Rider
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.8#303
Expected Predictive Rating-8.1#298
Pace62.5#335
Improvement-5.2#357

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#278
First Shot-8.4#353
After Offensive Rebound+4.7#8
Layup/Dunks-5.6#343
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.7#5
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.7#358
Freethrows-0.8#231
Improvement-1.1#263

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#302
First Shot-2.9#274
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#285
Layups/Dunks-1.6#237
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#150
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#334
Freethrows+2.4#36
Improvement-4.2#361
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 2.9% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 10.1% 14.4% 4.5%
.500 or above in Conference 26.2% 35.1% 14.9%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.3% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 14.4% 8.7% 21.5%
First Four1.5% 1.9% 1.0%
First Round1.5% 1.9% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Manhattan (Home) - 56.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 31 - 41 - 8
Quad 411 - 1212 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 20   @ UCLA L 50-85 2%     0 - 1 -17.1 -6.5 -13.7
  Nov 06, 2024 316   @ San Diego W 68-67 42%     1 - 1 -4.9 -5.3 +0.4
  Nov 09, 2024 362   @ Coppin St. W 64-53 73%     2 - 1 -3.1 -10.2 +7.4
  Nov 12, 2024 318   @ Navy W 90-79 43%     3 - 1 +5.1 +14.9 -9.6
  Nov 19, 2024 43   @ Iowa L 58-83 3%     3 - 2 -10.6 -12.4 +2.6
  Nov 23, 2024 266   @ Bucknell W 57-53 31%     4 - 2 +1.4 -5.6 +7.6
  Nov 27, 2024 52   @ Villanova L 48-72 4%     4 - 3 -10.6 -14.3 -0.7
  Nov 30, 2024 215   Delaware L 66-72 42%     4 - 4 -11.7 -3.9 -8.4
  Dec 04, 2024 297   @ Fairfield L 75-78 37%     4 - 5 0 - 1 -7.4 +2.3 -9.9
  Dec 06, 2024 249   Quinnipiac L 67-72 50%     4 - 6 0 - 2 -12.8 -2.6 -10.7
  Dec 14, 2024 306   Stony Brook L 55-72 62%     4 - 7 -28.0 -13.9 -17.3
  Dec 20, 2024 292   @ Penn L 66-79 36%     4 - 8 -17.0 -1.4 -17.3
  Dec 22, 2024 79   @ North Carolina St. L 63-89 6%     4 - 9 -15.7 -1.9 -15.0
  Jan 05, 2025 279   Manhattan W 73-71 56%    
  Jan 10, 2025 353   @ Canisius W 70-68 57%    
  Jan 12, 2025 320   @ Niagara L 65-67 43%    
  Jan 16, 2025 234   Mount St. Mary's L 69-70 47%    
  Jan 18, 2025 231   @ Marist L 61-68 25%    
  Jan 23, 2025 247   Iona L 68-69 50%    
  Jan 25, 2025 249   @ Quinnipiac L 69-75 29%    
  Jan 31, 2025 206   St. Peter's L 62-65 40%    
  Feb 02, 2025 195   Merrimack L 63-66 39%    
  Feb 06, 2025 295   @ Sacred Heart L 69-73 37%    
  Feb 08, 2025 304   Siena W 66-63 61%    
  Feb 14, 2025 247   @ Iona L 65-71 29%    
  Feb 16, 2025 206   @ St. Peter's L 59-68 22%    
  Feb 21, 2025 297   Fairfield W 72-69 59%    
  Feb 23, 2025 234   @ Mount St. Mary's L 66-73 27%    
  Feb 28, 2025 195   @ Merrimack L 60-69 21%    
  Mar 06, 2025 353   Canisius W 73-65 76%    
  Mar 08, 2025 320   Niagara W 68-64 65%    
Projected Record 12 - 19 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 2.8 0.8 0.0 5.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.8 2.2 0.1 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.5 3.8 0.5 0.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.2 1.4 0.0 9.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.4 6.0 3.0 0.2 0.0 11.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.7 4.3 0.6 0.0 12.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.5 4.9 1.1 0.0 13.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.8 5.0 4.3 1.2 0.1 14.1 12th
13th 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 2.6 1.8 0.5 0.0 8.4 13th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.8 5.7 8.9 12.4 14.5 14.7 13.2 10.6 7.4 4.3 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 89.9% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 59.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 28.4% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 5.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 21.7% 21.7% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.4% 21.0% 21.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-6 1.0% 15.3% 15.3% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.9
13-7 2.3% 9.8% 9.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.1
12-8 4.3% 9.8% 9.8% 15.9 0.0 0.4 3.9
11-9 7.4% 5.3% 5.3% 15.9 0.0 0.4 7.0
10-10 10.6% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 10.3
9-11 13.2% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 13.0
8-12 14.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 14.5
7-13 14.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 14.4
6-14 12.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.4
5-15 8.9% 8.9
4-16 5.7% 5.7
3-17 2.8% 2.8
2-18 1.1% 1.1
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.0 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%