New Orleans
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.5 206
Results Rating -1.3 182
Pace 73.2 64
Improvement +1.1 147

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 164 C- B- D B+ D+
Defense C- 248 C+ D+ D+ D- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 137 D+ 55% 261 -0.5 200
2 Pt. Jumpers 50% 50 C 38% 178 +1.9 82
Three Pointers 34% 312 C 34% 180 -3.3 294
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.5 261 C- -1.3 220
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 230
Second Chance B 34.7% 63 C 1.03 173 B- 0.36 80
Turnovers D 19.2% 323
Freethrows B+ 0.36 26 B- 75% 87 B+ 0.27 22
Total Offense C +0.0 164

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 53% 98 C- 11.8% 231
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 123 C 5.4% 208
Three Pointers D 78% 302 D 1.5% 316
Total C 55% 201 D+ 6.6% 286

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 161 B- 55% 88 -0.8 143
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 274 F+ 44% 346 -0.1 184
Three Pointers 43% 107 B- 32% 108 +0.1 186
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.4 248 C+ -1.2 128
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.01 149
Second Chance D- 35.1% 336 C+ 1.00 127 D+ 0.35 280
Turnovers D+ 15.4% 263
Freethrows D- 0.36 324 C- 73% 238 D- 0.26 323
Total Defense C- -2.4 248

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 57% 333 C+ 12.8% 98
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 38% 338 C- 4.4% 199
Three Pointers F 96% 365 D- -0.1% 355
Total F+ 66% 351 C 5.8% 161

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.2 152 16.2 25
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 217 0.19 256
Improvement -1.7 #267 +2.7 #52

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 231 205 176
Results Rating Rank 237 186 158
Conference Record 11 - 11 12 - 10 13 - 9
Conference Finish 5 4 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3% 4% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.4 15.2
.500 or above 9% 33% 4%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round3% 4% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Stephen F. Austin (Away) - 17.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 21 - 42 - 9
Quad 33 - 45 - 12
Quad 410 - 615 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 50 @TCU W 78 - 74 7% +12  89% 1 - 0 A +18 B +6 B A+ F A+ +11 A+ D D
 Mon, Nov 10 53 @LSU L 58 - 93 8% -17  0% 1 - 1 F -22 F -15 F C A- D -5 C+ B- F
 Fri, Nov 14 162 @Tulane W 85 - 63 31% +11  99% 2 - 1 A+ +25 A+ +17 A+ A+ F+ A +9 A+ A- F
 Tue, Nov 18 281 @Pepperdine L 79 - 90 55% -6  12% 2 - 2 F+ -15 C- -2 D+ B- F F -12 D- B- F
 Fri, Nov 21 132 @Fresno St. L 76 - 85 24% -4  11% 2 - 3 C- -4 D+ -3 D+ C+ F C -0 B F B-
 Mon, Nov 24 74 @Mississippi St. L 78 - 81 OT 11% +4  68% 2 - 4 B- +8 C +0 C- B- F A- +8 A F B+
 Wed, Nov 26 14 @Texas Tech L 50 - 82 2% -12  6% 2 - 5 D -10 F -16 F C+ F B+ +6 A+ F B
 Wed, Dec 3 101 @Memphis L 70 - 86 17% -16  0% 2 - 6 D -8 C +1 C D- B F+ -10 F A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 298 Houston Christian L 76 - 85 79% -4  16% 2 - 7 0 - 1 F -20 C -0 C- D A- F -21 D F F
 Mon, Dec 8 269 Incarnate Word W 84 - 83 74% +8  95% 3 - 7 1 - 1 D -8 C+ +3 A+ D- F F -11 F+ F C+
 Sat, Dec 13 6 @Houston L 57 - 99 1% -25  0% 3 - 8 F+ -17 D -5 D A+ F F -14 F A D-
 Mon, Dec 29 145 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 85 - 69 27% +8  88% 4 - 8 2 - 1 A +20 A +12 C A+ B A- +8 D+ A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 31 205 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 69 - 83 38% -6  17% 4 - 9 2 - 2 D- -13 C- -1 D- C+ D- F -12 B+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 275 @Northwestern St. L 68 - 74 53% +5  81% 4 - 10 2 - 3 D -9 D+ -4 F+ D+ C+ D -6 A F D+
 Mon, Jan 5 308 East Texas A&M W 83 - 73 81% +8  99% 5 - 10 3 - 3 C- -2 C+ +3 D+ F A D -5 C B+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 256 Nicholls St. L 77 - 90 71% -7  4% 5 - 11 3 - 4 F -21 B +6 C+ A D- F -29 F F F
 Mon, Jan 12 287 @SE Louisiana W 79 - 76 58% +1  51% 6 - 11 4 - 4 C -1 B- +5 F+ A+ F+ D- -7 A- F F
 Sat, Jan 17 102 Stephen F. Austin L 79 - 84 34% -1  33% 6 - 12 4 - 5 C- -3 B+ +8 A- A C- F -11 F+ A F
 Mon, Jan 19 216 Lamar W 89 - 76 64% +4  68% 7 - 12 5 - 5 B- +7 B+ +9 A C D+ C- -2 D+ B C-
 Sat, Jan 24 81 @McNeese St. L 63 - 82 12% -9  2% 7 - 13 5 - 6 D -9 D- -7 C D+ F C- -2 B+ D+ C+
 Tue, Jan 27 256 @Nicholls St. W 80 - 62 49% +9  86% 8 - 13 6 - 6 A- +16 C- -1 F+ A F+ A+ +16 A C+ B+
 Sat, Jan 31 275 Northwestern St. W 75 - 64 75% +4  73% 9 - 13 7 - 6 C+ +2 C- -2 D- A+ D+ B +4 C- A- C-
 Mon, Feb 2 308 @East Texas A&M W 94 - 85 62% +11  99% 10 - 13 8 - 6 C+ +3 B+ +8 A+ F C+ D -6 C- D- F+
 Sat, Feb 7 145 UT Rio Grande Valley L 76 - 95 49% -16  1% 10 - 14 8 - 7 F -21 D -5 D A D F -15 D F B-
 Mon, Feb 9 205 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 84 - 78 OT 61% -1  41% 11 - 14 9 - 7 C +1 D- -7 D D F B+ +6 B+ C A-
 Sat, Feb 14 298 @Houston Christian L 60 - 61 60% -1  36% 11 - 15 9 - 8 D+ -6 F -10 F C B- B +4 B- F+ B-
 Mon, Feb 16 269 @Incarnate Word W 78 - 64 53% +8  96% 12 - 15 10 - 8 B +11 B- +5 F B+ A A- +7 C+ A- B-
 Sat, Feb 21 216 @Lamar W 77 - 71 41% +5  66% 13 - 15 11 - 8 B- +6 C+ +2 D+ B- F B +4 C+ B B
 Mon, Feb 23 102 @Stephen F. Austin L 70 - 80 17%
 Sat, Feb 28 81 McNeese St. L 73 - 80 27%
 Mon, Mar 2 287 SE Louisiana W 76 - 68 77%
Totals 14 - 17 12 - 10 -2 C +0 C- C- D+ C- -2 C B- B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D+ C C C- 40% 50% 34% D+ C- B C B- D B+ B- B+ C- B- F+ B- C+ 39% 18% 43% D+ C+ D- C+ D+ D+ D- C- D-
1.09 55% 38% 34% -1 -1 0.98 35% 1.0 .36 19% .36 75% .27 1.12 55% 44% 32% -1 0 1.01 35% 1.0 .35 15% .36 73% .26
Nov
3		 TCU B B- D+ A+ B+ 40% 30% 30% D B A+ B- A+ F A A+ A+ A+ B- A A+ A+ 44% 12% 44% D- A+ B+ F D D D- C- D-
1.04 58% 36% 43% +3 -1 1.06 43% 1.1 .46 25% .34 79% .27 0.98 56% 29% 12% -17 +1 0.72 31% 1.4 .44 13% .40 73% .29
Nov
10		 LSU F F F F F 35% 23% 42% C F D A- C A- D B C- D C A+ F+ B- 46% 11% 44% F+ C+ F A+ B- F F+ C+ D-
0.80 40% 8% 25% -19 -1 0.63 24% 1.1 .26 12% .27 71% .19 1.28 62% 0% 40% +2 +2 1.09 43% 0.9 .38 10% .43 75% .32
Nov
14		 Tulane A+ F A+ A+ A+ 29% 17% 55% C- A+ B- A+ A+ F+ A+ C+ A+ A F+ F A+ A+ 36% 13% 51% D+ A+ C+ A+ A- F F A- F
1.29 42% 57% 57% +17 0 1.36 38% 1.3 .50 21% .54 71% .39 0.96 69% 50% 9% -14 +1 0.76 21% 0.8 .15 8% .56 71% .40
Nov
18		 Pepperdine C- F A A D- 51% 4% 45% A D+ B+ D+ B- F A+ C A+ F C- F C- D- 40% 24% 36% C- D- D+ A B- F F F F
1.07 40% 50% 41% -4 +3 1.00 38% 1.0 .38 23% .42 71% .30 1.22 59% 46% 35% +3 0 1.07 31% 0.7 .22 8% .41 89% .37
Nov
21		 Fresno St. D+ B+ F F D 43% 16% 41% B D+ B- C C+ F A+ F A+ C C- B A+ A- 44% 6% 50% F B B- F F B- F D F
0.98 68% 25% 19% -7 +1 0.90 31% 1.1 .33 23% .52 65% .34 1.10 62% 33% 25% -5 +2 0.96 27% 2.0 .55 19% .45 79% .35
Nov
24		 Mississippi St. C F C- B- C 25% 39% 36% F+ C- A D- B- F C+ A+ A- A- A+ F A A 30% 22% 48% C+ A D+ F F B+ F A+ D
1.01 43% 36% 35% -4 -3 0.88 36% 0.9 .31 19% .27 94% .26 1.05 38% 67% 27% -5 -1 0.91 34% 1.3 .45 18% .46 52% .24
Nov
26		 Texas Tech F C+ F F F 40% 33% 27% B- F F+ A+ C+ F D+ D- D B+ A A C- A+ 38% 25% 37% C A+ F D- F B F A+ F+
0.71 58% 25% 8% -15 -2 0.69 17% 1.5 .26 24% .24 62% .15 1.16 50% 31% 37% -3 -1 0.94 43% 1.2 .50 17% .43 60% .26
Dec
3		 Memphis C B F C- C 37% 21% 42% C+ C B F D- B B- C C+ F+ C- F F F 38% 19% 43% D+ F F+ A+ A+ C- B+ C+ B+
1.00 63% 18% 32% -4 0 0.94 38% 0.5 .20 18% .37 71% .26 1.22 60% 70% 43% +13 0 1.28 43% 0.5 .23 18% .24 71% .17
Dec
6		 Houston Christian C C- F A D+ 44% 12% 44% B- C- D D D A- A- F B- F C+ F+ D+ D 46% 19% 35% D D F F F F F F F
1.15 59% 17% 41% +2 +2 1.10 29% 1.0 .29 14% .35 65% .23 1.29 55% 44% 35% 0 +1 1.04 36% 1.3 .45 8% .49 77% .38
Dec
8		 Incarnate Word C+ B+ A A+ A+ 50% 24% 26% D+ A+ B F D- F A+ A A+ F A+ F F+ F 22% 28% 50% A- F+ D F F C+ F C F
1.22 67% 50% 64% +19 0 1.40 38% 0.8 .29 26% .51 81% .41 1.21 36% 64% 40% +7 -2 1.12 35% 1.3 .47 16% .36 71% .26
Dec
13		 Houston D F B+ D C- 20% 45% 35% F D B A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ F F F F F 25% 40% 36% A- F B A+ A D- F C F
0.84 25% 39% 29% -9 -4 0.75 31% 1.6 .50 31% .49 83% .41 1.46 77% 52% 47% +18 -3 1.30 34% 0.8 .28 9% .50 77% .39
Dec
29		 UT Rio Grande Valley A F+ A+ C+ C- 44% 19% 37% B C B- A+ A+ B C A+ A- A- D- A+ F D 31% 20% 49% B D+ D- A+ A+ A+ F A+ C-
1.22 50% 50% 35% -1 +1 1.02 35% 1.6 .56 14% .33 90% .30 0.99 67% 20% 42% +5 -1 1.10 33% 0.5 .15 23% .32 59% .19
Dec
31		 TX A&M Corpus Christi C- F+ B- D+ D+ 36% 34% 30% F D- B D C+ D- A+ F+ A- F A+ B- C A 60% 23% 17% D- B+ F F F F F F F
1.00 50% 40% 31% -4 -2 0.91 33% 0.9 .31 23% .55 66% .36 1.21 41% 33% 33% -12 +1 0.81 50% 1.1 .56 13% .42 76% .32
Jan
3		 Northwestern St. D+ A+ B+ F D- 23% 33% 44% F F+ B- F D+ C+ F A+ D- D A+ B+ B- A+ 44% 20% 36% F A F F F D+ F F+ F
1.03 75% 47% 22% -1 -3 0.94 37% 0.9 .34 17% .24 85% .20 1.13 35% 33% 31% -13 +1 0.78 34% 1.5 .51 15% .47 81% .38
Jan
5		 East Texas A&M C+ D A+ F+ D+ 40% 15% 44% C- D+ A+ F F A A+ B- A+ D A+ D+ F C+ 41% 9% 50% F+ C C- A+ B+ F+ D- F F
1.17 52% 63% 30% -1 +1 1.02 44% 0.4 .20 13% .48 73% .36 1.03 27% 40% 44% -5 +2 0.96 26% 0.5 .14 14% .30 83% .25
Jan
10		 Nicholls St. B C C- A+ B- 40% 20% 40% C- C+ A+ F A D- A+ A+ A+ F D+ D F F 35% 10% 56% D F F D F F A- F B-
1.23 63% 38% 44% +8 0 1.18 64% 0.8 .52 24% .50 88% .44 1.44 61% 40% 45% +10 +1 1.25 40% 1.1 .46 11% .22 75% .16
Jan
12		 SE Louisiana B- B- F D- F+ 38% 27% 35% D+ F+ A A+ A+ F+ A+ B+ A+ D- B+ B A+ A- 27% 36% 38% A+ A- F D+ F F F C+ F
1.14 64% 20% 31% -4 -1 0.92 40% 1.5 .60 23% .73 79% .58 1.09 50% 31% 24% -10 -3 0.76 38% 1.0 .38 13% .64 67% .43
Jan
17		 Stephen F. Austin B+ C A+ C A+ 30% 37% 33% F A- B A A C- F F F F C- F F F 38% 28% 34% C F+ F+ A+ A F F D F
1.16 56% 60% 33% +7 -3 1.11 34% 1.3 .44 18% .20 55% .11 1.23 58% 50% 41% +7 -1 1.14 39% 0.6 .22 7% .47 70% .33
Jan
19		 Lamar B+ A A+ F A 61% 27% 12% B- A A+ F C D+ A+ B A+ C- A- F D+ D+ 30% 30% 41% D+ D+ F A+ B C- D+ D D
1.24 72% 55% 20% +10 +1 1.24 45% 0.7 .31 18% .69 73% .51 1.06 44% 50% 36% +1 -2 1.00 41% 0.6 .26 15% .26 75% .20
Jan
24		 McNeese St. D- D B- C C- 49% 13% 38% B+ C F+ A- D+ F A+ D+ A+ C- C+ A+ A+ A 63% 8% 29% F B+ F A D+ C+ F F F
0.91 53% 40% 33% -3 +2 1.00 27% 1.3 .33 33% .54 72% .39 1.18 56% 25% 20% -8 +3 0.92 48% 0.8 .38 14% .50 83% .42
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Nicholls St. C- D- F B+ F 50% 23% 27% C F+ B+ B A F+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ C+ C A+ 32% 11% 57% D+ A B D+ C+ B+ B- A+ A-
1.09 54% 27% 38% -3 +1 0.98 42% 1.2 .52 25% .47 81% .38 0.85 29% 33% 33% -10 +1 0.83 21% 1.1 .23 19% .25 53% .14
Jan
31		 Northwestern St. C- F B C+ D- 43% 25% 32% D+ D- B+ A A+ D+ A+ C+ A+ B B+ F A- C- 40% 26% 34% D+ C- C+ A+ A- C- A+ D A+
1.11 47% 45% 36% -2 0 0.98 39% 1.4 .55 19% .49 74% .37 0.95 48% 57% 28% -2 -1 0.96 23% 0.8 .17 16% .16 78% .12
Feb
2		 East Texas A&M B+ B- C- A+ A+ 51% 27% 22% D A+ D+ F F C+ A+ A A+ D B+ F B- C- 39% 16% 45% D+ C- A- F D- F+ F F F
1.20 62% 36% 73% +14 0 1.29 29% 0.1 .03 17% .55 78% .43 1.09 50% 63% 30% -2 +1 1.00 18% 1.7 .29 14% .55 76% .42
Feb
7		 UT Rio Grande Valley D A- D F D+ 40% 31% 29% D D F+ A+ A D A+ B+ A+ F C B- F+ D 35% 13% 52% D+ D F F F B- F F F
1.02 68% 33% 21% -3 -1 0.94 24% 1.6 .39 19% .48 76% .36 1.27 59% 33% 40% +4 +1 1.13 47% 1.3 .61 19% .46 86% .40
Feb
9		 TX A&M Corpus Christi D- D+ C F D 56% 24% 20% C+ D D C D F A+ B- A+ B+ F+ A+ A+ A- 47% 19% 34% D+ B+ C- C+ C A- F D F
0.96 56% 36% 22% -5 +1 0.93 23% 1.0 .23 25% .86 75% .65 0.90 64% 10% 17% -11 +1 0.81 30% 0.9 .28 22% .54 70% .38
Feb
14		 Houston Christian F D- C- F F 54% 29% 17% D+ F B- D C B- B- F D B D+ F A+ C+ 33% 26% 41% B+ B- C+ F F+ B- C D+ C-
0.97 54% 36% 13% -8 0 0.85 36% 1.0 .36 16% .31 56% .17 0.98 60% 50% 21% -4 -1 0.91 27% 1.2 .33 19% .28 71% .20
Feb
16		 Incarnate Word B- F A F F 35% 26% 39% F+ F B- B+ B+ A A+ D+ A+ A- B- C B B 38% 17% 46% D- C+ D A+ A- B- F B- F
1.21 44% 50% 28% -6 -1 0.89 36% 1.3 .46 11% .59 71% .42 0.99 50% 38% 32% -5 0 0.94 35% 0.6 .22 17% .47 68% .32
Feb
21		 Lamar C+ A F C+ C- 37% 26% 37% D+ D+ A+ F+ B- F A+ A A+ B D- B- A- C+ 25% 27% 47% D+ C+ F A+ B B F A+ F
1.10 71% 17% 35% 0 -1 1.00 42% 0.9 .36 23% .50 78% .39 1.01 62% 36% 29% -3 -2 0.92 41% 0.7 .27 19% .42 58% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.6 6.0 3.4 10.0 3rd
4th 2.1 33.3 21.2 0.6 57.3 4th
5th 8.7 19.8 28.5 5th
6th 3.4 0.9 4.2 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 14.2 54.6 27.2 4.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8 4.0% 5.5% 5.5% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.8
13-9 27.2% 3.7% 3.7% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.0 26.2
12-10 54.6% 2.3% 2.3% 15.4 0.0 0.7 0.5 53.3
11-11 14.2% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 14.1
10-12
9-13
8-14
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 15.0 97.4 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 13.7 1.5 40.3 49.3 9.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.0%
Lose Out 6.1%