Missouri St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.5 #182
Expected Predictive Rating -0.9 #185
Pace 63.3 #321
Improvement +4.4 #26

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #191 C C+ C- C D+
Defense #192 C- D+ C+ D A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #334 1.36 #14 -0.8 #207
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #108 0.63 #338 -0.1 #180
Three Pointers 44% #116 0.95 #273 +0.2 #172
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #193 -0.7 #193
Freethrows 0.34 #69 67% #336 0.23 #148
Second Chance 33.1% #111 1.06 #123 0.35 #93
Turnovers 17.5% #231
Total Offense -0.8 #191

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #348 1.35 #356 +2.2 #101
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #6 0.75 #169 -4.0 #361
Three Pointers 39% #251 1.05 #234 +0.4 #161
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #227 -1.4 #226
Freethrows 0.34 #307 74% #260 0.25 #314
Second Chance 32.7% #270 1.09 #281 0.36 #289
Turnovers 17.4% #135
Total Defense -0.7 #192

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.8% #302 -4.0% #8
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.3% #167 7.0% #311
Possession Length 18.3 #290 17.6 #249
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #233 0.17 #176
Improvement +3.1 #45 +1.2 #109

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.1% 7.9% 4.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.1 14.6
.500 or above 61.6% 83.0% 57.5%
.500 or above in Conference 88.2% 97.4% 86.4%
Conference Champion 0.5% 2.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round5.1% 7.9% 4.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Liberty (Away) - 16.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 74 - 12
Quad 411 - 315 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 11 168 Arkansas St. L 85 - 86 58% +7  0 - 1 -5 -1 C C C- -4 C D C+
 Sat, Nov 15 163 @Texas Arlington L 49 - 67 34% -7  0 - 2 -15 -18 F F F +2 F+ A- C+
 Sat, Nov 22 181 UT Rio Grande Valley W 74 - 67 61% -2  1 - 2 +2 +8 C D+ A+ -5 A F A
 Mon, Nov 24 195 LIU Brooklyn L 61 - 75 64% +1  1 - 3 -19 -6 F B+ B- -14 F D+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 69 @Tulsa L 74 - 98 12% -14  1 - 4 -13 +5 A+ D+ F -19 F B F+
 Fri, Dec 12 83 @Xavier L 57 - 75 15% -7  1 - 5 -8 -5 D- D D- -5 D+ C D
 Tue, Dec 16 335 Oral Roberts W 63 - 62 88% +2  2 - 5 -13 -10 D+ F C- -3 C+ C- C-
 Tue, Dec 23 240 Lindenwood W 70 - 65 72% +5  3 - 5 -2 -3 D- B+ A +1 B A F
 Mon, Dec 29 286 @Delaware W 61 - 43 60% +12  4 - 5 1 - 0 +14 -3 C- F D +20 A+ D+ A+
 Fri, Jan 2 257 UTEP W 79 - 55 75% +16  5 - 5 2 - 0 +16 +20 B A+ B- +0 C+ C- B
 Sun, Jan 4 167 New Mexico St. W 89 - 82 58% +8  6 - 5 3 - 0 +3 +12 B A+ D -8 F+ C- B-
 Wed, Jan 7 142 @Kennesaw St. L 80 - 90 29% -8  6 - 6 3 - 1 -6 +4 C B- D+ -9 F D- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 188 Florida International W 79 - 71 63% +6  7 - 6 4 - 1 +3 +3 C A+ D+ +0 A- D+ D+
 Wed, Jan 14 156 @Western Kentucky L 72 - 87 33% -6  7 - 7 4 - 2 -12 +7 D A+ C -20 F F D
 Sat, Jan 17 154 @Middle Tennessee L 87 - 90 2OT 33% -0  7 - 8 4 - 3 -0 +10 B- B+ C+ -10 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 22 167 @New Mexico St. W 84 - 75 35% +5  8 - 8 5 - 3 +11 +18 A+ D D+ -6 A- F+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 257 @UTEP W 62 - 57 54% -2  9 - 8 6 - 3 +3 -5 F+ C+ F +8 C A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 28 108 Sam Houston St. L 71 - 80 42% -4  9 - 9 6 - 4 -8 -1 C+ A- C -8 D B- B+
 Sat, Jan 31 191 Jacksonville St. W 74 - 67 64% +7  10 - 9 7 - 4 +2 +2 C+ A C +0 B F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 89 @Liberty L 65 - 76 16%
 Thu, Feb 12 215 Louisiana Tech W 67 - 62 66%
 Sat, Feb 14 286 Delaware W 70 - 61 80%
 Wed, Feb 18 142 Kennesaw St. W 76 - 75 52%
 Sat, Feb 21 188 @Florida International L 74 - 77 41%
 Thu, Feb 26 215 @Louisiana Tech L 64 - 65 45%
 Sat, Feb 28 108 @Sam Houston St. L 70 - 78 23%
 Thu, Mar 5 156 Western Kentucky W 73 - 71 56%
 Sat, Mar 7 154 Middle Tennessee W 68 - 67 55%
Totals 14 - 14 11 - 9 -2 -1 C C+ C- -1 C- D+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 1st
2nd 0.2 3.3 7.6 5.4 1.3 0.1 17.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.2 12.8 6.7 1.0 24.9 3rd
4th 1.9 10.4 6.5 0.6 19.4 4th
5th 0.3 6.2 7.1 0.7 14.2 5th
6th 1.9 6.5 1.7 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.2 3.8 2.9 0.1 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 2.7 0.3 4.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 0.2 1.2 9th
10th 0.2 0.2 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.4 2.4 9.0 18.1 23.7 23.3 15.0 6.6 1.4 0.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 48.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1
15-5 10.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1
14-6 3.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
13-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.2% 21.2% 21.2% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 1.4% 12.2% 12.2% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.3
14-6 6.6% 10.5% 10.5% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 5.9
13-7 15.0% 7.7% 7.7% 14.1 0.2 0.7 0.3 13.8
12-8 23.3% 6.3% 6.3% 14.6 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.0 21.8
11-9 23.7% 4.4% 4.4% 14.9 0.2 0.8 0.1 22.7
10-10 18.1% 2.3% 2.3% 15.2 0.3 0.1 17.6
9-11 9.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 8.9
8-12 2.4% 2.4
7-13 0.4% 0.4
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 14.4 94.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%