Purdue Fort Wayne
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.6 #243
Expected Predictive Rating -1.0 #183
Pace 71.0 #128
Improvement +0.1 #178

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #224 C F B D B-
Defense #251 D F A- B D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #185 1.19 #140 +0.4 #163
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #302 0.64 #308 -3.0 #320
Three Pointers 47% #64 1.00 #204 +2.8 #98
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #178 +0.2 #179
Freethrows 14.5 #316 72% #198 10.5 #305
Second Chance 23.1% #344 1.00 #238 0.23 #339
Turnovers 14.9% #76
Total Offense -2.2 #224

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #259 1.22 #261 +0.6 #157
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #343 0.68 #88 +2.9 #12
Three Pointers 50% #15 1.12 #310 -7.4 #359
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #300 -3.9 #299
Freethrows 13.4 #29 80% #360 10.7 #300
Second Chance 36.2% #340 1.12 #280 0.41 #337
Turnovers 19.7% #42
Total Defense -2.4 #251

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #87 1.3% #283
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.2% #189 6.3% #295
Possession Length 17.3 #175 17.0 #137
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #143 0.17 #167
Improvement -2.7 #326 +2.7 #41

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.2% 5.4% 3.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 38.2% 56.1% 30.0%
.500 or above in Conference 63.9% 81.6% 55.8%
Conference Champion 1.5% 3.3% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.5%
First Round4.0% 5.3% 3.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Robert Morris (Away) - 31.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 20 - 21 - 5
Quad 33 - 64 - 10
Quad 410 - 514 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 83 @Grand Canyon L 71 - 90 9%  -15  0 - 1 -9 +1 C D+ B- -8 F F B+
 Fri, Nov 7 30 @Ohio St. L 68 - 94 3%  -14  0 - 2 -9 -1 C C C- -7 F F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 265 @Western Michigan L 71 - 83 44%  -1  0 - 3 -15 -10 F F B- -4 C- D B-
 Tue, Nov 18 117 @Utah L 77 - 85 15%  -9  0 - 4 -2 +10 B+ C- C -12 F B+ B-
 Fri, Nov 21 29 @Saint Louis L 60 - 91 3%  -19  0 - 5 -14 -4 F C- C -9 F C A+
 Tue, Nov 25 353 Chicago St. W 90 - 77 86%  +4  1 - 5 -3 +12 A+ F F -14 F F A+
 Wed, Dec 3 124 @Oakland L 92 - 101 18%  -8  1 - 6 0 - 1 -4 +9 B- D- A+ -12 F D B-
 Sat, Dec 6 174 Northern Kentucky W 79 - 77 48%  -2  2 - 6 1 - 1 -2 -2 A F F -1 C B- A+
 Wed, Dec 10 197 Eastern Michigan W 80 - 65 52%  +12  3 - 6 +10 +11 C A+ B -0 F B+ C
 Sun, Dec 14 281 Detroit Mercy W 81 - 77 69%  +2  4 - 6 2 - 1 -6 +4 C+ F A+ -10 C- D D
 Sun, Dec 21 59 @Notre Dame W 72 - 69 7%  +4  5 - 6 +15 +7 B+ F A- +8 A B- A+
 Mon, Dec 29 226 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 55 - 77 35%  -19  5 - 7 2 - 2 -23 -18 F F C+ -6 C F A+
 Thu, Jan 1 249 Green Bay L 54 - 72 63%  -10  5 - 8 2 - 3 -26 -17 F F F -11 D- F B-
 Sun, Jan 4 321 Cleveland St. W 74 - 71 78%  -4  6 - 8 3 - 3 -10 -5 D F B -5 B+ F B+
 Wed, Jan 7 210 @Youngstown St. W 71 - 69 31%  +0  7 - 8 4 - 3 +2 +3 C+ F B+ -1 A+ F A+
 Sun, Jan 11 206 @Robert Morris L 71 - 76 31% 
 Sun, Jan 18 226 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 79 - 77 57% 
 Wed, Jan 21 281 @Detroit Mercy L 76 - 77 46% 
 Sun, Jan 25 355 @IU Indianapolis W 88 - 82 70% 
 Wed, Jan 28 124 Oakland L 81 - 85 36% 
 Sat, Jan 31 206 Robert Morris W 74 - 73 53% 
 Wed, Feb 4 210 Youngstown St. W 74 - 73 54% 
 Sat, Feb 7 148 @Wright St. L 70 - 78 23% 
 Thu, Feb 12 249 @Green Bay L 71 - 74 40% 
 Sun, Feb 15 355 IU Indianapolis W 91 - 79 86% 
 Wed, Feb 18 174 @Northern Kentucky L 73 - 79 27% 
 Sun, Feb 22 321 @Cleveland St. W 80 - 78 58% 
 Wed, Feb 25 148 Wright St. L 73 - 75 43% 
Totals 13 - 15 10 - 10 -5 -2 C F B -2 D F A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.1 0.6 0.1 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.9 4.4 1.2 0.1 10.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 5.5 6.6 1.5 0.1 14.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.8 7.9 2.4 0.1 16.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 4.1 8.4 3.4 0.2 16.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.2 7.2 4.2 0.4 15.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.7 3.6 0.5 0.0 12.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.0 2.2 0.3 0.0 7.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 2.1 6.1 11.5 15.8 18.7 18.0 13.5 8.0 4.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 75.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1
15-5 49.2% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 13.6% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.3% 3.4% 3.4% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-5 1.3% 16.2% 16.2% 13.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1
14-6 4.0% 12.3% 12.3% 14.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 3.5
13-7 8.0% 9.4% 9.4% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 7.3
12-8 13.5% 6.8% 6.8% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.1 12.6
11-9 18.0% 4.5% 4.5% 15.2 0.0 0.6 0.2 17.2
10-10 18.7% 3.3% 3.3% 15.5 0.3 0.3 18.1
9-11 15.8% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.2 15.6
8-12 11.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 11.4
7-13 6.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 6.0
6-14 2.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.1
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 14.9 95.8 0.0%