Montana St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#189
Expected Predictive Rating-4.1#232
Pace66.6#225
Improvement-2.4#289

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#188
First Shot+3.2#89
After Offensive Rebound-3.8#348
Layup/Dunks-2.0#258
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#95
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#23
Freethrows-2.7#324
Improvement-1.7#289

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#198
First Shot-0.2#186
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#242
Layups/Dunks-2.4#276
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#99
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#41
Freethrows-2.3#329
Improvement-0.7#223
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.1% 19.6% 14.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.6
.500 or above 33.0% 45.8% 18.4%
.500 or above in Conference 84.3% 93.0% 74.4%
Conference Champion 1.4% 2.3% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four4.4% 3.4% 5.5%
First Round15.4% 18.3% 12.1%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Arizona (Away) - 53.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 82 - 12
Quad 413 - 415 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 17   @ Wisconsin L 67-79 4%     0 - 1 +7.0 +5.8 +0.4
  Nov 09, 2024 134   @ Wichita St. L 69-89 30%     0 - 2 -16.0 -1.2 -15.0
  Nov 17, 2024 331   @ Denver L 78-79 74%     0 - 3 -9.1 -6.1 -3.0
  Nov 19, 2024 56   @ Northwestern L 69-72 11%     0 - 4 +9.3 +9.0 +0.1
  Nov 24, 2024 248   Southern Miss W 79-59 73%     1 - 4 +12.4 +1.6 +10.0
  Nov 26, 2024 242   Abilene Christian W 85-59 72%     2 - 4 +18.7 +19.6 +1.3
  Nov 30, 2024 127   Cal St. Northridge L 69-72 OT 46%     2 - 5 -3.4 -7.1 +3.9
  Dec 04, 2024 212   @ Nebraska Omaha W 76-65 46%     3 - 5 +10.8 +7.6 +4.1
  Dec 07, 2024 235   UMKC W 74-62 70%     4 - 5 +5.2 +8.8 -2.1
  Dec 15, 2024 54   @ USC L 63-89 10%     4 - 6 -13.6 -9.1 -2.5
  Dec 18, 2024 163   @ UC Riverside L 80-83 35%     4 - 7 -0.3 +12.4 -12.9
  Dec 22, 2024 68   @ TCU L 48-82 14%     4 - 8 -23.6 -16.3 -7.8
  Jan 02, 2025 249   @ Idaho L 64-69 55%     4 - 9 0 - 1 -7.7 -13.7 +5.9
  Jan 04, 2025 252   @ Eastern Washington L 63-68 56%     4 - 10 0 - 2 -7.8 -9.0 +1.1
  Jan 09, 2025 154   Northern Colorado L 82-83 52%     4 - 11 0 - 3 -2.8 +9.3 -12.2
  Jan 11, 2025 250   Northern Arizona W 58-53 73%     5 - 11 1 - 3 -2.7 -20.2 +17.3
  Jan 16, 2025 234   @ Idaho St. L 67-70 51%     5 - 12 1 - 4 -4.7 +4.2 -9.5
  Jan 18, 2025 286   @ Weber St. W 80-71 61%     6 - 12 2 - 4 +4.7 +6.8 -1.8
  Jan 20, 2025 252   Eastern Washington W 74-64 73%     7 - 12 3 - 4 +2.2 +7.2 -3.7
  Jan 25, 2025 207   @ Montana L 70-77 44%     7 - 13 3 - 5 -6.8 +2.7 -10.3
  Jan 30, 2025 337   Sacramento St. W 70-58 88%     8 - 13 4 - 5 -2.0 -4.0 +2.6
  Feb 01, 2025 215   Portland St. W 74-73 66%     9 - 13 5 - 5 -4.5 +3.6 -8.1
  Feb 06, 2025 250   @ Northern Arizona W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 08, 2025 154   @ Northern Colorado L 74-78 32%    
  Feb 13, 2025 286   Weber St. W 75-67 78%    
  Feb 15, 2025 234   Idaho St. W 72-67 71%    
  Feb 22, 2025 207   Montana W 75-72 65%    
  Feb 27, 2025 215   @ Portland St. L 71-72 45%    
  Mar 01, 2025 337   @ Sacramento St. W 70-62 75%    
  Mar 03, 2025 249   Idaho W 76-70 75%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 0.8 1.4 1st
2nd 0.9 4.7 6.3 1.4 13.3 2nd
3rd 1.3 12.0 14.7 4.1 0.2 32.3 3rd
4th 0.4 8.1 12.5 2.6 0.0 23.6 4th
5th 0.1 3.4 9.1 2.3 0.0 14.9 5th
6th 0.7 5.3 2.4 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 1.9 0.1 3.9 7th
8th 0.5 1.0 0.1 1.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.1 0.9 3.6 11.2 21.1 27.7 22.1 11.0 2.4 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 33.6% 0.8    0.3 0.4 0.1
12-6 4.9% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 2.4% 35.3% 35.3% 13.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.6
12-6 11.0% 24.9% 24.9% 14.8 0.0 0.7 1.8 0.2 8.3
11-7 22.1% 21.0% 21.0% 15.2 0.2 3.6 0.9 17.4
10-8 27.7% 17.1% 17.1% 15.7 1.6 3.2 23.0
9-9 21.1% 13.2% 13.2% 16.0 0.0 2.8 18.3
8-10 11.2% 9.7% 9.7% 16.0 1.1 10.1
7-11 3.6% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.2 3.4
6-12 0.9% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.0 0.8
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.1% 17.1% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.4 1.3 7.0 8.3 82.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 13.5 4.7 47.1 41.2 7.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%