Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.3 #161
Expected Predictive Rating +2.0 #140
Pace 70.8 #141
Improvement -1.1 #245

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #128 B C- C D+ C+
Defense #227 C+ C F C- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #234 1.24 #87 +0.4 #159
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #249 0.84 #78 -0.5 #201
Three Pointers 46% #83 1.09 #86 +4.5 #44
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #67 +4.4 #66
Freethrows 15.2 #291 73% #164 11.1 #272
Second Chance 26.5% #296 1.14 #76 0.30 #215
Turnovers 16.6% #178
Total Offense +1.4 #128

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #31 1.17 #192 -4.0 #310
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #173 0.78 #212 -0.4 #213
Three Pointers 34% #334 0.84 #18 +6.4 #9
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #112 +2.0 #112
Freethrows 17.9 #208 75% #293 13.4 #126
Second Chance 25.6% #31 1.22 #339 0.31 #163
Turnovers 12.1% #362
Total Defense -1.7 #227

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #150 0.9% #257
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.9% #64 -4.8% #94
Possession Length 17.3 #178 17.0 #141
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #328 0.15 #103
Improvement +0.6 #148 -1.6 #280

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.8% 17.2% 12.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.1
.500 or above 92.4% 95.8% 84.6%
.500 or above in Conference 78.6% 85.2% 63.1%
Conference Champion 12.1% 15.3% 4.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 0.8% 3.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round15.8% 17.2% 12.5%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Weber St. (Home) - 70.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 20 - 11 - 2
Quad 34 - 65 - 8
Quad 413 - 418 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 15 274 @Pepperdine W 88 - 81 OT 62%  +5  1 - 0 +3 +2 C+ C F -0 B- B+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 135 St. Thomas L 72 - 73 43%  +5  1 - 1 +1 -4 C B+ F +5 A+ F C
 Sat, Nov 22 238 @Portland W 86 - 80 OT 54%  +2  2 - 1 +5 +2 C C A- +2 A F D-
 Sun, Nov 23 232 Cal St. Fullerton W 97 - 93 64%  +4  3 - 1 +0 +9 C C+ A+ -9 B- B- F
 Wed, Nov 26 334 @Air Force W 71 - 53 76%  +5  4 - 1 +10 +8 A+ F B- +5 A- C F
 Wed, Dec 3 257 @Nebraska Omaha W 75 - 70 59%  +1  5 - 1 +2 +3 B F C -0 B+ F F
 Sat, Dec 6 290 South Dakota W 89 - 87 OT 82%  +2  6 - 1 -8 +1 A+ F D- -9 D- C+ D+
 Tue, Dec 16 17 @Texas Tech L 90 - 101 4%  -7  6 - 2 +9 +27 A+ A+ A- -19 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 264 Denver L 79 - 86 79%  +2  6 - 3 -16 -6 D F C+ -10 F A+ D
 Sun, Dec 28 77 @Colorado W 86 - 81 15%  +2  7 - 3 +16 +12 A+ C D- +3 A+ B- F
 Thu, Jan 1 153 @Montana St. L 75 - 89 37%  -6  7 - 4 0 - 1 -11 +2 C+ A F -13 D F F
 Sat, Jan 3 178 @Montana L 79 - 88 42%  -9  7 - 5 0 - 2 -7 -0 F C B -6 C+ A- F
 Thu, Jan 8 187 Idaho St. W 85 - 72 67%  +11  8 - 5 1 - 2 +8 +14 A+ D- A- -5 A+ C D-
 Sat, Jan 10 212 Weber St. W 82 - 76 70% 
 Thu, Jan 15 154 @Portland St. L 73 - 76 38% 
 Sat, Jan 17 296 @Sacramento St. W 83 - 79 65% 
 Mon, Jan 19 153 Montana St. W 75 - 72 60% 
 Sat, Jan 24 302 @Northern Arizona W 76 - 71 66% 
 Thu, Jan 29 195 Idaho W 78 - 73 67% 
 Sat, Jan 31 255 Eastern Washington W 85 - 77 77% 
 Thu, Feb 5 212 @Weber St. L 79 - 80 49% 
 Sat, Feb 7 187 @Idaho St. L 75 - 76 45% 
 Thu, Feb 12 296 Sacramento St. W 86 - 76 83% 
 Sat, Feb 14 154 Portland St. W 76 - 73 59% 
 Sat, Feb 21 302 Northern Arizona W 79 - 68 84% 
 Thu, Feb 26 255 @Eastern Washington W 82 - 80 58% 
 Sat, Feb 28 195 @Idaho L 75 - 76 46% 
 Mon, Mar 2 178 Montana W 82 - 78 64% 
Totals 17 - 11 10 - 8 +0 +1 B C- C -2 C+ C F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 1.8 4.1 3.8 1.7 0.3 12.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.5 6.7 4.7 1.3 0.1 16.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.5 8.2 4.7 0.8 0.1 17.5 3rd
4th 0.1 2.7 7.8 4.9 0.7 0.0 16.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 6.3 4.6 0.5 0.0 13.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 4.5 3.8 0.6 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.1 3.1 0.5 0.0 7.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.8 0.4 4.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.1 6.4 9.8 13.5 16.9 17.4 13.8 9.7 5.2 1.8 0.3 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-3 93.2% 1.7    1.4 0.3
14-4 73.8% 3.8    2.4 1.3 0.2
13-5 42.9% 4.1    1.7 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
12-6 12.9% 1.8    0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.1% 12.1 6.1 4.1 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.3% 43.3% 43.3% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
15-3 1.8% 40.1% 40.1% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 1.1
14-4 5.2% 31.9% 31.9% 13.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.5
13-5 9.7% 27.0% 27.0% 13.4 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.1 0.1 7.0
12-6 13.8% 20.5% 20.5% 13.7 0.1 1.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 11.0
11-7 17.4% 17.1% 17.1% 13.9 0.0 0.7 1.7 0.5 14.4
10-8 16.9% 14.1% 14.1% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.7 0.0 14.5
9-9 13.5% 10.7% 10.7% 14.5 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 12.1
8-10 9.8% 6.1% 6.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 9.2
7-11 6.4% 4.5% 4.5% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 6.1
6-12 3.1% 2.8% 2.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 3.0
5-13 1.5% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.1 1.4
4-14 0.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.8% 15.8% 0.0% 13.8 84.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.4 6.9 48.3 41.4 3.4