Norfolk St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.5 #272
Expected Predictive Rating -9.5 #312
Pace 66.5 #253
Improvement -4.3 #353

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #318 D- D+ C- D- F
Defense #202 C- C C- C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #265 0.93 #360 -6.0 #346
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% #10 0.77 #148 +5.2 #10
Three Pointers 31% #343 1.07 #102 -3.9 #305
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #311 -4.7 #309
Freethrows 16.4 #235 61% #362 10.1 #317
Second Chance 30.4% #194 0.89 #329 0.27 #277
Turnovers 17.6% #247
Total Offense -5.6 #318

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #203 1.34 #347 -3.2 #282
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #341 0.72 #130 +2.5 #26
Three Pointers 48% #32 0.93 #81 -1.4 #239
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #246 -2.0 #246
Freethrows 18.9 #263 70% #101 13.3 #136
Second Chance 32.3% #242 0.97 #97 0.31 #167
Turnovers 15.8% #227
Total Defense -0.8 #202

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.8% #350 1.5% #298
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.7% #263 2.6% #230
Possession Length 18.1 #261 17.4 #214
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #229 0.22 #318
Improvement +0.1 #176 -4.4 #358

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.3% 37.7% 28.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 48.6% 59.2% 30.4%
.500 or above in Conference 94.2% 97.3% 88.8%
Conference Champion 43.9% 52.4% 29.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.2% 1.5%
First Four29.0% 30.5% 26.6%
First Round19.9% 22.7% 15.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Delaware St. (Away) - 63.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 40 - 7
Quad 414 - 814 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 127 William & Mary L 78 - 81 30%  +4  0 - 1 -4 -2 A+ F F -2 C+ F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 250 @Old Dominion L 57 - 60 33%  -1  0 - 2 -5 -7 F B- F +1 B- B- D+
 Fri, Nov 14 175 @Towson L 41 - 51 22%  +1  0 - 3 -8 -22 F B A+ +12 A+ A+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 252 Hampton W 62 - 60 56%  +2  1 - 3 -6 -5 D F B -1 F B- B-
 Sun, Nov 23 95 @Wyoming L 67 - 75 9%  -11  1 - 4 +1 +2 D+ C- C -1 A+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 29 2 @Arizona L 61 - 98 1%  -17  1 - 5 -10 -2 B- B C- -5 C+ C D
 Sat, Dec 6 204 @James Madison L 67 - 68 25%  -4  1 - 6 -0 -2 B+ C F +2 B+ D- F
 Wed, Dec 10 32 @Baylor L 67 - 97 3%  -16  1 - 7 -13 -5 F D- C -6 D- B- A-
 Thu, Dec 18 246 Grambling St. L 68 - 80 43%  -14  1 - 8 -17 -10 F D+ B+ -6 F A+ F
 Fri, Dec 19 342 Jackson St. W 82 - 72 69%  +11  2 - 8 -2 +0 B- F F -2 D+ D- B
 Sun, Dec 21 244 @UTEP W 72 - 71 32%  +3  3 - 8 -1 -0 C+ F F -0 F C- A+
 Mon, Dec 22 121 UC Irvine L 70 - 89 20%  -16  3 - 9 -17 +4 B- A+ F -22 F F D
 Sun, Dec 28 310 @Louisiana L 54 - 63 48%  -9  3 - 10 -15 -9 F D- C -8 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 347 @NC Central L 67 - 69 60%  -3  3 - 11 0 - 1 -11 -6 F F C -6 F A+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 352 @Delaware St. W 67 - 63 63% 
 Mon, Jan 12 341 Maryland Eastern Shore W 68 - 60 78% 
 Sat, Jan 17 357 @South Carolina St. W 72 - 67 70% 
 Sat, Jan 24 364 Coppin St. W 78 - 61 94% 
 Mon, Jan 26 362 Morgan St. W 78 - 65 88% 
 Sat, Jan 31 271 @Howard L 66 - 69 39% 
 Sat, Feb 7 347 NC Central W 72 - 63 79% 
 Sat, Feb 14 352 Delaware St. W 70 - 60 81% 
 Mon, Feb 16 341 @Maryland Eastern Shore W 65 - 63 57% 
 Sat, Feb 21 357 South Carolina St. W 75 - 64 85% 
 Sat, Feb 28 364 @Coppin St. W 75 - 64 84% 
 Mon, Mar 2 362 @Morgan St. W 75 - 68 73% 
 Thu, Mar 5 271 Howard W 69 - 66 61% 
Totals 13 - 14 10 - 4 -6 -6 D- D+ C- -1 C- C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.2 3.1 11.6 16.0 10.3 2.8 43.9 1st
2nd 0.1 3.0 11.1 9.7 2.3 0.1 26.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 7.1 5.2 0.7 0.0 14.7 3rd
4th 0.6 4.1 2.9 0.3 7.9 4th
5th 0.2 2.0 1.8 0.2 4.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.1 2.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.7 7.8 13.3 19.7 22.0 18.3 10.4 2.8 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1 100.0% 2.8    2.8 0.0
12-2 99.4% 10.3    9.7 0.7
11-3 87.3% 16.0    11.3 4.5 0.2
10-4 52.7% 11.6    4.4 5.6 1.5 0.1
9-5 15.6% 3.1    0.3 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.0
8-6 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 43.9% 43.9 28.4 12.1 2.9 0.5 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1 2.8% 59.1% 59.1% 14.9 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.1 1.1
12-2 10.4% 51.9% 51.9% 15.9 0.3 5.1 5.0
11-3 18.3% 45.4% 45.4% 16.0 0.1 8.2 10.0
10-4 22.0% 38.3% 38.3% 16.0 0.0 8.4 13.6
9-5 19.7% 28.6% 28.6% 16.0 5.6 14.0
8-6 13.3% 20.9% 20.9% 16.0 2.8 10.5
7-7 7.8% 17.3% 17.3% 16.0 1.4 6.4
6-8 3.7% 14.7% 14.7% 16.0 0.6 3.2
5-9 1.5% 13.2% 13.2% 16.0 0.2 1.3
4-10 0.4% 12.5% 12.5% 16.0 0.1 0.4
3-11 0.1% 15.4% 15.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-12 0.0% 0.0
1-13
0-14 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 34.3% 34.3% 0.0% 15.9 65.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.7% 100.0% 14.9 0.9 19.4 70.9 8.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%