Norfolk St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.7 #307
Expected Predictive Rating -11.1 #332
Pace 69.3 #168
Improvement -6.3 #360

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #325 D C- D C D
Defense #258 D C- C D D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #156 0.97 #354 -3.3 #294
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #35 0.76 #173 +3.3 #39
Three Pointers 32% #342 1.04 #145 -4.4 #324
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #313 -4.5 #312
Freethrows 0.33 #88 66% #347 0.22 #176
Second Chance 29.7% #216 0.96 #270 0.29 #247
Turnovers 19.0% #310
Total Offense -6.1 #325

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #178 1.36 #362 -4.2 #316
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #362 0.76 #201 +3.0 #5
Three Pointers 49% #17 0.98 #122 -3.0 #308
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #305 -4.2 #305
Freethrows 0.36 #330 71% #86 0.26 #319
Second Chance 34.2% #317 1.01 #157 0.35 #266
Turnovers 16.9% #167
Total Defense -2.6 #258

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.0% #307 2.1% #346
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.9% #296 6.0% #298
Possession Length 17.7 #224 17.2 #185
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #94 0.24 #351
Improvement +0.0 #174 -6.3 #364

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.7% 20.1% 15.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 7.5% 9.9% 1.8%
.500 or above in Conference 81.0% 89.4% 60.7%
Conference Champion 9.9% 13.4% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 1.1%
First Four17.6% 18.7% 15.0%
First Round9.2% 10.2% 6.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: NC Central (Home) - 70.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 40 - 8
Quad 412 - 1012 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 150 William & Mary L 78 - 81 27% +4  0 - 1 -5 -3 A- F F -2 B- F A-
 Tue, Nov 11 243 @Old Dominion L 57 - 60 25% -1  0 - 2 -5 -6 F B F +1 B- C+ D+
 Fri, Nov 14 155 @Towson L 41 - 51 14% +1  0 - 3 -7 -21 F B+ A+ +12 A+ A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 21 251 Hampton W 62 - 60 48% +2  1 - 3 -6 -5 D D B -1 F+ B- B-
 Sun, Nov 23 111 @Wyoming L 67 - 75 8% -11  1 - 4 -1 +0 D+ C D+ -2 A+ F A-
 Sat, Nov 29 2 @Arizona L 61 - 98 0% -17  1 - 5 -10 -3 C+ B- C- -4 C+ D+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 205 @James Madison L 67 - 68 20% -4  1 - 6 -1 -2 B+ C F +1 B D F
 Wed, Dec 10 47 @Baylor L 67 - 97 3% -16  1 - 7 -15 -6 F+ D C -7 D C+ B-
 Thu, Dec 18 287 Grambling St. L 68 - 80 44% -14  1 - 8 -19 -10 F C- B -8 F A+ F
 Fri, Dec 19 337 Jackson St. W 82 - 72 60% +11  2 - 8 -1 +0 B F D- -2 D D B+
 Sun, Dec 21 257 @UTEP W 72 - 71 27% +3  3 - 8 -1 +0 C+ F D- -2 D- D- A+
 Mon, Dec 22 118 UC Irvine L 70 - 89 14% -16  3 - 9 -16 +6 B A+ F -22 F F D
 Sun, Dec 28 303 @Louisiana L 54 - 63 37% -9  3 - 10 -14 -9 F D- C+ -7 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 341 @NC Central L 67 - 69 50% -3  3 - 11 0 - 1 -11 -7 F F+ D+ -3 D A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 353 @Delaware St. W 66 - 64 57% -1  4 - 11 1 - 1 -9 -8 C F+ F -1 F F A+
 Mon, Jan 12 338 Maryland Eastern Shore L 70 - 74 71% -0  4 - 12 1 - 2 -18 -0 F A+ B- -18 D D+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 359 @South Carolina St. W 89 - 82 62% -0  5 - 12 2 - 2 -5 +9 C A+ F -14 F C- C
 Sat, Jan 24 364 Coppin St. W 103 - 76 91% +15  6 - 12 3 - 2 +4 +6 A+ F F -6 F D C+
 Mon, Jan 26 354 Morgan St. L 78 - 79 78% +3  6 - 13 3 - 3 -18 -10 F C B+ -8 F B+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 253 @Howard L 60 - 88 27% -15  6 - 14 3 - 4 -30 -11 F F C- -20 F F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 341 NC Central W 75 - 69 71%
 Sat, Feb 14 353 Delaware St. W 72 - 64 77%
 Mon, Feb 16 338 @Maryland Eastern Shore L 66 - 67 49%
 Sat, Feb 21 359 South Carolina St. W 78 - 69 81%
 Sat, Feb 28 364 @Coppin St. W 78 - 69 79%
 Mon, Mar 2 354 @Morgan St. W 77 - 75 58%
 Thu, Mar 5 253 Howard L 71 - 72 49%
Totals 11 - 16 8 - 6 -9 -6 D C- D -3 D C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 4.2 5.6 9.9 1st
2nd 0.0 3.6 11.3 0.9 15.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.7 13.7 4.6 20.0 3rd
4th 0.7 10.2 10.3 0.2 21.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 6.3 11.8 1.4 20.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.8 1.4 10.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.3 2.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
Total 0.1 1.1 4.7 13.2 25.0 29.2 20.3 6.5 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4 86.3% 5.6    2.5 2.5 0.5 0.0
9-5 20.7% 4.2    0.2 1.2 1.9 0.7 0.1
8-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
7-7 0.0%
Total 9.9% 9.9 2.8 3.8 2.4 0.8 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4 6.5% 35.5% 35.5% 15.9 0.1 2.2 4.2
9-5 20.3% 24.7% 24.7% 16.0 5.0 15.3
8-6 29.2% 17.5% 17.5% 16.0 5.1 24.1
7-7 25.0% 15.2% 15.2% 16.0 3.8 21.2
6-8 13.2% 13.9% 13.9% 16.0 1.8 11.3
5-9 4.7% 11.3% 11.3% 16.0 0.5 4.2
4-10 1.1% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 0.1 1.0
3-11 0.1% 0.1
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 18.7% 18.7% 0.0% 16.0 81.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.3% 100.0% 15.9 6.1 93.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.1%