Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.1 #190
Expected Predictive Rating -2.5 #203
Pace 70.8 #127
Improvement -3.1 #308

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #146 B- C- C D C
Defense #259 C C F+ D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #219 1.25 #82 +0.8 #148
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #226 0.77 #157 -0.9 #229
Three Pointers 45% #98 1.07 #101 +3.2 #74
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #82 +3.2 #83
Freethrows 0.24 #339 74% #127 0.18 #319
Second Chance 28.1% #254 1.03 #164 0.29 #231
Turnovers 16.7% #178
Total Offense +0.6 #146

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #30 1.17 #193 -3.8 #304
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #194 0.80 #264 -0.2 #202
Three Pointers 35% #331 0.92 #57 +4.6 #20
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #157 +0.6 #157
Freethrows 0.33 #285 76% #342 0.25 #313
Second Chance 26.7% #52 1.17 #341 0.31 #175
Turnovers 12.5% #354
Total Defense -2.7 #259

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.5% #160 1.0% #271
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.6% #81 -2.1% #139
Possession Length 17.2 #158 17.2 #175
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #352 0.14 #74
Improvement -0.9 #230 -2.2 #303

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.2% 9.2% 5.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.3 14.9
.500 or above 64.4% 79.9% 52.7%
.500 or above in Conference 22.6% 38.4% 10.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.8% 2.6% 10.0%
First Four0.4% 0.1% 0.7%
First Round7.1% 9.2% 5.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Weber St. (Away) - 43.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 20 - 11 - 2
Quad 35 - 76 - 10
Quad 410 - 515 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 15 283 @Pepperdine W 88 - 81 OT 57% +5  1 - 0 +3 +2 B- C F -0 B- B F
 Fri, Nov 21 133 St. Thomas L 72 - 73 36% +5  1 - 1 +1 -4 C- B F +4 A+ F C
 Sat, Nov 22 232 @Portland W 86 - 80 OT 46% +2  2 - 1 +5 +2 C C B+ +2 A- F D+
 Sun, Nov 23 224 Cal St. Fullerton W 97 - 93 55% +4  3 - 1 +1 +10 C B- A+ -10 C+ C+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 350 @Air Force W 71 - 53 75% +5  4 - 1 +9 +7 A+ F C+ +4 B+ C- F+
 Wed, Dec 3 241 @Nebraska Omaha W 75 - 70 48% +1  5 - 1 +3 +5 B- F C+ -2 B F+ D-
 Sat, Dec 6 285 South Dakota W 89 - 87 OT 78% +2  6 - 1 -8 +2 A D D -10 D+ C C-
 Tue, Dec 16 17 @Texas Tech L 90 - 101 3% -7  6 - 2 +10 +27 A+ A+ B -17 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 288 Denver L 79 - 86 78% +2  6 - 3 -17 -6 D D C -11 F+ A+ D+
 Sun, Dec 28 72 @Colorado W 86 - 81 11% +2  7 - 3 +16 +13 A+ C+ D +3 A+ B- F
 Thu, Jan 1 166 @Montana St. L 75 - 89 33% -6  7 - 4 0 - 1 -11 +1 D+ A D -13 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 158 @Montana L 79 - 88 31% -9  7 - 5 0 - 2 -6 +2 F+ C+ B- -7 C+ A- F
 Thu, Jan 8 227 Idaho St. W 85 - 72 67% +11  8 - 5 1 - 2 +6 +13 A+ D- B+ -6 A- C D
 Sat, Jan 10 221 Weber St. L 71 - 76 66% -1  8 - 6 1 - 3 -11 -3 D- C+ C -9 C- B D-
 Thu, Jan 15 149 @Portland St. L 73 - 76 29% +1  8 - 7 1 - 4 +1 +5 A+ F C- -4 C F A-
 Sat, Jan 17 274 @Sacramento St. L 89 - 93 OT 55% +7  8 - 8 1 - 5 -7 +2 B- F C -9 D C- F
 Mon, Jan 19 166 Montana St. L 68 - 73 55% -4  8 - 9 1 - 6 -8 -2 D A- D -7 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 313 @Northern Arizona L 77 - 81 65% -2  8 - 10 1 - 7 -10 +9 A- B F -19 F F F+
 Thu, Jan 29 185 Idaho W 91 - 83 60% +2  9 - 10 2 - 7 +3 +8 B+ D+ C+ -5 B A F
 Sat, Jan 31 245 Eastern Washington W 74 - 71 71% -1  10 - 10 3 - 7 -5 -2 D F A+ -3 C+ C- C-
 Thu, Feb 5 221 @Weber St. L 79 - 81 43%
 Sat, Feb 7 227 @Idaho St. L 75 - 76 45%
 Thu, Feb 12 274 Sacramento St. W 85 - 78 75%
 Sat, Feb 14 149 Portland St. W 73 - 72 52%
 Sat, Feb 21 313 Northern Arizona W 81 - 71 82%
 Thu, Feb 26 245 @Eastern Washington L 79 - 80 48%
 Sat, Feb 28 185 @Idaho L 75 - 78 37%
 Mon, Mar 2 158 Montana W 78 - 77 53%
Totals 14 - 14 7 - 11 -2 +1 B- C- C -3 C C F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.3 0.6 2.1 3rd
4th 0.4 3.6 3.5 0.3 7.8 4th
5th 0.2 4.9 8.0 1.2 0.0 14.3 5th
6th 0.1 4.5 12.4 3.4 0.1 20.5 6th
7th 0.1 2.4 11.8 5.8 0.2 20.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 8.4 7.9 0.6 18.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 5.8 6.1 1.1 14.3 9th
10th 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.1 2.3 10th
Total 0.3 2.2 8.2 17.1 25.5 24.1 15.3 6.2 1.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.9% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 1.1% 20.8% 20.8% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.8
10-8 6.2% 17.7% 17.7% 13.7 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 5.1
9-9 15.3% 11.8% 11.8% 14.1 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.0 13.5
8-10 24.1% 8.3% 8.3% 14.7 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.1 22.1
7-11 25.5% 4.7% 4.7% 15.2 0.0 0.9 0.3 24.3
6-12 17.1% 3.3% 3.3% 15.6 0.2 0.4 16.5
5-13 8.2% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3 7.9
4-14 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 2.1
3-15 0.3% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 14.6 92.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.9 18.2 77.3 4.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 0.2%