Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#265
Expected Predictive Rating-2.7#208
Pace68.4#196
Improvement+1.8#86

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#203
First Shot-3.2#268
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#60
Layup/Dunks-1.7#239
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#25
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#207
Freethrows-4.1#358
Improvement+1.6#73

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#317
First Shot-6.5#352
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#48
Layups/Dunks-1.7#245
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#247
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#309
Freethrows-0.9#249
Improvement+0.2#167
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.9% 6.1% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 44.7% 55.6% 29.4%
.500 or above in Conference 42.5% 53.3% 27.2%
Conference Champion 4.8% 6.9% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 13.0% 7.5% 20.6%
First Four1.2% 1.3% 1.1%
First Round4.3% 5.5% 2.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Home) - 58.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 32 - 62 - 7
Quad 411 - 814 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2024 94   @ Stanford L 64-90 10%     0 - 1 -17.6 +3.4 -24.7
  Nov 14, 2024 301   @ Pacific W 60-57 47%     1 - 1 -1.7 -10.9 +9.4
  Nov 22, 2024 300   Incarnate Word W 75-74 68%     2 - 1 -9.5 -0.5 -9.0
  Nov 26, 2024 305   Eastern Michigan L 68-72 59%     2 - 2 -11.9 -8.5 -3.5
  Nov 27, 2024 346   @ Houston Christian W 74-71 62%     3 - 2 -5.8 +2.3 -7.9
  Dec 04, 2024 284   @ Oral Roberts L 76-83 43%     3 - 3 -10.7 +1.2 -12.1
  Dec 07, 2024 236   South Dakota W 95-82 56%     4 - 3 +5.8 +6.1 -1.2
  Dec 14, 2024 204   @ Pepperdine L 76-86 26%     4 - 4 -8.9 +3.6 -12.5
  Dec 21, 2024 228   @ Southern Utah W 83-75 31%     5 - 4 +7.4 +7.4 -0.2
  Jan 02, 2025 250   Idaho St. W 70-68 58%    
  Jan 04, 2025 210   Weber St. L 72-73 50%    
  Jan 09, 2025 191   @ Montana L 72-79 26%    
  Jan 11, 2025 155   @ Montana St. L 70-79 21%    
  Jan 16, 2025 335   Sacramento St. W 72-64 78%    
  Jan 18, 2025 251   Portland St. W 77-75 59%    
  Jan 23, 2025 254   @ Eastern Washington L 76-79 38%    
  Jan 25, 2025 259   @ Idaho L 73-76 38%    
  Feb 01, 2025 180   @ Northern Colorado L 74-82 25%    
  Feb 03, 2025 210   @ Weber St. L 70-76 29%    
  Feb 06, 2025 155   Montana St. L 73-76 41%    
  Feb 08, 2025 191   Montana L 75-76 47%    
  Feb 13, 2025 251   @ Portland St. L 74-78 37%    
  Feb 15, 2025 335   @ Sacramento St. W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 20, 2025 259   Idaho W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 22, 2025 254   Eastern Washington W 79-76 59%    
  Mar 01, 2025 180   Northern Colorado L 77-79 44%    
  Mar 03, 2025 250   @ Idaho St. L 67-71 37%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 6.6 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.6 3.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.5 3rd
4th 0.2 2.8 5.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.9 2.5 0.2 0.0 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.1 6.1 3.4 0.3 0.0 12.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 6.2 4.3 0.5 0.0 13.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.4 4.5 0.8 0.0 13.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.9 4.6 3.4 0.8 0.0 12.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.1 2.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 7.8 10th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.9 5.6 8.5 11.2 13.8 13.9 12.9 10.7 8.1 5.3 3.1 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 98.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 93.7% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 81.0% 1.2    0.8 0.4 0.0
13-5 48.1% 1.5    0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 19.2% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.8% 4.8 2.5 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 38.5% 38.5% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 29.6% 29.6% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.6% 23.8% 23.8% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
14-4 1.5% 22.6% 22.6% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.2
13-5 3.1% 16.2% 16.2% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 2.6
12-6 5.3% 13.8% 13.8% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 4.6
11-7 8.1% 9.8% 9.8% 15.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 7.3
10-8 10.7% 7.3% 7.3% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 10.0
9-9 12.9% 5.4% 5.4% 15.8 0.1 0.6 12.2
8-10 13.9% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.4 13.5
7-11 13.8% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 13.6
6-12 11.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 11.1
5-13 8.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 8.4
4-14 5.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.6
3-15 2.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.9
2-16 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.3
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 2.5 95.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%