North Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.8 294
Results Rating -5.0 246
Pace 68.9 169
Improvement +4.3 37

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 201 D C- B- C+ B
Defense D- 340 D- F+ B D- F+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 81 D 51% 322 -0.7 212
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 274 D 33% 322 -2.9 316
Three Pointers 43% 143 D+ 32% 264 -0.2 186
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.0 62 D -4.5 321
1st FG Attempt D 0.95 299
Second Chance D+ 27.9% 253 C 1.04 154 C- 0.29 222
Turnovers B- 15.2% 85
Freethrows B- 0.33 109 D+ 70% 264 C+ 0.23 142
Total Offense C- -1.2 201

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots F 28% 361 C- 12.1% 254
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 231 C- 5.7% 238
Three Pointers C 83% 211 B 0.4% 56
Total D- 46% 338 C- 6.1% 239

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 60 D 63% 311 +5.0 334
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% 358 C 39% 204 -2.7 9
Three Pointers 43% 102 D 37% 319 +3.4 325
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ +1.3 356 D- +4.1 326
1st FG Attempt D- 1.13 339
Second Chance D- 35.0% 334 D- 1.15 333 F+ 0.40 351
Turnovers B 19.6% 41
Freethrows F+ 0.38 347 C 72% 172 D- 0.27 340
Total Defense D- -6.6 340

Assists Blocks
Close Shots F 61% 356 D 6.6% 337
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 167 C+ 5.7% 113
Three Pointers D 89% 331 C 0.9% 158
Total F+ 67% 355 D 4.0% 309

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.8 232 16.6 56
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 289 0.16 153
Improvement +6.5 #3 -2.2 #294

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 306 292 273
Results Rating Rank 261 254 225
Conference Record 10 - 6 10 - 6 11 - 5
Conference Finish 3 3 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.7 16.0
.500 or above 3% 9% 2%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round1% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: North Dakota St. (Away) - 11.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 32 - 53 - 10
Quad 410 - 614 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 18 @Alabama L 62 - 91 1% -17  0% 0 - 1 D+ -8 F -11 C+ F C+ B +5 D+ A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 6 283 UC Riverside L 70 - 74 58% -5  11% 0 - 2 D- -14 F+ -9 C+ F C+ D+ -4 F B A+
 Sun, Nov 9 159 Cal St. Northridge L 85 - 93 32% -4  25% 0 - 3 D -11 C+ +2 C B- A+ F -12 F F A-
 Sat, Nov 15 283 @UC Riverside W 76 - 74 35% +0  54% 1 - 3 C- -2 D -4 C F C B- +2 F C A+
 Wed, Nov 19 63 @Creighton L 60 - 75 5% -9  9% 1 - 4 C- -3 D- -6 D D B+ C+ +2 A+ F B
 Sat, Nov 22 236 Coastal Carolina L 58 - 75 36% -10  20% 1 - 5 F -21 F -20 F C- C- C -0 F B D
 Sun, Nov 23 362 @Western Illinois W 78 - 69 76% -1  47% 2 - 5 D+ -6 D- -7 C- F F+ C+ +0 F F+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 119 @Hawaii L 55 - 92 11% -14  15% 2 - 6 F -31 F -19 F D+ F F+ -9 F C B+
 Wed, Dec 3 187 @Idaho L 58 - 90 19% -15  12% 2 - 7 F -31 F -16 C- F F F -15 F F A-
 Sat, Dec 6 194 Montana L 75 - 79 39% +1  48% 2 - 8 D -9 C- -1 F+ A+ C+ F+ -8 D- F A
 Sat, Dec 13 362 Western Illinois L 66 - 69 OT 89% -1  38% 2 - 9 F -24 F -21 F C+ F D+ -3 A+ F A
 Thu, Dec 18 135 Winthrop W 90 - 88 27% -2  32% 3 - 9 C +1 A +14 C- A+ A+ F -13 F F C+
 Sun, Dec 21 13 @Nebraska L 55 - 78 1% -3  47% 3 - 10 C -1 D -4 C+ F B+ B- +2 B+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 335 Oral Roberts W 72 - 61 74% +10  98% 4 - 10 1 - 0 C- -3 F+ -8 D- D+ F B +5 A- D C-
 Sat, Jan 3 210 South Dakota St. W 90 - 87 OT 42% +1  60% 5 - 10 2 - 0 C- -3 A +11 B- A+ C+ F -14 F+ F B+
 Thu, Jan 8 239 @Nebraska Omaha L 79 - 90 27% -7  1% 5 - 11 2 - 1 D- -12 C+ +3 D C A F -15 F D B
 Sat, Jan 10 360 @UMKC W 81 - 79 71% -2  28% 6 - 11 3 - 1 D- -12 B+ +8 D+ C- A+ F -20 F C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 15 128 St. Thomas L 80 - 91 24% -5  9% 6 - 12 3 - 2 D- -12 C- -1 C- A D- F -11 F D A+
 Sat, Jan 17 293 South Dakota W 96 - 80 61% +11  94% 7 - 12 4 - 2 B- +5 A+ +15 C A+ A+ F -10 F A- C+
 Thu, Jan 22 335 @Oral Roberts W 79 - 62 53% +8  84% 8 - 12 5 - 2 B +9 B +6 D B- A+ B +4 B+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 228 @Denver W 93 - 86 25% +0  49% 9 - 12 6 - 2 B- +6 B+ +8 B- D+ C+ C- -2 F A- B+
 Thu, Jan 29 128 @St. Thomas W 81 - 80 11% -2  29% 10 - 12 7 - 2 B- +6 B+ +8 B C- A+ C- -2 B- D C
 Thu, Feb 5 239 Nebraska Omaha W 76 - 73 48% -5  7% 11 - 12 8 - 2 C- -4 D+ -3 F D- A+ C -1 A F C+
 Sat, Feb 7 228 Denver L 79 - 98 46% -12  0% 11 - 13 8 - 3 F -26 C- -2 F D A+ F -25 F F D
 Wed, Feb 11 293 @South Dakota W 72 - 71 38% -1  36% 12 - 13 9 - 3 C- -4 D+ -2 F C+ A- C -1 C D C
 Sat, Feb 14 129 North Dakota St. L 66 - 83 26% -4  35% 12 - 14 9 - 4 F -18 D -6 D- D+ C+ F -14 F F A+
 Thu, Feb 19 360 UMKC W 85 - 70 86% +7  84% 13 - 14 10 - 4 C- -5 D -4 F A- F+ C- -2 B- C- C-
 Sat, Feb 21 210 @South Dakota St. L 83 - 91 22% +3  78% 13 - 15 10 - 5 D+ -8 A +12 A+ F A F -21 D- F F+
 Sat, Feb 28 129 @North Dakota St. L 70 - 83 11%
Totals 13 - 16 10 - 6 -8 C- -1 D D B D- -7 D+ D+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D D D+ D 42% 29% 43% B D D+ C C- B- B- D+ C+ D- D C D D- 43% 13% 43% F+ D- D- D- F+ B F+ C D-
1.07 51% 33% 32% -4 +1 0.95 28% 1.0 .29 15% .33 70% .23 1.18 63% 39% 37% +4 +1 1.13 35% 1.2 .40 20% .38 72% .24
Nov
3		 Alabama F C+ C F+ C+ 44% 25% 32% B C+ F F F C+ C F D B F F B+ D+ 44% 6% 50% D- D+ D+ A+ A+ A+ F C- F
0.84 56% 36% 28% -4 0 0.93 17% 0.1 .02 14% .27 53% .14 1.23 78% 67% 31% +8 +2 1.23 37% 0.7 .27 20% .46 78% .36
Nov
6		 UC Riverside F+ C A+ D- C 44% 16% 40% B- C+ D- F F C+ B+ F D- D+ F+ F A- F+ 59% 7% 34% F F A+ F+ B A+ F F F
0.99 59% 63% 30% +2 +1 1.08 24% 0.6 .15 14% .40 50% .20 1.05 67% 67% 29% +4 +3 1.17 17% 1.0 .17 27% .52 81% .43
Nov
9		 Cal St. Northridge C+ A+ F+ F C 34% 17% 48% C+ C D A+ B- A+ B F C- F F A+ F F 47% 20% 33% C+ F F C F A- F B F
1.12 80% 30% 25% 0 0 1.02 23% 1.6 .36 11% .34 65% .22 1.23 71% 20% 47% +9 +1 1.22 42% 1.0 .42 21% .52 61% .32
Nov
15		 UC Riverside D C F B+ C- 49% 10% 41% A- C D- F F C F F F B- D F D+ F 40% 6% 53% F F C C- C A+ F A+ D+
1.02 59% 17% 38% 0 +2 1.07 24% 0.7 .17 15% .22 50% .11 1.00 63% 67% 36% +5 +2 1.17 27% 0.9 .23 28% .39 62% .24
Nov
19		 Creighton D- D F C D- 47% 20% 33% A- D D+ D- D B+ C- B- C- C+ F A+ A+ A+ 27% 9% 64% D+ A+ F F F B F A+ F
0.93 50% 18% 33% -8 +1 0.87 24% 0.9 .21 12% .19 73% .14 1.16 92% 0% 17% -11 +1 0.82 50% 1.3 .64 17% .47 60% .28
Nov
22		 Coastal Carolina F F F F F 23% 33% 44% D F C+ F+ C- C- A+ F A+ C C- F D- F 39% 17% 44% F F A+ F B D C- A+ B
0.78 36% 25% 14% -22 -3 0.52 29% 0.9 .25 13% .53 65% .34 1.01 57% 56% 38% +5 +1 1.13 15% 1.2 .18 13% .28 56% .16
Nov
23		 Western Illinois D- D+ D+ A+ C 42% 27% 31% D- C- F A+ F F+ C+ A+ A- C+ A A F F 37% 17% 46% F F C+ F F+ A+ F A+ C
1.07 59% 36% 44% +4 -1 1.10 12% 2.0 .23 18% .33 85% .28 0.94 41% 25% 48% +1 0 1.04 24% 1.4 .32 23% .37 52% .20
Nov
28		 Hawaii F F F F F 50% 8% 42% A F F A+ D+ F A+ F A F+ F B- A+ F 60% 6% 34% F F D+ B- C B+ F B+ F
0.71 38% 25% 20% -20 +2 0.67 16% 1.3 .22 21% .46 61% .28 1.19 80% 33% 24% +8 +3 1.24 33% 1.0 .33 22% .51 68% .35
Dec
3		 Idaho F B- D- D+ C- 34% 19% 47% B- C- D- F F F B- F D- F F A+ F F 30% 7% 63% D F F F F A- F F F
0.84 63% 33% 32% -1 0 1.00 19% 0.0 .00 24% .38 55% .21 1.30 69% 0% 48% +14 +1 1.33 39% 1.2 .48 20% .43 92% .40
Dec
6		 Montana C- B- D- F F 42% 25% 33% C F+ A A- A+ C+ C+ A B F+ B- C- F D- 40% 11% 49% D- D- F F F A F A+ F+
1.09 64% 31% 18% -7 0 0.87 40% 1.2 .48 14% .31 78% .24 1.15 56% 40% 45% +8 +1 1.20 33% 1.4 .48 25% .46 63% .29
Dec
13		 Western Illinois F F F F 48% 0% 52% A F D+ A- C+ F A+ C- A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 54% 18% 28% F A+ F D- F A F F F
0.91 50% 17% -17 +3 0.74 32% 1.3 .42 23% .45 72% .33 0.95 33% 22% 14% -24 +1 0.56 48% 1.1 .52 22% .44 80% .35
Dec
18		 Winthrop A F A A- D 41% 4% 55% A C- A- A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ F C+ F F F 43% 8% 50% D F A F F C+ F A- F
1.30 38% 50% 39% -3 +2 1.00 38% 1.4 .53 10% .51 72% .37 1.27 53% 67% 45% +8 +2 1.23 26% 1.9 .48 16% .74 67% .50
Dec
21		 Nebraska D F F B C 25% 23% 53% B C+ F F F B+ D- A+ D+ B- F+ A A+ A- 44% 15% 41% C- B+ D A+ A+ F D- F F
0.83 46% 25% 36% -5 -1 0.91 16% 0.0 .00 18% .16 78% .13 1.17 75% 25% 27% +1 +1 1.07 31% 0.5 .17 9% .31 84% .26
Jan
1		 Oral Roberts F+ F F A+ F+ 51% 16% 33% C D- B- F D+ F A+ D+ A+ B A- F A+ A 41% 14% 45% D+ A- B F D C- D A+ C
1.04 41% 29% 43% -6 +1 0.93 36% 0.9 .33 20% .62 68% .42 0.88 45% 57% 18% -13 +1 0.78 23% 1.3 .30 17% .33 63% .21
Jan
3		 South Dakota St. A B+ B- C+ B- 28% 13% 58% C+ B- A+ C- A+ C+ C A+ B+ F C+ A+ F D- 46% 10% 44% F F+ F F+ F B+ F F F
1.29 67% 43% 35% +4 0 1.11 47% 1.1 .50 14% .30 89% .27 1.25 57% 20% 45% +5 +2 1.16 38% 1.2 .47 19% .41 78% .32
Jan
8		 Nebraska Omaha C+ F+ D- C D- 34% 12% 54% C+ D C+ C- C A A+ D A+ F F+ F F F 46% 12% 41% F F F+ C+ D B F F F
1.15 53% 33% 33% -3 +1 0.98 31% 1.0 .31 10% .49 70% .34 1.32 68% 60% 47% +16 +2 1.37 32% 1.0 .32 19% .63 80% .51
Jan
10		 UMKC B+ F B+ A- D+ 43% 20% 37% C- D+ D+ C+ C- A+ A+ F B+ F B F F F 19% 40% 40% A+ F F A+ C+ A+ D F F
1.24 48% 45% 40% 0 0 1.04 33% 1.1 .36 8% .40 58% .23 1.21 50% 59% 65% +26 -4 1.45 39% 0.6 .22 27% .29 93% .27
Jan
15		 St. Thomas C- F+ A+ C D 56% 8% 36% A C- C A+ A D- A+ C+ A+ F D A+ F F 38% 5% 57% D+ F A F D A+ F A+ F
1.10 50% 50% 33% -4 +3 1.00 30% 1.6 .48 21% .52 77% .40 1.25 69% 0% 67% +30 +2 1.67 13% 2.0 .25 21% .59 56% .33
Jan
17		 South Dakota A+ B D C C+ 52% 18% 30% C C B A+ A+ A+ F F F F D A+ F F 44% 10% 46% F+ F B A+ A- C+ D- F F
1.37 66% 36% 33% +3 +1 1.11 38% 1.8 .71 9% .11 57% .06 1.15 62% 20% 45% +8 +2 1.21 23% 0.7 .17 19% .42 83% .35
Jan
22		 Oral Roberts B F D- A+ D- 63% 12% 25% A- D C- A+ B- A+ C- A+ B+ B C A+ A+ A 55% 3% 43% F B+ F F F A+ F B- F
1.20 39% 33% 54% -5 +3 0.98 30% 1.4 .42 9% .30 89% .27 0.94 55% 0% 18% -13 +4 0.83 39% 1.2 .45 27% .57 70% .40
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24		 Denver B+ C F A+ B 38% 17% 44% C- B- C D- D+ C+ A+ C A+ C- B+ F F F 33% 20% 47% F+ F A- B+ A- B+ F A+ F
1.27 60% 22% 48% +7 0 1.17 34% 1.0 .34 12% .50 69% .34 1.18 47% 60% 46% +9 0 1.20 24% 1.0 .24 18% .45 67% .30
Jan
29		 St. Thomas B+ C A+ C B- 45% 11% 44% B B D+ B- C- A+ D+ F D C- C F A- B 55% 10% 35% D- B- F B- D C F D- F
1.18 60% 67% 33% +4 +2 1.13 26% 1.2 .32 12% .25 67% .17 1.17 63% 60% 29% +3 +3 1.12 29% 0.9 .26 15% .39 74% .29
Feb
5		 Nebraska Omaha D+ A F F F 37% 15% 48% C+ F C F D- A+ A+ F A+ C F A+ A A 28% 24% 48% B A F F F C+ F A+ D
1.11 74% 25% 20% -6 +1 0.90 30% 0.7 .21 4% .58 66% .38 1.07 77% 9% 27% -6 -1 0.87 35% 1.3 .45 18% .39 64% .25
Feb
7		 Denver C- C+ F F F 63% 4% 33% A+ F F A D A+ A+ A+ A+ F F F C- F 35% 23% 42% D F F D- F D F D- F
1.18 62% 0% 11% -11 +4 0.89 24% 1.3 .32 4% .44 86% .37 1.46 83% 58% 36% +15 -1 1.31 43% 1.3 .54 12% .39 83% .32
Feb
11		 South Dakota D+ F A+ F F 71% 8% 21% A+ F B- C- C+ A- C- F+ D+ C F B- A+ B- 54% 6% 40% F C D- C- D C B+ D+ B
1.08 43% 75% 27% -10 +4 0.90 36% 1.2 .42 12% .27 69% .19 1.06 74% 33% 10% -6 +3 0.96 32% 1.0 .32 18% .31 76% .24
Feb
14		 North Dakota St. D F A C F 44% 8% 48% A D- D C D+ C+ A+ D A F D- A+ D- D- 49% 2% 49% F F F F F A+ F+ D- F
1.02 48% 50% 35% -3 +2 1.00 25% 0.9 .22 19% .38 70% .27 1.28 67% 0% 38% +6 +3 1.21 44% 1.6 .70 23% .34 76% .26
Feb
19		 UMKC D F F C F 47% 6% 47% A- F D A+ A- F+ A+ A+ A+ C- A A+ B A- 48% 14% 38% F B- B F C- C- C- F D
1.10 39% 0% 35% -11 +2 0.86 33% 1.5 .50 21% .52 81% .43 0.91 44% 25% 29% -11 +2 0.82 24% 1.1 .26 18% .27 76% .21
Feb
21		 South Dakota St. A A+ A A A+ 35% 11% 54% B A+ F F F A F F F F B A+ F F+ 35% 12% 53% D+ D- F F F F+ F F F
1.26 74% 50% 41% +13 +1 1.30 19% 0.8 .16 11% .20 67% .14 1.38 53% 17% 46% +5 +1 1.14 42% 1.3 .55 12% .43 84% .36



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 6.5 5.1 11.6 2nd
3rd 82.2 6.2 88.4 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 88.7 11.3 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 11.3% 2.6% 2.6% 15.7 0.1 0.2 11.1
10-6 88.7% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 1.5 87.2
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 15.9 98.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 15.7 29.5 70.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.7%
Lose Out 58.4%