New Haven
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.5 #338
Expected Predictive Rating -9.5 #314
Pace 62.0 #344
Improvement -1.8 #279

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #357 D- F F F D
Defense #258 D+ C- C C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #295 1.22 #110 -1.3 #236
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #96 0.66 #290 +0.4 #159
Three Pointers 41% #185 0.83 #342 -3.8 #302
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #312 -4.7 #310
Freethrows 11.7 #359 70% #258 8.2 #364
Second Chance 24.2% #331 0.96 #275 0.23 #336
Turnovers 20.1% #346
Total Offense -8.8 #357

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #158 1.21 #246 -1.7 #240
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #305 0.81 #263 +1.2 #108
Three Pointers 44% #94 1.04 #228 -2.4 #279
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #270 -2.9 #270
Freethrows 15.5 #89 75% #268 11.6 #241
Second Chance 28.7% #108 1.20 #329 0.34 #242
Turnovers 16.4% #193
Total Defense -2.7 #258

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.6% #288 1.3% #290
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.8% #297 4.2% #257
Possession Length 20.4 #363 16.6 #79
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #320 0.18 #211
Improvement -0.6 #225 -1.2 #259

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 6.5% 8.8% 2.2%
.500 or above in Conference 58.5% 67.9% 40.5%
Conference Champion 1.4% 1.9% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 11.4% 7.1% 19.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairleigh Dickinson (Home) - 65.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 30 - 50 - 8
Quad 410 - 1010 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 5 @Connecticut L 55 - 79 0%  -12  0 - 1 +1 -2 A+ F B +1 B+ C- B-
 Fri, Nov 7 139 Columbia L 53 - 71 18%  -16  0 - 2 -20 -17 F D- F -4 F A+ A
 Sat, Nov 8 105 Penn St. L 43 - 87 12%  -18  0 - 3 -43 -25 F F F -23 C- F F
 Mon, Nov 10 286 @Umass Lowell W 73 - 67 23%  -1  1 - 3 +2 -1 C D F +3 A+ F D
 Sat, Nov 15 352 Delaware St. W 65 - 52 67%  +7  2 - 3 -3 -7 C- F F +4 B C F
 Tue, Nov 18 53 @Seton Hall L 45 - 68 2%  -14  2 - 4 -10 -11 D- D- C+ -2 F A+ C+
 Sat, Dec 6 151 @Boston College L 63 - 67 9%  +3  2 - 5 -1 +3 B- C- D+ -4 F A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 10 351 @NJIT L 64 - 70 44%  -4  2 - 6 -16 -7 F C A -9 F A+ F
 Mon, Dec 22 203 @Fordham L 47 - 65 13%  -5  2 - 7 -17 -19 D F F -0 D- D- A+
 Mon, Dec 29 7 @Vanderbilt L 53 - 96 0%  -24  2 - 8 -20 -8 D+ F C -12 F D+ C
 Fri, Jan 2 340 @Stonehill W 70 - 55 39%  +5  3 - 8 1 - 0 +6 +1 B D D+ +7 A+ D- D-
 Sun, Jan 4 269 @Central Connecticut St. L 61 - 72 22%  -10  3 - 9 1 - 1 -14 -2 F A+ F -14 F D- C-
 Thu, Jan 8 291 @Le Moyne L 47 - 73 24%  -16  3 - 10 1 - 2 -30 -23 F F F -11 F C F
 Sat, Jan 10 349 Fairleigh Dickinson W 70 - 66 66% 
 Sat, Jan 17 316 Wagner W 66 - 65 53% 
 Mon, Jan 19 353 @Chicago St. L 67 - 68 45% 
 Fri, Jan 23 307 Mercyhurst W 62 - 61 51% 
 Sun, Jan 25 361 St. Francis (PA) W 71 - 64 75% 
 Thu, Jan 29 307 @Mercyhurst L 59 - 65 29% 
 Sat, Jan 31 361 @St. Francis (PA) W 68 - 67 54% 
 Thu, Feb 5 209 @LIU Brooklyn L 62 - 74 13% 
 Sat, Feb 7 353 Chicago St. W 70 - 65 66% 
 Thu, Feb 12 269 Central Connecticut St. L 65 - 67 42% 
 Sat, Feb 14 209 LIU Brooklyn L 65 - 71 29% 
 Thu, Feb 19 340 Stonehill W 64 - 61 61% 
 Sat, Feb 21 349 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 67 - 69 43% 
 Thu, Feb 26 316 @Wagner L 63 - 68 32% 
 Sat, Feb 28 291 Le Moyne L 69 - 70 45% 
Totals 10 - 18 8 - 10 -12 -9 D- F F -3 D+ C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.1 4.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 10.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 5.4 5.9 1.6 0.2 0.0 14.0 4th
5th 0.7 5.9 6.7 1.7 0.1 15.1 5th
6th 0.4 4.7 7.4 2.0 0.1 14.6 6th
7th 0.1 2.9 7.2 2.4 0.1 12.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.9 5.7 2.9 0.2 10.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.2 2.7 0.3 0.0 8.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.5 1.4 0.2 5.9 10th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.5 4.1 7.7 11.8 15.8 16.9 15.2 12.2 7.7 4.0 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 88.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-2 61.2% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
13-3 30.7% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-4 8.0% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-5 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0
15-1 0.1% 0.1
14-2 0.5% 0.5
13-3 1.9% 1.9
12-4 4.0% 4.0
11-5 7.7% 7.7
10-6 12.2% 12.2
9-7 15.2% 15.2
8-8 16.9% 16.9
7-9 15.8% 15.8
6-10 11.8% 11.8
5-11 7.7% 7.7
4-12 4.1% 4.1
3-13 1.5% 1.5
2-14 0.4% 0.4
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%