Rider
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.0#303
Expected Predictive Rating-7.7#292
Pace63.7#301
Improvement+0.7#160

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#275
First Shot-8.5#358
After Offensive Rebound+4.7#6
Layup/Dunks-5.7#345
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#4
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.8#360
Freethrows-0.8#234
Improvement+1.3#115

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#297
First Shot-3.1#276
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#280
Layups/Dunks-1.9#252
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#161
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#322
Freethrows+2.3#44
Improvement-0.6#219
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.5% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 2.5% 5.6% 0.8%
.500 or above in Conference 17.6% 33.1% 9.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 0.8% 4.7%
First Four1.7% 2.2% 1.4%
First Round1.0% 1.4% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacred Heart (Away) - 35.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 32 - 32 - 7
Quad 411 - 1313 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 29   @ UCLA L 50-85 2%     0 - 1 -18.2 -9.2 -12.0
  Nov 06, 2024 311   @ San Diego W 68-67 43%     1 - 1 -5.1 -6.8 +1.7
  Nov 09, 2024 362   @ Coppin St. W 64-53 76%     2 - 1 -4.3 -10.5 +6.5
  Nov 12, 2024 263   @ Navy W 90-79 32%     3 - 1 +7.8 +16.9 -9.0
  Nov 19, 2024 60   @ Iowa L 58-83 4%     3 - 2 -13.1 -14.5 +2.0
  Nov 23, 2024 251   @ Bucknell W 57-53 31%     4 - 2 +1.2 -7.0 +8.8
  Nov 27, 2024 46   @ Villanova L 48-72 3%     4 - 3 -10.6 -12.4 -2.5
  Nov 30, 2024 232   Delaware L 66-72 45%     4 - 4 -12.6 -6.0 -7.4
  Dec 04, 2024 326   @ Fairfield L 75-78 49%     4 - 5 0 - 1 -10.7 +1.0 -11.9
  Dec 06, 2024 187   Quinnipiac L 67-72 34%     4 - 6 0 - 2 -8.8 +0.9 -10.2
  Dec 14, 2024 318   Stony Brook L 55-72 64%     4 - 7 -28.7 -14.8 -17.1
  Dec 20, 2024 273   @ Penn L 66-79 34%     4 - 8 -16.8 -2.0 -16.5
  Dec 22, 2024 91   @ North Carolina St. L 63-89 7%     4 - 9 -17.4 -2.1 -16.4
  Jan 05, 2025 271   Manhattan L 79-80 53%     4 - 10 0 - 3 -9.7 +2.0 -11.7
  Jan 10, 2025 352   @ Canisius L 67-85 60%     4 - 11 0 - 4 -28.5 -5.3 -25.4
  Jan 12, 2025 316   @ Niagara W 68-65 45%     5 - 11 1 - 4 -3.6 -0.9 -2.3
  Jan 16, 2025 260   Mount St. Mary's W 66-60 50%     6 - 11 2 - 4 -2.1 -12.6 +10.2
  Jan 18, 2025 211   @ Marist W 64-57 23%     7 - 11 3 - 4 +6.8 +0.2 +7.2
  Jan 23, 2025 256   Iona L 67-73 50%     7 - 12 3 - 5 -14.0 -4.5 -9.7
  Jan 25, 2025 187   @ Quinnipiac L 64-75 19%     7 - 13 3 - 6 -9.8 -3.7 -6.6
  Jan 31, 2025 272   St. Peter's W 67-64 53%     8 - 13 4 - 6 -5.7 +5.7 -10.9
  Feb 02, 2025 198   Merrimack L 64-66 36%     8 - 14 4 - 7 -6.2 -1.1 -5.3
  Feb 06, 2025 288   @ Sacred Heart L 72-76 35%    
  Feb 08, 2025 246   Siena L 67-68 50%    
  Feb 14, 2025 256   @ Iona L 66-71 31%    
  Feb 16, 2025 272   @ St. Peter's L 60-64 32%    
  Feb 21, 2025 326   Fairfield W 73-68 68%    
  Feb 23, 2025 260   @ Mount St. Mary's L 66-71 31%    
  Feb 28, 2025 198   @ Merrimack L 59-68 20%    
  Mar 06, 2025 352   Canisius W 74-67 77%    
  Mar 08, 2025 316   Niagara W 69-65 66%    
Projected Record 12 - 19 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.8 0.1 3.0 4th
5th 0.3 2.8 2.3 0.1 5.5 5th
6th 0.1 3.1 5.0 0.8 8.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 8.2 2.8 0.1 12.3 7th
8th 0.6 7.4 8.2 0.6 16.7 8th
9th 0.2 5.6 12.0 2.0 0.0 19.8 9th
10th 0.0 2.4 9.3 4.2 0.1 15.9 10th
11th 0.8 5.2 4.8 0.3 11.1 11th
12th 0.2 2.0 3.1 0.4 0.0 5.6 12th
13th 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.0 13th
Total 0.5 3.4 10.9 20.7 25.1 21.9 11.6 4.9 1.0 0.2 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 5.6% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-8 1.0% 11.7% 11.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.9
11-9 4.9% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.2 4.6
10-10 11.6% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.4 11.1
9-11 21.9% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.4 21.4
8-12 25.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.3 24.8
7-13 20.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 20.5
6-14 10.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.8
5-15 3.4% 3.4
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.8 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%