Montana St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.0 #153
Expected Predictive Rating -0.8 #176
Pace 65.2 #289
Improvement -1.0 #237

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #179 C C B- F D
Defense #143 B D+ C- C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #351 1.13 #213 -5.5 #339
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #142 0.94 #16 +2.6 #60
Three Pointers 48% #45 0.99 #214 +3.1 #88
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #175 +0.3 #175
Freethrows 13.3 #337 70% #270 9.3 #340
Second Chance 29.7% #221 1.07 #150 0.32 #179
Turnovers 15.6% #121
Total Offense -0.4 #179

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #70 1.11 #114 -1.4 #233
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #112 0.78 #220 -1.1 #260
Three Pointers 35% #329 0.81 #11 +6.7 #6
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #57 +4.2 #57
Freethrows 17.7 #200 76% #320 13.5 #120
Second Chance 31.1% #203 1.17 #311 0.36 #281
Turnovers 15.6% #247
Total Defense +0.4 #143

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.7% #289 0.2% #179
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.2% #147 -8.4% #49
Possession Length 18.8 #330 17.3 #186
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #313 0.14 #77
Improvement +0.2 #171 -1.1 #254

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.7% 21.6% 16.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.1 14.5
.500 or above 68.7% 81.1% 58.0%
.500 or above in Conference 93.1% 97.4% 89.3%
Conference Champion 34.2% 45.7% 24.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four0.7% 0.5% 0.9%
First Round18.5% 21.4% 15.9%
Second Round0.8% 1.0% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho (Away) - 46.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 35 - 55 - 9
Quad 411 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 77 @Colorado L 78 - 84 16%  -1  0 - 1 +5 +9 A+ F C -5 C+ C C-
 Sun, Nov 9 264 Denver L 73 - 75 80%  +2  0 - 2 -11 -4 D- C+ C+ -8 F F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 79 @Stanford L 68 - 77 16%  -4  0 - 3 +2 -3 B- D+ D +6 A+ C+ B-
 Sat, Nov 15 63 @Boise St. L 58 - 62 14%  -2  0 - 4 +8 -1 C+ F B +8 A+ A+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 262 @Long Beach St. W 78 - 72 61%  +3  1 - 4 +3 +4 D+ C+ A+ -1 C C+ C
 Sat, Nov 29 35 @Utah St. L 81 - 84 OT 7%  -3  1 - 5 +14 +8 B C- B- +6 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 135 St. Thomas W 82 - 74 56%  +1  2 - 5 +7 +10 C+ C- A+ -3 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 298 @Oral Roberts L 68 - 72 68%  +6  2 - 6 -9 -0 B- F F -9 B D C-
 Sat, Dec 13 182 @Oregon St. L 57 - 67 45%  -4  2 - 7 -9 -10 F A- D +1 A+ F D+
 Tue, Dec 16 253 @Cal Poly W 83 - 80 59%  +3  3 - 7 +1 +7 D- A+ A+ -7 A+ F F
 Thu, Jan 1 161 Northern Colorado W 89 - 75 63%  +6  4 - 7 1 - 0 +11 +11 A- A+ B -0 A F B
 Sat, Jan 3 302 Northern Arizona W 77 - 68 85%  +7  5 - 7 2 - 0 -2 +8 B+ B- A -9 D- C- F
 Thu, Jan 8 255 @Eastern Washington W 68 - 64 60%  -0  6 - 7 3 - 0 +2 -3 D- D+ F +5 A+ C F
 Sat, Jan 10 195 @Idaho L 70 - 71 47% 
 Sat, Jan 17 178 Montana W 76 - 72 66% 
 Mon, Jan 19 161 @Northern Colorado L 72 - 75 40% 
 Thu, Jan 22 187 Idaho St. W 73 - 68 68% 
 Sat, Jan 24 212 Weber St. W 77 - 71 71% 
 Thu, Jan 29 296 @Sacramento St. W 78 - 73 67% 
 Sat, Jan 31 154 @Portland St. L 68 - 71 39% 
 Thu, Feb 5 195 Idaho W 73 - 68 69% 
 Sat, Feb 7 255 Eastern Washington W 80 - 71 78% 
 Sat, Feb 14 178 @Montana L 73 - 75 44% 
 Thu, Feb 19 212 @Weber St. L 73 - 74 50% 
 Sat, Feb 21 187 @Idaho St. L 70 - 71 47% 
 Thu, Feb 26 154 Portland St. W 71 - 68 61% 
 Sat, Feb 28 296 Sacramento St. W 81 - 70 83% 
 Mon, Mar 2 302 @Northern Arizona W 72 - 67 68% 
Totals 15 - 13 12 - 6 +0 +0 C C B- +0 B D+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 2.7 7.8 10.0 7.9 3.8 1.3 0.3 34.2 1st
2nd 0.4 3.4 8.6 7.0 2.7 0.5 0.1 22.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.5 7.1 4.9 1.1 0.1 15.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 5.2 3.6 0.6 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.3 3.0 0.4 0.0 7.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.3 0.5 0.0 5.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.0 7.4 11.5 14.8 16.8 15.9 12.7 8.4 3.9 1.3 0.3 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3 0.0
16-2 98.4% 3.8    3.7 0.1
15-3 94.2% 7.9    6.9 1.0 0.0
14-4 78.2% 10.0    6.8 2.9 0.2
13-5 49.1% 7.8    3.2 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 16.3% 2.7    0.6 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
11-7 2.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 34.2% 34.2 22.8 8.8 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 50.8% 50.8% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.3% 38.8% 38.8% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.8
16-2 3.9% 35.8% 35.8% 13.4 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.0 2.5
15-3 8.4% 32.3% 32.3% 13.7 0.1 1.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 5.7
14-4 12.7% 26.9% 26.9% 14.0 0.0 0.7 1.9 0.7 0.0 9.3
13-5 15.9% 22.5% 22.5% 14.2 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.1 0.0 12.4
12-6 16.8% 18.1% 18.1% 14.6 0.1 1.1 1.7 0.2 13.8
11-7 14.8% 13.0% 13.0% 15.0 0.3 1.5 0.2 12.9
10-8 11.5% 10.7% 10.7% 15.5 0.6 0.7 10.3
9-9 7.4% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5 6.8
8-10 4.0% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.2 3.8
7-11 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 1.9
6-12 0.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.7
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.7% 18.7% 0.0% 14.3 81.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.0 16.7 63.3 20.0