Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.9 #302
Expected Predictive Rating -8.7 #301
Pace 65.5 #285
Improvement -3.6 #340

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #288 C- F C F D
Defense #287 D+ C C B D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #177 1.11 #240 -1.1 #222
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #56 0.67 #281 +1.4 #100
Three Pointers 35% #308 1.07 #110 -2.3 #268
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #229 -1.9 #227
Freethrows 13.7 #333 64% #354 8.7 #352
Second Chance 24.4% #325 0.96 #272 0.23 #332
Turnovers 17.2% #214
Total Offense -4.4 #288

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #134 1.16 #173 -1.0 #219
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #301 0.72 #139 +1.8 #65
Three Pointers 43% #117 1.13 #324 -3.8 #320
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #275 -3.0 #276
Freethrows 14.4 #41 74% #228 10.6 #306
Second Chance 31.7% #222 1.00 #141 0.32 #178
Turnovers 16.7% #173
Total Defense -3.5 #287

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.7% #291 1.4% #293
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.2% #215 4.6% #263
Possession Length 18.7 #317 17.2 #180
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #326 0.17 #162
Improvement -1.4 #269 -2.2 #309

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.3% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0.6% 1.2% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 5.9% 11.3% 2.4%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 47.7% 34.4% 56.4%
First Four0.7% 1.0% 0.6%
First Round0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Home) - 39.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 101 - 13
Quad 47 - 88 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 169 Drake L 71 - 77 25%  -0  0 - 1 -7 -2 D F A+ -5 D- A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 2 @Arizona L 49 - 84 0%  -24  0 - 2 -8 -11 D F F +3 B- C A
 Mon, Nov 24 253 Cal Poly W 93 - 87 52%  +0  1 - 2 -2 +5 A- C C -8 F B C
 Wed, Nov 26 218 Southeast Missouri St. W 79 - 72 43%  +7  2 - 2 +1 +4 C- A+ B -4 B C+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 173 South Dakota St. L 62 - 75 36%  -6  2 - 3 -17 -13 F F F -5 B+ D+ D+
 Sat, Dec 6 146 @North Dakota St. L 68 - 69 14%  -1  2 - 4 +3 -4 C D C +7 B- B+ A+
 Tue, Dec 9 88 @Arizona St. L 48 - 73 6%  -12  2 - 5 -15 -18 F F C +1 C C+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 222 @San Diego L 69 - 78 23%  -6  2 - 6 -9 -0 B- D F -9 F F A-
 Thu, Dec 18 329 Southern Utah W 65 - 57 71%  +0  3 - 6 -6 -8 F D B +4 C A- A-
 Sun, Dec 21 165 @Incarnate Word L 66 - 90 17%  -10  3 - 7 -22 -5 A- F F -17 F D- D-
 Thu, Jan 1 178 @Montana L 64 - 78 19%  -4  3 - 8 0 - 1 -12 -4 C- D+ F -9 F B C
 Sat, Jan 3 153 @Montana St. L 68 - 77 15%  -7  3 - 9 0 - 2 -6 +5 A F A- -12 F D D-
 Thu, Jan 8 212 Weber St. L 65 - 78 42%  -5  3 - 10 0 - 3 -19 -5 F C- B -16 D F F
 Sat, Jan 10 187 Idaho St. L 69 - 72 39% 
 Thu, Jan 15 296 @Sacramento St. L 74 - 77 38% 
 Sat, Jan 17 154 @Portland St. L 64 - 75 16% 
 Mon, Jan 19 178 Montana L 73 - 76 37% 
 Sat, Jan 24 161 Northern Colorado L 71 - 76 34% 
 Thu, Jan 29 255 Eastern Washington W 76 - 75 52% 
 Sat, Jan 31 195 Idaho L 70 - 73 40% 
 Thu, Feb 5 187 @Idaho St. L 66 - 75 21% 
 Sat, Feb 7 212 @Weber St. L 70 - 78 23% 
 Thu, Feb 12 154 Portland St. L 67 - 72 33% 
 Sat, Feb 14 296 Sacramento St. W 77 - 74 60% 
 Sat, Feb 21 161 @Northern Colorado L 68 - 79 16% 
 Thu, Feb 26 195 @Idaho L 67 - 76 22% 
 Sat, Feb 28 255 @Eastern Washington L 73 - 78 32% 
 Mon, Mar 2 153 Montana St. L 67 - 72 32% 
Totals 8 - 20 5 - 13 -8 -4 C- F C -3 D+ C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.4 3.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.9 1.0 0.0 5.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.5 4.7 2.4 0.2 10.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 4.4 7.2 3.9 0.4 17.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.1 7.9 9.6 4.6 0.6 0.0 26.4 9th
10th 0.8 3.7 8.2 10.5 8.2 3.2 0.5 0.0 35.0 10th
Total 0.8 3.7 8.7 13.7 17.2 17.4 15.0 10.7 6.9 3.5 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4
13-5 50.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 10.3% 0.0    0.0
11-7 3.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 6.9% 6.9% 15.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.6% 7.6% 7.6% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.6
10-8 1.6% 5.4% 5.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.5
9-9 3.5% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.4
8-10 6.9% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.2 6.8
7-11 10.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 10.6
6-12 15.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 14.9
5-13 17.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 17.4
4-14 17.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 17.1
3-15 13.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.6
2-16 8.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.7
1-17 3.7% 3.7
0-18 0.8% 0.8
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 15.9 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%