North Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.6 #319
Expected Predictive Rating -8.7 #302
Pace 70.9 #131
Improvement +2.7 #55

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #302 D D C C B
Defense #323 D- F B+ F F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #137 1.06 #292 -1.1 #224
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #292 0.59 #342 -3.4 #331
Three Pointers 45% #111 0.92 #288 -0.1 #180
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #302 -4.5 #306
Freethrows 18.3 #141 69% #277 12.7 #179
Second Chance 27.9% #265 0.95 #291 0.26 #288
Turnovers 16.7% #188
Total Offense -4.7 #302

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #59 1.27 #309 -5.4 #340
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #352 0.77 #207 +2.5 #28
Three Pointers 43% #122 1.06 #249 -2.0 #264
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #325 -4.9 #326
Freethrows 22.1 #343 73% #221 16.2 #19
Second Chance 34.6% #310 1.17 #310 0.40 #335
Turnovers 19.3% #55
Total Defense -4.9 #323

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.6% #79 2.6% #354
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.1% #327 6.9% #301
Possession Length 18.1 #259 16.4 #52
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #316 0.18 #188
Improvement +4.2 #8 -1.5 #271

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.3% 1.6% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.7% 1.4% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 25.2% 38.1% 14.3%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.8% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 17.4% 6.5% 26.4%
First Four1.2% 1.4% 1.1%
First Round0.7% 0.8% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UMKC (Away) - 45.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 61 - 10
Quad 48 - 1010 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 13 @Alabama L 62 - 91 1%  -17  0 - 1 -8 -8 C+ F B +2 C- A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 6 295 UC Riverside L 70 - 74 54%  -5  0 - 2 -15 -9 C F C -6 F C+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 211 Cal St. Northridge L 85 - 93 35%  -4  0 - 3 -14 +2 C C A+ -15 F F A-
 Sat, Nov 15 295 @UC Riverside W 76 - 74 31%  +0  1 - 3 -3 -3 C F C- +1 F D A+
 Wed, Nov 19 37 @Creighton L 60 - 75 2%  -9  1 - 4 +1 -0 C D+ B+ +0 A+ F B+
 Sat, Nov 22 270 Coastal Carolina L 58 - 75 38%  -10  1 - 5 -23 -19 F D D+ -4 F B+ C
 Sun, Nov 23 358 @Western Illinois W 78 - 69 59%  -1  2 - 5 -3 -2 D+ F F -1 F D- A+
 Fri, Nov 28 98 @Hawaii L 55 - 92 6%  -14  2 - 6 -29 -15 F D+ F -10 F C+ A
 Wed, Dec 3 195 @Idaho L 58 - 90 16%  -15  2 - 7 -31 -15 D+ F F -16 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 178 Montana L 75 - 79 31%  +1  2 - 8 -8 +1 D- A C+ -9 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 358 Western Illinois L 66 - 69 OT 79%  -1  2 - 9 -21 -16 F C F -5 A+ F A+
 Thu, Dec 18 152 Winthrop W 90 - 88 26%  -2  3 - 9 -1 +14 D A+ A+ -15 F F C+
 Sun, Dec 21 23 @Nebraska L 55 - 78 1%  -3  3 - 10 -4 -5 C F C+ -0 B A+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 298 Oral Roberts W 72 - 61 54%  +10  4 - 10 1 - 0 +0 -5 D- D D- +5 A C- C-
 Sat, Jan 3 173 South Dakota St. W 90 - 87 OT 30%  +1  5 - 10 2 - 0 -1 +14 B A+ B- -15 F F B-
 Thu, Jan 8 257 @Nebraska Omaha L 79 - 90 25%  -7  5 - 11 2 - 1 -14 +5 D C- A- -19 F D B
 Sat, Jan 10 343 @UMKC L 73 - 74 46% 
 Thu, Jan 15 135 St. Thomas L 73 - 81 22% 
 Sat, Jan 17 290 South Dakota W 82 - 81 52% 
 Thu, Jan 22 298 @Oral Roberts L 72 - 77 32% 
 Sat, Jan 24 264 @Denver L 78 - 85 27% 
 Thu, Jan 29 135 @St. Thomas L 70 - 84 10% 
 Thu, Feb 5 257 Nebraska Omaha L 76 - 77 46% 
 Sat, Feb 7 264 Denver L 81 - 82 48% 
 Wed, Feb 11 290 @South Dakota L 79 - 84 30% 
 Sat, Feb 14 146 North Dakota St. L 70 - 78 24% 
 Thu, Feb 19 343 UMKC W 76 - 71 68% 
 Sat, Feb 21 173 @South Dakota St. L 71 - 83 14% 
 Sat, Feb 28 146 @North Dakota St. L 67 - 81 11% 
Totals 9 - 20 6 - 10 -10 -5 D D C -5 D- F B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 2.8 1.8 0.4 0.0 6.1 3rd
4th 0.2 2.5 6.0 3.8 0.6 0.0 13.0 4th
5th 0.1 2.9 9.2 4.9 0.7 0.0 17.8 5th
6th 0.1 2.3 10.0 6.2 0.8 0.0 19.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.8 8.7 7.1 0.8 0.0 18.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 6.5 5.9 1.0 0.0 14.5 8th
9th 0.8 3.5 3.2 0.8 0.0 8.3 9th
Total 0.9 4.6 11.6 17.8 21.2 18.9 12.8 7.5 3.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-3 88.9% 0.1    0.1 0.0
12-4 54.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
11-5 15.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.0% 0.0
13-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-4 0.3% 7.9% 7.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3
11-5 1.1% 7.9% 7.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.0
10-6 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.1 3.2
9-7 7.5% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.2 7.3
8-8 12.8% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 12.6
7-9 18.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.3 18.6
6-10 21.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.3 20.9
5-11 17.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 17.7
4-12 11.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.5
3-13 4.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.6
2-14 0.9% 0.9
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 16.0 98.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%