.7% 2.4% 2.4% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 9.4
9-11 13.3% 1.5% 1.5% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 13.1
8-12 15.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 15.4
7-13 15.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 15.6
6-14 13.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.7
5-15 10.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.3
4-16 6.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.0
3-17 3.0% 3.0
2-18 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.9
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 14.8 98.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%