New Orleans
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.3 #218
Expected Predictive Rating -1.9 #198
Pace 72.2 #90
Improvement +0.5 #164

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #147 C- B- D B C-
Defense #292 C+ D+ D D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #150 1.08 #268 -0.9 #209
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #90 0.78 #142 +1.8 #87
Three Pointers 36% #291 1.04 #141 -2.2 #260
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #214 -1.3 #215
Freethrows 0.34 #82 76% #77 0.25 #61
Second Chance 35.6% #46 1.04 #150 0.37 #67
Turnovers 18.9% #307
Total Offense +0.6 #147

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #151 1.05 #53 +1.4 #127
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #252 0.89 #344 -0.3 #207
Three Pointers 42% #142 1.00 #146 -0.1 #189
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #141 +1.0 #142
Freethrows 0.34 #294 73% #227 0.24 #290
Second Chance 35.3% #329 1.00 #128 0.35 #279
Turnovers 14.1% #324
Total Defense -3.9 #292

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.9% #250 0.8% #245
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.6% #201 -2.9% #121
Possession Length 17.2 #170 16.2 #29
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #212 0.18 #215
Improvement +0.2 #163 +0.3 #176

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 2.3% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.6
.500 or above 10.0% 14.6% 3.2%
.500 or above in Conference 67.3% 79.5% 49.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.5%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.5%
First Round1.7% 2.1% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Texas A&M (Away) - 59.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 20 - 41 - 8
Quad 33 - 45 - 12
Quad 49 - 614 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 51 @TCU W 78 - 74 7% +12  1 - 0 +17 +8 B A+ F+ +9 A+ D- D
 Mon, Nov 10 49 @LSU L 58 - 93 6% -17  1 - 1 -21 -12 F C B+ -8 C+ B F
 Fri, Nov 14 171 @Tulane W 85 - 63 30% +11  2 - 1 +24 +18 A+ A D- +7 A+ A- F
 Tue, Nov 18 283 @Pepperdine L 79 - 90 53% -6  2 - 2 -15 +2 C B- F -17 D- C+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 146 @Fresno St. L 76 - 85 25% -4  2 - 3 -5 +1 C- B- D- -5 B- F C
 Mon, Nov 24 73 @Mississippi St. L 78 - 81 OT 10% +4  2 - 4 +8 +4 C B- F +4 A- F B
 Wed, Nov 26 17 @Texas Tech L 50 - 82 2% -12  2 - 5 -11 -15 F C F +4 A+ F B
 Wed, Dec 3 96 @Memphis L 70 - 86 14% -16  2 - 6 -8 +5 C D B -12 F A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 297 Houston Christian L 76 - 85 77% -4  2 - 7 0 - 1 -20 +0 D+ D A- -21 C- F F
 Mon, Dec 8 248 Incarnate Word W 84 - 83 68% +8  3 - 7 1 - 1 -7 +8 A+ D F -15 F+ F C+
 Sat, Dec 13 6 @Houston L 57 - 99 1% -25  3 - 8 -17 -2 D- A+ F -17 F A D-
 Mon, Dec 29 181 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 85 - 69 32% +8  4 - 8 2 - 1 +17 +14 C A+ A- +3 D+ A- A+
 Wed, Dec 31 196 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 69 - 83 35% -6  4 - 9 2 - 2 -13 +1 D+ C D- -15 B F F+
 Sat, Jan 3 270 @Northwestern St. L 68 - 74 50% +5  4 - 10 2 - 3 -9 -3 F D+ C -6 A+ F D
 Mon, Jan 5 311 East Texas A&M W 83 - 73 79% +8  5 - 10 3 - 3 -2 +6 D+ F A+ -8 C A- F+
 Sat, Jan 10 249 Nicholls St. L 77 - 90 68% -7  5 - 11 3 - 4 -21 +10 C+ A+ D -33 F F F
 Mon, Jan 12 271 @SE Louisiana W 79 - 76 50% +1  6 - 11 4 - 4 -0 +8 D- A+ D- -9 A- F F
 Sat, Jan 17 105 Stephen F. Austin L 79 - 84 33% -1  6 - 12 4 - 5 -4 +10 A- A- D+ -14 F+ A F
 Mon, Jan 19 197 Lamar W 89 - 76 58% +4  7 - 12 5 - 5 +8 +12 A+ C C- -5 D+ B+ C-
 Sat, Jan 24 85 @McNeese St. L 63 - 82 12% -9  7 - 13 5 - 6 -9 -6 C D+ F -4 B+ C- C+
 Tue, Jan 27 249 @Nicholls St. W 80 - 62 46% +9  8 - 13 6 - 6 +16 +3 F+ A+ D +12 A C+ B
 Sat, Jan 31 270 Northwestern St. W 75 - 64 72% +4  9 - 13 7 - 6 +2 -1 F+ A D +3 C+ A- C-
 Mon, Feb 2 311 @East Texas A&M W 78 - 75 60%
 Sat, Feb 7 181 UT Rio Grande Valley W 78 - 77 53%
 Mon, Feb 9 196 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 75 - 73 58%
 Sat, Feb 14 297 @Houston Christian W 77 - 75 57%
 Mon, Feb 16 248 @Incarnate Word L 77 - 78 46%
 Sat, Feb 21 197 @Lamar L 72 - 76 37%
 Mon, Feb 23 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 70 - 81 16%
 Sat, Feb 28 85 McNeese St. L 74 - 81 26%
 Mon, Mar 2 271 SE Louisiana W 77 - 71 72%
Totals 13 - 18 11 - 11 -3 +1 C- B- D -4 C+ D+ D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.0 7.6 4.9 1.4 0.1 17.3 3rd
4th 0.1 3.2 9.6 5.5 0.8 0.0 19.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.9 10.3 7.1 1.0 0.0 20.4 5th
6th 0.9 8.0 9.1 1.5 0.0 19.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 5.2 8.3 1.7 0.1 15.5 7th
8th 1.3 3.3 1.0 0.0 5.5 8th
9th 0.2 1.1 0.6 1.8 9th
10th 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.6 2.9 9.9 19.2 24.6 21.2 14.1 5.7 1.5 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 0.0%
15-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 0.1% 0.1
15-7 1.5% 3.0% 3.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
14-8 5.7% 3.2% 3.2% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.5
13-9 14.1% 3.9% 3.9% 14.7 0.2 0.4 0.0 13.6
12-10 21.2% 2.7% 2.7% 15.5 0.3 0.3 20.7
11-11 24.6% 1.3% 1.3% 15.7 0.1 0.2 24.3
10-12 19.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 19.0
9-13 9.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.9
8-14 2.9% 2.9
7-15 0.6% 0.6
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 15.2 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%