Rider
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -12.3 #348
Expected Predictive Rating -26.6 #365
Pace 63.4 #326
Improvement +2.7 #53

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #355 F D+ D D- F
Defense #292 D+ D+ F B- F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #247 0.94 #358 -5.4 #337
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% #14 0.76 #166 +4.5 #19
Three Pointers 32% #337 0.75 #364 -8.9 #362
1st FG Attempt 0.82 #363 -9.8 #363
Freethrows 14.7 #309 70% #251 10.4 #309
Second Chance 31.5% #156 0.91 #322 0.29 #257
Turnovers 18.5% #286
Total Offense -8.5 #355

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 49% #4 1.12 #127 -5.1 #334
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #363 0.98 #363 +1.8 #68
Three Pointers 39% #238 1.05 #242 +0.2 #174
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #278 -3.1 #280
Freethrows 17.2 #178 66% #9 11.3 #272
Second Chance 33.3% #279 1.07 #218 0.36 #262
Turnovers 13.0% #349
Total Defense -3.7 #292

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.3% #339 3.8% #364
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -16.7% #362 2.2% #223
Possession Length 19.4 #350 16.5 #65
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #285 0.21 #305
Improvement +2.5 #39 +0.2 #168

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.0% 3.5% 0.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 57.8% 38.6% 61.5%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marist (Home) - 16.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 60 - 11
Quad 44 - 135 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 22 @Virginia L 53 - 87 1%  -17  0 - 1 -15 -7 D- D F -12 B- F F
 Wed, Nov 5 131 @Rutgers L 53 - 81 6%  -14  0 - 2 -23 -14 F C- F -10 F C- F
 Tue, Nov 18 45 @Texas L 65 - 99 2%  -18  0 - 3 -20 -8 F D+ D+ -10 F A+ F
 Thu, Nov 20 11 @Houston L 45 - 91 0%  -25  0 - 4 -24 -14 F C F -11 F A+ D-
 Tue, Nov 25 364 Coppin St. L 65 - 68 84%  +5  0 - 5 -26 -18 F F F -8 D+ F C
 Thu, Dec 4 237 @Merrimack L 66 - 68 15%  -1  0 - 6 0 - 1 -3 +1 D+ A+ F -5 F B F
 Sun, Dec 7 158 @Quinnipiac L 58 - 72 9%  -15  0 - 7 0 - 2 -11 -11 F F D- -1 B- D F
 Tue, Dec 9 314 Bucknell L 38 - 51 50%  -6  0 - 8 -25 -32 F F F +5 D- A+ B-
 Tue, Dec 16 277 @Delaware L 57 - 65 21%  -6  0 - 9 -12 -9 F A+ C -4 C+ C+ F
 Mon, Dec 22 49 @Virginia Commonwealth L 79 - 100 2%  -11  0 - 10 -7 +10 D+ A+ B+ -17 F F D-
 Mon, Dec 29 311 Manhattan L 71 - 74 49%  +2  0 - 11 0 - 3 -15 -5 F C+ D- -10 C+ F D+
 Sun, Jan 4 190 Siena L 65 - 74 24%  -7  0 - 12 0 - 4 -14 +1 D+ F A+ -17 D+ F C+
 Fri, Jan 9 282 @Fairfield L 62 - 68 21%  -8  0 - 13 0 - 5 -10 -7 D+ F D- -3 A+ F F
 Sun, Jan 11 140 Marist L 57 - 67 16% 
 Wed, Jan 14 214 Iona L 68 - 74 27% 
 Sat, Jan 17 259 @St. Peter's L 59 - 69 18% 
 Mon, Jan 19 285 Sacred Heart L 70 - 72 40% 
 Sat, Jan 24 292 @Mount St. Mary's L 63 - 71 23% 
 Fri, Jan 30 311 @Manhattan L 68 - 74 28% 
 Sun, Feb 1 259 St. Peter's L 62 - 66 37% 
 Thu, Feb 5 140 @Marist L 54 - 70 6% 
 Sat, Feb 7 237 Merrimack L 62 - 67 32% 
 Fri, Feb 13 292 Mount St. Mary's L 66 - 68 43% 
 Sun, Feb 15 285 @Sacred Heart L 67 - 75 22% 
 Fri, Feb 20 331 Canisius W 65 - 64 55% 
 Sun, Feb 22 354 Niagara W 66 - 62 64% 
 Fri, Feb 27 214 @Iona L 65 - 77 13% 
 Sun, Mar 1 190 @Siena L 59 - 72 11% 
Totals 4 - 24 4 - 16 -12 -9 F D+ D -4 D+ D+ F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.1 2.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.7 0.3 4.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.6 3.3 0.8 0.0 7.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 3.8 6.0 2.1 0.1 12.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.9 4.2 9.4 10.1 3.8 0.3 0.0 28.8 12th
13th 1.0 5.2 10.6 13.1 9.4 3.1 0.4 42.8 13th
Total 1.0 5.3 11.5 17.3 19.6 17.3 13.1 7.8 4.1 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.1
11-9 0.2% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
10-10 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7
9-11 2.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.0
8-12 4.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.1
7-13 7.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.8
6-14 13.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.1
5-15 17.3% 17.3
4-16 19.6% 19.6
3-17 17.3% 17.3
2-18 11.5% 11.5
1-19 5.3% 5.3
0-20 1.0% 1.0
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.0%