Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -8.5 304
Results Rating -7.9 290
Pace 62.3 336
Improvement -0.2 195

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 218 C D- C+ D C-
Defense D- 348 D- D C- C D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 185 C- 57% 206 -0.6 210
2 Pt. Jumpers 42% 126 C- 37% 222 +0.8 134
Three Pointers 38% 242 B 37% 72 +0.0 176
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.4 239 C +0.5 150
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 170
Second Chance D- 23.9% 338 C- 0.99 248 D- 0.24 330
Turnovers C+ 16.4% 154
Freethrows D+ 0.27 281 D- 67% 334 D 0.18 320
Total Offense C- -1.6 218

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 47% 218 D+ 12.3% 264
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 20% 258 D 7.2% 306
Three Pointers C+ 86% 150 B+ 0.2% 24
Total C- 54% 218 D+ 6.5% 277

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 66 D+ 61% 274 +4.1 318
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 330 D+ 40% 270 -1.6 60
Three Pointers 41% 156 D- 38% 323 +2.5 301
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- +1.0 344 D +3.8 320
1st FG Attempt D- 1.12 330
Second Chance D+ 33.0% 291 D+ 1.10 290 D 0.36 309
Turnovers C- 16.4% 203
Freethrows C 0.30 183 C- 74% 257 C 0.22 203
Total Defense D- -6.9 348

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 42% 60 D 7.6% 315
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 30% 273 C- 4.1% 217
Three Pointers D+ 88% 297 D+ 0.5% 258
Total C 55% 178 D+ 4.1% 302

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.2 341 17.2 162
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 332 0.16 132
Improvement +3.8 #29 -3.9 #339

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 318 304 283
Results Rating Rank 323 291 264
Conference Record 4 - 14 5 - 13 6 - 12
Conference Finish 10 10 8
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 92% 71% 97%
First Four1% 1% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Idaho (Away) - 18.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 92 - 13
Quad 46 - 88 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 193 Drake L 71 - 77 27% -0  37% 0 - 1 D+ -8 D -6 D+ F A+ C- -2 D- A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 3 @Arizona L 49 - 84 0% -24  2% 0 - 2 D+ -7 F -12 D+ D- F B+ +6 C B- A
 Mon, Nov 24 231 Cal Poly W 93 - 87 44% +0  54% 1 - 2 C -1 C+ +2 B C- C+ D+ -4 F+ B+ C-
 Wed, Nov 26 222 Southeast Missouri St. W 79 - 72 42% +7  94% 2 - 2 C +1 B- +4 C- A+ B- D+ -3 B- D+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 210 South Dakota St. L 62 - 75 39% -6  17% 2 - 3 F -19 F -16 F D- F+ D+ -3 B D- C
 Sat, Dec 6 129 @North Dakota St. L 68 - 69 11% -1  26% 2 - 4 C+ +4 D- -6 D+ D- C+ A +10 B+ B- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 60 @Arizona St. L 48 - 73 4% -12  2% 2 - 5 D- -13 F -19 F F C+ B +4 C B+ A
 Sat, Dec 13 226 @San Diego L 69 - 78 23% -6  5% 2 - 6 D -10 D -4 C C F D -6 F+ F B+
 Thu, Dec 18 278 Southern Utah W 65 - 57 54% +0  43% 3 - 6 C -2 F -10 F+ D+ C+ A +9 B- A A-
 Sun, Dec 21 269 @Incarnate Word L 66 - 90 30% -10  3% 3 - 7 F -27 F -12 B- F F F -16 F F+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 194 @Montana L 64 - 78 19% -4  15% 3 - 8 0 - 1 D- -13 D -5 D C+ F F+ -9 F B- C
 Sat, Jan 3 164 @Montana St. L 68 - 77 15% -7  13% 3 - 9 0 - 2 D+ -6 C+ +2 B- D B+ F+ -9 F+ F+ D-
 Thu, Jan 8 211 Weber St. L 65 - 78 40% -5  8% 3 - 10 0 - 3 F -19 F+ -8 F C B+ F -12 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 252 Idaho St. L 79 - 81 48% -2  39% 3 - 11 0 - 4 D -10 B- +4 D- A+ D F -14 F F A-
 Thu, Jan 15 276 @Sacramento St. L 69 - 83 31% -1  50% 3 - 12 0 - 5 F+ -17 D- -6 C F D- F -12 D F F
 Sat, Jan 17 150 @Portland St. L 52 - 63 14% -5  26% 3 - 13 0 - 6 D+ -8 F -10 C+ F D- C+ +1 C+ D C
 Mon, Jan 19 194 Montana L 72 - 98 37% -12  6% 3 - 14 0 - 7 F -31 B- +5 A F A- F -39 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 168 Northern Colorado W 81 - 77 31% +2  69% 4 - 14 1 - 7 C +1 A +13 A+ B+ C- F -12 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 29 186 Eastern Washington W 92 - 86 35% +12  99% 5 - 14 2 - 7 C +1 A+ +19 A- A+ A+ F -18 D F C
 Sat, Jan 31 187 Idaho L 62 - 79 36% -15  0% 5 - 15 2 - 8 F -22 F -11 C- D+ D F -11 F A- D
 Thu, Feb 5 252 @Idaho St. W 79 - 73 27% +4  74% 6 - 15 3 - 8 C+ +4 A +14 A+ F A+ F+ -9 F+ F F
 Sat, Feb 7 211 @Weber St. L 53 - 72 21% -7  27% 6 - 16 3 - 9 F -19 F -15 F+ F C+ D- -8 D F C-
 Thu, Feb 12 150 Portland St. L 68 - 77 29% -1  38% 6 - 17 3 - 10 D- -12 C+ +3 C+ C+ A+ F -16 F F B-
 Sat, Feb 14 276 Sacramento St. W 79 - 74 54% +10  98% 7 - 17 4 - 10 C- -4 D -4 B+ F C C -0 D+ D+ B
 Sat, Feb 21 168 @Northern Colorado L 77 - 78 15% -3  9% 7 - 18 4 - 11 C +2 B +6 B- C- B- D+ -4 C+ F D
 Thu, Feb 26 187 @Idaho L 68 - 78 18%
 Sat, Feb 28 186 @Eastern Washington L 71 - 81 18%
 Mon, Mar 2 164 Montana St. L 69 - 74 31%
Totals 8 - 20 5 - 13 -8 C- -2 F C C- D- -7 B D- D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- C- B C 38% 42% 38% C- C D- C- D- C+ D+ D- D D- D+ D+ D- D 43% 15% 41% D- D- D+ D+ D C- C C- C
1.06 57% 37% 37% +1 0 1.02 24% 1.0 .24 16% .27 67% .18 1.18 61% 40% 38% +4 +1 1.12 33% 1.1 .36 16% .30 74% .20
Nov
3		 Drake D F F A+ D- 49% 20% 31% A- D+ C F F A+ F F F C- C F C- D 46% 15% 38% F D- F A+ A+ C F+ D+ F+
1.03 43% 17% 53% -3 +1 0.98 31% 0.5 .14 9% .19 58% .11 1.11 58% 63% 35% +4 +1 1.13 33% 0.3 .11 14% .37 73% .27
Nov
11		 Arizona F D+ F C+ D+ 40% 37% 23% C+ D+ B- F D- F F B- F B+ C- A+ F C 34% 18% 48% D+ C B- B- B- A C F D+
0.69 48% 21% 33% -11 -2 0.77 26% 0.4 .09 24% .13 71% .09 1.18 65% 22% 46% +8 0 1.18 38% 0.9 .35 20% .37 81% .30
Nov
24		 Cal Poly C+ C A A B+ 39% 21% 39% D+ B C- C C- C+ A+ F A- D+ D- A+ D+ F+ 43% 2% 55% D- F+ B+ B- B+ C- A D+ A-
1.17 59% 50% 41% +7 0 1.16 30% 1.1 .33 15% .49 55% .27 1.10 65% 0% 36% +4 +3 1.17 26% 0.9 .23 20% .24 80% .19
Nov
26		 Southeast Missouri St. B- C C+ C- C 49% 26% 26% C- C- D+ A+ A+ B- B D+ C+ D+ C A+ A+ A- 59% 7% 34% F B- C- D+ D+ F A+ A+ A+
1.14 57% 42% 33% 0 0 1.02 25% 2.4 .61 16% .43 72% .31 1.04 56% 25% 20% -9 +3 0.90 29% 1.3 .36 12% .21 54% .11
Dec
3		 South Dakota St. F D+ C+ F F 33% 24% 43% D F F+ C+ D- F+ B F D+ D+ B B B B+ 37% 12% 51% D B D+ D D- C F C- F
0.91 56% 42% 24% -6 -1 0.88 19% 1.1 .22 19% .34 58% .20 1.10 53% 33% 31% -5 +1 0.94 32% 1.2 .37 16% .44 72% .31
Dec
6		 North Dakota St. D- A F A- C 34% 38% 28% F D+ D D- D- C+ F C+ F A A- D+ B B 27% 37% 37% A+ B+ F A+ B- A+ D- A+ C-
0.96 72% 30% 40% +4 -3 1.06 24% 0.8 .18 18% .14 75% .10 0.98 50% 42% 32% -2 -3 0.92 40% 0.7 .29 23% .33 61% .20
Dec
9		 Arizona St. F A- F F F 31% 20% 49% C F F F F C+ F A+ D- B F A+ C+ C- 38% 25% 38% B C C A B+ A F+ A C-
0.74 67% 20% 21% -11 -1 0.80 11% 0.5 .06 20% .19 90% .17 1.12 78% 25% 33% +4 -1 1.08 32% 1.0 .32 20% .42 68% .29
Dec
13		 San Diego D A+ D+ B B- 26% 34% 40% F C C- C+ C F F+ A+ C- D D- B F F+ 33% 20% 47% C- F+ D+ F F B+ F C- F
1.04 75% 38% 37% +6 -3 1.09 32% 1.1 .36 26% .28 86% .24 1.17 67% 33% 43% +8 0 1.18 32% 1.7 .54 21% .46 75% .34
Dec
18		 Southern Utah F F+ D- A+ F+ 51% 31% 18% D+ F+ D- B+ D+ C+ B D- C+ A A B F B 54% 21% 25% D- B- A- A A A- C+ B+ B-
1.00 48% 33% 44% -4 0 0.94 24% 1.1 .27 12% .30 65% .19 0.88 46% 30% 42% -5 +1 0.94 24% 0.8 .18 23% .24 67% .16
Dec
21		 Incarnate Word F B- F A+ B 41% 22% 37% D B- F F F F C+ F F F C C F F 34% 15% 51% D- F F+ D F+ F F B F
0.98 63% 30% 47% +8 0 1.17 11% 0.7 .07 21% .39 48% .19 1.33 56% 38% 44% +7 0 1.17 38% 1.1 .41 10% .49 67% .33
Jan
1		 Montana D F+ C C D+ 34% 28% 38% D D C B- C+ F C- B- C F+ F A F F 39% 14% 47% D+ F B- C+ B- C B- F C
0.98 50% 38% 33% -3 -1 0.94 29% 1.1 .32 20% .29 73% .21 1.19 74% 29% 43% +11 +1 1.27 20% 1.0 .20 20% .27 86% .23
Jan
3		 Montana St. C+ C C+ A+ A- 37% 42% 21% F B- D D+ D B+ F+ F F F+ A- F F F+ 29% 13% 58% F+ F+ F+ D+ F+ D- C+ F D-
1.08 58% 41% 45% +5 -3 1.06 26% 1.0 .26 13% .20 64% .13 1.22 46% 67% 42% +8 0 1.18 33% 1.1 .37 13% .25 93% .24
Jan
8		 Weber St. F+ C- C+ F F 43% 11% 47% B- F D A+ C B+ C- F D F B+ A F D+ 44% 7% 48% D- D+ C- F F F A+ A+ A+
1.04 60% 40% 23% -7 +2 0.91 24% 1.4 .32 13% .31 65% .20 1.24 50% 25% 42% +1 +2 1.09 33% 1.2 .41 8% .12 43% .05
Jan
10		 Idaho St. B- D+ F F F 60% 14% 26% A D- A- A+ A+ D A+ C A+ F F F C- F 41% 20% 39% B- F F C F A- F F+ F
1.23 56% 33% 27% -5 +2 0.98 38% 1.6 .62 17% .49 77% .38 1.26 72% 67% 35% +12 0 1.27 48% 1.0 .48 22% .42 81% .34
Jan
15		 Sacramento St. D- D A+ C+ C 48% 17% 35% C C C- F F D- F B+ D- F A+ C F D+ 37% 21% 42% D D C F F F C+ F D
1.04 52% 63% 35% +2 +1 1.08 32% 0.6 .21 20% .24 77% .19 1.25 37% 36% 45% -1 0 1.00 27% 2.0 .55 11% .34 90% .30
Jan
17		 Portland St. F F+ C A+ B- 40% 26% 35% D+ C+ F F F D- D- F F C+ B A C+ B 47% 9% 45% F C+ F+ C+ D C F A- D
0.84 47% 36% 40% -2 -1 0.98 14% 0.0 .00 21% .31 67% .21 1.02 50% 25% 33% -5 +2 0.96 37% 0.9 .34 19% .38 63% .24
Jan
19		 Montana B- A+ F B A- 40% 4% 56% A+ A F F F A- C F D+ F F F F F 45% 10% 45% F+ F F F F F C D- C-
1.17 75% 0% 36% +7 +2 1.20 20% 0.7 .13 11% .29 63% .18 1.59 73% 60% 59% +26 +2 1.57 33% 2.0 .67 11% .29 81% .24
Jan
24		 Northern Colorado A A+ C+ A+ A+ 33% 33% 33% F A+ F A+ B+ C- C+ D+ C F D D+ F F 26% 26% 48% A+ F F A- F A+ A F B+
1.30 73% 40% 53% +15 -2 1.29 17% 2.3 .39 13% .35 74% .26 1.24 67% 42% 50% +15 -2 1.28 47% 0.9 .43 24% .15 86% .13
Jan
29		 Eastern Washington A+ F A- A+ B+ 55% 8% 37% A A- D- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F B A+ F C- 51% 10% 39% F D F B F C F D F
1.42 48% 50% 56% +7 +3 1.22 27% 2.0 .54 8% .47 93% .43 1.33 52% 20% 47% +3 +2 1.12 49% 1.0 .49 19% .53 79% .42
Jan
31		 Idaho F D B+ D D+ 40% 27% 33% C C- D- B- D+ D C- F F+ F F F+ D F 43% 13% 44% D F A+ C- A- D A+ D- A+
0.95 53% 46% 31% -1 -1 0.98 20% 1.1 .23 17% .33 61% .20 1.21 74% 43% 38% +10 +1 1.24 18% 1.0 .18 14% .16 78% .12
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Idaho St. A A A+ A+ A+ 38% 21% 40% C- A+ F A+ F A+ D- D D- F+ F B+ C+ D- 52% 7% 41% F F+ A+ F F F C C C
1.33 72% 60% 47% +18 0 1.38 9% 1.5 .14 8% .28 73% .20 1.23 70% 33% 33% +5 +3 1.18 24% 1.8 .43 12% .31 75% .23
Feb
7		 Weber St. F D+ F C D- 27% 25% 48% F F+ D- F F C+ C+ F D D- C+ F D D+ 56% 7% 37% F D F D F C- F B- F
0.90 58% 27% 33% -3 -1 0.93 23% 0.5 .11 15% .34 59% .20 1.23 54% 67% 38% +2 +3 1.12 39% 1.1 .42 15% .52 69% .36
Feb
12		 Portland St. C+ C A+ F C+ 32% 16% 52% C C+ D- A+ C+ A+ F A- D- F F F C+ F 61% 16% 24% F F A+ F F B- F F F
1.08 56% 75% 23% -3 0 0.96 24% 1.4 .32 11% .28 81% .23 1.22 70% 50% 33% +9 +2 1.24 20% 2.0 .40 21% .54 81% .44
Feb
14		 Sacramento St. D A+ A+ D- B+ 39% 9% 52% C+ B+ F+ F F C A+ F A+ C F D- A+ C 45% 14% 41% F D+ D C+ D+ B F C F
1.11 72% 100% 29% +7 +2 1.20 26% 0.5 .13 17% .56 64% .36 1.04 68% 43% 20% -3 +1 0.98 31% 1.1 .34 18% .45 77% .34
Feb
21		 Northern Colorado B C- F A C+ 49% 16% 35% B- B- C C- C- B- A+ D+ A D+ D A A B- 55% 15% 30% F C+ B- F F D F C+ F
1.16 56% 25% 39% 0 +1 1.04 26% 1.1 .29 11% .45 74% .34 1.17 65% 29% 29% 0 +2 1.06 25% 1.7 .43 15% .39 73% .28



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.4 0.4 7th
8th 6.3 0.8 7.1 8th
9th 21.5 5.5 0.0 27.1 9th
10th 47.2 18.1 0.1 65.4 10th
Total 47.2 39.6 12.0 1.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.2
6-12 12.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 11.9
5-13 39.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.2 39.4
4-14 47.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.2 47.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 99.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 29.3%