Rider
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -12.7 #352
Expected Predictive Rating -18.6 #358
Pace 63.9 #307
Improvement +3.0 #63

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #326 F+ C- D+ D+ F+
Defense #344 D- C- F+ B- F+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #194 0.98 #350 -3.8 #306
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% #11 0.72 #235 +4.4 #20
Three Pointers 29% #361 0.83 #360 -9.0 #361
1st FG Attempt 0.85 #362 -8.4 #362
Freethrows 0.27 #273 71% #235 0.19 #273
Second Chance 32.1% #138 0.90 #326 0.29 #230
Turnovers 18.0% #266
Total Offense -6.1 #326

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #15 1.15 #173 -4.5 #326
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #355 0.88 #340 +1.8 #51
Three Pointers 40% #213 1.17 #353 -2.7 #299
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #332 -5.3 #331
Freethrows 0.28 #119 66% #6 0.19 #60
Second Chance 32.0% #242 1.05 #216 0.33 #240
Turnovers 12.5% #355
Total Defense -6.6 #344

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.4% #347 2.9% #362
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -13.7% #357 7.4% #313
Possession Length 19.4 #351 16.5 #56
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #291 0.23 #340
Improvement +7.5 #2 -4.6 #354

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 60.6% 35.2% 62.5%
First Four0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marist (Away) - 6.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 00 - 4
Quad 30 - 70 - 11
Quad 44 - 134 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 25 @Virginia L 53 - 87 1% -17  0 - 1 -15 -7 D C F -11 C+ F F
 Wed, Nov 5 114 @Rutgers L 53 - 81 5% -14  0 - 2 -22 -14 F C D- -9 C- C- F
 Tue, Nov 18 31 @Texas L 65 - 99 1% -18  0 - 3 -16 -7 F C- C- -7 F A+ F
 Thu, Nov 20 6 @Houston L 45 - 91 0% -25  0 - 4 -21 -14 F D F -9 F A+ D+
 Tue, Nov 25 364 Coppin St. L 65 - 68 84% +5  0 - 5 -26 -20 F F F+ -6 C- D- C-
 Thu, Dec 4 201 @Merrimack L 66 - 68 11% -1  0 - 6 0 - 1 -2 +3 C- A+ F -4 F B+ D-
 Sun, Dec 7 186 @Quinnipiac L 58 - 72 10% -15  0 - 7 0 - 2 -13 -12 F D D- -1 B- D- F+
 Tue, Dec 9 315 Bucknell L 38 - 51 49% -8  0 - 8 -25 -34 F F F +7 B- A D+
 Tue, Dec 16 286 @Delaware L 57 - 65 21% -6  0 - 9 -12 -10 F A C -3 C C+ F+
 Mon, Dec 22 50 @Virginia Commonwealth L 79 - 100 2% -11  0 - 10 -8 +8 D+ A+ B -15 F F D+
 Mon, Dec 29 327 Manhattan L 71 - 74 52% +2  0 - 11 0 - 3 -16 -6 F C+ D- -10 C F+ C-
 Sun, Jan 4 174 Siena L 65 - 74 21% -7  0 - 12 0 - 4 -13 +1 D+ D- A+ -15 C F B-
 Fri, Jan 9 272 @Fairfield L 62 - 68 19% -8  0 - 13 0 - 5 -9 -6 D+ F C- -4 A+ F F
 Sun, Jan 11 161 Marist L 49 - 71 19% -12  0 - 14 0 - 6 -25 -17 F D- C+ -9 F+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 231 Iona W 72 - 68 29% +7  1 - 14 1 - 6 -3 +9 C- A+ C -11 C- B- F
 Sat, Jan 17 235 @St. Peter's L 58 - 69 14% -4  1 - 15 1 - 7 -12 -6 F B+ F -7 F+ F+ D-
 Mon, Jan 19 276 Sacred Heart L 85 - 105 37% -12  1 - 16 1 - 8 -29 -3 D+ F A- -25 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 289 @Mount St. Mary's L 61 - 71 21% -0  1 - 17 1 - 9 -14 -2 F A+ C+ -14 F D+ D
 Fri, Jan 30 327 @Manhattan L 90 - 95 30% -2  1 - 18 1 - 10 -12 +14 C C+ A+ -27 F D+ F+
 Sun, Feb 1 235 St. Peter's W 81 - 78 29% -6  2 - 18 2 - 10 -4 +12 A+ F B -16 D- F F
 Thu, Feb 5 161 @Marist L 58 - 73 7%
 Sat, Feb 7 201 Merrimack L 63 - 70 25%
 Fri, Feb 13 289 Mount St. Mary's L 68 - 70 41%
 Sun, Feb 15 276 @Sacred Heart L 71 - 80 18%
 Fri, Feb 20 345 Canisius W 68 - 66 57%
 Sun, Feb 22 349 Niagara W 67 - 65 59%
 Fri, Feb 27 231 @Iona L 66 - 78 14%
 Sun, Mar 1 174 @Siena L 62 - 77 9%
Totals 4 - 24 4 - 16 -13 -6 F+ C- D+ -7 D- C- F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.3 2.3 1.7 0.2 4.5 10th
11th 2.2 10.3 7.9 1.4 0.0 21.8 11th
12th 3.3 16.1 13.1 1.9 0.0 34.4 12th
13th 6.1 17.3 13.0 1.9 0.0 38.3 13th
Total 6.1 20.6 31.3 25.5 12.2 3.6 0.6 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 0.1% 0.1
8-12 0.6% 0.6
7-13 3.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.6
6-14 12.2% 12.2
5-15 25.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 25.5
4-16 31.3% 31.3
3-17 20.6% 20.6
2-18 6.1% 6.1
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 6.1%