Montana St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.5 #166
Expected Predictive Rating -0.9 #186
Pace 65.2 #273
Improvement -1.4 #250

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #168 C C C D D+
Defense #174 C+ C C- C+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #353 1.07 #283 -6.3 #351
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #120 0.92 #25 +2.9 #54
Three Pointers 47% #60 1.07 #99 +4.3 #49
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #146 +0.8 #144
Freethrows 0.25 #332 74% #124 0.18 #316
Second Chance 29.8% #210 1.02 #188 0.30 #197
Turnovers 16.3% #149
Total Offense -0.2 #168

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #26 1.10 #101 -2.3 #259
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #169 0.83 #292 -0.7 #247
Three Pointers 35% #343 0.96 #97 +4.3 #30
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #139 +1.2 #136
Freethrows 0.27 #92 75% #331 0.21 #138
Second Chance 30.6% #177 1.05 #225 0.32 #204
Turnovers 15.7% #243
Total Defense -0.3 #174

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.9% #303 0.9% #250
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.6% #113 -3.2% #115
Possession Length 18.7 #319 17.0 #138
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #256 0.17 #164
Improvement +0.6 #145 -2.0 #290

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.2% 18.6% 14.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.6
.500 or above 73.8% 83.3% 56.3%
.500 or above in Conference 98.9% 99.8% 97.3%
Conference Champion 21.8% 27.8% 10.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.1% 0.8%
First Round17.0% 18.5% 14.2%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho (Home) - 65.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 37 - 57 - 10
Quad 49 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 72 @Colorado L 78 - 84 14% -1  0 - 1 +5 +10 A D- C -5 C+ C C
 Sun, Nov 9 288 Denver L 73 - 75 82% +2  0 - 2 -12 -4 D- B C+ -9 F F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 86 @Stanford L 68 - 77 17% -4  0 - 3 +0 -4 C+ C- D +5 A C C+
 Sat, Nov 15 62 @Boise St. L 58 - 62 13% -2  0 - 4 +8 -3 C F B +10 A+ A+ D
 Fri, Nov 21 255 @Long Beach St. W 78 - 72 57% +3  1 - 4 +4 +5 C- C+ A- -1 C C+ C-
 Sat, Nov 29 38 @Utah St. L 81 - 84 OT 7% -3  1 - 5 +14 +8 B- C- C+ +6 B+ A+ D
 Wed, Dec 3 133 St. Thomas W 82 - 74 53% +1  2 - 5 +7 +10 C+ C- A+ -3 D- A A
 Sat, Dec 6 335 @Oral Roberts L 68 - 72 77% +6  2 - 6 -12 -2 C+ F+ F -10 B- D- C
 Sat, Dec 13 184 @Oregon St. L 57 - 67 43% -4  2 - 7 -9 -10 F B D +0 A+ F C-
 Tue, Dec 16 263 @Cal Poly W 83 - 80 59% +3  3 - 7 +0 +5 F+ A- A -5 A+ F F
 Thu, Jan 1 190 Northern Colorado W 89 - 75 67% +6  4 - 7 1 - 0 +9 +10 B A+ B -1 A- F B-
 Sat, Jan 3 313 Northern Arizona W 77 - 68 86% +7  5 - 7 2 - 0 -3 +5 B- C B+ -6 C- C- F+
 Thu, Jan 8 245 @Eastern Washington W 68 - 64 55% -0  6 - 7 3 - 0 +2 -2 C- D+ F +5 A+ B+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 185 @Idaho L 89 - 92 43% +9  6 - 8 3 - 1 -2 +18 A+ C D -20 F B F
 Sat, Jan 17 158 Montana W 76 - 67 60% +0  7 - 8 4 - 1 +6 +1 C D+ C+ +5 B- A+ C+
 Mon, Jan 19 190 @Northern Colorado W 73 - 68 45% +4  8 - 8 5 - 1 +6 +4 B F B +2 A F C+
 Thu, Jan 22 227 Idaho St. W 74 - 62 72% +5  9 - 8 6 - 1 +5 +5 C B A+ +2 A- F D
 Sat, Jan 24 221 Weber St. W 91 - 88 71% +2  10 - 8 7 - 1 -3 +13 A+ C+ C- -16 F B F
 Thu, Jan 29 274 @Sacramento St. L 80 - 83 61% -3  10 - 9 7 - 2 -6 +3 C- C- D+ -9 F A+ C
 Sat, Jan 31 149 @Portland St. L 54 - 63 34% -3  10 - 10 7 - 3 -5 -5 F B D -2 F A- B
 Thu, Feb 5 185 Idaho W 74 - 70 65%
 Sat, Feb 7 245 Eastern Washington W 78 - 71 75%
 Sat, Feb 14 158 @Montana L 71 - 74 37%
 Thu, Feb 19 221 @Weber St. L 75 - 76 49%
 Sat, Feb 21 227 @Idaho St. W 72 - 71 51%
 Thu, Feb 26 149 Portland St. W 69 - 67 57%
 Sat, Feb 28 274 Sacramento St. W 81 - 72 80%
 Mon, Mar 2 313 @Northern Arizona W 74 - 68 70%
Totals 15 - 13 12 - 6 +0 +0 C C C +0 C+ C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 3.1 8.5 7.7 2.3 21.8 1st
2nd 0.4 5.5 14.7 11.2 2.6 0.1 34.5 2nd
3rd 0.3 4.8 13.4 8.6 1.1 0.0 28.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 5.9 2.7 0.2 10.7 4th
5th 0.3 2.0 1.2 0.1 3.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.0 1.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.2 0.9 4.7 12.4 21.8 26.6 20.8 10.4 2.4 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 95.2% 2.3    2.0 0.2
14-4 74.7% 7.7    4.9 2.7 0.1
13-5 40.9% 8.5    2.9 4.3 1.2 0.0
12-6 11.6% 3.1    0.3 1.3 1.2 0.3
11-7 1.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.8% 21.8 10.1 8.6 2.7 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 2.4% 30.0% 30.0% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 1.7
14-4 10.4% 24.8% 24.8% 13.6 0.0 1.0 1.4 0.1 7.8
13-5 20.8% 21.6% 21.6% 14.0 0.1 0.9 2.6 0.8 0.0 16.3
12-6 26.6% 17.3% 17.3% 14.4 0.2 2.3 2.0 0.1 22.0
11-7 21.8% 14.0% 14.0% 14.8 0.6 2.3 0.1 18.8
10-8 12.4% 10.6% 10.6% 15.3 0.9 0.4 11.0
9-9 4.7% 9.2% 9.2% 15.9 0.1 0.4 4.2
8-10 0.9% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.0 0.8
7-11 0.2% 0.2
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.2% 17.2% 0.0% 14.3 82.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 12.8 0.7 27.3 62.9 9.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%
Lose Out 0.1%