Loyola Maryland
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.6 #318
Expected Predictive Rating -12.2 #341
Pace 69.7 #155
Improvement +3.2 #53

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #270 C- C- D+ D+ B-
Defense #336 D D- D C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #245 1.10 #250 -2.4 #266
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #318 0.72 #234 -3.1 #325
Three Pointers 50% #21 0.94 #284 +2.8 #86
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #255 -2.7 #258
Freethrows 0.27 #289 70% #249 0.19 #290
Second Chance 28.1% #253 1.04 #160 0.29 #226
Turnovers 18.2% #279
Total Offense -3.7 #270

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #103 1.32 #345 -5.3 #342
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #121 0.87 #336 -2.2 #331
Three Pointers 36% #308 1.01 #169 +2.6 #80
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #317 -4.9 #326
Freethrows 0.29 #153 75% #321 0.22 #162
Second Chance 32.7% #274 1.23 #357 0.40 #343
Turnovers 14.5% #310
Total Defense -5.9 #336

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #79 0.1% #174
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.3% #292 8.8% #328
Possession Length 17.9 #245 16.6 #64
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #300 0.21 #310
Improvement +0.4 #150 +2.7 #44

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.8% 3.3% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 23.5% 33.9% 10.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 18.7% 10.8% 28.8%
First Four2.7% 3.2% 2.1%
First Round1.4% 1.8% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lehigh (Home) - 56.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 50 - 7
Quad 410 - 1310 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 155 Towson L 56 - 67 18% -4  0 - 1 -11 -11 F+ F C- -1 C- C D+
 Tue, Nov 11 324 NJIT L 64 - 66 63% +1  0 - 2 -15 -12 F+ B- F -4 B- F C
 Sat, Nov 15 328 Stonehill W 74 - 63 53% +3  1 - 2 +1 +6 B+ C+ C+ -5 F C A-
 Sun, Nov 16 272 @Fairfield L 82 - 85 27% -4  1 - 3 -6 +5 A- F D- -11 C- F F
 Wed, Nov 19 113 @Duquesne L 78 - 92 8% -12  1 - 4 -8 +3 B C- C+ -10 D F A-
 Fri, Nov 21 26 @Kentucky L 46 - 88 1% -26  1 - 5 -23 -19 F C- F -3 C C D+
 Sun, Nov 30 364 Coppin St. W 95 - 84 89% +7  2 - 5 -12 +10 A A F -23 F C F
 Wed, Dec 3 251 @Hampton L 71 - 93 24% -15  2 - 6 -24 -4 F A+ F -19 F A- D
 Tue, Dec 9 356 @VMI L 70 - 86 57% -15  2 - 7 -27 -2 F+ C+ C- -27 F F F
 Sat, Dec 13 289 Mount St. Mary's L 73 - 81 53% -5  2 - 8 -18 -7 B- F D -11 F F B+
 Sun, Dec 21 84 @George Mason L 79 - 86 5% +1  2 - 9 +3 +14 C+ A+ B- -12 B F F
 Wed, Dec 31 244 @American L 69 - 84 23% -10  2 - 10 0 - 1 -17 -0 B- D- F -17 F D+ D-
 Sat, Jan 3 310 Lafayette L 64 - 79 59% -15  2 - 11 0 - 2 -27 -9 D- F C+ -19 F+ F F+
 Wed, Jan 7 336 @Army W 84 - 76 OT 44% +3  3 - 11 1 - 2 -0 +2 D- C+ D+ -3 B D- F
 Sat, Jan 10 315 @Bucknell L 67 - 70 38% -1  3 - 12 1 - 3 -9 -6 C F F -3 C F C
 Wed, Jan 14 222 Colgate L 80 - 86 38% -3  3 - 13 1 - 4 -12 +0 C- D- A+ -13 C D- F+
 Sat, Jan 17 290 Boston University W 74 - 57 53% +1  4 - 13 2 - 4 +7 -8 F A+ C+ +15 A+ A- A
 Mon, Jan 19 301 @Lehigh L 81 - 88 33% +2  4 - 14 2 - 5 -12 +9 A- D- A -22 F F+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 315 Bucknell W 67 - 62 61% +2  5 - 14 3 - 5 -7 -4 F+ C+ F -3 B F F
 Wed, Jan 28 244 American W 77 - 68 43% +8  6 - 14 4 - 5 +1 -3 F B B- +3 C A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 179 @Navy L 71 - 87 14% -8  6 - 15 4 - 6 -14 +7 B- D+ D+ -22 F F D+
 Wed, Feb 4 301 Lehigh W 74 - 72 56%
 Sat, Feb 7 290 @Boston University L 72 - 77 31%
 Wed, Feb 11 310 @Lafayette L 72 - 76 36%
 Sun, Feb 15 323 Holy Cross W 75 - 72 63%
 Wed, Feb 18 336 Army W 79 - 74 66%
 Sat, Feb 21 222 @Colgate L 72 - 81 19%
 Wed, Feb 25 179 Navy L 69 - 74 31%
 Sat, Feb 28 323 @Holy Cross L 72 - 75 41%
Totals 9 - 20 7 - 11 -10 -4 C- C- D+ -6 D D- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 2.1 0.8 0.1 3.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.9 7.3 3.4 0.3 13.0 4th
5th 0.8 9.4 6.6 0.4 17.2 5th
6th 0.1 6.8 9.7 0.9 17.5 6th
7th 2.0 12.2 2.4 0.0 16.6 7th
8th 0.3 6.7 5.9 0.1 13.0 8th
9th 0.0 3.0 6.8 0.8 10.6 9th
10th 1.3 4.5 1.7 0.0 7.5 10th
Total 1.3 7.8 17.3 26.5 23.6 15.6 6.2 1.6 0.2 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.2% 20.0% 20.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 1.6% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.1 1.5
10-8 6.2% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.4 5.8
9-9 15.6% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.8 14.9
8-10 23.6% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.8 22.7
7-11 26.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.4 26.1
6-12 17.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 17.2
5-13 7.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.7
4-14 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 16.0 97.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%