Oakland
Horizon
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.2 #124
Expected Predictive Rating +4.0 #112
Pace 74.9 #47
Improvement +0.0 #183

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #57 B- C+ A+ A- B-
Defense #297 D C D- B+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #42 1.20 #133 +4.4 #50
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #191 0.75 #178 -0.3 #195
Three Pointers 36% #290 1.08 #97 -1.5 #239
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #111 +2.6 #111
Freethrows 20.6 #43 76% #84 15.6 #28
Second Chance 31.0% #177 1.10 #117 0.34 #134
Turnovers 12.9% #14
Total Offense +6.0 #57

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #231 1.32 #339 -2.1 #251
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #155 0.86 #316 -1.4 #279
Three Pointers 42% #155 0.98 #148 +0.2 #177
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #284 -3.3 #285
Freethrows 14.5 #45 71% #130 10.3 #322
Second Chance 32.1% #233 1.01 #147 0.32 #187
Turnovers 14.3% #312
Total Defense -3.8 #297

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #112 -0.4% #131
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.8% #125 6.9% #302
Possession Length 16.4 #97 16.5 #66
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #25 0.14 #80
Improvement -0.2 #200 +0.2 #171

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.2% 33.4% 26.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 13.8
.500 or above 96.2% 98.2% 92.4%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.3%
Conference Champion 63.8% 75.7% 40.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round31.2% 33.4% 26.7%
Second Round1.9% 2.2% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wright St. (Home) - 66.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 36 - 46 - 10
Quad 414 - 220 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 1 @Michigan L 78 - 121 1%  -27  0 - 1 -13 +14 A+ D+ A+ -23 F F D-
 Fri, Nov 7 4 @Purdue L 77 - 87 2%  -3  0 - 2 +16 +15 B+ A+ A+ +1 B A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 11 @Houston L 45 - 78 4%  -21  0 - 3 -11 -10 F F B+ -5 C C F
 Mon, Nov 17 50 @Central Florida L 83 - 87 14%  -5  0 - 4 +10 +12 B- C A+ -3 C C+ C
 Fri, Nov 21 197 @Eastern Michigan L 91 - 97 55%  -1  0 - 5 -5 +15 A+ B A+ -20 F A+ C-
 Mon, Nov 24 231 Lamar W 83 - 68 72%  +4  1 - 5 +11 +10 D+ A+ A- +1 C F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 178 @Montana W 95 - 87 52%  +4  2 - 5 +10 +13 A+ F B+ -4 D- F C+
 Wed, Dec 3 243 Purdue Fort Wayne W 101 - 92 82%  +8  3 - 5 1 - 0 +1 +15 A+ C A+ -15 F C F
 Sat, Dec 6 180 Toledo W 98 - 97 74%  -1  4 - 5 -3 +11 C- B+ A+ -14 F F C
 Sat, Dec 13 96 @Northern Iowa L 63 - 75 27%  -5  4 - 6 -4 -4 C C+ F +1 B- B- F
 Wed, Dec 17 174 @Northern Kentucky W 82 - 77 51%  +2  5 - 6 2 - 0 +7 +7 D D- A+ -0 C B+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 14 Michigan St. L 70 - 79 8%  -4  5 - 7 +9 +11 A+ C C -3 B- C C-
 Mon, Dec 29 148 @Wright St. L 73 - 88 45%  -14  5 - 8 2 - 1 -11 +1 D- D- C -12 F C+ B-
 Thu, Jan 1 210 @Youngstown St. W 85 - 83 57%  -4  6 - 8 3 - 1 +2 +19 A+ B+ A+ -17 C F F
 Sun, Jan 4 206 Robert Morris W 96 - 73 77%  +14  7 - 8 4 - 1 +17 +22 C A+ A+ -4 D+ A D-
 Fri, Jan 9 321 Cleveland St. W 97 - 72 91%  +14  8 - 8 5 - 1 +12 +10 F A+ D+ +1 A+ D F
 Sun, Jan 11 148 Wright St. W 83 - 78 67% 
 Thu, Jan 15 226 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 86 - 83 60% 
 Sun, Jan 18 249 @Green Bay W 81 - 77 65% 
 Wed, Jan 21 355 IU Indianapolis W 103 - 84 96% 
 Sat, Jan 24 281 @Detroit Mercy W 87 - 81 71% 
 Wed, Jan 28 243 @Purdue Fort Wayne W 85 - 81 64% 
 Sun, Feb 1 174 Northern Kentucky W 86 - 80 72% 
 Wed, Feb 4 321 @Cleveland St. W 90 - 81 80% 
 Thu, Feb 12 210 Youngstown St. W 84 - 76 77% 
 Sun, Feb 15 206 @Robert Morris W 82 - 80 56% 
 Fri, Feb 20 249 Green Bay W 84 - 74 82% 
 Sun, Feb 22 226 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 89 - 80 79% 
 Wed, Feb 25 355 @IU Indianapolis W 100 - 87 88% 
 Sat, Feb 28 281 Detroit Mercy W 90 - 78 86% 
Totals 18 - 12 15 - 5 +2 +6 B- C+ A+ -4 D C D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 4.3 11.7 17.7 17.0 9.6 2.9 63.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.2 8.1 7.2 3.1 0.6 0.0 22.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 3.9 2.0 0.4 0.0 8.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.0 1.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 4.3 8.5 14.5 19.4 20.8 17.5 9.7 2.9 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 2.9    2.9
18-2 99.8% 9.6    9.5 0.2
17-3 96.8% 17.0    15.3 1.6 0.0
16-4 85.2% 17.7    13.2 4.4 0.2
15-5 60.5% 11.7    5.9 4.9 0.9 0.0
14-6 29.4% 4.3    1.1 1.9 1.1 0.2 0.0
13-7 6.3% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 63.8% 63.8 47.9 13.1 2.4 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 2.9% 50.3% 50.3% 11.9 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.4
18-2 9.7% 44.2% 44.2% 12.8 0.0 1.3 2.4 0.5 0.0 5.4
17-3 17.5% 38.4% 38.4% 13.2 0.9 3.6 2.2 0.1 10.8
16-4 20.8% 32.9% 32.9% 13.5 0.3 3.0 3.2 0.3 14.0
15-5 19.4% 28.7% 28.7% 13.8 0.1 1.7 3.1 0.7 13.8
14-6 14.5% 24.8% 24.8% 14.1 0.0 0.6 2.1 0.9 0.0 10.9
13-7 8.5% 20.2% 20.2% 14.5 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 6.8
12-8 4.3% 17.2% 17.2% 14.9 0.1 0.6 0.0 3.5
11-9 1.6% 13.0% 13.0% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.4
10-10 0.6% 8.5% 8.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.5
9-11 0.2% 0.2
8-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 31.2% 31.2% 0.0% 13.5 68.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 100.0% 11.9 25.5 61.7 12.4 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%