Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -0.4 168
Results Rating -0.1 161
Pace 70.8 119
Improvement +0.5 171

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 144 B- C- C D- C+
Defense C- 210 C+ C+ F D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 190 B 63% 74 +1.7 111
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% 254 C 38% 192 -1.1 239
Three Pointers 44% 128 B- 36% 113 +2.5 90
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 143 B- +2.7 91
1st FG Attempt B- 1.08 87
Second Chance D+ 27.4% 266 B- 1.09 91 C- 0.30 208
Turnovers C 17.1% 197
Freethrows F+ 0.24 352 C+ 74% 136 D- 0.17 342
Total Offense C +0.8 144

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 48% 180 B+ 7.9% 34
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 19% 260 C 5.2% 203
Three Pointers A- 94% 12 F+ 1.9% 342
Total B- 59% 96 B- 4.8% 87

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 23 C 57% 159 +3.5 296
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 216 D+ 40% 267 -0.1 182
Three Pointers 36% 326 B+ 30% 28 -5.0 10
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.7 291 B- -2.3 90
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.99 123
Second Chance B 26.4% 50 D- 1.15 330 C+ 0.30 160
Turnovers F 12.3% 361
Freethrows D+ 0.33 276 D- 76% 349 D 0.25 309
Total Defense C- -1.3 210

Assists Blocks
Close Shots A 36% 8 D+ 7.9% 308
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 22% 109 D- 1.5% 345
Three Pointers A+ 67% 2 C 1.0% 138
Total A 41% 4 D+ 4.2% 293

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.2 155 17.2 159
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 353 0.14 77
Improvement -0.1 #191 +0.6 #146

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 195 167 140
Results Rating Rank 200 166 131
Conference Record 8 - 10 10 - 8 11 - 7
Conference Finish 7 4 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15% 18% 13%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.7 14.1
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 88% 100% 79%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round15% 18% 13%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Eastern Washington (Away) - 43.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 20 - 11 - 2
Quad 37 - 68 - 8
Quad 410 - 518 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 15 281 @Pepperdine W 88 - 81 OT 63% +5  93% 1 - 0 C+ +3 D+ -2 C+ C F B +5 B A- F
 Fri, Nov 21 128 St. Thomas L 72 - 73 39% +5  92% 1 - 1 C +1 D- -7 C- A- F A- +8 A+ F C
 Sat, Nov 22 220 @Portland W 86 - 80 OT 50% +2  64% 2 - 1 B- +6 C -0 C C A- B +5 A F D
 Sun, Nov 23 208 Cal St. Fullerton W 97 - 93 58% +4  85% 3 - 1 C +1 B +7 C- B A+ D -6 C+ B- F
 Wed, Nov 26 351 @Air Force W 71 - 53 83% +5  73% 4 - 1 B- +7 C+ +3 A- F C A- +7 A- D+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 239 @Nebraska Omaha W 75 - 70 53% +1  56% 5 - 1 C+ +4 C +1 B- F C+ B- +3 B+ F D-
 Sat, Dec 6 293 South Dakota W 89 - 87 OT 83% +2  67% 6 - 1 D -9 C +1 A D+ D F+ -10 D D+ C-
 Tue, Dec 16 14 @Texas Tech L 90 - 101 3% -7  0% 6 - 2 B +11 A+ +26 A+ A+ B+ F -16 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 228 Denver L 79 - 86 73% +2  58% 6 - 3 D- -14 D- -7 D+ D+ C+ D- -6 F+ A+ D+
 Sun, Dec 28 66 @Colorado W 86 - 81 13% +2  57% 7 - 3 A- +17 A- +11 A+ C+ C- B+ +5 A+ B- F
 Thu, Jan 1 164 @Montana St. L 75 - 89 38% -6  8% 7 - 4 0 - 1 D- -11 C- -1 D+ A D F -10 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 194 @Montana L 79 - 88 45% -9  0% 7 - 5 0 - 2 D+ -8 C- -2 F B- B D -6 B- B+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 252 Idaho St. W 85 - 72 76% +11  98% 8 - 5 1 - 2 B- +5 B+ +9 A+ D- B D+ -3 B+ C+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 211 Weber St. L 71 - 76 70% -1  37% 8 - 6 1 - 3 D -11 D -6 F B C- D -5 C- B D
 Thu, Jan 15 150 @Portland St. L 73 - 76 36% +1  58% 8 - 7 1 - 4 C +0 C +2 A+ F C- C -1 C- F A
 Sat, Jan 17 276 @Sacramento St. L 89 - 93 OT 61% +7  86% 8 - 8 1 - 5 D+ -7 C- -1 B- F C- D -6 D+ D+ F
 Mon, Jan 19 164 Montana St. L 68 - 73 61% -4  25% 8 - 9 1 - 6 D -8 D -4 D A- D D+ -4 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 304 @Northern Arizona L 77 - 81 69% -2  18% 8 - 10 1 - 7 D -9 B +6 A B F F -16 F F F+
 Thu, Jan 29 187 Idaho W 91 - 83 66% +2  54% 9 - 10 2 - 7 C+ +3 B +6 A- D C D+ -3 B+ A F
 Sat, Jan 31 186 Eastern Washington W 74 - 71 66% -1  34% 10 - 10 3 - 7 C -2 D+ -3 D F A+ C+ +2 B- C- C-
 Thu, Feb 5 211 @Weber St. W 88 - 74 47% +10  95% 11 - 10 4 - 7 B+ +14 A +13 A A+ B+ C+ +1 B+ A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 252 @Idaho St. W 69 - 61 56% +3  68% 12 - 10 5 - 7 B- +6 D -5 C B F A+ +11 A+ C- F
 Thu, Feb 12 276 Sacramento St. W 95 - 79 80% +10  98% 13 - 10 6 - 7 B- +7 C +2 A+ F C- B- +3 B+ A F
 Sat, Feb 14 150 Portland St. W 77 - 65 59% 14 - 10 7 - 7 B +9
 Sat, Feb 21 304 Northern Arizona W 78 - 77 85% +3  83% 15 - 10 8 - 7 D -10 C- -2 D+ B B- F+ -9 C- D F
 Thu, Feb 26 186 @Eastern Washington L 78 - 80 43%
 Sat, Feb 28 187 @Idaho L 76 - 78 43%
 Mon, Mar 2 194 Montana W 80 - 75 67%
Totals 17 - 11 10 - 8 +0 C +1 D+ B- C+ C- -1 B- C+ D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C B C B- B- 38% 31% 44% C+ B- D+ B- C- C F+ C+ D- C- C D+ B+ B- 45% 19% 36% D+ C+ B D- C+ F D+ D- D
1.10 63% 38% 36% +3 0 1.08 27% 1.1 .30 17% .24 74% .17 1.10 57% 40% 30% -2 +1 0.99 26% 1.1 .30 12% .33 76% .18
Nov
15		 Pepperdine D+ C- A+ C- C+ 43% 13% 44% C C+ C+ D+ C F A+ B+ A+ B B+ F A+ B+ 46% 22% 32% D B C- A+ A- F F A F+
1.07 57% 57% 33% +1 +1 1.07 34% 1.0 .34 24% .40 76% .30 0.98 48% 50% 25% -6 0 0.90 30% 0.6 .18 13% .42 67% .28
Nov
21		 St. Thomas D- C+ A+ F D 47% 9% 44% B+ C- D+ A+ A- F A+ A- A+ A- A- A+ B+ A+ 48% 9% 43% D+ A+ F F+ F C B A- B+
0.99 62% 50% 25% -3 +2 1.00 26% 1.7 .44 25% .38 81% .31 1.00 54% 20% 30% -6 +2 0.94 30% 1.1 .32 15% .26 63% .16
Nov
22		 Portland C C A+ F C- 43% 15% 43% B C F A+ C A- D A+ C+ B C+ D A+ A+ 48% 12% 40% F A C- F F D A- C- B+
1.07 58% 56% 27% -2 +1 1.00 17% 2.0 .34 14% .26 89% .23 0.99 59% 43% 17% -10 +2 0.87 30% 1.6 .48 17% .24 75% .18
Nov
23		 Cal St. Fullerton B B+ C- D+ C- 35% 15% 51% C C- D A+ B A+ A+ A+ A+ D C+ A- B B 55% 16% 30% F C+ B C- B- F F B- F
1.20 68% 38% 32% +2 +1 1.07 24% 1.5 .36 11% .56 85% .47 1.15 57% 30% 32% -3 +2 1.00 21% 1.0 .21 5% .43 70% .30
Nov
26		 Air Force C+ A- A A A 35% 16% 49% B- A- F D+ F C F F F A- F A+ A+ B 31% 38% 31% A+ A- B+ F D+ F B- A B
1.16 71% 50% 42% +12 0 1.27 15% 1.0 .15 15% .15 63% .10 0.87 87% 22% 13% -7 -3 0.83 18% 1.5 .27 16% .27 57% .16
Dec
3		 Nebraska Omaha C F A+ A C+ 43% 8% 49% A- B- C- F F C+ D A+ C+ B- A- A C+ A 48% 15% 38% F B+ B F F D- F B+ D-
1.13 50% 75% 40% +4 +2 1.14 29% 0.5 .14 14% .26 87% .23 1.06 48% 29% 33% -7 +1 0.92 23% 1.6 .37 14% .38 68% .26
Dec
6		 South Dakota C A B- A+ A+ 47% 17% 36% C- A F A+ D+ D A+ F C+ F+ C- F A+ D 58% 23% 19% D D C F+ D+ C- D- F F
1.17 72% 44% 42% +12 +1 1.28 21% 1.7 .34 18% .40 56% .22 1.14 58% 58% 20% +1 +1 1.06 27% 1.1 .30 17% .43 93% .39
Dec
16		 Texas Tech A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 34% 23% 43% B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ F F F F F F F F 28% 22% 50% B- F A+ F A+ F F D- F
1.31 74% 46% 42% +12 -1 1.25 38% 1.4 .53 15% .14 50% .07 1.47 80% 75% 44% +22 -1 1.44 15% 1.5 .23 4% .37 79% .29
Dec
20		 Denver D- A+ F F D 44% 15% 41% C+ D+ C+ F D+ C+ F F F D- D- A+ F D 54% 20% 26% F F+ A+ F A+ D+ D+ F F+
1.10 81% 22% 21% 0 +1 1.03 36% 0.9 .33 13% .16 40% .06 1.20 62% 27% 50% +6 +1 1.17 11% 1.7 .19 13% .32 90% .29
Dec
28		 Colorado A- D A+ A+ A+ 42% 21% 38% B- A+ D+ A C+ C- C- B+ C B+ A- A- C+ A+ 38% 29% 32% A- A+ C B B- F A+ F B+
1.18 50% 55% 50% +9 0 1.21 24% 1.3 .31 18% .28 76% .22 1.11 52% 32% 33% -5 -1 0.91 32% 0.9 .28 7% .22 93% .21
Jan
1		 Montana St. C- C F C D+ 40% 19% 40% C- D+ C+ A+ A D D A+ C F C- F A- C- 39% 18% 43% F D+ A- F F F C- B- C-
1.04 57% 20% 33% -4 0 0.94 32% 1.5 .47 18% .22 92% .20 1.24 59% 70% 29% +3 0 1.09 22% 2.4 .53 10% .28 72% .20
Jan
3		 Montana C- C- F F+ F 23% 30% 48% F F C+ B+ B- B B- A- B D F A- B+ B- 35% 20% 45% B- B- A- C+ B+ F F F F
1.03 57% 28% 28% -8 -2 0.82 30% 1.1 .35 13% .32 76% .24 1.15 72% 30% 30% +1 0 1.04 16% 1.0 .16 14% .58 92% .53
Jan
8		 Idaho St. B+ A A+ A+ A+ 27% 10% 63% C+ A+ D- D D- B F+ D F+ D+ D- C+ A+ A 53% 17% 30% D B+ C- B C+ D F C F
1.31 71% 60% 42% +14 +1 1.31 23% 1.0 .23 12% .26 73% .19 1.11 64% 38% 14% -6 +2 0.94 33% 0.9 .31 15% .42 74% .31
Jan
10		 Weber St. D B- F+ F F 55% 21% 23% C+ F A+ F+ B C- B- A- B+ D C+ F B+ B- 73% 4% 22% F C- C A- B D F B- F
1.07 65% 30% 9% -6 +1 0.91 41% 0.9 .38 17% .36 80% .29 1.14 55% 50% 30% -3 +5 1.04 31% 0.8 .25 14% .57 70% .40
Jan
15		 Portland St. C A+ F A+ A+ 26% 16% 58% C- A+ F F F C- D F+ F+ C D+ F A D+ 43% 26% 32% B+ C- F+ F F A F C- F
1.01 77% 25% 41% +9 0 1.20 13% 0.0 .00 19% .33 68% .22 1.05 60% 50% 27% 0 0 1.02 37% 1.2 .43 24% .51 71% .36
Jan
17		 Sacramento St. C- A+ D+ D- B 41% 16% 43% C- B- F D- F C- F A+ F D F C B- D 26% 27% 47% B- D+ D+ C- D+ F F B F
1.11 77% 40% 30% +5 +1 1.14 24% 1.0 .24 17% .20 85% .17 1.16 69% 35% 31% 0 -2 0.98 30% 1.2 .34 10% .47 74% .35
Jan
19		 Montana St. D F D- C D- 51% 16% 33% B D A+ D+ A- D F F F D+ A- C+ F C 40% 10% 50% F D+ A+ A A+ F F C- F
1.04 46% 33% 33% -7 +1 0.91 44% 1.0 .44 18% .06 33% .02 1.11 48% 40% 42% +2 +2 1.10 15% 0.8 .12 11% .36 76% .27
Jan
24		 Northern Arizona B B+ B- A+ A+ 26% 26% 48% F A A+ F+ B F F A+ F F F D+ F F 33% 33% 33% A F A- F F F+ F F+ F
1.24 67% 42% 50% +15 -2 1.28 47% 0.9 .43 24% .15 86% .13 1.30 73% 40% 53% +15 -2 1.29 17% 2.3 .39 13% .35 74% .26
Jan
29		 Idaho B B+ F A+ B+ 50% 19% 31% A A- D- B D C A+ D A+ D+ A+ F+ C- A- 38% 13% 50% D+ B+ A- A A F F F F
1.20 65% 30% 44% +7 +1 1.17 19% 1.2 .22 14% .51 70% .35 1.09 38% 43% 36% -6 +1 0.93 21% 0.8 .17 8% .40 86% .34
Jan
31		 Eastern Washington D+ B- A+ F D- 38% 9% 54% B- D C- F F A+ F A- F C+ B B D+ B 52% 17% 31% F B- A+ F C- C- A+ F A-
1.10 62% 60% 27% -2 +1 1.00 31% 0.8 .24 6% .17 82% .14 1.05 52% 33% 38% -2 +1 1.00 21% 1.7 .36 18% .18 90% .16
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Weber St. A A- A+ A A+ 44% 15% 41% C+ A D A+ A+ B+ F D+ F C+ B- F A+ A- 54% 15% 31% D+ B+ C+ A+ A+ F D- F F
1.30 71% 50% 41% +12 +1 1.28 24% 2.0 .48 13% .17 70% .12 1.10 54% 75% 13% -7 +2 0.92 30% 0.5 .15 9% .39 83% .32
Feb
7		 Idaho St. D B C- C+ C+ 41% 24% 35% D+ C D- A+ B F F A+ F A+ A+ A+ B A+ 44% 19% 37% C+ A+ A+ F C- F B- B+ B
1.07 65% 42% 35% +4 0 1.10 23% 1.7 .38 20% .15 88% .14 0.94 39% 20% 32% -13 +1 0.77 24% 1.4 .34 11% .28 69% .19
Feb
12		 Sacramento St. C A+ A- B A+ 45% 6% 48% B A+ F F F C- F B+ F B- A D+ A A 39% 17% 44% F B+ A+ C- A F F F+ F
1.20 79% 50% 37% +12 +2 1.31 24% 0.9 .21 18% .20 77% .15 0.99 43% 40% 27% -10 +1 0.83 17% 1.1 .20 10% .43 84% .36
Feb
14		 Portland St.
Feb
21		 Northern Arizona C- B F F D 55% 15% 30% B D+ F+ A+ B B- A C- A- F+ C+ A+ D- C+ 49% 16% 35% F C- C- D- D F F F+ F
1.17 65% 29% 29% 0 +2 1.06 25% 1.7 .43 15% .39 73% .28 1.16 56% 25% 39% 0 +1 1.04 26% 1.1 .29 11% .45 74% .34



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2.2 8.9 11.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 12.6 4.5 17.2 3rd
4th 4.4 19.5 23.9 4th
5th 14.6 3.6 18.2 5th
6th 1.3 14.8 0.2 16.3 6th
7th 10.6 2.7 13.3 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 12.0 36.6 38.0 13.4 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 13.4% 20.7% 20.7% 13.2 0.3 1.6 0.8 0.0 10.7
10-8 38.0% 17.2% 17.2% 13.9 0.0 1.8 3.8 1.0 0.0 31.5
9-9 36.6% 12.9% 12.9% 14.1 0.0 0.7 2.7 1.3 0.0 31.9
8-10 12.0% 7.2% 7.2% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 11.1
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.9% 14.9% 0.0% 13.9 85.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.8% 100.0% 13.2 9.6 59.2 30.4 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.4%
Lose Out 4.4%