North Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.9 #282
Expected Predictive Rating -4.7 #238
Pace 70.0 #148
Improvement +6.9 #6

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #206 D+ C- C+ C B-
Defense #323 D- D B+ D- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #132 1.03 #317 -1.4 #237
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #275 0.66 #316 -2.5 #303
Three Pointers 43% #135 0.99 #221 +0.6 #152
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #272 -3.3 #278
Freethrows 0.31 #147 69% #293 0.22 #185
Second Chance 28.2% #250 1.05 #140 0.30 #216
Turnovers 15.5% #111
Total Offense -1.6 #206

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #71 1.23 #283 -4.1 #315
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #348 0.83 #298 +1.9 #49
Three Pointers 43% #108 1.17 #345 -4.3 #336
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #350 -6.5 #349
Freethrows 0.38 #357 71% #103 0.27 #342
Second Chance 34.0% #309 1.10 #293 0.37 #319
Turnovers 19.9% #35
Total Defense -5.4 #323

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #93 2.2% #352
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.5% #307 10.3% #339
Possession Length 17.9 #247 16.4 #45
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #294 0.18 #208
Improvement +8.1 #1 -1.2 #255

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.6% 4.6% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 17.5% 27.4% 6.6%
.500 or above in Conference 98.6% 100.0% 97.1%
Conference Champion 3.0% 4.9% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.8% 1.7% 1.9%
First Round2.7% 3.8% 1.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska Omaha (Home) - 52.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 32 - 53 - 10
Quad 410 - 714 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 20 @Alabama L 62 - 91 1% -17  0 - 1 -9 -7 C+ F C+ +0 D+ A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 6 291 UC Riverside L 70 - 74 64% -5  0 - 2 -15 -8 C F B- -7 F B A+
 Sun, Nov 9 187 Cal St. Northridge L 85 - 93 42% -4  0 - 3 -13 +4 C C+ A -16 F F B+
 Sat, Nov 15 291 @UC Riverside W 76 - 74 41% +0  1 - 3 -3 -3 C- F+ C+ +0 F C A+
 Wed, Nov 19 58 @Creighton L 60 - 75 5% -9  1 - 4 -3 -4 D D B +0 A+ F B+
 Sat, Nov 22 239 Coastal Carolina L 58 - 75 40% -10  1 - 5 -21 -19 F C- C- -2 F B C-
 Sun, Nov 23 362 @Western Illinois W 78 - 69 73% -1  2 - 5 -4 -3 C F D- -2 F D- A+
 Fri, Nov 28 102 @Hawaii L 55 - 92 9% -14  2 - 6 -29 -16 F D F -10 F C B+
 Wed, Dec 3 185 @Idaho L 58 - 90 21% -15  2 - 7 -31 -14 C- F F -16 F F B+
 Sat, Dec 6 158 Montana L 75 - 79 35% +1  2 - 8 -7 +2 D- A+ B- -10 D- F A-
 Sat, Dec 13 362 Western Illinois L 66 - 69 OT 87% -1  2 - 9 -22 -16 F B- F -6 A+ F A-
 Thu, Dec 18 123 Winthrop W 90 - 88 27% -2  3 - 9 +1 +16 C- A+ A+ -15 F F C+
 Sun, Dec 21 13 @Nebraska L 55 - 78 1% -3  3 - 10 -2 -4 C F B- +1 B+ A+ F+
 Thu, Jan 1 335 Oral Roberts W 72 - 61 75% +10  4 - 10 1 - 0 -3 -6 D- D+ F +3 A- D C-
 Sat, Jan 3 177 South Dakota St. W 90 - 87 OT 39% +1  5 - 10 2 - 0 -1 +15 B- A+ B- -16 D- F B-
 Thu, Jan 8 241 @Nebraska Omaha L 79 - 90 30% -7  5 - 11 2 - 1 -13 +7 D+ C A- -20 F D+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 358 @UMKC W 81 - 79 67% -2  6 - 11 3 - 1 -10 +10 D+ C A+ -20 F C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 15 133 St. Thomas L 80 - 91 29% -5  6 - 12 3 - 2 -12 +3 C- A- D -15 F D A
 Sat, Jan 17 285 South Dakota W 96 - 80 62% +11  7 - 12 4 - 2 +6 +16 C A+ A+ -10 F A+ C+
 Thu, Jan 22 335 @Oral Roberts W 79 - 62 55% +8  8 - 12 5 - 2 +9 +8 D+ B- A+ +2 B F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 288 @Denver W 93 - 86 40% +0  9 - 12 6 - 2 +3 +9 C+ D+ C+ -6 F A- B+
 Thu, Jan 29 133 @St. Thomas W 81 - 80 14% -2  10 - 12 7 - 2 +6 +11 B C- A+ -6 C+ D C-
 Thu, Feb 5 241 Nebraska Omaha W 77 - 76 53%
 Sat, Feb 7 288 Denver W 84 - 81 62%
 Wed, Feb 11 285 @South Dakota L 81 - 84 40%
 Sat, Feb 14 139 North Dakota St. L 73 - 78 31%
 Thu, Feb 19 358 UMKC W 81 - 70 84%
 Sat, Feb 21 177 @South Dakota St. L 74 - 83 20%
 Sat, Feb 28 139 @North Dakota St. L 70 - 81 15%
Totals 13 - 16 10 - 6 -7 -2 D+ C- C+ -5 D- D B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 1.4 0.3 3.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 6.4 6.1 1.1 15.3 2nd
3rd 0.5 7.9 20.9 15.7 2.9 0.1 47.9 3rd
4th 0.1 3.9 12.8 6.8 0.5 24.1 4th
5th 0.6 4.5 2.8 0.2 8.1 5th
6th 0.7 0.9 0.0 1.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 1.4 9.8 23.6 29.6 22.7 10.1 2.6 0.3 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 0.3    0.2 0.1
13-3 55.5% 1.4    0.4 0.7 0.3
12-4 10.9% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1
11-5 0.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 3.0% 3.0 0.8 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.3% 8.8% 8.8% 15.0 0.0 0.3
13-3 2.6% 11.3% 11.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.3
12-4 10.1% 7.5% 7.5% 15.6 0.3 0.4 9.4
11-5 22.7% 4.6% 4.6% 15.8 0.2 0.8 21.6
10-6 29.6% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9 28.7
9-7 23.6% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.5 23.1
8-8 9.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 9.7
7-9 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 1.4
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 15.8 96.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 1.0%