Missouri St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.1 #192
Expected Predictive Rating -1.9 #199
Pace 62.6 #338
Improvement +4.1 #22

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #209 C- C C C D+
Defense #186 C- C C+ D+ A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #321 1.33 #31 -0.5 #200
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #129 0.61 #334 -0.6 #207
Three Pointers 44% #124 0.92 #289 -0.4 #195
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #214 -1.5 #214
Freethrows 20.1 #59 65% #347 13.0 #163
Second Chance 32.6% #127 0.99 #250 0.32 #164
Turnovers 16.7% #182
Total Offense -1.6 #209

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #350 1.34 #346 +2.4 #95
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #8 0.76 #186 -3.8 #359
Three Pointers 40% #210 1.05 #231 -0.3 #194
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #233 -1.6 #233
Freethrows 20.2 #313 70% #65 14.0 #82
Second Chance 33.0% #271 1.00 #136 0.33 #202
Turnovers 17.3% #136
Total Defense -0.5 #186

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.5% #275 -3.8% #9
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.6% #196 7.3% #312
Possession Length 18.6 #315 17.8 #270
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #167 0.15 #113
Improvement +3.0 #26 +1.0 #113

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.0% 4.8% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.5
.500 or above 39.2% 50.2% 25.9%
.500 or above in Conference 59.7% 71.6% 45.3%
Conference Champion 3.5% 5.3% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 1.3% 4.5%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round3.9% 4.7% 3.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida International (Home) - 54.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 34 - 84 - 13
Quad 49 - 314 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 11 126 Arkansas St. L 85 - 86 46%  +7  0 - 1 -2 +1 C C C- -3 C+ C B-
 Sat, Nov 15 156 @Texas Arlington L 49 - 67 31%  -7  0 - 2 -15 -18 F F F +2 F A- C+
 Sat, Nov 22 220 UT Rio Grande Valley W 74 - 67 65%  -2  1 - 2 +1 +7 C+ D A+ -6 A- F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 209 LIU Brooklyn L 61 - 75 63%  +1  1 - 3 -20 -8 F B B -13 F D+ C+
 Sat, Dec 6 81 @Tulsa L 74 - 98 13%  -14  1 - 4 -14 +6 A+ D- F -21 F B F
 Fri, Dec 12 97 @Xavier L 57 - 75 16%  -7  1 - 5 -10 -5 F D D- -6 D C D
 Tue, Dec 16 298 Oral Roberts W 63 - 62 79%  +2  2 - 5 -10 -8 D+ F B- -2 B C D+
 Tue, Dec 23 240 Lindenwood W 70 - 65 69%  +5  3 - 5 -2 -4 F B+ A +1 B A+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 277 @Delaware W 61 - 43 56%  +12  4 - 5 1 - 0 +14 -2 C- F D +19 A+ D+ A+
 Fri, Jan 2 244 UTEP W 79 - 55 71%  +16  5 - 5 2 - 0 +16 +20 B A+ B +2 C C+ B
 Sun, Jan 4 136 New Mexico St. W 89 - 82 48%  +8  6 - 5 3 - 0 +5 +13 A A+ D+ -8 D C- B-
 Wed, Jan 7 162 @Kennesaw St. L 80 - 90 32%  -8  6 - 6 3 - 1 -7 +4 C B D+ -11 F D- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 164 Florida International W 74 - 73 55% 
 Wed, Jan 14 155 @Western Kentucky L 71 - 76 32% 
 Sat, Jan 17 123 @Middle Tennessee L 65 - 72 25% 
 Thu, Jan 22 136 @New Mexico St. L 65 - 72 27% 
 Sat, Jan 24 244 @UTEP L 66 - 67 49% 
 Wed, Jan 28 134 Sam Houston St. L 73 - 74 48% 
 Sat, Jan 31 208 Jacksonville St. W 67 - 64 62% 
 Sat, Feb 7 99 @Liberty L 64 - 74 17% 
 Thu, Feb 12 228 Louisiana Tech W 65 - 60 67% 
 Sat, Feb 14 277 Delaware W 68 - 60 75% 
 Wed, Feb 18 162 Kennesaw St. W 75 - 74 54% 
 Sat, Feb 21 164 @Florida International L 71 - 76 34% 
 Thu, Feb 26 228 @Louisiana Tech L 62 - 63 45% 
 Sat, Feb 28 134 @Sam Houston St. L 70 - 77 27% 
 Thu, Mar 5 155 Western Kentucky W 74 - 73 53% 
 Sat, Mar 7 123 Middle Tennessee L 68 - 69 45% 
Totals 13 - 15 10 - 10 -2 -2 C- C C -1 C- C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 3.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 3.4 2.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 9.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 4.6 3.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 10.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 5.4 4.3 0.9 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 4.6 5.8 1.2 0.1 12.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.9 6.6 1.9 0.1 11.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 6.1 3.2 0.2 11.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.7 4.2 0.5 0.0 10.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.3 0.9 0.0 8.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.1 1.2 0.0 6.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.0 0.1 3.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.1 12th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.0 7.9 11.9 14.5 16.1 15.0 11.6 8.3 4.9 2.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 94.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 87.3% 0.3    0.2 0.1
16-4 67.4% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
15-5 43.9% 1.1    0.6 0.5 0.1
14-6 20.8% 1.0    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 4.5% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 1.6 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.3% 23.8% 23.8% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
16-4 0.9% 19.0% 19.0% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7
15-5 2.6% 14.2% 14.2% 13.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.2
14-6 4.9% 11.2% 11.2% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 4.3
13-7 8.3% 8.2% 8.2% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 7.6
12-8 11.6% 7.4% 7.4% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 10.7
11-9 15.0% 4.2% 4.2% 14.9 0.1 0.5 0.0 14.3
10-10 16.1% 2.2% 2.2% 15.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 15.7
9-11 14.5% 1.1% 1.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 14.4
8-12 11.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.8
7-13 7.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.8
6-14 4.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.0
5-15 1.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.5
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 14.3 96.0 0.0%