Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.7#154
Expected Predictive Rating+4.1#104
Pace72.6#77
Improvement+0.0#185

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#99
First Shot+4.9#55
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#303
Layup/Dunks+6.9#9
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#273
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#180
Freethrows-0.3#192
Improvement+0.9#136

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#235
First Shot-5.4#335
After Offensive Rebounds+3.3#4
Layups/Dunks-5.9#353
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#311
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#32
Freethrows-1.8#301
Improvement-0.9#232
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.6% 34.6% 27.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 88.9% 96.4% 70.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round32.6% 34.6% 27.6%
Second Round1.7% 1.9% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana (Home) - 71.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 36 - 37 - 6
Quad 415 - 321 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 98   @ Colorado L 88-90 2OT 26%     0 - 1 +5.4 +2.4 +3.3
  Nov 14, 2024 114   South Dakota St. W 78-69 41%     1 - 1 +12.0 +5.5 +6.4
  Nov 18, 2024 103   @ Washington St. L 69-83 27%     1 - 2 -7.0 -1.6 -5.2
  Nov 20, 2024 161   @ California Baptist W 79-68 42%     2 - 2 +13.8 +3.7 +9.6
  Nov 23, 2024 348   Prairie View W 114-98 92%     3 - 2 +1.1 +17.0 -18.2
  Nov 29, 2024 12   @ Texas Tech L 64-89 5%     3 - 3 -4.9 -0.4 -4.5
  Dec 04, 2024 119   St. Thomas L 75-87 53%     3 - 4 -12.1 +3.7 -16.6
  Dec 07, 2024 139   @ North Dakota St. L 70-82 38%     3 - 5 -8.2 -11.9 +4.9
  Dec 16, 2024 277   Air Force W 81-76 82%     4 - 5 -3.9 +2.6 -6.6
  Dec 21, 2024 331   @ Denver W 82-75 80%     5 - 5 -1.1 +11.9 -12.4
  Jan 02, 2025 286   Weber St. W 89-72 82%     6 - 5 1 - 0 +7.7 +10.9 -3.0
  Jan 04, 2025 234   Idaho St. W 93-92 OT 76%     7 - 5 2 - 0 -5.7 +7.2 -13.0
  Jan 09, 2025 189   @ Montana St. W 83-82 48%     8 - 5 3 - 0 +2.1 +14.1 -12.0
  Jan 11, 2025 207   @ Montana W 81-57 52%     9 - 5 4 - 0 +24.2 +6.2 +18.0
  Jan 16, 2025 215   Portland St. W 72-69 72%     10 - 5 5 - 0 -2.5 -0.1 -2.3
  Jan 18, 2025 337   Sacramento St. W 68-64 91%     11 - 5 6 - 0 -10.0 -1.4 -8.1
  Jan 23, 2025 249   @ Idaho L 76-77 63%     11 - 6 6 - 1 -3.7 +4.3 -8.1
  Jan 25, 2025 252   @ Eastern Washington W 67-62 63%     12 - 6 7 - 1 +2.2 -3.1 +5.6
  Feb 01, 2025 250   Northern Arizona W 87-69 79%     13 - 6 8 - 1 +10.3 +11.0 -0.6
  Feb 03, 2025 234   @ Idaho St. W 86-72 59%     14 - 6 9 - 1 +12.3 +14.6 -1.8
  Feb 06, 2025 207   Montana W 81-76 72%    
  Feb 08, 2025 189   Montana St. W 78-74 68%    
  Feb 13, 2025 337   @ Sacramento St. W 76-66 81%    
  Feb 15, 2025 215   @ Portland St. W 78-77 53%    
  Feb 20, 2025 252   Eastern Washington W 81-73 81%    
  Feb 22, 2025 249   Idaho W 82-74 80%    
  Mar 01, 2025 250   @ Northern Arizona W 79-76 61%    
  Mar 03, 2025 286   @ Weber St. W 78-73 67%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.9 9.6 21.6 28.2 20.0 7.7 88.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.1 4.1 1.6 0.3 9.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.4 5.4 13.7 23.2 28.4 20.0 7.7 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 7.7    7.7
16-2 100.0% 20.0    19.9 0.1
15-3 99.0% 28.2    26.6 1.5
14-4 93.1% 21.6    17.4 4.2 0.0
13-5 69.8% 9.6    5.1 4.0 0.4
12-6 34.9% 1.9    0.4 0.9 0.5 0.1
11-7 5.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 88.9% 88.9 77.2 10.8 0.9 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 7.7% 44.8% 44.8% 12.6 0.1 1.4 1.7 0.3 4.2
16-2 20.0% 39.1% 39.1% 13.4 0.0 0.5 3.8 3.2 0.3 12.2
15-3 28.4% 34.0% 34.0% 13.9 0.2 2.5 5.5 1.5 0.0 18.8
14-4 23.2% 29.5% 29.5% 14.2 0.0 0.9 3.9 2.0 0.1 16.4
13-5 13.7% 25.0% 25.0% 14.5 0.2 1.3 1.8 0.1 10.3
12-6 5.4% 21.3% 21.3% 14.9 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 4.2
11-7 1.4% 13.1% 13.1% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.2
10-8 0.3% 16.0% 16.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.2
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 32.6% 32.6% 0.0% 13.8 0.1 2.2 9.1 14.4 6.5 0.4 67.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.4% 100.0% 12.6 1.5 41.3 50.0 7.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.9%