Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.0 #313
Expected Predictive Rating -8.9 #308
Pace 63.2 #324
Improvement -3.0 #307

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #229 C D C D C-
Defense #346 D D+ C C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #153 1.12 #234 -0.3 #186
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #91 0.69 #285 +0.8 #132
Three Pointers 36% #288 1.12 #51 -0.8 #211
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #187 -0.3 #186
Freethrows 0.26 #307 68% #325 0.18 #333
Second Chance 24.1% #341 1.01 #196 0.24 #323
Turnovers 16.8% #190
Total Offense -2.2 #229

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #122 1.18 #218 -1.7 #235
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #304 0.77 #216 +1.5 #70
Three Pointers 43% #110 1.19 #355 -4.7 #343
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #327 -4.9 #327
Freethrows 0.28 #102 74% #255 0.20 #125
Second Chance 34.1% #314 1.07 #251 0.36 #302
Turnovers 16.3% #206
Total Defense -6.8 #346

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.9% #251 1.4% #298
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.2% #168 8.2% #322
Possession Length 19.0 #335 17.2 #182
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #309 0.16 #132
Improvement +3.1 #48 -6.1 #363

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 86.7% 69.5% 91.5%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Away) - 21.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 121 - 15
Quad 46 - 78 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 162 Drake L 71 - 77 20% -0  0 - 1 -6 -1 C- F+ A+ -5 D- A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 2 @Arizona L 49 - 84 0% -24  0 - 2 -8 -11 D+ D- F +4 C B- A
 Mon, Nov 24 263 Cal Poly W 93 - 87 49% +0  1 - 2 -3 +4 B C- C -7 F+ B C
 Wed, Nov 26 238 Southeast Missouri St. W 79 - 72 43% +7  2 - 2 -0 +5 C- A+ B- -5 B C- F
 Wed, Dec 3 177 South Dakota St. L 62 - 75 32% -6  2 - 3 -17 -12 F+ D- D- -5 B D C-
 Sat, Dec 6 139 @North Dakota St. L 68 - 69 11% -1  2 - 4 +3 -4 C- D- C +7 B+ C+ A+
 Tue, Dec 9 77 @Arizona St. L 48 - 73 4% -12  2 - 5 -14 -18 F F C +2 C+ B A-
 Sat, Dec 13 202 @San Diego L 69 - 78 19% -6  2 - 6 -9 -0 C+ C- F -9 F+ F B+
 Thu, Dec 18 284 Southern Utah W 65 - 57 54% +0  3 - 6 -2 -7 D- D+ C+ +6 C+ A B+
 Sun, Dec 21 248 @Incarnate Word L 66 - 90 26% -10  3 - 7 -26 -7 B F F+ -20 F F F
 Thu, Jan 1 158 @Montana L 64 - 78 14% -4  3 - 8 0 - 1 -11 -2 C- C F -10 F B C
 Sat, Jan 3 166 @Montana St. L 68 - 77 14% -7  3 - 9 0 - 2 -6 +4 B- D B+ -12 F+ D D-
 Thu, Jan 8 221 Weber St. L 65 - 78 40% -5  3 - 10 0 - 3 -19 -5 D- C- A- -16 D+ F+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 227 Idaho St. L 79 - 81 41% -2  3 - 11 0 - 4 -9 +8 D+ A+ D+ -17 F F B+
 Thu, Jan 15 274 @Sacramento St. L 69 - 83 29% -1  3 - 12 0 - 5 -17 -2 C F D- -16 D F F
 Sat, Jan 17 149 @Portland St. L 52 - 63 12% -5  3 - 13 0 - 6 -7 -7 C+ F D -2 B- D- C-
 Mon, Jan 19 158 Montana L 72 - 98 28% -12  3 - 14 0 - 7 -29 +8 A+ F A- -41 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 190 Northern Colorado W 81 - 77 35% +2  4 - 14 1 - 7 -1 +14 A+ B C -15 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 29 245 Eastern Washington W 92 - 86 45% +12  5 - 14 2 - 7 -2 +21 B+ A A+ -22 D F C
 Sat, Jan 31 185 Idaho L 62 - 79 34% -15  5 - 15 2 - 8 -22 -9 D+ C- D+ -13 F A- D+
 Thu, Feb 5 227 @Idaho St. L 68 - 76 22%
 Sat, Feb 7 221 @Weber St. L 72 - 81 21%
 Thu, Feb 12 149 Portland St. L 66 - 73 27%
 Sat, Feb 14 274 Sacramento St. W 78 - 77 51%
 Sat, Feb 21 190 @Northern Colorado L 71 - 81 18%
 Thu, Feb 26 185 @Idaho L 68 - 78 16%
 Sat, Feb 28 245 @Eastern Washington L 72 - 79 24%
 Mon, Mar 2 166 Montana St. L 68 - 74 30%
Totals 7 - 21 4 - 14 -9 -2 C D C -7 D D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 1.6 0.1 2.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 4.2 0.9 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.1 3.4 9.0 3.8 0.2 16.5 9th
10th 9.9 25.5 25.9 10.2 0.9 0.0 72.5 10th
Total 9.9 25.6 29.3 20.7 9.9 3.8 0.6 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.1% 15.4% 15.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
8-10 0.6% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.6
7-11 3.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 3.7
6-12 9.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 9.9
5-13 20.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 20.6
4-14 29.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 29.2
3-15 25.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 25.6
2-16 9.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.9
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 7.2%