Louisiana Tech
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.2#113
Expected Predictive Rating+4.6#99
Pace63.1#313
Improvement-0.8#221

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#128
First Shot+3.5#83
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#292
Layup/Dunks+4.3#39
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#290
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#98
Freethrows-1.3#270
Improvement-1.8#292

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#133
First Shot+2.7#90
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#282
Layups/Dunks-1.5#238
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#101
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#141
Freethrows+2.1#54
Improvement+1.0#127
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.3% 17.5% 13.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.7 13.2
.500 or above 99.5% 100.0% 99.3%
.500 or above in Conference 85.0% 95.8% 80.8%
Conference Champion 12.0% 26.1% 6.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round14.3% 17.5% 13.0%
Second Round1.4% 2.2% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Liberty (Away) - 28.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 39 - 511 - 9
Quad 48 - 119 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 200   @ Texas Arlington W 92-77 60%     1 - 0 +15.7 +22.1 -5.7
  Nov 13, 2024 152   Massachusetts W 76-66 60%     2 - 0 +10.7 +4.6 +6.0
  Nov 25, 2024 183   Southern Illinois W 85-79 OT 66%     3 - 0 +4.9 -2.5 +6.3
  Nov 26, 2024 220   Richmond W 65-62 73%     4 - 0 -0.2 -1.6 +1.7
  Nov 27, 2024 231   Eastern Kentucky W 78-69 75%     5 - 0 +5.1 +8.3 -2.4
  Nov 30, 2024 224   Southern L 70-73 81%     5 - 1 -8.9 -2.5 -6.4
  Dec 04, 2024 41   @ Memphis L 71-81 15%     5 - 2 +4.1 +7.4 -3.4
  Dec 08, 2024 301   @ Louisiana W 69-58 79%     6 - 2 +5.7 +0.0 +6.5
  Dec 13, 2024 254   Georgia Southern W 77-63 85%     7 - 2 +6.2 +7.1 +0.2
  Dec 16, 2024 74   Grand Canyon W 74-66 43%     8 - 2 +13.1 +8.2 +5.2
  Jan 02, 2025 143   @ UTEP L 60-70 48%     8 - 3 0 - 1 -6.3 -6.8 -0.1
  Jan 04, 2025 166   @ New Mexico St. L 48-78 53%     8 - 4 0 - 2 -27.5 -14.4 -17.7
  Jan 09, 2025 243   Florida International W 81-64 84%     9 - 4 1 - 2 +9.6 +15.1 -3.9
  Jan 11, 2025 90   Liberty W 79-74 48%     10 - 4 2 - 2 +8.7 +9.2 -0.5
  Jan 16, 2025 130   @ Jacksonville St. L 61-63 46%     10 - 5 2 - 3 +2.3 +4.3 -2.5
  Jan 18, 2025 170   @ Kennesaw St. L 76-78 53%     10 - 6 2 - 4 +0.3 +9.7 -9.4
  Jan 23, 2025 115   Western Kentucky W 77-67 61%     11 - 6 3 - 4 +10.4 +7.1 +3.4
  Jan 25, 2025 120   Middle Tennessee W 75-69 63%     12 - 6 4 - 4 +5.8 +3.9 +2.1
  Feb 01, 2025 181   Sam Houston St. W 66-61 OT 74%     13 - 6 5 - 4 +1.4 -12.4 +13.7
  Feb 06, 2025 90   @ Liberty L 63-68 28%    
  Feb 08, 2025 243   @ Florida International W 72-66 68%    
  Feb 13, 2025 170   Kennesaw St. W 76-70 73%    
  Feb 15, 2025 130   Jacksonville St. W 70-66 67%    
  Feb 20, 2025 120   @ Middle Tennessee L 68-70 42%    
  Feb 22, 2025 115   @ Western Kentucky L 72-74 40%    
  Mar 01, 2025 181   @ Sam Houston St. W 72-70 55%    
  Mar 06, 2025 166   New Mexico St. W 69-63 72%    
  Mar 08, 2025 143   UTEP W 72-67 68%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1.0 5.6 4.6 0.8 12.0 1st
2nd 0.5 7.3 6.2 0.8 14.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 4.7 10.0 1.3 15.9 3rd
4th 1.2 11.4 3.2 0.0 15.9 4th
5th 0.3 6.5 7.1 0.2 14.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.3 8.4 1.2 11.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 5.1 2.7 0.0 9.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.8 2.2 0.2 5.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.1 0.9 4.2 9.8 19.1 24.9 21.7 13.1 5.5 0.8 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.8    0.7 0.1
13-5 84.6% 4.6    2.5 1.9 0.2
12-6 42.9% 5.6    0.9 2.7 1.7 0.3
11-7 4.4% 1.0    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.0% 12.0 4.2 4.8 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.8% 30.5% 30.5% 11.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.6
13-5 5.5% 20.6% 20.6% 12.3 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 4.3
12-6 13.1% 20.7% 20.7% 12.6 0.0 1.1 1.5 0.2 10.4
11-7 21.7% 16.6% 16.6% 13.0 0.9 2.1 0.7 0.0 18.1
10-8 24.9% 14.8% 14.8% 13.2 0.4 2.1 1.1 0.1 21.2
9-9 19.1% 9.9% 9.9% 13.4 0.1 1.0 0.7 0.1 17.2
8-10 9.8% 7.4% 7.4% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 9.1
7-11 4.2% 6.7% 6.7% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.9
6-12 0.9% 3.3% 3.3% 15.0 0.0 0.9
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 13.0 0.2 3.4 7.1 3.3 0.4 0.0 85.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 11.8 24.0 72.0 4.0