Purdue Fort Wayne
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.9#149
Expected Predictive Rating+0.8#157
Pace73.7#54
Improvement-0.8#228

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#85
First Shot+4.6#60
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#263
Layup/Dunks-2.3#268
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#215
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.7#9
Freethrows-0.1#181
Improvement-1.7#287

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#247
First Shot-3.7#289
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#83
Layups/Dunks-2.0#259
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#186
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#327
Freethrows+2.3#42
Improvement+0.9#140
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.2% 21.9% 16.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 15.1% 19.0% 6.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round20.2% 21.9% 16.4%
Second Round1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wright St. (Home) - 69.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 35 - 46 - 8
Quad 414 - 420 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 62   @ Central Florida L 68-75 16%     0 - 1 +4.4 -1.9 +6.5
  Nov 12, 2024 279   Bethune-Cookman W 91-69 82%     1 - 1 +13.0 +12.3 -0.5
  Nov 16, 2024 324   Southern Indiana W 93-74 89%     2 - 1 +6.5 +16.5 -9.5
  Nov 20, 2024 50   @ Penn St. L 89-102 14%     2 - 2 -0.3 +19.0 -18.9
  Nov 25, 2024 195   Drexel W 87-81 59%     3 - 2 +4.4 +22.1 -17.2
  Nov 26, 2024 204   Radford L 56-69 61%     3 - 3 -15.1 -15.9 -0.2
  Nov 30, 2024 343   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 77-57 83%     4 - 3 +10.7 +6.7 +5.4
  Dec 05, 2024 323   @ Detroit Mercy L 78-79 79%     4 - 4 0 - 1 -8.5 +5.9 -14.4
  Dec 08, 2024 194   Robert Morris W 82-77 68%     5 - 4 1 - 1 +0.9 -1.6 +2.0
  Dec 11, 2024 330   IU Indianapolis W 78-76 90%     6 - 4 2 - 1 -11.1 -2.6 -8.4
  Dec 15, 2024 300   @ Eastern Michigan W 121-94 72%     7 - 4 +21.7 +22.9 -6.0
  Dec 22, 2024 18   @ Michigan L 58-89 6%     7 - 5 -12.4 -6.2 -6.2
  Dec 29, 2024 347   @ Green Bay W 83-67 84%     8 - 5 3 - 1 +6.5 +7.6 -0.4
  Jan 01, 2025 244   @ Northern Kentucky L 68-69 OT 63%     8 - 6 3 - 2 -3.4 -2.3 -1.1
  Jan 04, 2025 219   Youngstown St. W 90-81 74%     9 - 6 4 - 2 +3.3 +5.3 -3.2
  Jan 08, 2025 133   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 78-73 57%     10 - 6 5 - 2 +4.1 -3.9 +7.5
  Jan 11, 2025 323   Detroit Mercy W 90-67 89%     11 - 6 6 - 2 +10.6 +19.0 -7.1
  Jan 15, 2025 196   @ Wright St. W 120-113 2OT 50%     12 - 6 7 - 2 +7.8 +17.3 -11.1
  Jan 22, 2025 188   @ Oakland L 72-76 49%     12 - 7 7 - 3 -2.9 +8.6 -12.0
  Jan 25, 2025 330   @ IU Indianapolis W 91-80 80%     13 - 7 8 - 3 +2.9 +8.8 -6.1
  Jan 30, 2025 157   Cleveland St. L 58-68 61%     13 - 8 8 - 4 -12.0 -8.8 -4.1
  Feb 02, 2025 133   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 81-79 38%     14 - 8 9 - 4 +6.1 +6.2 -0.2
  Feb 05, 2025 196   Wright St. W 84-79 70%    
  Feb 08, 2025 347   Green Bay W 87-72 93%    
  Feb 12, 2025 219   @ Youngstown St. W 79-77 54%    
  Feb 15, 2025 194   @ Robert Morris L 78-79 48%    
  Feb 21, 2025 188   Oakland W 75-70 69%    
  Feb 27, 2025 244   Northern Kentucky W 77-69 80%    
  Mar 01, 2025 157   @ Cleveland St. L 74-76 41%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 3.1 7.3 4.4 15.1 1st
2nd 0.5 9.3 20.2 10.2 0.9 41.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 4.7 14.3 5.7 0.4 25.1 3rd
4th 0.8 7.1 2.7 0.1 10.7 4th
5th 0.0 2.1 3.0 0.1 5.2 5th
6th 0.3 1.5 0.2 2.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.7 4.9 15.5 26.6 29.1 17.9 5.3 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 83.5% 4.4    2.8 1.5 0.1
15-5 41.0% 7.3    2.5 4.0 0.9
14-6 10.8% 3.1    0.3 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 15.1% 15.1 5.6 6.8 2.4 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 5.3% 30.7% 30.7% 12.8 0.5 0.9 0.2 3.7
15-5 17.9% 26.8% 26.8% 13.6 0.2 1.8 2.5 0.3 0.0 13.1
14-6 29.1% 22.3% 22.3% 14.1 0.0 1.2 3.5 1.7 0.0 22.6
13-7 26.6% 17.2% 17.2% 14.4 0.0 0.3 2.3 1.9 0.1 22.0
12-8 15.5% 14.9% 14.9% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.1 13.2
11-9 4.9% 8.1% 8.1% 14.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 4.5
10-10 0.7% 7.4% 7.4% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.6
9-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 20.2% 20.2% 0.0% 14.0 0.7 4.2 9.5 5.5 0.3 79.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 12.8 31.5 53.7 14.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5%