Louisiana Tech
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.1 215
Results Rating -1.9 196
Pace 62.3 335
Improvement +2.8 76

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 319 D D+ D D- C
Defense B- 100 B- D+ C+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 46 D 53% 306 +0.7 152
2 Pt. Jumpers 45% 93 C 37% 195 +1.3 109
Three Pointers 32% 339 F+ 29% 347 -6.9 348
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 194 D- -4.9 333
1st FG Attempt D 0.92 328
Second Chance B- 34.3% 75 F 0.78 364 D+ 0.27 280
Turnovers D 18.9% 305
Freethrows D+ 0.27 276 F 64% 365 D- 0.17 344
Total Offense D -5.8 319

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 52% 120 C- 12.3% 263
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 17% 299 C- 5.7% 228
Three Pointers D+ 79% 283 B- 0.5% 78
Total D+ 51% 290 D 6.9% 311

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 258 B+ 51% 23 -4.1 52
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 305 C 38% 173 -1.6 63
Three Pointers 47% 30 C+ 33% 121 +2.4 293
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.3 234 B -3.5 52
1st FG Attempt B- 0.96 76
Second Chance D+ 32.7% 278 C- 1.07 240 D+ 0.35 278
Turnovers C+ 17.9% 119
Freethrows C- 0.31 218 C+ 72% 147 C 0.23 215
Total Defense B- +2.7 100

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 42% 53 A 19.3% 13
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 259 C 5.2% 152
Three Pointers D 88% 300 B 1.7% 53
Total C- 58% 234 A- 8.6% 22

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.3 281 18.1 299
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 205 0.14 75
Improvement +1.6 #109 +1.2 #116

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 246 214 179
Results Rating Rank 260 198 160
Conference Record 8 - 12 10 - 10 11 - 9
Conference Finish 8 5 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3% 4% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 45% 61% 23%
.500 or above in Conference 62% 81% 34%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 1%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round3% 4% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Missouri St. (Home) - 58.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 83 - 11
Quad 411 - 415 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 78 @Nevada L 50 - 77 11% -16  1% 0 - 1 F+ -16 F -15 F D F+ D+ -4 B- F B
 Sat, Nov 15 337 Jackson St. W 68 - 51 86% +3  59% 1 - 1 C+ +2 F -14 F D+ F+ A+ +17 A+ C- B-
 Wed, Nov 19 213 @Indiana St. L 51 - 60 38% -5  1% 1 - 2 D -9 F -25 F D- D+ A+ +17 A+ A- D+
 Wed, Nov 26 213 Indiana St. W 75 - 73 61% +1  57% 2 - 2 C- -4 C- -1 C A+ F D+ -3 D+ B+ F+
 Sat, Nov 29 345 Alcorn St. W 83 - 58 88% +10  98% 3 - 2 B +9 B+ +9 C A- A+ B- +3 B- B- B-
 Wed, Dec 3 266 @Georgia Southern L 69 - 77 50% -4  17% 3 - 3 D -11 D- -6 B- F B- D -5 F+ F C+
 Sat, Dec 13 291 Louisiana W 65 - 44 76% +11  92% 4 - 3 B +10 D+ -3 D- B+ F A+ +17 A- A A+
 Wed, Dec 17 162 @Tulane L 53 - 61 29% -6  4% 4 - 4 D+ -5 F -10 F F+ F B +4 A+ F D
 Mon, Dec 29 243 UTEP W 75 - 63 66% +11  97% 5 - 4 1 - 0 C+ +5 B- +4 A- F A- C+ +2 A F A+
 Fri, Jan 2 167 @Middle Tennessee L 51 - 88 29% -19  2% 5 - 5 1 - 1 F -34 F -13 F+ D- F F -28 F A- F+
 Sun, Jan 4 147 @Western Kentucky L 61 - 66 26% -7  0% 5 - 6 1 - 2 C -1 D- -7 F C+ A B +5 A D- C+
 Thu, Jan 8 107 Liberty L 56 - 72 35% -8  2% 5 - 7 1 - 3 F+ -15 F -14 D- F A D+ -3 A F D+
 Sat, Jan 10 265 Delaware W 70 - 68 OT 71% -5  3% 6 - 7 2 - 3 D+ -7 D- -6 F C C- C -1 C+ F C
 Wed, Jan 14 167 Middle Tennessee W 59 - 58 51% -10  6% 7 - 7 3 - 3 C- -2 F -14 F F A A+ +11 A+ F A-
 Sat, Jan 17 196 @Jacksonville St. L 60 - 64 35% -10  0% 7 - 8 3 - 4 C- -3 C- -2 F+ B+ C- C- -2 C D B-
 Fri, Jan 23 165 Kennesaw St. W 82 - 76 51% -2  31% 8 - 8 4 - 4 C+ +3 A- +10 A A C- D- -7 C+ D D-
 Wed, Jan 28 243 @UTEP W 69 - 59 44% +6  77% 9 - 8 5 - 4 B +9 C +0 C C F A +9 A B- C
 Sat, Jan 31 114 @Sam Houston St. L 67 - 83 19% -6  1% 9 - 9 5 - 5 D -10 C- -1 F A+ D F -10 C+ F F
 Wed, Feb 4 163 New Mexico St. L 63 - 72 51% -2  14% 9 - 10 5 - 6 D- -12 F+ -9 D+ D F D+ -4 F C+ A
 Sat, Feb 7 114 Sam Houston St. W 87 - 78 38% -0  35% 10 - 10 6 - 6 B +9 C+ +3 C C C+ B +5 C- A- A-
 Thu, Feb 12 204 @Missouri St. W 79 - 78 2OT 36% -1  31% 11 - 10 7 - 6 C +2 F -11 C F F A+ +12 A+ F B+
 Sat, Feb 14 184 @Florida International L 64 - 77 33% -4  13% 11 - 11 7 - 7 D- -12 D- -8 C F D- D+ -4 C- F A+
 Wed, Feb 18 196 Jacksonville St. W 77 - 71 58% +11  94% 12 - 11 8 - 7 C +1 C -0 A+ D- F C+ +1 D+ B+ C
 Sat, Feb 21 165 @Kennesaw St. L 55 - 58 29% -1  34% 12 - 12 8 - 8 C -0 F -18 F D- F A+ +18 A+ A B
 Thu, Feb 26 204 Missouri St. W 66 - 64 58%
 Sat, Feb 28 184 Florida International W 70 - 69 55%
 Thu, Mar 5 107 @Liberty L 62 - 72 17%
 Sat, Mar 7 265 @Delaware L 62 - 63 49%
Totals 14 - 14 10 - 10 -3 D -6 A+ D- C B- +3 F+ F D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D C F+ D- 44% 45% 32% C D B- F D+ D D+ F D- B- B+ C C+ B 36% 17% 47% C- B- D+ C- D+ C+ C- C+ C
1.00 53% 37% 29% -5 0 0.92 34% 0.8 .27 19% .27 64% .17 1.05 51% 38% 33% -3 0 0.96 33% 1.1 .35 18% .31 72% .20
Nov
4		 Nevada F C- F F F 43% 9% 48% A- F D D+ D F+ C+ F+ C- D+ A- F B+ B- 30% 33% 37% A- B- F F F B F C+ F
0.80 53% 25% 14% -18 +2 0.70 22% 1.1 .25 21% .34 65% .22 1.23 46% 50% 31% -1 -2 0.95 49% 1.2 .60 16% .53 75% .40
Nov
15		 Jackson St. F F F F F 63% 12% 26% A F A F D+ F+ A+ F A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 7% 61% F A+ B F C- B- D C D
0.99 48% 0% 27% -13 +3 0.81 46% 0.7 .34 19% .56 58% .32 0.75 27% 0% 21% -24 +1 0.57 23% 1.2 .27 20% .31 76% .24
Nov
19		 Indiana St. F F F F F 46% 30% 24% C- F D+ F+ D- D+ A F C A+ A+ A+ B A+ 34% 2% 64% C A+ A+ C+ A- D+ B+ F B-
0.71 28% 31% 15% -23 -1 0.56 29% 0.8 .23 17% .34 55% .18 0.84 39% 0% 29% -12 +2 0.83 17% 1.0 .17 17% .20 75% .15
Nov
26		 Indiana St. C- C A+ F C+ 43% 33% 24% D C B- A+ A+ F F A+ F D+ F A+ A+ D+ 54% 8% 38% D D+ A+ F B+ F+ A F B-
1.11 57% 56% 23% +1 -1 1.02 37% 1.5 .53 19% .13 86% .11 1.08 79% 0% 25% +3 +3 1.13 15% 1.3 .19 15% .17 90% .16
Nov
29		 Alcorn St. B+ B- D- A C+ 44% 23% 33% D- C A C- A- A+ F F F B- A C- D+ B+ 51% 24% 24% D- B- F A+ B- B- F A+ D
1.31 65% 33% 41% +6 0 1.13 48% 1.2 .58 13% .16 56% .09 0.92 43% 36% 36% -7 0 0.89 38% 0.5 .19 21% .42 48% .20
Dec
3		 Georgia Southern D- B- A+ D- B- 45% 14% 41% C+ B- F F F B- D- F F D F F A- F 35% 6% 59% D+ F+ C F F C+ C+ D- C-
1.03 64% 71% 30% +5 +1 1.14 23% 0.6 .13 16% .30 53% .16 1.15 76% 67% 28% +2 +2 1.10 27% 1.5 .40 16% .32 78% .25
Dec
13		 Louisiana D+ C F F F 52% 12% 36% B+ D- A C- B+ F B A+ A A+ A+ C+ C+ A 26% 26% 49% D- A- F A+ A A+ F+ A+ C
1.08 59% 20% 27% -6 +2 0.95 43% 1.0 .43 25% .42 84% .35 0.73 27% 36% 33% -9 -2 0.81 34% 0.3 .11 27% .29 54% .16
Dec
17		 Tulane F F B F F 51% 16% 33% B+ F A+ F F+ F A- A A+ B B- F A+ A+ 28% 13% 59% C- A+ F F+ F D F C F
0.90 43% 43% 13% -17 +2 0.71 46% 0.5 .22 22% .39 78% .31 1.04 55% 80% 13% -14 0 0.74 29% 1.3 .38 12% .60 77% .46
Dec
29		 UTEP B- F A+ A+ A- 36% 17% 48% B- A- C- F F A- A+ F A+ C+ A+ B A- A+ 17% 22% 61% C- A F F+ F A+ D- F F
1.17 27% 57% 55% +7 0 1.17 32% 0.4 .14 14% .61 59% .36 0.98 38% 30% 29% -10 -2 0.78 42% 1.1 .47 23% .32 81% .26
Jan
2		 Middle Tennessee F C A- F F+ 37% 24% 39% D+ F+ C F D- F A F B+ F F A+ F F 13% 8% 79% C- F D+ A+ A- F+ A+ A+ A+
0.87 57% 44% 20% -7 -1 0.87 26% 0.8 .19 22% .42 68% .29 1.51 100% 25% 58% +33 0 1.67 32% 0.6 .19 12% .16 25% .04
Jan
4		 Western Kentucky D- D- F+ F F 31% 37% 31% F F B C- C+ A D- F F B A+ A A A+ 23% 9% 68% C- A B+ F D- C+ F D- F
0.94 50% 32% 25% -9 -3 0.78 33% 0.9 .29 14% .34 47% .16 1.02 30% 25% 27% -15 0 0.73 28% 1.5 .40 15% .45 80% .36
Jan
8		 Liberty F F D+ A F+ 34% 22% 44% C- D- D- F F A D+ F F D+ B+ A+ C- A 46% 8% 46% B- A F D- F D+ D F F
0.92 29% 36% 41% -6 0 0.90 26% 0.5 .14 13% .21 45% .09 1.18 55% 25% 36% -1 +2 1.04 29% 1.1 .32 11% .30 81% .24
Jan
10		 Delaware D- C F F+ F 36% 34% 30% D F B- D C C- A+ F A+ C A D+ D- B- 36% 15% 49% D C+ C F F C D+ B C-
1.06 59% 25% 29% -7 -2 0.85 33% 0.9 .31 15% .53 63% .34 1.03 47% 43% 39% +1 +1 1.04 20% 1.5 .30 18% .28 73% .20
Jan
14		 Middle Tennessee F F C+ F F 65% 15% 19% A F D+ F F A B C B A+ A+ A+ C- A+ 47% 16% 38% F A+ D- F F A- F A+ C
0.91 44% 38% 10% -16 +3 0.75 23% 0.7 .15 11% .36 76% .28 0.90 43% 14% 35% -10 +1 0.84 34% 1.2 .40 20% .35 50% .17
Jan
17		 Jacksonville St. C- F A- F D- 40% 31% 29% F+ F+ A+ F B+ C- F+ A+ C- C- B A+ F+ C 45% 9% 45% D+ C C- D- D B- D+ F F+
1.03 47% 46% 25% -6 -1 0.88 44% 0.9 .38 17% .27 92% .25 1.10 50% 0% 40% -3 +2 1.00 30% 1.1 .33 19% .38 78% .30
Jan
23		 Kennesaw St. A- D A+ A+ A 48% 22% 30% C A A B A C- B F C- D- A+ F C- B- 43% 15% 43% C C+ C- D- D D- F C F
1.25 50% 60% 50% +8 +1 1.20 39% 1.1 .43 17% .44 67% .29 1.16 40% 57% 35% -4 +1 0.96 36% 1.1 .39 14% .58 70% .41
Jan
28		 UTEP C F A+ A C 38% 30% 32% D+ C B+ F+ C F C+ B+ B- A A+ A+ C+ A+ 29% 27% 44% C- A B- B B- C F F F
1.07 39% 57% 40% +1 -1 1.02 41% 0.8 .34 25% .37 78% .29 0.91 43% 15% 33% -11 -1 0.77 24% 0.9 .22 17% .35 89% .32
Jan
31		 Sam Houston St. C- F C- F F 36% 30% 34% D F A A+ A+ D B F C F C- C A+ B 59% 17% 24% F C+ D F F F F B+ F
1.03 41% 36% 25% -11 -1 0.77 41% 1.3 .54 18% .36 63% .23 1.28 59% 38% 27% -2 +2 1.02 39% 1.3 .52 9% .61 67% .41
Feb
4		 New Mexico St. F+ B F B- C- 31% 24% 44% C- D+ A+ F D F A+ F C D+ C F F F 42% 22% 36% F+ F D- B+ C+ A C- A- C+
0.99 64% 9% 35% -4 -1 0.91 48% 0.6 .30 20% .50 56% .28 1.13 58% 50% 44% +8 0 1.18 37% 0.8 .30 19% .29 67% .19
Feb
7		 Sam Houston St. C+ C A+ F D+ 60% 17% 23% A C A+ F C C+ A+ B A+ B A+ D F D+ 30% 22% 48% B+ C- A+ F A- A- F C F+
1.14 59% 67% 8% -3 +2 1.00 43% 0.7 .31 16% .54 74% .40 1.02 38% 42% 46% +3 -1 1.07 18% 1.5 .26 21% .35 71% .25
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
12		 Missouri St. F A+ C C- B- 25% 49% 25% F C C+ F F F F F+ F A+ C A A+ A+ 22% 36% 42% A+ A+ F C- F B+ D+ D D
0.92 87% 38% 33% +7 -5 1.07 33% 0.3 .10 23% .27 67% .18 0.91 62% 24% 20% -13 -3 0.69 41% 1.2 .47 21% .38 69% .26
Feb
14		 Florida International D- B- F+ D- C- 53% 12% 35% B+ C F F F D- D F F D+ C+ B+ F D+ 43% 21% 36% C+ C- F C+ F A+ D A- C
0.95 62% 33% 29% -1 +2 1.04 26% 0.8 .19 24% .27 57% .16 1.14 55% 30% 41% +1 0 1.04 52% 1.0 .52 24% .35 61% .21
Feb
18		 Jacksonville St. C A+ F B+ A+ 50% 15% 35% B A+ C- F D- F C+ F F+ C+ A+ C+ F D- 36% 19% 45% A- D+ B+ B B+ C D+ B+ C
1.10 83% 29% 38% +13 +2 1.30 26% 0.9 .22 21% .34 58% .20 1.01 41% 33% 48% +2 0 1.06 24% 0.9 .21 17% .38 64% .24
Feb
21		 Kennesaw St. F D- C F F+ 36% 31% 33% F F A+ F D- F C- B C A+ A+ F A+ A+ 45% 8% 47% D- A+ A- A+ A B C+ A B
0.81 47% 38% 29% -7 -2 0.86 43% 0.5 .22 27% .38 79% .30 0.86 41% 75% 22% -13 +2 0.80 28% 0.7 .21 19% .33 61% .20



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.5 2nd
3rd 2.6 9.3 2.7 14.7 3rd
4th 0.7 15.4 9.4 0.4 26.0 4th
5th 5.7 14.5 1.3 21.6 5th
6th 0.0 11.9 4.8 0.0 16.8 6th
7th 1.1 9.6 0.4 11.2 7th
8th 3.8 1.7 5.5 8th
9th 3.1 0.0 3.1 9th
10th 0.7 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 8.8 29.7 37.9 20.2 3.5 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 3.5% 8.7% 8.7% 13.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.2
11-9 20.2% 5.1% 5.1% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.1 19.2
10-10 37.9% 2.9% 2.9% 15.3 0.1 0.7 0.4 36.7
9-11 29.7% 1.3% 1.3% 15.6 0.2 0.2 29.3
8-12 8.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 8.8
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 15.0 97.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 13.9 24.4 57.8 17.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1%
Lose Out 5.4%