Missouri St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -2.4 204
Results Rating -3.7 230
Pace 64.5 291
Improvement +1.9 109

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 214 C- B- C- C+ D
Defense C- 200 D+ C- C+ D- A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 338 B+ 66% 35 -1.7 243
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 143 D- 31% 352 +0.2 167
Three Pointers 43% 139 C- 32% 252 +0.1 174
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.1 321 C -0.4 186
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 221
Second Chance C+ 31.8% 142 B- 1.10 74 B- 0.35 92
Turnovers C- 17.5% 226
Freethrows B 0.35 50 F+ 66% 350 C+ 0.23 141
Total Offense C- -1.5 214

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 46% 231 B 8.8% 65
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 176 F 14.5% 365
Three Pointers B 89% 70 B- 0.5% 95
Total C 56% 169 D 6.7% 299

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 352 F 70% 365 -1.6 121
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% 3 C+ 37% 144 +4.2 361
Three Pointers 38% 261 D+ 36% 266 -0.3 168
Shot Selection/Accuracy A+ -2.1 6 D- +4.5 337
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 252
Second Chance C- 31.6% 231 C- 1.06 230 C- 0.33 240
Turnovers C+ 17.3% 146
Freethrows D- 0.36 323 D+ 74% 261 D- 0.26 328
Total Defense C- -1.0 200

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 57% 339 D+ 7.9% 309
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 130 A- 9.0% 26
Three Pointers C 83% 159 D+ 0.5% 254
Total C 56% 186 C 5.4% 185

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.1 254 17.7 252
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 277 0.16 152
Improvement +1.7 #106 +0.2 #171

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 237 203 169
Results Rating Rank 286 221 180
Conference Record 7 - 13 9 - 11 10 - 10
Conference Finish 10 7 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3% 4% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.2 15.8
.500 or above 4% 8% 1%
.500 or above in Conference 20% 40% 6%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 4% 0% 6%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round3% 3% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Louisiana Tech (Away) - 41.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 84 - 13
Quad 49 - 512 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 11 143 Arkansas St. L 85 - 86 49% +7  83% 0 - 1 C- -3 D+ -3 C C- C C -0 B- D C
 Sat, Nov 15 180 @Texas Arlington L 49 - 67 34% -7  29% 0 - 2 F+ -16 F -21 F F F B +4 F+ B+ B-
 Sat, Nov 22 145 UT Rio Grande Valley W 74 - 67 49% -2  27% 1 - 2 C+ +5 B +5 C+ D+ A+ C +0 A F A
 Mon, Nov 24 219 LIU Brooklyn L 61 - 75 65% +1  59% 1 - 3 F -20 F+ -9 F A- B F -13 F D C
 Sat, Dec 6 76 @Tulsa L 74 - 98 12% -14  2% 1 - 4 D- -13 C+ +3 A D+ F F -18 F B- F
 Fri, Dec 12 84 @Xavier L 57 - 75 13% -7  17% 1 - 5 D -8 F+ -8 D- D+ D- C- -2 D+ C+ D
 Tue, Dec 16 335 Oral Roberts W 63 - 62 87% +2  74% 2 - 5 D- -13 F -12 D F C- C- -2 C+ C- C-
 Tue, Dec 23 272 Lindenwood W 70 - 65 74% +5  80% 3 - 5 C- -4 D- -6 F+ B+ A B- +2 B+ A- F
 Mon, Dec 29 265 @Delaware W 61 - 43 52% +12  98% 4 - 5 1 - 0 A- +15 D- -6 C- F D A+ +24 A+ D+ A+
 Fri, Jan 2 243 UTEP W 79 - 55 69% +16  99% 5 - 5 2 - 0 A- +17 A+ +18 B+ A+ C+ B +4 C+ D+ B
 Sun, Jan 4 163 New Mexico St. W 89 - 82 53% +8  97% 6 - 5 3 - 0 C+ +4 B+ +9 B+ A+ F+ D -5 F+ C- B
 Wed, Jan 7 165 @Kennesaw St. L 80 - 90 31% -8  6% 6 - 6 3 - 1 D+ -7 C +0 C- B D+ D- -7 F D A+
 Sat, Jan 10 184 Florida International W 79 - 71 58% +6  89% 7 - 6 4 - 1 C+ +3 C +1 C A+ D B- +3 A- D+ D+
 Wed, Jan 14 147 @Western Kentucky L 72 - 87 28% -6  23% 7 - 7 4 - 2 D- -11 B- +4 D A+ C F -16 F F D
 Sat, Jan 17 167 @Middle Tennessee L 87 - 90 2OT 31% -0  40% 7 - 8 4 - 3 C -0 B +6 C+ B C+ D -6 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 22 163 @New Mexico St. W 84 - 75 31% +5  64% 8 - 8 5 - 3 B+ +12 A+ +15 A+ D- D C- -3 A- F+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 243 @UTEP W 62 - 57 46% -2  25% 9 - 8 6 - 3 C+ +4 D- -7 D- C+ F A+ +11 C+ A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 28 114 Sam Houston St. L 71 - 80 40% -4  7% 9 - 9 6 - 4 D -9 D+ -4 C+ A C- D -5 D B- B+
 Sat, Jan 31 196 Jacksonville St. W 74 - 67 60% +7  92% 10 - 9 7 - 4 C+ +2 C- -1 C+ A C- B- +3 B F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 107 @Liberty L 76 - 79 19% -7  3% 10 - 10 7 - 5 C+ +4 B- +4 C B+ B+ C +0 C D+ B+
 Thu, Feb 12 215 Louisiana Tech L 78 - 79 2OT 64% +1  54% 10 - 11 7 - 6 D+ -7 F -11 F A- D- B +4 F+ A+ A
 Sat, Feb 14 265 Delaware L 67 - 76 73% -5  12% 10 - 12 7 - 7 F -18 D -6 F A B+ F -13 F A+ F
 Wed, Feb 18 165 Kennesaw St. L 87 - 91 54% -5  4% 10 - 13 7 - 8 D+ -7 B +6 A- C- A- F -13 F D F+
 Sat, Feb 21 184 @Florida International L 67 - 70 35% -3  5% 10 - 14 7 - 9 C -2 D+ -4 C- D- C- B- +2 C B F+
 Thu, Feb 26 215 @Louisiana Tech L 64 - 66 42%
 Sat, Feb 28 114 @Sam Houston St. L 71 - 80 21%
 Thu, Mar 5 147 Western Kentucky W 73 - 72 50%
 Sat, Mar 7 167 Middle Tennessee W 71 - 70 54%
Totals 12 - 16 9 - 11 -2 C- -1 F C D C- -1 C- F+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- B+ D- C- C 31% 41% 43% D C- C+ B- B- C- B F+ C+ C- F C+ D+ D- 30% 32% 38% A+ D+ C- C- C- C+ D- D+ D-
1.07 66% 31% 32% 0 -1 0.99 32% 1.1 .35 18% .35 66% .23 1.10 70% 37% 36% +5 -2 1.07 32% 1.1 .33 17% .36 74% .26
Nov
11		 Arkansas St. D+ A+ C D- C+ 31% 31% 38% D- C D- A C- C A+ C+ A+ C F F A+ D+ 19% 43% 38% A+ B- C+ F D C F D- F
1.07 75% 38% 30% +3 -2 1.04 21% 1.3 .27 15% .55 73% .40 1.08 70% 48% 25% +1 -4 0.96 36% 1.2 .44 20% .46 79% .36
Nov
15		 Texas Arlington F D F F F 57% 18% 25% A+ F C+ F F F A+ D- B+ B C- C- F F 44% 31% 25% A F+ D- A+ B+ B- B- A+ A+
0.72 52% 13% 9% -17 +2 0.70 30% 0.3 .08 25% .47 67% .31 0.98 57% 40% 42% +3 -1 1.06 40% 0.6 .25 22% .32 35% .11
Nov
22		 UT Rio Grande Valley B A+ D F C+ 21% 19% 60% D+ C+ D+ C- D+ A+ A+ B- A+ C F A+ A+ A 37% 30% 33% A A F F F A F F F
1.17 100% 33% 28% +2 -1 1.04 29% 0.8 .23 9% .45 73% .33 1.06 81% 23% 14% -6 -1 0.88 41% 1.5 .63 22% .39 84% .33
Nov
24		 LIU Brooklyn F+ D+ D F F 39% 20% 41% D+ F C+ A+ A- B A+ F B F F F F F 31% 38% 31% A+ F D- C- D C F B D
0.97 53% 33% 17% -14 0 0.75 35% 1.3 .46 16% .51 52% .27 1.20 92% 60% 42% +22 -3 1.41 39% 1.0 .39 21% .36 61% .22
Dec
6		 Tulsa C+ B F A+ A+ 31% 18% 51% C- A D C+ D+ F A F C+ F C A+ F F 40% 2% 58% D F F A+ B- F F C F
1.10 64% 25% 48% +10 0 1.22 22% 1.1 .25 21% .36 58% .21 1.46 58% 0% 50% +13 +2 1.33 47% 0.8 .36 10% .50 80% .40
Dec
12		 Xavier F+ B- F F F+ 52% 24% 24% B D- B- F D+ D- C+ A+ B+ C- B- A+ F D+ 30% 21% 49% D+ D+ F+ A+ C+ D B A+ A
0.90 63% 9% 27% -7 +1 0.89 29% 0.6 .18 21% .30 80% .24 1.18 56% 27% 46% +6 -1 1.13 33% 0.8 .26 9% .21 58% .12
Dec
16		 Oral Roberts F A+ B- F C 18% 31% 51% F D D- F F C- A- C+ A- C- F A+ F D 16% 40% 44% A+ C+ A+ F C- C- F F F
0.99 88% 43% 26% +1 -3 0.98 26% 0.9 .23 16% .39 71% .28 0.98 71% 17% 40% -2 -4 0.89 15% 1.8 .27 17% .44 87% .38
Dec
23		 Lindenwood D- A+ F F F+ 36% 20% 44% D F+ C A B+ A B+ F D B- F D A+ B 29% 27% 44% A B+ C- A+ A- F F A+ F
1.02 78% 10% 23% -6 0 0.90 33% 1.3 .43 13% .38 52% .20 0.94 71% 38% 14% -9 -1 0.81 31% 0.8 .24 13% .52 58% .30
Dec
29		 Delaware D- C- B D+ D+ 36% 16% 49% B+ C- D F F D A+ F+ A- A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ 32% 18% 50% C A+ C+ F D+ A+ F A F+
1.01 56% 43% 32% -1 0 1.00 25% 0.5 .13 17% .38 74% .28 0.71 25% 43% 26% -15 0 0.71 18% 1.2 .21 25% .35 69% .24
Jan
2		 UTEP A+ A+ B- B+ A 23% 36% 41% F B+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ C A+ B A+ F B C- 18% 49% 33% A+ C+ F A+ D+ B F B F
1.36 78% 43% 38% +8 -3 1.13 48% 1.7 .80 17% .54 73% .40 0.95 43% 47% 31% 0 -5 0.92 39% 0.8 .29 19% .43 65% .28
Jan
4		 New Mexico St. B+ A+ F A+ A 22% 39% 39% F B+ A- A+ A+ F+ A+ D+ A+ D F A- F F 25% 45% 29% A+ F+ F B+ C- B F F F
1.25 80% 17% 50% +6 -4 1.07 39% 1.4 .56 18% .67 74% .50 1.15 85% 30% 47% +9 -4 1.12 39% 0.8 .33 17% .39 83% .32
Jan
7		 Kennesaw St. C D+ C- D+ D+ 46% 15% 39% B- C- A+ D- B D+ A+ F C- D- F B- F F 38% 6% 56% D F C- D- D A+ F F F
1.07 52% 38% 33% -3 +1 0.98 42% 0.8 .36 17% .50 58% .29 1.21 72% 33% 41% +11 +2 1.27 36% 1.1 .39 24% .57 78% .44
Jan
10		 Florida International C A- A+ D C+ 14% 20% 66% F C C+ A+ A+ D A+ F A+ B- F B A+ B- 30% 42% 28% A+ A- B- F D+ D+ C A+ B
1.11 67% 56% 31% +2 -2 1.02 36% 1.5 .55 22% .56 61% .34 0.99 75% 32% 20% -3 -3 0.89 30% 1.3 .38 15% .31 58% .18
Jan
14		 Western Kentucky B- A- A F D- 24% 12% 63% B- D B+ A+ A+ C D+ B+ C F B- F F F 38% 29% 33% A- F D- F F D F F F
1.09 67% 50% 26% -4 0 0.94 34% 1.3 .43 18% .37 75% .28 1.32 50% 50% 44% +5 -1 1.10 38% 1.5 .55 12% .50 83% .41
Jan
17		 Middle Tennessee B D+ F A+ C 49% 18% 33% B C+ A D+ B C+ A F C D B- D F F 36% 14% 50% F+ F D F F A+ F F F
1.14 54% 10% 47% 0 +1 1.04 36% 1.0 .36 14% .40 62% .25 1.18 56% 43% 52% +13 +1 1.30 33% 1.6 .52 24% .40 78% .31
Jan
22		 New Mexico St. A+ A+ A+ A- A+ 32% 27% 41% D+ A+ A+ F D- D A+ B+ A+ C- F B+ A B+ 19% 41% 41% A+ A- B F F+ F D- D+ F+
1.30 79% 58% 39% +15 -1 1.30 43% 0.6 .27 17% .50 81% .41 1.16 70% 32% 27% -4 -4 0.85 29% 1.4 .39 8% .34 75% .25
Jan
24		 UTEP D- A+ F F D- 30% 28% 43% D D- F A+ C+ F A+ C+ A+ A+ D+ A+ F C- 22% 41% 37% A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ D+ C- D- D+
0.96 75% 27% 24% -5 -1 0.90 21% 1.8 .38 23% .46 74% .34 0.88 64% 20% 44% 0 -4 0.94 9% 0.0 .00 15% .28 73% .20
Jan
28		 Sam Houston St. D+ A+ F A B 27% 43% 31% F C+ D+ A+ A C- C F D D F C+ C+ F+ 43% 33% 24% A D C+ B B- B+ F+ D+ F+
1.03 77% 29% 40% +4 -4 1.02 26% 1.7 .44 17% .32 61% .19 1.16 77% 35% 33% +7 -1 1.14 34% 0.9 .31 20% .35 74% .26
Jan
31		 Jacksonville St. C- A+ D D+ B 21% 32% 47% F C+ B+ A A C- B F D- B- F F+ A+ C- 24% 50% 26% A+ B F B- F A+ F F F
1.08 90% 33% 32% +4 -3 1.04 35% 1.3 .44 18% .37 57% .21 0.98 70% 43% 18% -1 -5 0.90 50% 0.9 .47 26% .54 78% .42
Feb
7		 Liberty B- C F A+ C 38% 29% 33% D C B- A B+ B+ A+ F A C F F B+ C- 48% 11% 41% B- C C F D+ B+ F B F
1.13 56% 29% 44% +1 -1 1.02 34% 1.4 .49 15% .45 54% .24 1.17 73% 60% 32% +8 +2 1.22 19% 1.2 .22 16% .50 64% .32
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
12		 Louisiana Tech F B+ F F F 22% 36% 42% F F A- B- A- D- A- D+ B B F C C- F 25% 49% 25% A+ F+ C+ A+ A+ A C D+ C-
0.91 62% 24% 20% -13 -3 0.69 41% 1.2 .47 21% .38 69% .26 0.92 87% 38% 33% +7 -5 1.07 33% 0.3 .10 23% .27 67% .18
Feb
14		 Delaware D F+ F D+ F 16% 35% 49% F F C- A+ A B+ B F C+ F F A- F F 30% 34% 36% A+ F A A+ A+ F D- F F
1.07 50% 17% 32% -10 -4 0.75 28% 1.5 .44 11% .32 72% .23 1.21 93% 31% 47% +15 -2 1.28 13% 0.0 .00 13% .31 94% .29
Feb
18		 Kennesaw St. B A+ B- B+ A+ 26% 26% 49% F A- D+ C+ C- A- A+ F A+ F F B F F 15% 34% 51% A+ F B+ F D F+ F C+ F
1.20 75% 42% 39% +9 -2 1.17 27% 1.0 .27 12% .62 67% .41 1.26 86% 31% 50% +14 -3 1.23 29% 1.3 .38 12% .54 68% .36
Feb
21		 Florida International D+ F A A+ C- 38% 17% 45% C- C- C F D- C- A D- B+ B- D- C A- C- 40% 32% 28% A C A+ F B F+ F C+ F
1.00 33% 50% 43% -2 0 1.00 35% 0.8 .27 21% .39 67% .26 1.04 65% 38% 29% 0 -1 1.00 19% 1.5 .29 13% .41 67% .27



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 1.9 1.9 3.8 3rd
4th 0.6 6.9 0.9 8.4 4th
5th 5.0 6.3 0.1 11.4 5th
6th 0.1 12.5 1.9 0.0 14.5 6th
7th 3.0 12.8 0.2 15.9 7th
8th 0.8 16.4 4.1 21.2 8th
9th 3.4 11.0 0.1 14.5 9th
10th 5.2 2.1 7.3 10th
11th 2.4 0.1 2.5 11th
12th 0.2 0.2 12th
Total 12.0 32.7 35.1 17.2 3.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 3.0% 8.9% 8.9% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.8
10-10 17.2% 5.3% 5.3% 15.0 0.1 0.7 0.1 16.3
9-11 35.1% 2.5% 2.5% 15.8 0.2 0.7 34.2
8-12 32.7% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.6 32.1
7-13 12.0% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 11.8
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 15.5 97.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 14.2 8.6 59.3 32.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%
Lose Out 7.1%