Missouri St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#171
Expected Predictive Rating+0.3#164
Pace64.9#286
Improvement-0.1#185

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#210
First Shot-2.5#247
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#108
Layup/Dunks-4.5#328
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#158
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#169
Freethrows+1.5#91
Improvement+1.8#62

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#145
First Shot+1.0#136
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#211
Layups/Dunks-3.3#304
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#302
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#13
Freethrows+0.3#163
Improvement-1.9#317
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 3.1% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.3 13.8
.500 or above 42.1% 49.5% 25.4%
.500 or above in Conference 39.8% 47.3% 23.2%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.5% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 6.2% 2.7% 14.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round2.6% 3.0% 1.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Evansville (Away) - 69.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 36 - 77 - 14
Quad 48 - 215 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 68   @ Butler L 65-72 14%     0 - 1 +3.9 -1.1 +4.8
  Nov 16, 2024 239   Tulsa W 111-106 3OT 74%     1 - 1 -2.4 -1.5 -2.5
  Nov 19, 2024 164   Texas Arlington W 78-68 60%     2 - 1 +6.7 +1.0 +5.6
  Nov 24, 2024 123   High Point W 71-61 39%     3 - 1 +12.3 -0.6 +13.5
  Nov 25, 2024 167   Boston College L 74-76 OT 49%     3 - 2 -2.4 -1.6 -0.8
  Nov 26, 2024 120   South Dakota St. L 55-75 37%     3 - 3 -17.3 -13.0 -5.6
  Dec 01, 2024 284   @ Oral Roberts W 72-67 62%     4 - 3 +1.3 +3.2 -1.4
  Dec 07, 2024 150   Indiana St. L 77-80 58%     4 - 4 0 - 1 -5.7 +1.3 -7.1
  Dec 14, 2024 74   @ Washington St. L 78-91 15%     4 - 5 -2.4 +11.3 -13.8
  Dec 22, 2024 146   UC Santa Barbara W 68-56 58%     5 - 5 +9.5 +8.8 +3.4
  Dec 29, 2024 315   @ Evansville W 71-66 69%    
  Jan 01, 2025 224   Valparaiso W 75-69 71%    
  Jan 04, 2025 78   @ Bradley L 64-75 15%    
  Jan 07, 2025 192   Illinois-Chicago W 73-69 65%    
  Jan 11, 2025 198   @ Southern Illinois L 68-70 43%    
  Jan 15, 2025 198   Southern Illinois W 71-67 65%    
  Jan 18, 2025 141   @ Illinois St. L 66-71 34%    
  Jan 21, 2025 99   @ Northern Iowa L 64-72 22%    
  Jan 25, 2025 80   Drake L 60-65 33%    
  Jan 29, 2025 150   @ Indiana St. L 74-78 36%    
  Feb 01, 2025 133   Murray St. W 67-66 53%    
  Feb 05, 2025 99   Northern Iowa L 67-69 41%    
  Feb 08, 2025 130   @ Belmont L 73-78 32%    
  Feb 12, 2025 315   Evansville W 74-63 85%    
  Feb 16, 2025 192   @ Illinois-Chicago L 70-72 43%    
  Feb 19, 2025 224   @ Valparaiso L 71-72 50%    
  Feb 22, 2025 141   Illinois St. W 69-68 55%    
  Feb 26, 2025 130   Belmont W 76-75 52%    
  Mar 02, 2025 80   @ Drake L 57-68 17%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.5 3.5 1.3 0.1 8.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.1 5.6 2.4 0.3 11.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.9 3.4 0.4 0.0 12.5 7th
8th 0.2 2.2 6.1 3.9 0.6 0.0 12.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.4 4.0 0.9 0.0 12.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.5 3.3 0.8 0.0 11.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.2 2.1 0.5 0.0 8.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.2 6.0 9.0 11.7 13.8 14.3 13.0 10.4 7.5 4.7 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 83.9% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 63.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 33.7% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 10.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 24.2% 24.2% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.4% 18.6% 18.6% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
15-5 1.2% 13.9% 13.9% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0
14-6 2.6% 11.2% 11.2% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.3
13-7 4.7% 8.2% 8.2% 12.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.3
12-8 7.5% 5.6% 5.6% 13.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.1
11-9 10.4% 4.0% 4.0% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.0
10-10 13.0% 2.9% 2.9% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.6
9-11 14.3% 1.5% 1.5% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 14.1
8-12 13.8% 1.1% 1.1% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.7
7-13 11.7% 0.7% 0.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 11.6
6-14 9.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.9
5-15 6.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.9
4-16 3.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.2
3-17 1.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.6
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 97.4 0.0%