Oakland
Horizon
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#188
Expected Predictive Rating-2.7#212
Pace58.5#359
Improvement+1.5#117

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#174
First Shot-1.9#234
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#49
Layup/Dunks+0.5#160
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#154
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#237
Freethrows-0.8#231
Improvement+2.8#42

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#221
First Shot+0.2#171
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#321
Layups/Dunks+5.2#32
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#353
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#314
Freethrows+2.7#30
Improvement-1.3#257
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.5% 9.5% 6.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 15.0% 19.3% 6.1%
.500 or above in Conference 90.1% 96.3% 77.3%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.3% 2.0% 3.1%
First Round7.7% 8.8% 5.6%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Youngstown St. (Home) - 67.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 35 - 66 - 13
Quad 49 - 414 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 51   @ Boise St. L 43-87 10%     0 - 1 -31.3 -21.7 -12.6
  Nov 13, 2024 13   @ Illinois L 54-66 4%     0 - 2 +7.7 -8.1 +15.6
  Nov 16, 2024 7   @ Kansas L 57-78 3%     0 - 3 +0.5 +2.8 -4.6
  Nov 21, 2024 300   Eastern Michigan L 64-68 80%     0 - 4 -14.2 -7.4 -7.3
  Nov 30, 2024 201   @ Toledo W 85-52 43%     1 - 4 +33.5 +16.9 +20.1
  Dec 05, 2024 196   Wright St. W 66-64 61%     2 - 4 1 - 0 -2.1 -2.1 +0.2
  Dec 07, 2024 219   @ Youngstown St. L 50-66 48%     2 - 5 1 - 1 -16.8 -13.4 -5.8
  Dec 17, 2024 15   Michigan St. L 58-77 5%     2 - 6 -2.1 +0.2 -4.2
  Dec 19, 2024 157   @ Cleveland St. L 75-92 34%     2 - 7 1 - 2 -14.0 +11.5 -26.9
  Dec 22, 2024 128   Loyola Chicago W 72-71 38%     3 - 7 +2.9 +8.4 -5.4
  Dec 23, 2024 76   Oregon St. L 74-80 OT 20%     3 - 8 +1.5 +4.8 -3.5
  Dec 25, 2024 180   @ Hawaii L 70-73 OT 39%     3 - 9 -1.4 -0.7 -0.8
  Dec 30, 2024 43   @ Arkansas L 62-92 8%     3 - 10 -15.9 -3.6 -11.8
  Jan 02, 2025 133   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 65-49 48%     4 - 10 2 - 2 +15.1 +0.6 +16.7
  Jan 04, 2025 194   Robert Morris L 71-79 60%     4 - 11 2 - 3 -12.1 +3.2 -16.0
  Jan 09, 2025 196   @ Wright St. L 62-66 42%     4 - 12 2 - 4 -3.2 -6.0 +2.4
  Jan 11, 2025 244   @ Northern Kentucky W 68-53 54%     5 - 12 3 - 4 +12.6 +12.6 +3.4
  Jan 15, 2025 330   IU Indianapolis W 72-59 86%     6 - 12 4 - 4 -0.1 -3.8 +5.0
  Jan 18, 2025 323   @ Detroit Mercy W 65-59 72%     7 - 12 5 - 4 -1.5 +2.4 -2.8
  Jan 22, 2025 149   Purdue Fort Wayne W 76-72 51%     8 - 12 6 - 4 +2.4 +9.9 -6.9
  Jan 25, 2025 194   @ Robert Morris L 71-73 41%     8 - 13 6 - 5 -1.1 +6.7 -8.0
  Jan 30, 2025 347   Green Bay W 68-54 89%     9 - 13 7 - 5 -0.5 -0.6 +2.7
  Feb 01, 2025 244   Northern Kentucky L 75-84 72%     9 - 14 7 - 6 -16.4 +1.2 -17.6
  Feb 06, 2025 219   Youngstown St. W 69-65 67%    
  Feb 12, 2025 330   @ IU Indianapolis W 73-66 72%    
  Feb 16, 2025 323   Detroit Mercy W 70-59 86%    
  Feb 21, 2025 149   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 70-75 31%    
  Feb 23, 2025 157   Cleveland St. W 66-65 53%    
  Feb 27, 2025 133   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 67-72 29%    
  Mar 01, 2025 347   @ Green Bay W 73-65 76%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.5 1st
2nd 0.4 3.3 1.7 5.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.4 6.2 0.2 11.0 3rd
4th 0.2 4.2 13.9 2.2 20.4 4th
5th 0.1 3.0 13.5 7.6 0.1 24.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.9 10.1 10.2 0.7 23.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 5.1 6.3 1.1 13.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.3 2.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 1.7 8.1 19.9 29.2 26.9 11.9 2.3 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 19.0% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 2.3% 15.9% 15.9% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.9
13-7 11.9% 14.3% 14.3% 14.9 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.1 10.2
12-8 26.9% 11.1% 11.1% 15.4 0.0 1.8 1.1 23.9
11-9 29.2% 7.3% 7.3% 15.9 0.2 1.9 27.1
10-10 19.9% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.0 1.0 18.9
9-11 8.1% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.3 7.8
8-12 1.7% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.1 1.6
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 3.5 4.5 91.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 13.7 2.8 36.1 47.2 13.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%